The bubble is bursting—what a relief!

[hgmichna]

About time.

Now the interesting question is, at what price level will we see the first major bull trap?

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[humanitee]

Another idiotic bubble post.

Congratulations OP, you are just as retarded as the others.

[NamelessOne]

Another idiotic bubble post.

Congratulations OP, you are just as retarded as the others.

Agreed.

[wopwop]

sigh just chance to get cheap coins

[ehoffman]

Something tell me that all the replies to OP above are the bulls that are loosing money...

[hgmichna]

Something tell me that all the replies to OP above are the bulls that are loosing money...

There certainly are some mad guys who don't see the light even if it shines directly into their eyes.

The good thing about a bursting bubble is that the idiots who contributed to giving bitcoin a bad name by trying to drive its price to the moon are now flushed out of the system.

Interesting questions:

Where will the first big bull trap be?

How fast will the price decline?

How low will the price go?

I guess the bust will take at least 6 months, possibly a year, perhaps even longer.

[humanitee]

Something tell me that all the replies to OP above are the bulls that are loosing money...

Losing*

OP is an idiot because he just makes the same post I've seen 9000x without any reasoning.
Must be a bubble therefore it is.

OP must be an idiot, therefore he is.

[sgbett]

Something tell me that all the replies to OP above are the bulls that are loosing money...

There certainly are some mad guys who don't see the light even if it shines directly into their eyes.

The good thing about a bursting bubble is that the idiots who contributed to giving bitcoin a bad name by trying to drive its price to the moon are now flushed out of the system.

Interesting questions:

Where will the first big bull trap be?

How fast will the price decline?

How low will the price go?

I guess the bust will take at least 6 months, possibly a year, perhaps even longer.

The most likely thing is that the market won't do what everyone thinks it will. I think it will be a correction, significant, but not 'back to single digits apocolypse'. Suspect we might see a slide back into the 100's, but I think any decline will be short lived as there are still an awful lot of people in the world that need to buy in, and the monetization of bitcoin is far from over.

[hgmichna]

The most likely thing is that the market won't do what everyone thinks it will. I think it will be a correction, significant, but not 'back to single digits apocolypse'. Suspect we might see a slide back into the 100's, but I think any decline will be short lived as there are still an awful lot of people in the world that need to buy in, and the monetization of bitcoin is far from over.

The fundamentals point to a decline towards some $20. In fact, single digits would not really surprise me either.

I also think that the price decline will take more than 6 months, perhaps more than a year.

I agree that this will not kill bitcoin completely. It does damage to its reputation though.

[hgmichna]

The sell-off mechanics are interesting to watch. As expected, Mt. Gox cannot cope and now has half an hour lag.

This means that people cannot risk limited sell orders, they have to try to enter unlimited orders to have any chance of selling their rapidly shrinking bitcoins.

This accelerates the slide and makes it even more unpredictable than it already is. I guess it will take quite a while until Mt. Gox can process all pending orders, those pending inside their system and those could not even be entered yet.

The price is going below $200 already, which is an extremely rapid decline.

[axus]

Which fundamentals?  I'd love to see your calculations, to maybe give a hint at which price I should buy in at.

The most likely thing is that the market won't do what everyone thinks it will. I think it will be a correction, significant, but not 'back to single digits apocolypse'. Suspect we might see a slide back into the 100's, but I think any decline will be short lived as there are still an awful lot of people in the world that need to buy in, and the monetization of bitcoin is far from over.

The fundamentals point to a decline towards some $20. In fact, single digits would not really surprise me either.

I also think that the price decline will take more than 6 months, perhaps more than a year.

I agree that this will not kill bitcoin completely. It does damage to its reputation though.

[hgmichna]

I agree. Correction is just a correction. It doesn't mean a crash caused by a fatal flaw in the protocol. It will be short lived because Bitcoin is extremely necessary for wealth preservation. The fundamentals for using Bitcoin have not changed. Just like the fundamentals for Gold have not changed. Truly smart money will be waiting to pile in if we see a massive correction.

The trouble with wealth preservation is that bitcoin is based on nothing, except some people on Silk Road, SatoshiDice, etc., who actually need bitcoins to pay for something real.

This means that, if the price sinks, like it does now and will keep doing for a while, save the occasional bull trap, the wealth preservers will observe that their wealth is not preserved. Then they have to sell too, after the speculators have shed their bitcoins.

Bitcoin does not yet have the reputation of gold, unfortunately. That would take many more years.

That said, we cannot be quite certain what the price will do over the next days. Currently we still have a low volume movement. If somebody sold 100,000 bitcoins right now, the price would be at $20. Conversely, a large buy order could catapult the price to $300.

I tend to believe that the bubble has burst today, and we will not see $200+ prices for another year. But, of course, I cannot predict the future with certainty in such a small market that could all too easily be moved by a single order.

[Anon136]

I agree. Correction is just a correction. It doesn't mean a crash caused by a fatal flaw in the protocol. It will be short lived because Bitcoin is extremely necessary for wealth preservation. The fundamentals for using Bitcoin have not changed. Just like the fundamentals for Gold have not changed. Truly smart money will be waiting to pile in if we see a massive correction.

The trouble with wealth preservation is that bitcoin is based on nothing, except some people on Silk Road, SatoshiDice, etc., who actually need bitcoins to pay for something real.

most of its value comes from people speculating on future utility. A small fraction comes from present utility.

[wojtek]

most annoying thing about bubble is that:
idiots say "BUY bUY buy it will go up", an price goes up, so they are right and look smart
smart people who understand how risky it is, seems to be stupid, because they say it will burst any time, and it is not bursting (yet)
this is very sad state for all reasonable people.
but it dosn't last forever.

now it is time for money to flow in correct direction, from stupid (who buy high and will be forced to sell low) to smart (who buy low, sell high).

i sold at 42usd with huge profit (i know bit too early, i should wait for 100usd), and now i will buy at 15 usd, or maybe 5usd or maybe 1usd.

i know some people do not believe yet what they see with their naked eyes. but after we see price dropping every day for next days/weeks, they will finally realize.

[donut]

I call the bottom at no lower than $115, and a rebound to $220 by tomorrow morning.

[drdanishkhan]

Already went down to 109 $..
Mtgox lag is unbearable.. fucking idiots..

[Luno]

OMG, Call Ben Bernanke, the Dollar is going through the roof. He have to start the money press or the DOW will crash and investors fleeing to Asia and Europe..!!!

[AngelusWebDesign]

I agree -- Mt. Gox needs to get their act together.

I had a buy order for $184 x 2 bitcoins.

It got filled since "Cancel" didn't work!

[BitcoinAshley]

Lol, OP must be new here, doesn't realize that there are 500 other threads exactly like this one spanning the last 2 years.

Every time a big correction happens the weak hands get shaken out, the "OMG BUBBLE JUST BURST, I TOLD YOU SO!" threads get started. Of course now, demand is much higher so rather than a many-month recovery (from the July 2011 peak) we'll get a week tops.

Thanks for the cheap coins, everyone! If anything, the fundamentals show that bitcoin is now resilient to crap like this and your wishful thinking of a 6-month recovery in the double digits is just jealousy of all the people who bought in earlier. Don't be jel-jel that this "huge" bubble bursting made a logarithmically tiny dent in my portfolio and your $262 coins got taken down a notch ;-D. Just take a deep breath and look at the dozens of other recent bear traps - don't do anything silly like eat your leg off to escape; those bears don't make it far.

If you think the "fundamentals" show bitcoin having a limp dick for the next 6 months because of Goxlag, you need to lurk moar.

[hgmichna]

OK, my first question is already being answered, the one about the first major bull trap. We are in it right now.

The price went a bit lower than donut's prediction:

I call the bottom at no lower than $115, and a rebound to $220 by tomorrow morning.

Ultimately he was wrong, because he predicted a bottom above $115, but the price went somewhat lower. Still his prediction was pretty close to the truth so far.

Let's see whether he will be right with the $220 peak. That is not easy to predict. I tend to think that $220 is a bit on the high side as well, but we have seen bull traps that even slightly exceeded the preceding peak. We will know soon.

It is easy to predict that the price will generally decline for a long time now, i.e. months or even years. What we don't know is how low it will go. I foresee lowest prices around $20, but this depends on future circumstances and therefore evades any precise prediction. The lowest point could still be somewhat above $20, but it could also be a single-digit figure.