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Author Topic: Bearish Inverse Pennant Chart Formation  (Read 1749 times)
SwannyMatt
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April 11, 2013, 01:49:31 AM
 #1

First off, I aint selling.
Secondly, I do believe chart patterns are mostly -- if not entirely -- a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy.

However there is a nasty inverse pennant formation brewing if you look at a one or two month closing chart with 30 minute or 1 hour interval. I'm on mobile and can't link to it, but please punch that in and see for yourself.

I'm scrounging up as much money to buy on the way down. Target price may be as low as $40 and might hover around there for as much time as the price had hovered around $2-$10 after the $30 peak in summer 2011 until october 2012.
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April 11, 2013, 01:56:13 AM
 #2

First off, I aint selling.
Secondly, I do believe chart patterns are mostly -- if not entirely -- a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy.

However there is a nasty inverse pennant formation brewing if you look at a one or two month closing chart with 30 minute or 1 hour interval. I'm on mobile and can't link to it, but please punch that in and see for yourself.

I'm scrounging up as much money to buy on the way down. Target price may be as low as $40 and might hover around there for as much time as the price had hovered around $2-$10 after the $30 peak in summer 2011 until october 2012.

$40 is a pretty optimistic low target.  There's just no good reason the exchange rate couldn't fall back into the single digits again.  I don't think people have fully appreciated how devastating an event today will be for a really large number of people, and as they leave, they're going to take a lot of money out with them and we'll see the opposite of what we've seen over the past few months.  Not only will money completely leave the system, bids will disappear as people who still want to own bitcoins hope to buy at lower and lower prices.  It really can go all the way down.
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April 11, 2013, 02:05:26 AM
 #3

First off, I aint selling.
Secondly, I do believe chart patterns are mostly -- if not entirely -- a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy.

However there is a nasty inverse pennant formation brewing if you look at a one or two month closing chart with 30 minute or 1 hour interval. I'm on mobile and can't link to it, but please punch that in and see for yourself.

I'm scrounging up as much money to buy on the way down. Target price may be as low as $40 and might hover around there for as much time as the price had hovered around $2-$10 after the $30 peak in summer 2011 until october 2012.

$40 is a pretty optimistic low target.  There's just no good reason the exchange rate couldn't fall back into the single digits again.  I don't think people have fully appreciated how devastating an event today will be for a really large number of people, and as they leave, they're going to take a lot of money out with them and we'll see the opposite of what we've seen over the past few months.  Not only will money completely leave the system, bids will disappear as people who still want to own bitcoins hope to buy at lower and lower prices.  It really can go all the way down.

This is where Mt. Gox sucking so much it could deepthroat Mt. Everest may help out.  The impact will be over a longer period of time since Gox lags so far in getting new ppl confirmed with their KYC system.  Now I'm glad that one day I turned off my VPN and got nabbed by Gox for the KYC before the list was over 20k ppl.
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April 11, 2013, 02:05:37 AM
 #4

Impossible to tell at this point.
bitcon
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April 11, 2013, 02:16:21 AM
 #5

First off, I aint selling.
Secondly, I do believe chart patterns are mostly -- if not entirely -- a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy.

However there is a nasty inverse pennant formation brewing if you look at a one or two month closing chart with 30 minute or 1 hour interval. I'm on mobile and can't link to it, but please punch that in and see for yourself.

I'm scrounging up as much money to buy on the way down. Target price may be as low as $40 and might hover around there for as much time as the price had hovered around $2-$10 after the $30 peak in summer 2011 until october 2012.

$40 is a pretty optimistic low target.  There's just no good reason the exchange rate couldn't fall back into the single digits again.  I don't think people have fully appreciated how devastating an event today will be for a really large number of people, and as they leave, they're going to take a lot of money out with them and we'll see the opposite of what we've seen over the past few months.  Not only will money completely leave the system, bids will disappear as people who still want to own bitcoins hope to buy at lower and lower prices.  It really can go all the way down.

yeah, so devastating that we're back up to $183.   troll...



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essem
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April 11, 2013, 03:02:24 AM
 #6

First off, I aint selling.
Secondly, I do believe chart patterns are mostly -- if not entirely -- a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy.


What? Someone care to explain this statement?
SwannyMatt
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April 11, 2013, 05:05:59 AM
 #7

First off, I aint selling.
Secondly, I do believe chart patterns are mostly -- if not entirely -- a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy.


What? Someone care to explain this statement?

Line 1: Not selling in case I'm wrong. Because the fundamentals for bitcoin obviously haven't changed. But the technicals clearly have, and perception may have changed.

Line 2: I believe technical analysis is pseudoscience/self-fulfilling prophecy, but I use it as an indicator anyway only because I know lots of other people in the market trade that way.

Comprendé?
arepo
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this statement is false


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April 11, 2013, 06:54:47 AM
 #8

it's all there -- the steadily decreasing volume throughout the pennant and just now, the spike in volume and price associated with the 'pattern confirmation'. this small spike is actually a bulltrap/sell signal for the smart money. get ready. target: sub $150 on the scale of ten hours

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
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April 11, 2013, 06:55:20 PM
 #9

First off, I aint selling.
Secondly, I do believe chart patterns are mostly -- if not entirely -- a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy.


What? Someone care to explain this statement?

Line 1: Not selling in case I'm wrong. Because the fundamentals for bitcoin obviously haven't changed. But the technicals clearly have, and perception may have changed.

Line 2: I believe technical analysis is pseudoscience/self-fulfilling prophecy, but I use it as an indicator anyway only because I know lots of other people in the market trade that way.

Comprendé?

Ever hear the story of the young man who left his Indian tribe to study at Harvard?

He graduates from Harvard then goes to Wall St. He's making millions a year.
He gets a call from his tribe that the Chief has died and the tribe wants him to be chief.
He accepts and moves back west.
First order of business is the tribe wants to know how much wood to collect for winter.
Chief says come back in 1 hour.
He calls the weather service and asks about their prediction for the winter.
Weather service says, looks like we'll have a pretty mild winter, like last year.
Chief tells his tribe to collect enough wood for 6 weeks, just to be safe. Tribe collects wood.
Chief calls the service a few weeks later, asks how bad will winter be.
Service says it looks like winter will be a worse than we expected.
Chief tells tribe to go collect 2 weeks more wood.
A few more weeks, chief calls the weather service, asks same question.
Weather service says looks like winter is going to be worse than we expected.
Chief tells tribe collect 2 more weeks of wood.
Few weeks go by chief calls weather service, asks same question gets same response.

This time Chief asks, what is wrong with your computer models?  How can they be so wrong and change so much?

Weather services replies, Oh we don't use computers we look at how much wood the Indians collect and base out predictions on that.
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