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Author Topic: Is Chances of Winning in Gambling Higher?  (Read 604 times)
cjmoles
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December 27, 2016, 07:07:42 AM
 #21

No matter how many times you roll a dice, the chance is always 1:2 or 50% without house edge.  A sample question would be this.  If you toss a coin 9 times and the result is H, T, T, T, T, T, T, T,  what is the chance that the coin will land in H on the 9th toss? (H=head, T=tail) .  Please  realize that the result in gambling depends entirely on its internal system.

Okay, so let's consider an heads tail bet between you and your friend.

First thing, chances of you winning a bet is 50%
Second thing, you both have $1000 initially in your pockets.
Third, you and your friend bet $1 in each bet. Winner takes $2.
Fourth, you'll leave as soon as your pocket has $1001


So the match starts,
If you win first bet, your pocket has $1001 , you leave . Chances of winning fist my was 50%.

Now chances of losing first match was 50% . In case first match is a loss, you'll continue to play till your pocket has more than 1000 dollar.

Okay, I think I get what you're describing here.  You seem interested in the math behind this stuff so you might appreciate this.  The danger with your permutation analysis lies within what is termed the "random walk."  You can easily end up in a situation where it comes highly improbable that you'll ever come back toward the break even mark, let alone a positive profit.  And, because your strategy dictates a "quit" on a win of one unit, the risk outweighs the reward significantly.  You might find it enlightening to study the math behind the "random walk."  Start here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk

dunfida
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December 27, 2016, 07:13:01 AM
 #22

I just did some calculations. According to them, chances of winning in gambling comes out to be around 75%. Please correct me if I'm wrong somewhere


My assumptions-

I'm considering a case, with zero house edge.
It would be X2 if you win. And you get 0 of you lose.
Each game would charge 1 Bitcoin. Which means, 2 Bitcoin if I win, 0 if I lose.
I have 1000 Bitcoin ( many Bitcoins) in the balance of company X (Gambling Website)
Chances of winning and losing are equally likely - 50%
I would withdraw all my balance as soon as my balance becomes 1001 Bitcoins
I'm betting in two player Roulette. (I'm not talking about any sports bet)


So here it goes,

Here L  represents Lost game and W represents  win.  I'm writing the chances of event occurring in front of it. So, LWW means that I lose first game, and win second and third game giving me a net profit of 1 Bitcoin.

Cases which could lead to 1001 Bitcoins,

W -50%
LWW -12.5%
LWLWW -3.125%
LLWWW - 3.125%
LLLWWWW - 0.78125%
LLWLWWW- 0.78125%
LLWWLWW- 0.78125%
LWLWLWW- 0.78125%
LWLLWWW- 0.78125%

You can further continue this.

This sums up to be 72.65 %

Which means you have higher chances of winning in gambling if you follow these assumptions.




Edit 1: I have considered that you can bet each time exactly 1 Bitcoin.

Consider a case , I lose first game (represented by L), so my balance becomes 999 Bitcoins. Chances of losing first match were 50 %. Now I again bet 1 Bitcoin and I win (Balance becomes 1000) . Now again I bet 1 Bitcoin , I win (balance becomes 1001) . Now I will withdraw all my balance .
So the above event is represented by LWW . Chances of happening of above event is 50% * 50% * 50% = 12.5%
Are you referring on playing dice site? 0 house edge doesn't exist nowadays and we cant really assume that 1000 bitcoin bankroll on playing gambling. Regarding on the calculation I could say that it would be useless because you cant be sure on the next random result. You cant state if its a win or lose because they are independent and doest rely on each other.

NorrisK
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December 27, 2016, 07:20:51 AM
 #23

You are making a false assumption in your calculations.

You assumption is that you cannot lose more than 3 times in a row at the start, and that you always reach 1001 bitcoins again within a few bets.

The odds may be low, but they are catastrophic to your winning chance. It is highly likely that you will NEVER reach 1001 bitcoins again if you drop to say 990 right at the start.

You have use the expected value when calculating this. With odds of 50% of winning, your Expected value E[X] would be:

E[X] = -1B * 0.5 + -1B * 0.5 = 0B, so your net outcome would be exactly what you start with.

kalpit (OP)
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December 27, 2016, 08:10:31 AM
 #24

Thank you everyone for your comments .

I have updated the topic with an edit. Please have a look at it.

Now, I'm locking the topic.
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