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Author Topic: Difficulty = 877 226  (Read 2914 times)
urtur
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June 15, 2011, 01:50:16 PM
 #1

So the new difficulty is about 55% higher than it was before.

But the BTC price more or less stabilized around $20, so GPU mining is still quite profitable.
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BombaUcigasa
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June 15, 2011, 01:51:01 PM
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Honeybadger doesn't care!
Synaptic
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June 15, 2011, 01:53:57 PM
 #3

So the new difficulty is about 55% higher than it was before.

But the BTC price more or less stabilized around $20, so GPU mining is still quite profitable.

ONLY for paid off rigs.

Don't give these newbies false illusions of viability.

Paying off new rigs with mining is dead and gone.
Adam
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June 15, 2011, 01:56:15 PM
 #4

LOL, estimate for next increase according to blockexplorer:

3,507,821 in 449345 seconds (5 days)

Hope that changes

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June 15, 2011, 01:57:54 PM
 #5

Yeah, if the next change is not in 14 but 7 days and it keeps increasing by 50% every time. In all other cases, the timeframe just got longer.
Be prepared though to hit the profitability wall if you get in now, I know I was / am.

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June 15, 2011, 02:00:17 PM
 #6

LOL, estimate for next increase according to blockexplorer:

3,507,821 in 449345 seconds (5 days)

Hope that changes

Yes, it does - blockexplorer calcualtes a moving average and does not take the new speed into account. the speed per average was 13 bocks per hour, so it assumes that was with the current difficulty.

Totally new here? This is common knowledge. Takes a day for the "old speed" to get out of the averages.
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June 15, 2011, 02:01:11 PM
 #7

LOL, estimate for next increase according to blockexplorer:

3,507,821 in 449345 seconds (5 days)

Hope that changes
Nope. It's gonna be worthless to mine on Monday. Get out now. All of you. Difficulty will never come down, all you can do is sell your rig and weep.

Seriously, time and again ... after a difficulty change the stats (especially the total hash power and blocks per hour) are totally off. Only make assumptions after a day or so, when they have smoothed out again!

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Adam
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June 15, 2011, 02:11:20 PM
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I know it wasn't accurate, just thought the ridiculous number was funny.

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June 15, 2011, 02:16:17 PM
 #9

Oh yeah!

Only the strong will survive. You, small miners better stop dreaming now. This mining hobby, job, thingy or what ever you wanna call it is not for the faint of heart.


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June 15, 2011, 02:22:48 PM
 #10

Mining is competitive -- that means that everyone is trying to get a piece of the sliver of the pie that's being divided up.

The more miners, the more mouths to feed.

When the BTC/USD goes up, the pie gets bigger. ($/BTC)

When rigs are added, the pie TEMPORARILY gets bigger (BTC/hour created).

When difficulty resets, someone comes into the room and says, "the pie is HOW big? Hey, let's cut it down to size and put it back into a standard pie pan!" (6 blocks/hour).

Oh, but there's also that pesky "how much is the average Joe willing to pay for a Bitcoin" -- so the pie can only expand so much due to market valuation ($USD per BTC).

You see, earlier miners have their rigs paid off, so the $50, $100, or $150/day they're making is "free money" and can be spent on more hardware. That's why you see some guys snapping up 12 5830's when they become available for 10 minutes. Meanwhile, other miners are tempted to buy MORE hardware to keep their income up, only they'll never make any actual PROGRESS on paying off their rigs. Difficulty goes up, so income goes down. If you stop spending, you will get a smaller and smaller income.

It's not just "I have 1 rig, so I have one ticket. That guy has 10 rigs; he has 10 tickets". No, he has 10 tickets at this stage of the game, which means he has 10 rigs earning money for him. Even if you bought 9 rigs you'd be behind, since NONE of them would have paid for themselves yet. The guy with 10 rigs is still ahead of you.

Understand?
Synaptic
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June 15, 2011, 02:41:25 PM
 #11

Mining is competitive -- that means that everyone is trying to get a piece of the sliver of the pie that's being divided up.

The more miners, the more mouths to feed.

When the BTC/USD goes up, the pie gets bigger. ($/BTC)

When rigs are added, the pie TEMPORARILY gets bigger (BTC/hour created).

When difficulty resets, someone comes into the room and says, "the pie is HOW big? Hey, let's cut it down to size and put it back into a standard pie pan!" (6 blocks/hour).

Oh, but there's also that pesky "how much is the average Joe willing to pay for a Bitcoin" -- so the pie can only expand so much due to market valuation ($USD per BTC).

You see, earlier miners have their rigs paid off, so the $50, $100, or $150/day they're making is "free money" and can be spent on more hardware. That's why you see some guys snapping up 12 5830's when they become available for 10 minutes. Meanwhile, other miners are tempted to buy MORE hardware to keep their income up, only they'll never make any actual PROGRESS on paying off their rigs. Difficulty goes up, so income goes down. If you stop spending, you will get a smaller and smaller income.

It's not just "I have 1 rig, so I have one ticket. That guy has 10 rigs; he has 10 tickets". No, he has 10 tickets at this stage of the game, which means he has 10 rigs earning money for him. Even if you bought 9 rigs you'd be behind, since NONE of them would have paid for themselves yet. The guy with 10 rigs is still ahead of you.

Understand?


Yep, the "rich" get richer and "poor" get poorer.

It has always been thus, and thus will always be.
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June 15, 2011, 02:43:32 PM
 #12

The people who got in early into bitcoin are the richest of them all.  I bet they loved the exponential run up in BTC's price.

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June 15, 2011, 04:11:07 PM
 #13

I only need to pay off a single 6970 : )

I figure 20 btc will do that, at market rates. 

I still think I might end up with 20 total coins by late July, given super-ramping difficulty.  Is that reasonable for 330mhash?

If so, I got myself a good gaming card and will be ready for GW2 once it comes out in 2012.

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honeybadger
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June 15, 2011, 06:09:16 PM
 #14

Honeybadger doesn't care!

I kinda do care because I just ordered a pair of 5830s  Grin

I don't give a shit.
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kiwiasian
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June 15, 2011, 07:12:54 PM
 #15

I only need to pay off a single 6970 : )

I figure 20 btc will do that, at market rates. 

I still think I might end up with 20 total coins by late July, given super-ramping difficulty.  Is that reasonable for 330mhash?

If so, I got myself a good gaming card and will be ready for GW2 once it comes out in 2012.

What the
How much did you pay for your 6970??

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June 15, 2011, 07:25:29 PM
 #16

The people who got in early into bitcoin are the richest of them all.  I bet they loved the exponential run up in BTC's price.

Yeah, it was easier for these folks to find blocks, but everyone seems to think that the price has been high.  I'm sure the guys that started 6 months ago when BTC was < $1 were thinking long and hard about whether it was worth it too. 
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June 15, 2011, 07:29:53 PM
 #17


I got the lightning, $385.  Again, wanted for gaming, but wanted one with dual fans for OCing for mining as well.

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16814127581


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finnthecelt
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June 15, 2011, 07:33:59 PM
 #18

Oh yeah!

Only the strong will survive. You, small miners better stop dreaming now. This mining hobby, job, thingy or what ever you wanna call it is not for the faint of heart.



At this point it seems to me it's best to hold onto your BTC and roll the dam dice!!!
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June 15, 2011, 07:47:57 PM
 #19

The people who got in early into bitcoin are the richest of them all.  I bet they loved the exponential run up in BTC's price.

Yeah, it was easier for these folks to find blocks, but everyone seems to think that the price has been high.  I'm sure the guys that started 6 months ago when BTC was < $1 were thinking long and hard about whether it was worth it too. 

I think the heaviest price you pay is all mental. Especially weeding through the negativity in order to get insight from knowledgeable folks.
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