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Author Topic: countdown to 02:00 Zulu, goxdump or no?  (Read 3449 times)
jojo69
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April 11, 2013, 05:24:35 PM
 #1

On the one hand a tumultuous rush for the exit seems inevitable, on the other alternative exchanges are gaining market share as fast as their servers can process new accounts and seem to have stabilized at a consensus valuation around $90/BTC.

I am starting to doubt that the great buying opportunity will even present itself.

This is not some pseudoeconomic post-modern Libertarian cult, it's an un-led, crowd-sourced mega startup organized around mutual self-interest where problems, whether of the theoretical or purely practical variety, are treated as temporary and, ultimately, solvable.
Censorship of e-gold was easy. Censorship of Bitcoin will be… entertaining.
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jojo69
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April 11, 2013, 05:59:38 PM
 #2

8 hours and counting

bitstamp 76
campbx 89
bct-e 86
bitfloor 92
virtex 115
btc24 65euro

This is not some pseudoeconomic post-modern Libertarian cult, it's an un-led, crowd-sourced mega startup organized around mutual self-interest where problems, whether of the theoretical or purely practical variety, are treated as temporary and, ultimately, solvable.
Censorship of e-gold was easy. Censorship of Bitcoin will be… entertaining.
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April 11, 2013, 06:02:14 PM
 #3

everyone will be buying because everyone thinks everyone is selling
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April 11, 2013, 06:03:28 PM
 #4

omgwtfbbq.

That is what will happen.

BTC: 13WYhobWLHRMvBwXGq5ckEuUyuDPgMmHuK
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April 11, 2013, 06:04:28 PM
 #5

i hope price will be low because i have to buy coins to get my money from gox and say goodbye to them. I think many people will do it also.

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April 11, 2013, 06:07:17 PM
 #6

I never thought we'd see sub-$100 again this soon.  And I doubt I'm the only one waiting to buy.
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April 11, 2013, 06:10:47 PM
 #7

I never thought we'd see sub-$100 again this soon.  And I doubt I'm the only one waiting to buy.
you are really cute when you are greedy Smiley
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April 11, 2013, 06:14:15 PM
 #8

I have sold everything at 197EUR and I am very lucky and had no clue the market would crash 2 hours after. I am still not buying back in, just because anything can happen right now. It could peak to 200 again, yes, but it wont stay there for more than a few minutes. People are scared, too much money in it, too many people have lost tens of thousands of dollars. They want their profit. So a higher price will make it bearable for them to get out with a smaller loss than to go down with bitcoin. I am afraid this will take some time to recover.

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move_zig
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April 11, 2013, 06:18:25 PM
 #9

The order book looks bullish. I think when trading resumes the price is going to recover quickly.
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April 11, 2013, 06:20:28 PM
 #10

everyone will be buying because everyone thinks everyone is selling

I'd say:

1. quick selloff to whatever value the other exchanges will have stabilized at (consensus seems to be around 85$)
2. panic to below 50$
3. multiple price swings till a new equilibrium is found (likely to be not much below pre-Gox-reopen consensus)

If you're good at calling highs and lows, you'll profit from the swings.
Only a few hours to go.
Be ready for a hell of a ride.

Also Gox taking no fees for 48 hours means you'll be tempted to leave the fiat there at least during that time.

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Wuji
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April 11, 2013, 06:23:23 PM
 #11

everyone will be buying because everyone thinks everyone is selling

I'd say:

1. quick selloff to whatever value the other exchanges will have stabilized at (consensus seems to be around 85$)
2. panic to below 50$
3. multiple price swings till a new equilibrium is found (likely to be not much below pre-Gox-reopen consensus)

If you're good at calling highs and lows, you'll profit from the swings.
Only a few hours to go.
Be ready for a hell of a ride.

Also Gox taking no fees for 48 hours means you'll be tempted to leave the fiat there at least during that time.

I agree.  Last night I thought $50 was a value but, after today I think we will be under $50 tomorrow if Mt. Gox can stay online.
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April 11, 2013, 06:28:30 PM
 #12

I think a lot of panic sell already happened at the other exchanges - look at the timelines, most got a huge drop and very high volume in the hour after gox closed.
The fiat however is still there.. I don't think it will go below 100.
wopwop
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April 11, 2013, 06:29:49 PM
 #13

I think a lot of panic sell already happened at the other exchanges - look at the timelines, most got a huge drop and very high volume in the hour after gox closed.
The fiat however is still there.. I don't think it will go below 100.
damn right

I can sense you are professional
seldon
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April 11, 2013, 06:31:40 PM
 #14

I think a lot of panic sell already happened at the other exchanges - look at the timelines, most got a huge drop and very high volume in the hour after gox closed.
The fiat however is still there.. I don't think it will go below 100.
damn right

I can sense you are professional

I'd wish - would have sold some at 200+ as instinct told me (was overruled by greed Smiley )
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April 11, 2013, 06:35:59 PM
 #15

On the one hand a tumultuous rush for the exit seems inevitable
It's my contention that anyone desperate to sell has already sold by transferring their BTC to an exchange that's still in operation.

Whereas, buying depends on already having fiat in non-Gox exchanges.

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the prevalence of users convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and of the con-artists who have followed them here to devour them.
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April 11, 2013, 06:36:33 PM
 #16

I personally think it will settle at around $35/BTC. FUNDAMENTALS as you speculators call it Cheesy

Who's using BTC at the moment to buy anything? How many noobs are gonna quit BTC after they wanted to make a quick buck, and all of a sudden there was no happy ending?
Herodes
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April 11, 2013, 06:38:31 PM
 #17

I think there will be a sell off, because too many are fearfull!
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April 11, 2013, 06:47:21 PM
 #18

Many coins will change their owner for sure, but the winner will be known after some years. Believe it!
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April 11, 2013, 06:53:22 PM
 #19

how about this:

People might be selling at other exchanges right now because they all expect a sharp knife to happen. So they need fiat to get a chance to buy more coins close to the bottom.

You know how it ends when too many people expect something to happen?  Grin

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April 11, 2013, 07:00:21 PM
 #20

Hey guys, stop dreaming, there won't be a stable price on the other exchanges until Gox comes back: price will keep going down until trade is reopened at Gox because it's very difficult to quickly pour in significant amounts of fiat in an exchange, and most of fiat sits at Gox, while its very easy to move coins from Gox to other exchanges.

I'd say that we will se $40/$45 before Gox opens.

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