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Author Topic: 1.2 Ghash for sale  (Read 3493 times)
kiwiasian
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June 16, 2011, 03:07:02 AM
 #21

I haven't even provided statistics. I haven't finished my 24 hour run yet, for the third time...

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Sukrim
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June 16, 2011, 03:11:10 AM
 #22

Sorry, these numbers are statistically possible - BUT they are improbable! Wink
This means, he could be even so lucky to find 10 blocks solo in one day.

In the longer run however (depending on where he is mining) his income will come closer and closer to the expected level.

So yes:
It is possible to gain more BTC with 1 GH/s than someone with 1.2 GH/s on a lucky/unlucky (depending on who you are) day.
It is far less likely to gain more in a week (actually VERY unlikely) than someone with 200 MH/s more.
It is nearly impossible to have a 1 month luck streak - there might be however people out there, that are experiencing this.


Think of it as the coin toss example:

Tossing a coin just 4 times makes it quite likely that an imbalance is visible.
If you toss it 1 million times, it is far less likely that there is a significant imbalance between heads and tails.

24 hours are just a too small sample size - especially considering you're probably comparing pool payouts and not shares submitted!

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michaelmclees
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June 16, 2011, 03:18:49 AM
 #23

I haven't even provided statistics. I haven't finished my 24 hour run yet, for the third time...

You don't understand.  You might as well say that on average, you can win 3 out of every 10 Powerball lotteries with 1 ticket each draw.  And if a statistician tells you that you won't, what would your reply be?  "Just you wait!  All I need are ten drawings!  You'll see!"

I'll be very interested to see these "statistics..."
hawks5999
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June 16, 2011, 03:51:08 AM
 #24

Gsus, this is ridiculous. 60 seconds on IRC can answer this whole thing. You've wasted more energy just firing up your calculators than actually generating the coins:

hawks5999> ;;bc,gen 1000000
<gribble> The expected generation output, at 1000000 Khps, given current difficulty of 877226.66666667 , is 1.14660032441 BTC per day and 0.0477750135172 BTC per hour.
<hawks5999> ;;bc,gen 1200000
<gribble> The expected generation output, at 1200000 Khps, given current difficulty of 877226.66666667 , is 1.3759203893 BTC per day and 0.0573300162207 BTC per hour.

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smackdaddy
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June 16, 2011, 02:26:39 PM
 #25

Let me explain why nobody will be leasing from you:

- You're some guy on a forum. What assurances do I have that if I send you this (substantial) amount of money, you will hold up your end of the bargain? (this is honestly as far as 99.9% of the people would get in the cost/benefit analysis).

- Because you're not leasing the hardware, just the bitcoin return, one has to consider the math and motivations and they will see that you have to be trying to scam people. Let me explain. Because you're providing only the bitcoin return (and not just leasing computers for general purposes that have AMD GPUs...which would lease for 1/10th the rates you're asking, by the way), it's purely an issue of math. In order for this deal to make sense compared to simply taking the $750 and buying bitcoins on an exchange, there would need to be a substantial margin available. In order for their to be a substantial margin available to your customers, you would have to be willingly taking a loss compared to just mining yourself and keeping the coins.

Basically, in order for this to be worth it for a customer, it requires you deliberately losing money. When somebody proposes a business deal that clearly would result in them losing money, HEAD FOR ZEE HILLS.

Basically, you're looking to take advantage of people. So gtfo.

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June 16, 2011, 02:56:17 PM
 #26

(and not just leasing computers for general purposes that have AMD GPUs...which would lease for 1/10th the rates you're asking, by the way)

Please direct everyone to a place that offers 1.2 Ghash for $75 per 30 day lease.  I would gladly lease that.
smackdaddy
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June 16, 2011, 03:07:08 PM
 #27

(and not just leasing computers for general purposes that have AMD GPUs...which would lease for 1/10th the rates you're asking, by the way)

Please direct everyone to a place that offers 1.2 Ghash for $75 per 30 day lease.  I would gladly lease that.

Nobody leases hash rates. They lease equipment. Typical lease rates are around 1/10th-1/12th of the purchase price, per month, with a multi-year agreement.


michaelmclees
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June 16, 2011, 03:11:42 PM
 #28

(and not just leasing computers for general purposes that have AMD GPUs...which would lease for 1/10th the rates you're asking, by the way)

Please direct everyone to a place that offers 1.2 Ghash for $75 per 30 day lease.  I would gladly lease that.

Nobody leases hash rates. They lease equipment. Typical lease rates are around 1/10th-1/12th of the purchase price, per month, with a multi-year agreement.



Comparing apples to oranges then, aren't you.
smackdaddy
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June 16, 2011, 04:49:47 PM
 #29

Heh. Ok man. You must be right, since you have a psuedo-response for every post. I'm sure people will be knocking down your door, now that they've seen the depths of your unassailable logic.

michaelmclees
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June 16, 2011, 05:13:06 PM
 #30

Heh. Ok man. You must be right, since you have a psuedo-response for every post. I'm sure people will be knocking down your door, now that they've seen the depths of your unassailable logic.

I'm just saying that most of the criticisms leveled on me are asinine.  The only legit one is that my fee is too high, in which case I won't sell anything.  There's nothing stopping potential buyers from offering a lower fee over PM.

The others are just bad criticism.

1-  "I get more coins per day with less Ghash."  - Wrong.
2-  "For that money, people could make their own machines." - ... Only if they can find the equipment today at the prices of 2 months ago.  Unlikely.
3-  "For that money, people could just buy coins." - Which makes sense if you think that the difficulty level will go dramatically up over the next 3 months or the exchange rate will stay the same.  If on the other hand, you want coins but don't want to pay $19.50 for them and think the difficulty might go down, my rates are competitive.  No one knows the future; I only know what my current capabilities are.
4-  "People can just lease equipment for the next 2+ years... at X amount per month."  Yeah right.
smackdaddy
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June 16, 2011, 05:16:22 PM
 #31

You have ignored the bulk of my two primary criticisms:

#1 Why would anybody trust you?

#2 Why would this deal make financial sense to you? Since it's strictly about mining abilities, either you lose or the customer loses. The only business deals that make sense are when both parties win.

All the hand waving and straw-man erecting in the world will not resolve those fundemental issues.

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June 16, 2011, 05:23:14 PM
 #32

(and not just leasing computers for general purposes that have AMD GPUs...which would lease for 1/10th the rates you're asking, by the way)

Please direct everyone to a place that offers 1.2 Ghash for $75 per 30 day lease.  I would gladly lease that.

Nobody leases hash rates. They lease equipment. Typical lease rates are around 1/10th-1/12th of the purchase price, per month, with a multi-year agreement.

Well, so then I must have been on a different forum where a couple of guys offered exactly this: leasing hash rates, a.k.a. mining contracts. Actually it's because it makes a lot sense — not just for the seller but for the buyer as well. Personally I started setting up such a service as well… and I don't see a problem in offering such thing. It's (almost) just a matter of the right price, no? And trust of course.

Enthusiast BTC miner. Developer. twitter.com/BitcoinHeroes (http://twitter.com/BitcoinHeroes)

Selling mining contracts. See my website (http://bitcoinheroes.com) or PM me for details.
michaelmclees
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June 16, 2011, 05:31:43 PM
 #33

You have ignored the bulk of my two primary criticisms:

#1 Why would anybody trust you?

#2 Why would this deal make financial sense to you? Since it's strictly about mining abilities, either you lose or the customer loses. The only business deals that make sense are when both parties win.

All the hand waving and straw-man erecting in the world will not resolve those fundemental issues.

#1 - fasttxdivorce.com - That's me.  I don't defraud people; doing so puts my license at risk.

#2 - Then no mining contracts would ever make financial sense...  The reality is that people operate on preference and if they prefer 30 days of 1.2 Ghash (starting instantly when the deal is made) over either buying coins directly (setting up accounts, waiting for confirmations, etc...), having a rig in their house (a difficult proposition indeed), or keeping their $750, then my deal would make sense to them.
smackdaddy
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June 16, 2011, 05:34:40 PM
 #34

Well, so then I must have been on a different forum where a couple of guys offered exactly this: leasing hash rates, a.k.a. mining contracts. Actually it's because it makes a lot sense — not just for the seller but for the buyer as well. Personally I started setting up such a service as well… and I don't see a problem in offering such thing. It's (almost) just a matter of the right price, no? And trust of course.

Oh, sure, people are trying to lease hash rates. What I meant was, if you look at the amount of money being spent on leasing computer equipment versus leasing computer *output* (of any sort), there's no real comparison.

Here's the problem which nobody has successfully addressed: Why would you lease me your hashing at a monthly rate that is less than you would receive yourself from mining? Conversely, why would I lease your hashing at a monthly rate that is more than I would receive from the value of the coins?

See, either way somebody loses. Thus, there can be no trust, because there is no mutual benefit. Business 101.

michaelmclees
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June 16, 2011, 05:47:52 PM
 #35

Well, so then I must have been on a different forum where a couple of guys offered exactly this: leasing hash rates, a.k.a. mining contracts. Actually it's because it makes a lot sense — not just for the seller but for the buyer as well. Personally I started setting up such a service as well… and I don't see a problem in offering such thing. It's (almost) just a matter of the right price, no? And trust of course.

Oh, sure, people are trying to lease hash rates. What I meant was, if you look at the amount of money being spent on leasing computer equipment versus leasing computer *output* (of any sort), there's no real comparison.

Here's the problem which nobody has successfully addressed: Why would you lease me your hashing at a monthly rate that is less than you would receive yourself from mining? Conversely, why would I lease your hashing at a monthly rate that is more than I would receive from the value of the coins?

See, either way somebody loses. Thus, there can be no trust, because there is no mutual benefit. Business 101.

Because, as anyone who has actually mined coins can tell you, time is of the essence and there is more to it than simply looking at wikipedia hash rate charts.

"Why would you lease me your hashing at a monthly rate that is less than you would receive yourself from mining?"

Answer - Because I already have the equipment and I'll keep it when the lease is over.  You get the future coins, I get the instant cash that I can use for whatever I want.

"Conversely, why would I lease your hashing at a monthly rate that is more than I would receive from the value of the coins?"

Answer - You don't know where difficulty is going and you certainly don't know where the exchange rate is going.  You're making decisions on assumptions as though they are fact when they are really nothing more than speculation.  You might be speculating correctly, but spare me the, "I can't predict the future mentality."  You're as bad a Kiwi thinking he can beat the math month over month.
cablepair
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September 13, 2011, 08:39:28 PM
 #36

actually you can get the estimated next difficulty by going here:

http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate

and anyone who follows the Bitcoin world closely can get a pretty good idea that difficulty has stabilized and wont go up again dramatically unless the values spike up really high again.
alan2here
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September 13, 2011, 11:03:33 PM
 #37

If I rent for a day how much does it cost me and how much do I get paid back in returns?
Cosbycoin
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September 14, 2011, 12:10:58 PM
 #38

Got two words for ya: RIP OFF.
cablepair
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September 14, 2011, 04:37:50 PM
 #39

Got two words for ya: RIP OFF.
+1
russ
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September 14, 2011, 08:17:59 PM
 #40

What happens if by luck you find more coins than expected? There is no obvious way of checking that you don't steal them.

Renting ghash doesn't make sense and that's excluding the price!
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