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Author Topic: Chainsaw Analysis  (Read 581 times)
Chainsaw
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January 05, 2017, 05:38:03 PM
Last edit: January 05, 2017, 07:48:39 PM by Chainsaw
 #1

Volatility (and price!) are up, which means many more trading opportunities.

Here's a centralized Bitcointalk thread for such discussions.

Some will be posts here.
When warranted, I'll link to written up steemit articles.
More often, I'll share a link to my livestream if I am in front of the chart performing analysis. When this is going on, all are invited to join the stream with questions.

Where to find me:

Steemit (interactive articles, often linked to videos): https://steemit.com/@chainsaw

Twitch (videos): https://www.twitch.tv/angrygumball

Youtube (videos, livestreams): http://www.youtube.com/user/russeljc79/live

When new content is delivered, I'll post a relevant link.

Note: RyninDaClem built an excellent, free paper trading app for Bitcoin. You can sign up at http://bit-sim.trade. It's a no-cost way to practice your trading - I hope to see you all there!

Disclaimer: The information contained within this thread (hereinafter collectively referred to as “Information”) is provided for informational and educational purposes only. The Information should not be construed as investment / trading advice and is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities mentioned.

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Chainsaw
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January 05, 2017, 05:42:58 PM
 #2

Here's a static assessment of the 1166-->851 crash:
https://www.twitch.tv/angrygumball/v/112287193


I'm live-streaming on Youtube at the moment. Volatility has slowed so it is more subdued, but I'm currently short from 992 and talking through the 1m evolutions as I move my stop and wait for a re-entry.

http://www.youtube.com/user/russeljc79/live

It'd be great to see some Bitcointalk faces over there.

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January 05, 2017, 05:48:34 PM
 #3

Stream is offline
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January 05, 2017, 05:51:20 PM
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Thanks for the plug, buddy!

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January 05, 2017, 05:56:56 PM
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Thanks for the plug, buddy!

For sure! It's an incredibly helpful tool, not to mention an addictively fun game. It's a shame more people aren't using it - just doing my part to get the word out!

njcarlos - I reduced the bitrate, which should help with the consistency of stream across users.

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January 05, 2017, 06:15:58 PM
 #6

Stream concluded. (I'll try to post such a message at stream start and stream end.)

It was protracted, but we got to walk through a price entry at 992, and the evolving considerations as we dropped to 935, 907, 920, implied bearish, then went bullish before existing for a gain.

Streams are automatically uploaded to my Youtube channel afterwards, so you can Subscribe there if you want to look into them after the fact.

http://www.youtube.com/user/russeljc79

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January 05, 2017, 07:46:28 PM
Last edit: January 05, 2017, 10:46:01 PM by Chainsaw
 #7

Another tradable move to the downside.
SELL at 980, streaming the trade. Initial target 920.

These are personal real-time targets that can and do change minute by minute - not well-defined, week-long defined targets. The stream covers the evolution of those trades as more information comes in, and mirrors the text previously written/said within a small trading chat group.

http://www.youtube.com/user/russeljc79

EDIT-Which evolved into a sell at 948, then going long upon recognizing a support line from the 940 low to the 945.60 low on the 1m chart. Trade invalidated upon any breach of the new support line.

This is my favorite kind of trading - hypervolatile, massive range swings, potentially pivoting positions a few times/hr.

EDIT 2Then recognized the resistance line at 984, 964...saw we were hitting that resistance line, and closed out the long from 948 to 962.

Did a SELL (at 962) upon realizing the lower trendline was only anchoring off the 920 and 940 local(est) lows, and did not tie in the 851 low. So I expect that, at least before completing consolidation of this wedge from 1166 to 851, we will need to set some lower level than the 920 at least once, in order to set a decent technical support line going forward.

...It is so incredibly rare to see the range of 800 to 1250 - over 50% - on a 1m chart!

EDIT 3 In the end, Two small losses negated my first win. Luckily I was watching the chart when we broke up, and I got long at 979, hopefully ending the day as a win.

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January 05, 2017, 10:02:35 PM
 #8

Sounds tiring trading on 1m charts the whole time, so much noise and false signals there you keep flip-flopping lol. Personally I think we're oversold on 4h and 1h chart and there are not many sellers at this level left so I expect us to revisit the 1000s first before diving down again. But good luck anyway. Smiley

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January 05, 2017, 10:13:47 PM
 #9

By the way can you fix the audio on your stream perhaps? It sounds very choppy and it's hard to hear what you say sometimes. Would attract more listeners/watchers to your stream for sure. Get well soon mate.

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January 05, 2017, 10:15:49 PM
 #10

Sounds tiring trading on 1m charts the whole time, so much noise and false signals there you keep flip-flopping lol. Personally I think we're oversold on 4h and 1h chart and there are not many sellers at this level left so I expect us to revisit the 1000s first before diving down again. But good luck anyway. Smiley

Funny you'd say that. I leapt on it because it's such a rare opportunity. While prices are jumping up or down $20 in a second regularly, it can be wildly lucrative.
Here, a familiar pattern held true - it works until it doesn't.
Once volatility slows and you get in a range, you start getting chewed up by ranging.

It was great practice, I'm still below personal sell targets and doing paper trading, getting the rust off. My mistakes eroded my paper profits...a cheap lesson learned.

Looks like it's back to trading the 1h and 4h charts for the time being :-)

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January 05, 2017, 10:22:19 PM
 #11

By the way can you fix the audio on your stream perhaps? It sounds very choppy and it's hard to hear what you say sometimes. Would attract more listeners/watchers to your stream for sure. Get well soon mate.

Tea always helps :-)

Thanks for the audio feedback - I'll do some more tests. Might be a good excuse to pick up a new headset rather than a desktop mic.

Good pilot run - I adjusted the bitrate, resolution, and screen-grab today to streamline those.



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