Possible scenarios for 2017 and beyond

[talks_cheep]

Now that we see how January blood-bath has become a reality, it's time to re-assess the direction bitcoin is heading.

Scenario 1:

Bitcoin price will follow the pattern established in 2014 thru 2015. The pattern was a long decline from $1000 level to $200 level. Bitcoin lost over 80% of its value. This will mean we will see a steady but small declines over the next 2 years to $200 level.

Scenario 2:

Bitcoin price will not follow the pattern. Instead, we will see bitcoin firming at around $800 and then continue to rise in 2017.

What other scenarios do you see in 2017 and beyond?

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[ridery99]

I believe we will go to 850 then 1000 then 2k then 10k

[chopstick]

The prices don't matter. What matters right now is if bitcoin can overcome the various oppressive forces trying to keep it down constantly.


Ideal scenario:

Bitcoin solves both its governance and scaling issues, raising the max blocksize and removing those from power who have allowed their ego to delude their vision.

Worst-case scenario:

Core continues to strangle bitcoin with a 1mb blocksize. Community remains divided, half believing in the eventual success of "Lightning Network" and the other half seeing through Core's charade.



If the first scenario succeeds, what will happen is bitcoin could possibly skyrocket into the multiple thousands, maybe even hitting 10k+ within the next year or two. Worldwide adoption now becomes possible

If the second scenario succeeds, Bitcoin will stay under 1k possibly flirting with 1k occasionally as it continues to stall out. Altcoins gain marketshare and eventually in the long run, a better coin replaces bitcoin as the #1

Either way, you should invest in altcoins. Especially if the second scenario wins out.

[BitcoinHodler]

Scenario 1:
Bitcoin price will follow the pattern established in 2014 thru 2015. The pattern was a long decline from $1000 level to $200 level. Bitcoin lost over 80% of its value. This will mean we will see a steady but small declines over the next 2 years to $200 level.

this simply can not happen for a simple reason: the 2014+ drop was because price went up from a small price (i think it was 50-100 USD) to $1200 in a short time
the similar thing is the rise from $780 to $1150 in the last couple of weeks so the drop must also be to the last resistance not a price that existed some day!

Scenario 2:
Bitcoin price will not follow the pattern. Instead, we will see bitcoin firming at around $800 and then continue to rise in 2017.

What other scenarios do you see in 2017 and beyond?

this is more possible.
but i think it is possible to see so many FUD these days, and it has already started, they create panic and then the whales also dump on exchanges to increase panic to buy cheaper coins we may see another sharp drop and then jump back.
similar to the the 10 minute $850 yesterday.

[erikalui]

The currency dropped due to Chinese banks imposing a signal to stop the decline of yuan currency as bitcoin prices have almost doubled since November. There's no particular scenario it will follow or we could predict but I want to see that the currency's use is not restricted by any Government so that it could possible break the bar of $1300 (it's highest price) and we could stop worrying about its rise and drop.

[d5000]

I think the issue that @chopstick mentions - governance and scaling - is the most important.

The way the Bitcoin community solves these issues will be crucial for the adoption and the long-time price evolvement. It's nevertheless possible that we will see one or another price hype and maybe also a deep crash or bear market, but that would not be important.

I myself am positive about SegWit, I think if it really solves the malleability problem then that would be a great advance for BTC. It will enable a range of new smart contracts like Atomic Trading I'm eagerly waiting for.

But I'm a bit skeptical about Lightning Network. LN is not the "centralization monster" some critics fear, but it is overcomplicating things. It will only work if the Bitcoin price is stable, because otherwise nobody would want to create payment channels locking away amounts over 0,1 BTC (only the early adopters perhaps) and such tiny amounts would only allow a handful of low-price purchases. And if they want to dedicate higher amounts they would like to pay all of them (or close the channel) in every down move of the price, what would lead to many useless transactions.

So I am in favour of rising the block size, but in a conservative way, not more than 50% per year.

As this is a Speculation forum post: I think Segwit adoption will boost the price a bit (I predict a new ATH in 2017 then), but for itself it doesn't solve the problems. Without Segwit _and_ a commitment to rise block size we cannot have a sustainable price growth in 2017.

[LoyceV]

Ideal scenario:

Bitcoin solves both its governance and scaling issues, raising the max blocksize and removing those from power who have allowed their ego to delude their vision.

Worst-case scenario:

Core continues to strangle bitcoin with a 1mb blocksize. Community remains divided, half believing in the eventual success of "Lightning Network" and the other half seeing through Core's charade.

I'd like to see a combination of both: larger blocks, but also something like Lighting Network where nodes can earn a small fee per transaction. The combination would lead to competition for miners, leading to lower fees again. Currently fees can barely compete with banks or creditcards.

Without larger blocks Bitcoin won't get more transactions, without more transactions it won't get more users, and without many more users I don't see the price go up 10-fold again like it did in the past.

[amacar2]

I think we will see scenario 2 rather than 1 as there have been lots of good development regarding bitcoin in last few years and situation is quite in favor of bitcoin as we can see even after massive dump from $1100 level to $900 within few hour price is still trying to find floor at or above $1000 which is very good sign for future upward trend.