The model was off by >$100 in predicting the top, I'm not sure why we should expect the bottom to be much more accurate.
I thought the bubble was pooped by market manipulation and the attack? Isn't it likely the natural top was a little higher?
I have no idea, its weird that these models are so accurate, shouldn't these people be billionaires or something?
Any deviation at the bottom will also be explained due to market manipulation and attack or some other reason not captured in a 6 parameter model. The analysis posted is kind of half assed as well, if he was serious about it he would post estimates for each parameter in the model.
It is interesting and may be worth incorporating into a larger model.