Difficulty after BFL

[trance1999]

Yes but a guess.  The spreadsheet takes into account the current has rate, which includes some asics already, and was guessing about 20 Ths more by the time BFL ships.  I'll make excel files available soon. I have a better calculation that I plan to post soon.

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[creativex]

Yes but a guess.  The spreadsheet takes into account the current has rate, which includes some asics already, and was guessing about 20 Ths more by the time BFL ships.  I'll make excel files available soon. I have a better calculation that I plan to post soon.

IC, I missed that tidbit. 20Th may be rather low given that Avalon's batch 2 40Th/s is scheduled to begin shipping sometime between tomorrow and May 5 and ASICMiner is expected to add 5 - 13Th to the network around the same time. I believe what BFL actually has on hand is one wafer of chips only, though perhaps they've made some progress in that area as I do not follow their unofficial releases.

[trance1999]

We did it as a shared google doc.  We'll either figure a way to share that with everyone or I'll make an excel doc with it.  But then you can put in any amount for added non-BFL.  And you can put in your order number and see a graph for you.

I was chatting with some other ppl today who said that BFL's first batch was 21TH.  But honestly that would only cover about 700 x 25GH units.  By that measure, they'll be sending one of these "batches" every day or two.

I thought I had heard that BLF-Josh said that anyone who had ordered in the last two weeks would get theirs by July.  But now I can't find that quote again.

I did find this on their website: https://forums.butterflylabs.com/showwiki.php?title=FAQ:Real+Shipping+Estimate.

PPS, It maybe best to go with 50% cancel & 2 units/order. That will make this shipping "guess" closer to both 30 & 70% because half way in-between them. This would make sense since the actual cancelled orders are unknown by us and could be somewhere between 30-70%.
33,000 * .5 * 2 = 33,000 units / 2,000 = 16.5 weeks = 4.125 months ​+ delivery time.

This falls more in line with the guessing that we did.  I'm going to write them and ask some direct questions.  Note that this was a while ago.  They're up to order number 40000 now and I doubt that the 1000 orders a day they're getting now includes ANY cancellations.

[creativex]

I thought I had heard that BLF-Josh said that anyone who had ordered in the last two weeks would get theirs by July.  But now I can't find that quote again.

Sounds like something he'd say, but I think that assertion is highly suspect given how disorganized they appear to be here in mid April. Josh has also suggested that BFL could assemble and ship hundreds of units per day, but that too seems highly unlikely given their track record and small limited facilities.

I've also noted a conspicuously absent lack of information coming from BFL about their future batches of chips, which is troubling given how quickly they'd deplete the supply they have when shipping commences.

[trance1999]

I re-read that faq page.  It wasn't on THEIR faq but the forum faq and that's why it was a guess.  The real faq is where I had seen the thing about July:

Q
When will you start shipping machines?
A
We plan on shipping the ASIC versions of our products by the end of April. We have orders that date back to June of 2012. Those are the orders that will be delivered first. Orders placed now will not ship until the month of July.

And this one which I don't completely understand:

Q
Where am I in line and when will my order ship?
A
We cannot disclose the number of orders we currently have. Shipping of new units is still anticipated to begin by the end of April, 2013. We are unable to predict accurate wait times until shipping begins.
Q
Where am I in line and when will my order ship?
A
We currently do not have the ability to easily disclose the number of orders we currently have. Shipping of new units is expected to begin soon. It is unknown at this time when we will complete the shipping of our pre-orders. Even though we should start shipping soon, orders placed now will be shipped at a later time. Our orders date back to June, 2012. All of those orders and those placed since then will be shipped before new orders.

I don't get why they can't "easily" disclose this.  This information is critical to knowing what the mining capability of these boxes are.

Taking them at their word for a minute (which is probably highly optimistic on their part).  Maybe we can reverse engineer how many unit orders they really have.  If they think they're going to produce 400 units a day - that's 2000 a week.  So if they are expecting to be able to ship today's orders by (the end of) July.  Starting 2 weeks from now.  That would be about 8 week to do all the orders.  So 16,000 orders.

That's a lot but it's also not near as many as I had feared when my order number was close to 40000.

I'm not saying they're going to make this schedule.  That's not my point.  But if they were using math to come up with those dates (which people like that do) maybe we can come close to guessing what the numbers in the math were.

[wtogami]

I don't get why they can't "easily" disclose this.  This information is critical to knowing what the mining capability of these boxes are.

Taking them at their word for a minute (which is probably highly optimistic on their part).  Maybe we can reverse engineer how many unit orders they really have.  If they think they're going to produce 400 units a day - that's 2000 a week.  So if they are expecting to be able to ship today's orders by (the end of) July.  Starting 2 weeks from now.  That would be about 8 week to do all the orders.  So 16,000 orders.

That's a lot but it's also not near as many as I had feared when my order number was close to 40000.

I'm not saying they're going to make this schedule.  That's not my point.  But if they were using math to come up with those dates (which people like that do) maybe we can come close to guessing what the numbers in the math were.

Was 400 units/day and 5 day workweeks mentioned by anyone from BFL?

What did they mean by a "unit"?  Jalapeno, Little Single, Single or MiniRig are all considered a "unit"?

[AlgoSwan]

Anyway, lets assume that BFL ships all it's units, what is a likely difficulty when that happens?

I don't know what will be the difficulty. All I know GPU bitcoin mining will be history in this scenario if any miracle not happens to GPU technology and/or energy innovation (solar powered GPUs, etc.)

[trance1999]

Was 400 units/day and 5 day workweeks mentioned by anyone from BFL?

What did they mean by a "unit"?  Jalapeno, Little Single, Single or MiniRig are all considered a "unit"?

Yes that number has been mentioned before.  Here is one example: https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/1736-tour-bfl-offices.html#post23453

Your second question.. that's another key thing.  It's what we were guessing here (full post on my blog like below):

http://mineshaft.me/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/hashrateperbox.jpg

Multiply each guess by the number of units and you have total hash rate.

[Edvin512]

after bfl runs with the money?

[Signus]

I did a small projection of FPGA farm mining with the rise in difficulty level. Not entirely accurate but it's based off of projections and current USD/BTC, etc.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178051.20

[Rallye]

I did a small projection of FPGA farm mining with the rise in difficulty level. Not entirely accurate but it's based off of projections and current USD/BTC, etc.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178051.20

I did not find one spot where you mentioned anything about difficulty.

[Frizz23]

Two Jalapenos a day won't have that much influence on difficulty

[Schrankwand]

I don't get why they can't "easily" disclose this.  This information is critical to knowing what the mining capability of these boxes are.

Preventing breakdown, perhaps?

Let us assume that hundreds of people have hit them with refunds. And they are now operating in a risky area, where they stay liquid by new preorders and venture money, praying that people won't go crazy asking for refunds, because that would put them in a credit crunch.

The exact credit crunch they need, since they want to pay DHL and UPS.

SO if he does something stupid now, they might go bankrupt, be unable to finish the boxes and several thousand people who are happily mining enough money for a ticket to Kansas will buy one. Happy days

[trance1999]

I don't get why they can't "easily" disclose this.  This information is critical to knowing what the mining capability of these boxes are.

Preventing breakdown, perhaps?

Let us assume that hundreds of people have hit them with refunds. And they are now operating in a risky area, where they stay liquid by new preorders and venture money, praying that people won't go crazy asking for refunds, because that would put them in a credit crunch.

The exact credit crunch they need, since they want to pay DHL and UPS.

SO if he does something stupid now, they might go bankrupt, be unable to finish the boxes and several thousand people who are happily mining enough money for a ticket to Kansas will buy one. Happy days

Yeah I think you're right.  Although if they went bankrupt now they wouldn't finish the boxes, and there'd be nothing to go to KS to buy.

I suspect it's not that they can't easily disclose it, but that they don't want to.  I'm just praying that there are a lot of cancellations and not 40,000 units about to be shipped.  Also that it takes them a little while to ship.  That they don't actually produce 400 units a day.  Here's why: the slower the total hashrate rises, the better for those of us who purchased.  The early adopters will get more time to recoup with their boxes.  If they ship in order anyway, the hash rate will be the same when I get my box (barring what is added from other sources) whether they ship slowly or quickly.  But if they ship slowly, and that speed stays slow after my box is shipped, the total hash rate won't rise as fast AFTER I get my box and I too will have more time to recoup.

Not to mention that when these DO ship there will be MORE new orders as people jump on the band wagon thinking that it's a get rich quick scheme.  So I'd rather people stay skeptical for a while. 

[Schrankwand]

Yeah I think you're right.  Although if they went bankrupt now they wouldn't finish the boxes, and there'd be nothing to go to KS to buy

I think they'd buy a plane ticket to punch them

I suspect it's not that they can't easily disclose it, but that they don't want to.  I'm just praying that there are a lot of cancellations and not 40,000 units about to be shipped.  Also that it takes them a little while to ship.  That they don't actually produce 400 units a day.  Here's why: the slower the total hashrate rises, the better for those of us who purchased.  The early adopters will get more time to recoup with their boxes.  If they ship in order anyway, the hash rate will be the same when I get my box (barring what is added from other sources) whether they ship slowly or quickly.  But if they ship slowly, and that speed stays slow after my box is shipped, the total hash rate won't rise as fast AFTER I get my box and I too will have more time to recoup.

The problem is, they shouldn't even sell that many units. If they pull it off well, there is no TH flood and people will be happy. Happy enough to buy the next 1TH/s miner. Then the 10TH/s miner, once that one is out of order.

There is a limited supply of money coming their way. If they are all smart, they keep making products, but keep the hashrates introduced into the market adding up SLOWLY rather than quickly. That way, the miners will make their money back, everyone is happy.

Market flooding is hard. The 1/3 shipping plan for example is an idiotic idea. Maybe fair to the first buyers, but it will lead to an almost immediate hashrate spike, leading to an immediate hit on the market. This is a singular, disruptive event for the market that is completely idiotic.

If they honour this, take a look at the market prices for days. Volatility is going to spike to some new heights. And then it cools down around a new market price. I am not going to make any predictions where this is though. Only that volatility is gonna skyrocket.

[Signus]

I did a small projection of FPGA farm mining with the rise in difficulty level. Not entirely accurate but it's based off of projections and current USD/BTC, etc.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178051.20

I did not find one spot where you mentioned anything about difficulty.

The difficulty rise is in the charts. I estimated a large purchase of FPGAs based off of an old estimation of the rise of difficulty, showing that the rise in difficulty level will make a ~48GH/s almost unprofitable.

[Lgetty17]

It's not that they CAN'T disclose anything about their shipments, it's that they DON'T WANT TO. The lack of transparency that BFL has when it comes to their policies and their business it is downright shameful. I think everyone should come together and threaten a class action lawsuit if they don't release bank statements, produce a bill for their purchase of ASIC chips, give more info shipping, etc. I would bet every dollar I have that they had nothing set up when they started business and then financed development and production with pre-order money. This is illegal, as any company selling something that does not exist must be regulated as a security.

IF YOU SEE THIS, JOSH ZERLAN, YOU'RE A FUCKING SCUMBAG LIAR WHO HAS SUCCESSFULLY CONNED THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE BY LYING TO THEM ABOUT WHEN PRODUCTS WILL SHIP. THE ONLY WAY YOU WILL BE ABLE TO REGAIN FAITH IS BY TELLING YOUR CUSTOMERS THE TRUTH. OPEN UP YOUR RECORDS

[firefop]

It's not that they CAN'T disclose anything about their shipments, it's that they DON'T WANT TO. The lack of transparency that BFL has when it comes to their policies and their business it is downright shameful. I think everyone should come together and threaten a class action lawsuit if they don't release bank statements, produce a bill for their purchase of ASIC chips, give more info shipping, etc. I would bet every dollar I have that they had nothing set up when they started business and then financed development and production with pre-order money. This is illegal, as any company selling something that does not exist must be regulated as a security.

IF YOU SEE THIS, JOSH ZERLAN, YOU'RE A FUCKING SCUMBAG LIAR WHO HAS SUCCESSFULLY CONNED THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE BY LYING TO THEM ABOUT WHEN PRODUCTS WILL SHIP. THE ONLY WAY YOU WILL BE ABLE TO REGAIN FAITH IS BY TELLING YOUR CUSTOMERS THE TRUTH. OPEN UP YOUR RECORDS

God bless this troll in particular. Had a lovely laugh reading that.

Listen, no company owes it's customers such transparency. What could you possibly sue them for "failing to produce a cutting edge product in the time we thought it should be finished" ? Secondly, selling pre-orders on a product that doesn't exist isn't in any way illegal, games aren't "regulated as a security" and people pre-purchase them all the time. In addition to that nobody lied to you, it was well understood that said product didn't exist and would be developed when the pre-orders were sold. In addition to that, you've always had the option of getting a refund if you requested one (although legally you agreed at time of purchase that BFL wasn't obligated to provide a refund). Also, the simple fact that they've refunded folks who've asked should indicate that they didn't infact use the pre-order money for development of the product... and now that they're shipping it's proven to not be 'a scam'.

So while i'm cranky at the delay of the singles and rigs... and that avalon shipped first... I can't blame BFL for being what they are... what we all knew they were from their business practices in the fpga market... a well intending start-up that lacked real world experience in product development, assembly and delivery.

Hopefully they'll get the process ironed out start shipping a couple thousand units a week... then you can find something else to whine about instead of this.

[firefop]

Yeah I think you're right.  Although if they went bankrupt now they wouldn't finish the boxes, and there'd be nothing to go to KS to buy

I think they'd buy a plane ticket to punch them

I suspect it's not that they can't easily disclose it, but that they don't want to.  I'm just praying that there are a lot of cancellations and not 40,000 units about to be shipped.  Also that it takes them a little while to ship.  That they don't actually produce 400 units a day.  Here's why: the slower the total hashrate rises, the better for those of us who purchased.  The early adopters will get more time to recoup with their boxes.  If they ship in order anyway, the hash rate will be the same when I get my box (barring what is added from other sources) whether they ship slowly or quickly.  But if they ship slowly, and that speed stays slow after my box is shipped, the total hash rate won't rise as fast AFTER I get my box and I too will have more time to recoup.

The problem is, they shouldn't even sell that many units. If they pull it off well, there is no TH flood and people will be happy. Happy enough to buy the next 1TH/s miner. Then the 10TH/s miner, once that one is out of order.

There is a limited supply of money coming their way. If they are all smart, they keep making products, but keep the hashrates introduced into the market adding up SLOWLY rather than quickly. That way, the miners will make their money back, everyone is happy.

Market flooding is hard. The 1/3 shipping plan for example is an idiotic idea. Maybe fair to the first buyers, but it will lead to an almost immediate hashrate spike, leading to an immediate hit on the market. This is a singular, disruptive event for the market that is completely idiotic.

If they honour this, take a look at the market prices for days. Volatility is going to spike to some new heights. And then it cools down around a new market price. I am not going to make any predictions where this is though. Only that volatility is gonna skyrocket.

Personally I don't agree. I think BFL should intentionally flood the market with hundreds of units a day for some period of time, at least long enough to catch up on pre-orders. Sure it might crash the exchange rate, but most miners aren't going to be profit taking immediately after they get their rigs up and running... they'll do what they always do, quietly accumulate bitcoins, selling off barely enough to offset power costs and wait for a nice bubble to sell into. After the last speculative bubble I'm not too worried about the price dropping to single digits, there's enough support to keep it 'high enough' and avalon has already increased the hash-rate to the point that we'd probably only see one quick difficulty adjustment instead of the the 3 that were originally projected. and extra 3600 hundred coins for a couple days... not much at all really.

[Schrankwand]

True.

What I meant was, that if they wanted to have this awesome business model, that might be a viable option. Avalon did it right, limiting their orders to a batch of units and then Boom closing the window.

Since they had the floodgates open, I hope they start their "locus" strategy at some time