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Author Topic: Why the price didnt go up ?  (Read 4864 times)
Nescio
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June 16, 2011, 01:42:56 AM
 #21

Even a price increase might not attract new miners if for example suitable graphics cards are sold out. Another break in the trend could be once people start running into energy limits, or the price goes up to such an extent that FPGA mining becomes viable. Same for ASIC mining at some point.
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Stephen Gornick
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June 16, 2011, 01:43:13 AM
 #22

Moreso than difficulty or miners is perception... It's not even been a week since the price went from like $14 to $40

Just a clarification, the all time high on Mt. Gox exchange was just under $32, so about 20 % below your mention.

Also, for the record -- the forum user bitcoinminer has no association with @BitcoinMiner twitter account or http://www.BitcoinMiner.com

NO_SLAVE
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June 16, 2011, 01:43:56 AM
 #23

If you do the hard math to determine the actual value of btc based on capital investments, human resources, overhead etc. , youll see that BTC already has a premium built in for the increased difficulty.  The invisible hand knows everything!

In My estimation BTC is already overvalued by around 38%
MoonShadow
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June 16, 2011, 01:53:51 AM
 #24

If you do the hard math to determine the actual value of btc based on capital investments, human resources, overhead etc. , youll see that BTC already has a premium built in for the increased difficulty.  The invisible hand knows everything!

In My estimation BTC is already overvalued by around 38%

And how do you know what the capital investments, human resource and overhead are?  You don't, and you can't.  No one can.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
padrino
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June 16, 2011, 01:54:56 AM
 #25


Bob is a miner. He now has 100.000 bitcoins and invested a lot of money in a mining rig. Difficulty increase and he realizes that mining is not profitable anymore for him. He decides to retire and to take his money back. He sell 50.000 bitcoins that very same day.

Price fall.

Funny, I just demonstrated that the difficulty increase might drive the price down as well.

He cannot stop mining and sell (decrease the price) until after he has started mining and bought (increase the price).

If economics were this easy we would all be rich..

1CPi7VRihoF396gyYYcs2AdTEF8KQG2BCR
semarjt
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June 16, 2011, 01:56:53 AM
 #26

If you do the hard math to determine the actual value of btc based on capital investments, human resources, overhead etc. , youll see that BTC already has a premium built in for the increased difficulty.  The invisible hand knows everything!

In My estimation BTC is already overvalued by around 38%

And how do you know what the capital investments, human resource and overhead are?  You don't, and you can't.  No one can.


Of course he can! He even used a percentage that doesn't end in 5 or 0!! What more do you need??
Macho
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June 16, 2011, 02:03:11 AM
 #27

Of course he can! He even used a percentage that doesn't end in 5 or 0!! What more do you need??
I think he just missed zero key at the end there ... Wink
bitcoinminer
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June 16, 2011, 04:54:42 AM
 #28

Moreso than difficulty or miners is perception... It's not even been a week since the price went from like $14 to $40

Just a clarification, the all time high on Mt. Gox exchange was just under $32, so about 20 % below your mention.

Also, for the record -- the forum user bitcoinminer has no association with @BitcoinMiner twitter account or http://www.BitcoinMiner.com


OK?? lol yes, that totally changes this... wild swings from $14 to $32 to $10 to $20 in a 24 hour period had nothing to do with perception of traders...

I dont claim to have a twitter account OR a website in my sig, or in any of my posts, but thanks for clearing up the confusion you helped create...

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.

-Warren Buffett
Notrem
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June 16, 2011, 05:24:00 AM
 #29

the sad part is when difficulty will increase next time. If the price stay at this point, one 5870 will just cover electricity costs... It will be like 0,2BTC daily with 20$ = 4$ a day. I think that many small miners will give up.
airdata
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June 16, 2011, 06:09:55 AM
 #30

shit won't hit the fan until blocks only yield 25btc.
Notrem
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June 16, 2011, 06:39:29 AM
 #31

but, having 4$ daily is worth it ? You probbably spend like 1$ on electricity. 3$ daily makes a 5870 about 3 months to earn for herself ; /
MoonShadow
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June 16, 2011, 06:49:06 AM
 #32

but, having 4$ daily is worth it ? You probbably spend like 1$ on electricity. 3$ daily makes a 5870 about 3 months to earn for herself ; /

It is if you already bought the card.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
Notrem
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June 16, 2011, 07:15:13 AM
 #33

but If bitcoin fails in 2-3months, its better to sell the card. After bitcoin failure, there will be like 10000000000 gpus on ebay
Stevie1024
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June 16, 2011, 08:02:16 AM
 #34

but If bitcoin fails in 2-3months, its better to sell the card. After bitcoin failure, there will be like 10000000000 gpus on ebay

Don't worry, there'll be a Bitcoin replacement where those GPU's can be used.

And otherwise you could connect them together and create your own virtual reality in which you are rich. Hey, isn't that exactly...

I'm out of here!
bitcoinminer
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June 16, 2011, 04:31:54 PM
 #35

I hope that the NSA creates a mining pool that pays similar to BTC if it fails.  Be a shame to let all that hashing power go to waste...

America... fuck yeah! comin' to save the muthafuckin' day yeah!

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.

-Warren Buffett
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