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Author Topic: the three doors problem, increasing the chance of finding the right hash  (Read 3295 times)
Synaptic
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June 16, 2011, 02:33:37 PM
 #21

I think you need to check your math.

The entire Bitcoin mining network might POSSIBLY contain 30,000 GPUs, assuming a large spread of cards pulling less than 200MH/s.

Even at the most liberal of estimations of GPU's in the network, do you seriously think AMD and ESPECIALLY Nvidia are going to go out of their way to cater to ~30,000 unit sales? Especially into an already saturated market with extremely little potential for future capacity?

Think again kids.  Think long, and hard about it.

EDIT:  Just so you realize the utter futility of your conception, roughly 25 million GPUs are sold....EACH QUARTER.

So, you were saying?


Couple things that you are overlooking.

Majority of GPU sales are cheap integrated crap.  Intel is the #1 GPU manufacturer by volume, simply because of the vast number of systems sold with cheap integrated intel graphics.

30,000 as a number of GPUs might be small, but we are talking about 30,000 GPUs that retail for $100-$300 EACH, some even more.  While the 25 million total GPUs you refer to is mostly $2 integrated junk.  If you look at the numbers as money rather than total units, the stuff sold for mining is not statistically insignificant.

Firstly, that's (again, very very liberally) 30k units sold to date. The bitcoin mining network is basically completely saturated at this point.  Furthermore, for all the same same reasons that no businesses of any considerable volume would ever care to use BTC for daily transactions (extreme volatility, questionable legality), AMD and again, ESPECIALLY NVIDIA aren't going to even bat an eyelash at this insignificant hobbyist community.

You think gargantuan multi-national corporations like AMD and Nvidia are going to divert even an iota of R&D towards an anomaly like BTC, that could quite literally disappear in 48 hours or less?

Jesus Christ Almighty you people are naive...
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chiropteran
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June 16, 2011, 03:06:59 PM
 #22


You think gargantuan multi-national corporations like AMD and Nvidia are going to divert even an iota of R&D towards an anomaly like BTC, that could quite literally disappear in 48 hours or less?

Jesus Christ Almighty you people are naive...

Yes I do, because history shows it already happens.  Are you a gamer?  If so, you might have noticed a lot of games have "nvidia: the way it's meant to be played" logos.  Guess how they get them?  Nvidia spends money working with the developers to optimize the games to work better on nvidia hardware. 

Do you think that for all that work nvidia sees anything close to 3 million in extra sales (30k units @$100 each)?  Not at all, yet they keep doing.  Because even with less extra sales, it's worth it.  History has shown, nvidia will "cater" to anything that has any chance at all of giving them a few sales.

Synaptic
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June 16, 2011, 03:15:58 PM
 #23


You think gargantuan multi-national corporations like AMD and Nvidia are going to divert even an iota of R&D towards an anomaly like BTC, that could quite literally disappear in 48 hours or less?

Jesus Christ Almighty you people are naive...

Yes I do, because history shows it already happens.  Are you a gamer?  If so, you might have noticed a lot of games have "nvidia: the way it's meant to be played" logos.  Guess how they get them?  Nvidia spends money working with the developers to optimize the games to work better on nvidia hardware. 

Do you think that for all that work nvidia sees anything close to 3 million in extra sales (30k units @$100 each)?  Not at all, yet they keep doing.  Because even with less extra sales, it's worth it.  History has shown, nvidia will "cater" to anything that has any chance at all of giving them a few sales.

You must be very young, or incredibly stupid, and likely a liberal blending of the two...

Slight bit of difference in the Video Games industry and BTC here, tiger:

One is a speculators bubble with close to zero real world adoption, and the other is A MULTI-FUCKING-BILLION DOLLAR INDUSTRY THAT'S THIRTY YEARS OLD.
chiropteran
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June 16, 2011, 04:26:02 PM
 #24


You must be very young, or incredibly stupid, and likely a liberal blending of the two...

Slight bit of difference in the Video Games industry and BTC here, tiger:

One is a speculators bubble with close to zero real world adoption, and the other is A MULTI-FUCKING-BILLION DOLLAR INDUSTRY THAT'S THIRTY YEARS OLD.

First off, please take a deep breath, close your eyes, and calm down.  This is a simple discussion on a forum, no reason to get all worked up calling people stupid and screaming in all caps.  If you just want to flame away without any logical argument you can have your "win", I won't bother to respond further.

That said, you made a false comparison.  I was comparing spending some time to optimize for BTC mining to optimizing one single game.  Not an entire industry, one game.  Nvidia puts out money and time to work with a developer of a single game just to make sure it runs better on their hardware.

Complaining that BTC mining might just collapse with the speculative bubble is itself silly, because while that may happen, it's 100% certain that a given video game's sales and popularity will spike and collapse, it's the nature of the market.  Obviously nvidia is willing to expend money to optimize a game that might be popular for 2-3 months before fading into obscurity, so I don't think it's too far fetched to say they could consider doing the same for bitcoin mining. 

Worse case, mining sputters out into obscurity in a few months, exactly like the average big budget new release video game.  Best case, it might remain popular for a few more years, or forever.  But as long as the worst case scenario for BTC mining is equal to current PC gaming projects that nvidia invests in, I don't see how your argument holds any water.

For example, here is a list of SLI optimized games.  SLI itself is a niche product, probably less than 5% of PC games run SLI, yet nvidia is putting time and effort into making these games work, some of which were huge duds.

http://www.slizone.com/object/slizone2_game.html

bitcoinminer
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June 16, 2011, 04:28:11 PM
 #25

I think at least half of us here can agree, that this is a stupid, stupid discussion that this has deteriorated into.  NewEgg cares about BTC, and make sure to keep the obsolete cards in stock that we like.  Certain manufacturers like MSI probably keep stocking up with a limited number of AMD stuff because it's consistent business.  AMD itself is unconcerned.

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.

-Warren Buffett
Synaptic
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June 16, 2011, 04:37:51 PM
 #26


You must be very young, or incredibly stupid, and likely a liberal blending of the two...

Slight bit of difference in the Video Games industry and BTC here, tiger:

One is a speculators bubble with close to zero real world adoption, and the other is A MULTI-FUCKING-BILLION DOLLAR INDUSTRY THAT'S THIRTY YEARS OLD.

First off, please take a deep breath, close your eyes, and calm down.  This is a simple discussion on a forum, no reason to get all worked up calling people stupid and screaming in all caps.  If you just want to flame away without any logical argument you can have your "win", I won't bother to respond further.

That said, you made a false comparison.  I was comparing spending some time to optimize for BTC mining to optimizing one single game.  Not an entire industry, one game.  Nvidia puts out money and time to work with a developer of a single game just to make sure it runs better on their hardware.

Complaining that BTC mining might just collapse with the speculative bubble is itself silly, because while that may happen, it's 100% certain that a given video game's sales and popularity will spike and collapse, it's the nature of the market.  Obviously nvidia is willing to expend money to optimize a game that might be popular for 2-3 months before fading into obscurity, so I don't think it's too far fetched to say they could consider doing the same for bitcoin mining. 

Worse case, mining sputters out into obscurity in a few months, exactly like the average big budget new release video game.  Best case, it might remain popular for a few more years, or forever.  But as long as the worst case scenario for BTC mining is equal to current PC gaming projects that nvidia invests in, I don't see how your argument holds any water.

For example, here is a list of SLI optimized games.  SLI itself is a niche product, probably less than 5% of PC games run SLI, yet nvidia is putting time and effort into making these games work, some of which were huge duds.

http://www.slizone.com/object/slizone2_game.html

Just so you're clear buddy, NVIDIA and AMD don't optimize a goddamn thing on their end with respect to particular game engines. They spend multiple millions of dollars developing and producing hardware optimized for the widest possible use cases.

They CONSULT with game developers on how to best use their hardware. Not the other fucking way around.

There's a giant, gaping, astronomical difference and you continue to lay bare your naivete for all to see.
chiropteran
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June 16, 2011, 04:41:19 PM
 #27


Just so you're clear buddy, NVIDIA and AMD don't optimize a goddamn thing on their end with respect to particular game engines. They spend multiple millions of dollars developing and producing hardware optimized for the widest possible use cases.

They CONSULT with game developers on how to best use their hardware. Not the other fucking way around.

There's a giant, gaping, astronomical difference and you continue to lay bare your naivete for all to see.

You are completely wrong.

http://www.firingsquad.com/news/newsarticle.asp?searchid=22191

Given your track record for making false statements, if you do choose to respond further please provide a link as some shred of evidence that you know what you are saying, otherwise I'm just going to ignore you.

Synaptic
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June 16, 2011, 04:54:57 PM
 #28


Just so you're clear buddy, NVIDIA and AMD don't optimize a goddamn thing on their end with respect to particular game engines. They spend multiple millions of dollars developing and producing hardware optimized for the widest possible use cases.

They CONSULT with game developers on how to best use their hardware. Not the other fucking way around.

There's a giant, gaping, astronomical difference and you continue to lay bare your naivete for all to see.

You are completely wrong.

http://www.firingsquad.com/news/newsarticle.asp?searchid=22191

Given your track record for making false statements, if you do choose to respond further please provide a link as some shred of evidence that you know what you are saying, otherwise I'm just going to ignore you.

From your own article:

"NVIDIA, AMD-ATI, and Intel will often send their own coders over to work in-house with the game developer for a few weeks as the game is being developed."

You stupid, stupid motherfucker...
bitcoinminer
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June 16, 2011, 05:14:37 PM
 #29

I'd like you both to post pictures of your erect penises next to a ruler, and I will judge.

Grading will be scored in the following categories:

Length
Girth
Angle of the Dangle
Skin tone
General Appeal

Points will be awarded from 1-10 in each category, with a maximum possible score of 50.  I will give the winner 5 BTC, and we will also pronounce them the winner of this thread.

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.

-Warren Buffett
Synaptic
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June 16, 2011, 05:18:39 PM
 #30

I'd like you both to post pictures of your erect penises next to a ruler, and I will judge.

Grading will be scored in the following categories:

Length
Girth
Angle of the Dangle
Skin tone
General Appeal

Points will be awarded from 1-10 in each category, with a maximum possible score of 50.  I will give the winner 5 BTC, and we will also pronounce them the winner of this thread.

Can I PM it to you instead of in open forum?
bitcoinminer
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June 16, 2011, 05:29:38 PM
 #31

lol I suppose thats agreeable if you can get your buddy to accept me as the judge and jury on this one

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.

-Warren Buffett
chiropteran
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June 16, 2011, 05:30:57 PM
 #32


From your own article:

"NVIDIA, AMD-ATI, and Intel will often send their own coders over to work in-house with the game developer for a few weeks as the game is being developed."


Nvidia coder, working for a few weeks while a game is being developed !=
"NVIDIA and AMD don't optimize a goddamn thing on their end with respect to particular game engines"

What do you think they are doing for weeks at a time that doesn't involve optimizing?  Are you really trying to argue that because nvidia does the work at the developer's location that it somehow doesn't count?  I never made any claims about how or where nvidia spends resources to optimizing games, I simply stated the fact that they do expend resources for those purposes.

You ever read the patch notes on video card drivers?

( http://sites.amd.com/us/game/downloads/Pages/radeon_win7-64.aspx )
New profiles added to this release:
                - Witcher 2 – Resolves missing NPI text and light source issues
                - Dungeons and Dragons: Daggerdale – Resolves flickering seen when running in CrossFire mode
                - Crysis 2 – Resolves image quality issues with CrossFire enabled seen the latest version of the game patch

Yes, more evidence that what I stated is simply a well known fact.  GPU manufacturers already expend resources optimizing their hardware for specific titles, some of which will only be popular for a couple months before being forgotten.


I'd like you both to post pictures of your erect penises next to a ruler, and I will judge.

 Grin

Synaptic
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June 16, 2011, 05:57:30 PM
 #33


From your own article:

"NVIDIA, AMD-ATI, and Intel will often send their own coders over to work in-house with the game developer for a few weeks as the game is being developed."


Nvidia coder, working for a few weeks while a game is being developed !=
"NVIDIA and AMD don't optimize a goddamn thing on their end with respect to particular game engines"

What do you think they are doing for weeks at a time that doesn't involve optimizing?  Are you really trying to argue that because nvidia does the work at the developer's location that it somehow doesn't count?  I never made any claims about how or where nvidia spends resources to optimizing games, I simply stated the fact that they do expend resources for those purposes.

You ever read the patch notes on video card drivers?

( http://sites.amd.com/us/game/downloads/Pages/radeon_win7-64.aspx )
New profiles added to this release:
                - Witcher 2 – Resolves missing NPI text and light source issues
                - Dungeons and Dragons: Daggerdale – Resolves flickering seen when running in CrossFire mode
                - Crysis 2 – Resolves image quality issues with CrossFire enabled seen the latest version of the game patch

Yes, more evidence that what I stated is simply a well known fact.  GPU manufacturers already expend resources optimizing their hardware for specific titles, some of which will only be popular for a couple months before being forgotten.


I'd like you both to post pictures of your erect penises next to a ruler, and I will judge.

 Grin

Dude, this all goes back to the argument about these companies doing SOMETHING for the bitcoin community.

The only thing these companies could do for bitcoining is specializing their hardware for hashing.

1.) AMD will not be altering anything in their hardware for bitcoin mining.

2.) NVIDIA will NOT be fucking altering anything in their hardware for bitcoin mining.

3.) Neither of these companies do any sort of hardware optimization for any singular or even moderately sized group of software developers. Microsoft (DX), absolutely.  Valve? Epic Games? Gamebryo? Fuck no. Bitcoin?....NO.

4.) Having a small team of programmers on hand to help with small bouts of consulting with game developers is an INFINITESIMAL portion of their operating budget.

5.) Just shut up, kid. Bitcoining means fuck all to these companies, full stop. Let it fucking go. They don't care about you, they don't give a fuck about you. Or any bitcoin miner. Unless they also buy video games...
chiropteran
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June 16, 2011, 06:02:52 PM
 #34


Dude, this all goes back to the argument about these companies doing SOMETHING for the bitcoin community.


You get proven wrong, so you try to move the goalposts.


I never specified hardware.  Software driver optimization is perfectly valid, and actually occurs- check out the 11.6 thread, some people are reporting a 1-2% gain.  Not much, but something.

Instead of arguing against the points I make you just call me a kid and try to change the subject. When it comes to getting angry over forum posts, you are the winner. Congratulations.  I'm not interested in playing that game, so I am done.

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