First signs of exhaustion of current trend

[humanitee]

It's the weekly exhaustion.

$260 was much too high, I was surprised when I woke up this morning to see it had risen that far. Panic buying I presume.
Back to $190 or thereabouts, possibly.

Then next week we go up again.

With that said, I didn't sell and I don't think this is even close to topping out.

It is the Gox lag. Price falls more the longer the lag time.

When the lag clears up the price jumps up.

I would write a trading bot to trade based upon lag time but they will be clearing that up in a day or so.

Wow, I can't believe you actually believe that Gox knows how to fix anything. I've been around since $4.00 and Gox has never, ever had their shit in order, and probably never will.

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[lebing]

Look at blockchained.com.  Almost $4m has left the order book in the past couple days.  If that isn't a sign EAs are beginning to cash out, I don't know what is.  When we look back a couple years from now, this will probably be the turning point to at the beginning of a very long and painful correction.

It didn't "leave the order book" it was used to buy coins.

Apparently because the flow of cash into gox was smaller on Wednesday than it was on Tuesday, thats enough to cause a panic.

[dg2010]

Early adopters didn't get into bitcoin because they thought they would be millionaires. They got in because they believe in it for the long haul.

Stop trying to classify peoples behavior because you have no fucking clue what the motivations are of an early adopter.

[glub0x]

buying is showing up :p

[epetroel]

Look at blockchained.com.  Almost $4m has left the order book in the past couple days.  If that isn't a sign EAs are beginning to cash out, I don't know what is.  When we look back a couple years from now, this will probably be the turning point to at the beginning of a very long and painful correction.

I agree that this is a bearish signal.  However, I think this may have had something to do with Gox's announcement about how their new trading engine would reserve funds for open orders.

For example, I have about $20,000 worth of buy orders going from $175 all the way down to $17 - that way if the price drops I'll pick up more coins.  But after hearing about the new trading engine, I already went in and cancelled a bunch of those orders since I don't want them tying up my funds unnecessarily.  I suspect many others may have done the same thing.

[Biro Bob]

It is the Gox lag. Price falls more the longer the lag time.

When the lag clears up the price jumps up.

I would write a trading bot to trade based upon lag time but they will be clearing that up in a day or so.

Mtgox trading engine lag: 1017.27s

Last time this happened there was a crash too. People see it drop - Panic - then sell!

I am a tech-nerd and I have to say that Bitcoin is one of the greatest inventions I've ever seen! This is up there with the WWW and email and possibly even higher. With a current market cap of $2 billion - it's not even close to reaching it's true potential - That may not happen this year... but I genuinely believe that Bitcoin is has way more potential and attraction to the masses than Facebook (Market Cap: $60B.)

Thats my 0.000084 cents.. er Bitcoins

[ffernandex]

well, it seems the correction is taking place. Hate to say it, but I told you so! 

[Manticore]

It's the weekly exhaustion.

$260 was much too high, I was surprised when I woke up this morning to see it had risen that far. Panic buying I presume.
Back to $190 or thereabouts, possibly.

Then next week we go up again.

With that said, I didn't sell and I don't think this is even close to topping out.

It is the Gox lag. Price falls more the longer the lag time.

When the lag clears up the price jumps up.

I would write a trading bot to trade based upon lag time but they will be clearing that up in a day or so.

No, the lag usually stems the fall. The last 4 small sell-offs stopped once the lag started. The price popped back up because Mt Gox sticks the bid/ask high during the lag and tiny bot fills go through on the inflated ask (e.g., a series of .02 BTC). That's why the price usually jumps right back up. I've watched this closely and posted data sets regarding this bizarre action. It happened today but the dump was too strong...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=170483
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=172540

[afbitcoins]

How does one predict the trend of some millionaire in China picking up a newspaper and reading about Bitcoin for the first time and having it "click"?

Same thing in any other part of the world.

There is nothing to predict when someone with a lot of money may start moving money today or wait until returning from a business trip next week.

Funny how the prediction came true though. Maybe you put too much emphasis on black swan events moving the market rather than statistical behaviour patterns

[IveBeenBit]

If price breaks below 240 may confirm reversal or trend or beginning of a correction.

Otherwise, be aware of a double-top at the 266 level, which could confirm exhaustion of current trend.

So if the price goes down, crash.
And if the price goes up, crash.

Got it.

This has been the bear argument since $15

This time it's different.

[nwbitcoin]

I am impressed by this prediction - unfortunately, like all predictions, it only has any weight once the time has passed to take action!

However, you get a credibility star - and those are worth more than bitcoins!

[arepo]

How does one predict the trend of some millionaire in China picking up a newspaper and reading about Bitcoin for the first time and having it "click"?

Same thing in any other part of the world.

There is nothing to predict when someone with a lot of money may start moving money today or wait until returning from a business trip next week.

you are mistaken. TA works precisely because of actions like these.

hint: smart money reflects underlying trends, not opposes.

[ffernandex]

I am impressed by this prediction - unfortunately, like all predictions, it only has any weight once the time has passed to take action!

However, you get a credibility star - and those are worth more than bitcoins!

Thank you! I'm glad I can contribute. I have the insight that technical analysis should work very well with bitcoins, as these are quite intangible. And, differently from the "real world" markets, we still do not have super machines doing millions of microtrades per second (cf. Goldman Sachs, high-frequency-trading) with the ability to introduce a lot of noise in the trends. BTC charts are quite clear and defined so far.

Anyway, technical analysis "predictions" are always about probabilities, not certainties.

Regarding the current correction, I see that it might still try the 105 bottom again, before resuming it's upward path. That would really set the support near the  $100 level, which I think is a very healthy correction, as it would have consolidated the first major upward trend that took the BTC from the 20s into the 100s

[2dogs]

Where can I find the same chart the OP presented in the first post?

[ffernandex]

Where can I find the same chart the OP presented in the first post?

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg10zigHourlyztgSza1gSMAzm1g24zm2g25

[alexh]

Wow, I can't believe you actually believe that Gox knows how to fix anything. I've been around since $4.00 and Gox has never, ever had their shit in order, and probably never will.

Exactly, get your money out of there.

[2dogs]

Where can I find the same chart the OP presented in the first post?

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg10zigHourlyztgSza1gSMAzm1g24zm2g25

Thank you - decent charts for bitcoins are hard to find.

[pera]

probably the most accurate analysis on Speculation... good work OP (and also proudhon)
btw MACD and SSTO are the only relevant TI imho

[ffernandex]

Regarding the current correction, I see that it might still try the 105 bottom again, before resuming it's upward path. That would really set the support near the  $100 level, which I think is a very healthy correction, as it would have consolidated the first major upward trend that took the BTC from the 20s into the 100s

I was so wrong about this though...