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Author Topic: SlipperySlope's Bubble Collapse Journal  (Read 24563 times)
SlipperySlope
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April 30, 2013, 08:20:05 PM
 #101

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Bid sum is $5 million higher than at the price peak.

But is your belief weakened by the likelihood that a great many of those bids below $120 are simply waiting to spend the cash raised when they sold earlier? My sleep-at-night bids are already there. Who here with $ at gox does not have some bids in place?

Maybe new money is waning and their lack of bids is obscured by the new bids from recent sellers. And note those new bids are relatively larger in amount due to profit taken.
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zeroday
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April 30, 2013, 08:22:01 PM
 #102

In 2005 gold became affordable to mainstream. Look at the chart what happened to its price in the subsequent years.


Bitcoin goes the same way but it takes much less time. Good look, bears, waiting for $30/btc.

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April 30, 2013, 08:23:26 PM
 #103

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Bid sum is $5 million higher than at the price peak.

But is your belief weakened by the likelihood that a great many of those bids below $120 are simply waiting to spend the cash raised when they sold earlier? My sleep-at-night bids are already there. Who here with $ at gox does not have some bids in place?

Maybe new money is waning and their lack of bids is obscured by the new bids from recent sellers.

Yeah, the truth is that taking out the money from the system is much more difficult that sending it in. Fuck, the apostille thing is crazy, the Gox guys take FOREVER to go through the docs, then you program a withdraw and it takes WEEKS to be processed... For the average Joe "cashing out" from Gox is even more difficult that buying its firts Bitcoins...

Everything needs to improve A LOT - BTC need to be widely available and easy to buy and to sell for it to be really huge. Now its very difficult for a newbie, the learning curve is sharp.

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Stephen Reed


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April 30, 2013, 08:27:54 PM
 #104

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In 2005 gold became affordable for mainstream. Look at the chart what happened to its price in the subsequent years.

Wonderful chart that would support your point except that well known gold bubbles have different time frames than yours.
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April 30, 2013, 08:28:10 PM
 #105

Bid sum is $5 million higher than at the price peak.

Inconvenient Truth(TM).

Ask sum is easy to manipulate when the price is rather stable. You just send gazillion coins to gox and list them for sale.

When it is rocky, you can't do it without risk of your coins getting eaten. That's why the ask sum was very low during the last top of 266 - only the ones actually in the business of selling dared to "ask" anything.

Bid sum is now higher than back then. Hmm... Wink

Perhaps we just continue on the adaptation curve set on January: On average, every week sees a 15% price appreciation. When we go to uncharted territory, and go to 50%-100% per week, that is bubblish and due for a correction.
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April 30, 2013, 08:30:49 PM
 #106

For the average Joe "cashing out" from Gox is even more difficult that buying its firts Bitcoins...

Everything needs to improve A LOT - BTC need to be widely available and easy to buy and to sell for it to be really huge. Now its very difficult for a newbie, the learning curve is sharp.

Everything you describe is happening.

Besides buying goxmoney is a neverending source of both profits and lulz for the otc dealers like me.
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April 30, 2013, 08:35:08 PM
 #107

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Perhaps we just continue on the adaptation curve set on January: On average, every week sees a 15% price appreciation. When we go to uncharted territory, and go to 50%-100% per week, that is bubblish and due for a correction.

Or maybe the 4-5x annual bitcoin price increase 2010 to Dec 2012 is enough to persuade your customers to buy and hold. No need to include the Jan-Feb rate which I argue is part, maybe the most important part, of the bubble.
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April 30, 2013, 08:35:39 PM
 #108

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Bid sum is $5 million higher than at the price peak.

But is your belief weakened by the likelihood that a great many of those bids below $120 are simply waiting to spend the cash raised when they sold earlier? My sleep-at-night bids are already there. Who here with $ at gox does not have some bids in place?

Maybe new money is waning and their lack of bids is obscured by the new bids from recent sellers. And note those new bids are relatively larger in amount due to profit taken.

No... that strengthens my bullishness.  If the money was moved off exchange that would be bearish.  But the fact that so many sellers are hoping to rebuy lower leads me to believe they may not have the opportunity.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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April 30, 2013, 08:38:03 PM
 #109

Why? I'm pretty sure some were still hoping to get it cheaper at $10.
And they did.
SlipperySlope
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Stephen Reed


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April 30, 2013, 08:40:58 PM
 #110

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But the fact that so many sellers are hoping to rebuy lower leads me to believe they may not have the opportunity.

That's exactly what happened back in the summer of 2011. After the first bubble peak, much of the commentary around here was 'was that the bottom?'. The bubble decline takes so long to play out because the most reluctant buyer gets the best price - and there will be a lot of buyers as you say.
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April 30, 2013, 08:48:14 PM
 #111

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In 2005 gold became affordable for mainstream. Look at the chart what happened to its price in the subsequent years.

Wonderful chart that would support your point except that well known gold bubbles have different time frames than yours.

Considering gold as long term investment, there were actually only one bubble in the winter of 1979-1980 followed panic caused by the invasion in Afghanistan. June 2011 bitcoin bubble is comparable to that.


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April 30, 2013, 10:08:07 PM
 #112

SlipperySlope is busy thinking, whether to attend my conference. I can say that we are on track to cross the ATH by May 2nd (which is Thursday this week), this would lead to exactly 3000% time compression compared to the 2011 bubble, both in the crash and the recovery part.

rpietila, reading your posts I wonder... Can I smoke some of what you are smoking? Cheesy


Sure I'll show you what I have ... if you just come and see me Wink

Do you have MARIHUANA ? (was the question "what you are smoking")
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April 30, 2013, 10:09:56 PM
 #113

SlipperySlope is busy thinking, whether to attend my conference. I can say that we are on track to cross the ATH by May 2nd (which is Thursday this week), this would lead to exactly 3000% time compression compared to the 2011 bubble, both in the crash and the recovery part.

rpietila, reading your posts I wonder... Can I smoke some of what you are smoking? Cheesy


Sure I'll show you what I have ... if you just come and see me Wink

Do you have MARIHUANA ? (was the question "what you are smoking")

I think you need something stronger than that to have his high.
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April 30, 2013, 10:13:47 PM
 #114

SlipperySlope is busy thinking, whether to attend my conference. I can say that we are on track to cross the ATH by May 2nd (which is Thursday this week), this would lead to exactly 3000% time compression compared to the 2011 bubble, both in the crash and the recovery part.

rpietila, reading your posts I wonder... Can I smoke some of what you are smoking? Cheesy


Sure I'll show you what I have ... if you just come and see me Wink

Do you have MARIHUANA ? (was the question "what you are smoking")

I think you need something stronger than that to have his high.

Just trying to recognize where we are ;-)
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April 30, 2013, 11:58:35 PM
 #115

Who here with $ at gox does not have some bids in place?

I do not. I'm all fiat on MtGox and I'll be all fiat until we reach the medium term bottom, which we haven't done yet.

While the bid sum is high, it's not growing. It is going to decrease eventually.
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Stephen Reed


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May 01, 2013, 03:51:49 AM
 #116

The most recent wave of big money buyers now has a strong motivation to sell.

SlipperySlope
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Stephen Reed


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May 01, 2013, 04:07:17 AM
 #117

$133 is half the all time high of $266 and thus could be an expected point of resistance for the price to retrace back upwards.
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This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!


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May 01, 2013, 04:36:45 AM
 #118

$133 is half the all time high of $266 and thus could be an expected point of resistance for the price to retrace back upwards.

Interesting, thanks for sharing.
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May 01, 2013, 04:43:31 AM
 #119

The most recent wave of big money buyers now has a strong motivation to sell.



Explain this 'motivation to sell'.  I don't mean to be cliche but, buy low sell high?? How are the recent wave of big money buyers motivated to sell low two days after they purchased?
SlipperySlope
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Stephen Reed


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May 01, 2013, 04:46:46 AM
 #120

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Explain this 'motivation to sell'.

Commonly, stop loss orders are used by traders to limit losses without regard to duration after purchase. Therefore, as prices drop below $135 - that I have labelled as the start of this bubble's Sucker's Rally - those dropping prices are increasingly likely to trigger stop-loss sell orders.
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