Epic bull trap in the making?

[NikolaTesla]

http://i49.tinypic.com/21cgthj.jpg

What do you think? Sustainable or not?

My thoughts: How anyone can jump right back in head first like this without any significant improvements to the exchanges is beyond me. We saw how vulnerable the market is to manipulation and how vulnerable Gox is to going down constantly and no changes have been made. All it's gonna take is another high roller cashing out and/or ddos attack to cause another drop.

[1713886751]

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[1713886751]

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[1713886751]

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[1713886751]

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[thefiniteidea]

Looks like a target of $32 as the bottom isn't far off, afterall.

Bull trap now? Probably

BIG bear trap later? Definitely

 

[NikolaTesla]

Oh yippie in the time it took me to write this thread it's dropped from 130 to 116...

[ElectricMucus]

yes for bull trap

[NikolaTesla]

I made 2.5 times my initial investment; I don't need to complain about money. I'm just calling it like it is.

[notig]

well I agree the price manipulation of the exchange is a real worry . I think they have already done a couple things though. They upgraded hardware on their server.... and as you can see from bitcoinity they only update their api or whatever at 5 minute intervals instead of all the time so that should help. Their trading lag is almost at 2 minutes again though. Not good.......

[superside]

[mmortal03]

If it drops back to $100 I'm going to buy in and then hold for the long term. I bought in at $60 today and sold at $103 thinking it was indeed a bull trap, only to see it jump up to $130 == too much stress trying to watch this 24/7. Gonna buy and hold at a psychologically important long term level of $100 and be done with it if the market gives me the chance here.

[ElectricMucus]

I like how everybody is bigmouthing their "plans".  

e: beware of thefiniteideas chart. It is purposefully misleading by omitting the magnitude of the drop in the lower "big picture" view to make it look like the pirate ponzi crunch.

[Beta-coiner1]

The price was artificially inflated by an anonymous user and deflated by an anonymous DDOS....I think the median rally is real.

[XXthetimeisnowXX]

I made 2.5 times my initial investment; I don't need to complain about money. I'm just calling it like it is.

hey everyone! come look how bearish i am!!! ya i used to be a bull but now that its down im a bear.....oh wate no if im just following the masses im a SHEEP. baaaa baaaa baaa

hahahaha
 

you will be a bull again when it goes up. or not just to spite me. ether way ....baaaa baaaaa

[alexh]

Yea, the drop had to do with the lag and the ddos, so i don't quite get all the analysis about that.

[NikolaTesla]

I made 2.5 times my initial investment; I don't need to complain about money. I'm just calling it like it is.

hey everyone! come look how bearish i am!!! ya i used to be a bull but now that its down im a bear.....oh wate no if im just following the masses im a SHEEP. baaaa baaaa baaa

hahahaha
 

you will be a bull again when it goes up. or not just to spite me. ether way ....baaaa baaaaa

Quite the opposite. I will be bull when it goes down, because that means it's undervalued. I will be bear when it goes up if I think it's too high. Such as right now.

[ElectricMucus]

Yea, the drop had to do with the lag and the ddos, so i don't quite get all the analysis about that.

Not really. The previous selloffs of the kind all resulted in quick recovery. This time it's actually a) negative press b) people actually becoming sick of BFL
I wouldn't be surprised if it was actually BFL themselves cashing out via proxies and getting ready to run.

Next thing: Look what people think of this. Even 4chan makes fun of us.
Final reason: This time it's not some shit that "just happened" like pirate, it's core infrastructure problems. The gox lag isn't because of a DDOS it's because their inept coders.
Bitinstant shutting down paypal and other options and stalling of SR sales.

[thefiniteidea]

I like how everybody is bigmouthing their "plans".  

e: beware of thefiniteideas chart. It is purposefully misleading by omitting the magnitude of the drop in the lower "big picture" view to make it look like the pirate ponzi crunch.

lol my bad, that was actually an error. i suppose I accidentally entered the date improperly into bitcoincharts. its still the 12th for me 

Thanks for the catch, fixing now.

[ElectricMucus]

I like how everybody is bigmouthing their "plans".  

e: beware of thefiniteideas chart. It is purposefully misleading by omitting the magnitude of the drop in the lower "big picture" view to make it look like the pirate ponzi crunch.

lol my bad, that was actually an error. i suppose I accidentally entered the date improperly into bitcoincharts. its still the 12th for me 

Thanks for the catch, fixing now.

nice try though. 

[thefiniteidea]

I like how everybody is bigmouthing their "plans".  

e: beware of thefiniteideas chart. It is purposefully misleading by omitting the magnitude of the drop in the lower "big picture" view to make it look like the pirate ponzi crunch.

lol my bad, that was actually an error. i suppose I accidentally entered the date improperly into bitcoincharts. its still the 12th for me  

Thanks for the catch, fixing now.

nice try though.  

meanwhile, reptilian humanoids run our planet while aliens use us to mine their gold, right?

[Kazu]

I like how everybody is bigmouthing their "plans".  

e: beware of thefiniteideas chart. It is purposefully misleading by omitting the magnitude of the drop in the lower "big picture" view to make it look like the pirate ponzi crunch.

lol my bad, that was actually an error. i suppose I accidentally entered the date improperly into bitcoincharts. its still the 12th for me 

Thanks for the catch, fixing now.

nice try though. 

?? Its the 12th here too. I probably would have entered in 12 on the charts too.

[Luckybit]

I made 2.5 times my initial investment; I don't need to complain about money. I'm just calling it like it is.

Smart people bought up more coins, while impetuous people sold their coins to those smart people.

Do not be an impetuous short term investor. Be a prudent long term investor and that is when you'll gain more than you lose on Bitcoin.

I've lost not a penny and I've gained. I'm not bragging, just saying if you take the long view no one really has lost a penny. If you take the short view you lost everything. The prices are now more than they where when I bought my first coin. At the lowest low of 77 I bought more coins, that was today. I knew it wouldn't last that low and if anyone were smart they'd have bought at those prices. Some people got coins at $50. Honestly if I had more money I would have bought hundreds of coins, but unfortunately I only had a couple hundred bucks.

[NamelessOne]

I made 2.5 times my initial investment; I don't need to complain about money. I'm just calling it like it is.

Smart people bought up more coins, while impetuous people sold their coins to those smart people.

Do not be an impetuous short term investor. Be a prudent long term investor and that is when you'll gain more than you lose on Bitcoin.

I've lost not a penny and I've gained. I'm not bragging, just saying if you take the long view no one really has lost a penny. If you take the short view you lost everything. The prices are now more than they where when I bought my first coin. At the lowest low of 77 I bought more coins, that was today. I knew it wouldn't last that low and if anyone were smart they'd have bought at those prices. Some people got coins at $50. Honestly if I had more money I would have bought hundreds of coins, but unfortunately I only had a couple hundred bucks.

This. 

[Rallye]

looks like a cup and handle, maybe we are about to break out upwards?  On second thought, I don't see there being enough confidence restored yet to move up past 130. 

[just1nmc]

looks like a cup and handle, maybe we are about to break out upwards?  On second thought, I don't see there being enough confidence restored yet to move up past 130. 

This is just a taste of next week. A lot of people are waiting out the weekend to see what happens.

[ElectricMucus]

looks like  dead cat bounce.

[Nemesis]

looks like a cup and handle, maybe we are about to break out upwards?  On second thought, I don't see there being enough confidence restored yet to move up past 130.  

This is just a taste of next week. A lot of people are waiting out the weekend to see what happens.

ahahah sorry guys, that big wall was me. Need to buy more b4 i let the train leave.

[NamelessOne]

looks like a cup and handle, maybe we are about to break out upwards?  On second thought, I don't see there being enough confidence restored yet to move up past 130.  

This is just a taste of next week. A lot of people are waiting out the weekend to see what happens.

ahahah sorry guys, that big wall was me. Need to buy more b4 i let the train leave.

I figured it might be you. +1 

[mmortal03]

looks like a cup and handle, maybe we are about to break out upwards?  On second thought, I don't see there being enough confidence restored yet to move up past 130. 

This is just a taste of next week. A lot of people are waiting out the weekend to see what happens.

If you can't get money in or out over the weekend, then you'd think the price would go up with all the new people using up their remaining cash all trying to get some bitcoins for cheap. It's a matter of how many people want completely out compared to how many new people want in. The speculators are somewhere in the middle.

[just1nmc]

looks like a cup and handle, maybe we are about to break out upwards?  On second thought, I don't see there being enough confidence restored yet to move up past 130.  

This is just a taste of next week. A lot of people are waiting out the weekend to see what happens.

ahahah sorry guys, that big wall was me. Need to buy more b4 i let the train leave.

Haha, we don't want too fast of a rise yet anyway, it was getting ridiculous.

[NamelessOne]

looks like a cup and handle, maybe we are about to break out upwards?  On second thought, I don't see there being enough confidence restored yet to move up past 130. 

This is just a taste of next week. A lot of people are waiting out the weekend to see what happens.

If you can't get money in or out over the weekend, then you'd think the price would go up with all the new people using up their remaining cash all trying to get some bitcoins for cheap. It's a matter of how many people want completely out compared to how many new people want in. The speculators are somewhere in the middle.

Last two weekends have been rallies which was a fun change of pace.

[NamelessOne]

Hehe, Nemesis will do what he wants this his market, lol.  

[ElectricMucus]

looks like a cup and handle, maybe we are about to break out upwards?  On second thought, I don't see there being enough confidence restored yet to move up past 130.  

This is just a taste of next week. A lot of people are waiting out the weekend to see what happens.

ahahah sorry guys, that big wall was me. Need to buy more b4 i let the train leave.

cut the bullshit an provide a signed message.

[just1nmc]

looks like a cup and handle, maybe we are about to break out upwards?  On second thought, I don't see there being enough confidence restored yet to move up past 130. 

This is just a taste of next week. A lot of people are waiting out the weekend to see what happens.

If you can't get money in or out over the weekend, then you'd think the price would go up with all the new people using up their remaining cash all trying to get some bitcoins for cheap. It's a matter of how many people want completely out compared to how many new people want in. The speculators are somewhere in the middle.

I agree, but plenty of people saw the price hit $60, and continued to wait for lower prices. As the weekend comes to a close, they will begin to worry about it not getting any cheaper. Also, the number of new people buying in is increasing faster than ever.

[ElectricMucus]

This day on your bull-shit channel:



 

[mmortal03]

This day on your bull-shit channel:



 

The linear line should cut through the word "happen", instead.

[Nemesis]

This day on your bull-shit channel:



 

Thanks for the graph i just did exactly like you wanted.

[ElectricMucus]

This day on your bull-shit channel:



 

The linear line should cut through the word "happen", instead.

lol the concept remains the same.

[ElectricMucus]

This day on your bull-shit channel:



 

Thanks for the graph i just did exactly like you wanted.

Look in the post above you there is a live chart until the 15th.

[Nemesis]

This day on your bull-shit channel:



 

Thanks for the graph i just did exactly like you wanted.

Look in the post above you there is a live chart until the 15th.

I'm talking about the ask wall lol

[ElectricMucus]

This day on your bull-shit channel:



 

Thanks for the graph i just did exactly like you wanted.

Look in the post above you there is a live chart until the 15th.

I'm talking about the ask wall lol

Again signed message or gtfo.
2nd: That's no depth chart.

[Nemesis]

Again signed message or gtfo.
2nd: That's no depth chart.

Poor you... no hard feeling. I can do this all night.

[ElectricMucus]

Again signed message or gtfo.
2nd: That's no depth chart.

Poor you... no hard feeling. I can do this all night.

Do what?



Reposting pic on page 3 for prosperity.

[mmortal03]

If it drops back to $100 I'm going to buy in and then hold for the long term. I bought in at $60 today and sold at $103 thinking it was indeed a bull trap, only to see it jump up to $130 == too much stress trying to watch this 24/7. Gonna buy and hold at a psychologically important long term level of $100 and be done with it if the market gives me the chance here.

Looks like I may get my wish.

[Adrian-x]

This day on your bull-shit channel:



 

There is still some space at the top for both of us.

[ElectricMucus]

This day on your bull-shit channel:



 

There is still some space at the top for both of us.

[kingcrimson]

I'm surprised people so quickly lifted it past 3 digits but it makes sense. Everyone thinks they'll be better at calling the top and cashing out on time than the last group.

[NikolaTesla]

Looks like I was right yet again.

[mmortal03]

If it drops back to $100 I'm going to buy in and then hold for the long term. I bought in at $60 today and sold at $103 thinking it was indeed a bull trap, only to see it jump up to $130 == too much stress trying to watch this 24/7. Gonna buy and hold at a psychologically important long term level of $100 and be done with it if the market gives me the chance here.

Looks like I may get my wish.

Or maybe not, as Mt Gox seems to have just Goxed again.

[NamelessOne]

If it drops back to $100 I'm going to buy in and then hold for the long term. I bought in at $60 today and sold at $103 thinking it was indeed a bull trap, only to see it jump up to $130 == too much stress trying to watch this 24/7. Gonna buy and hold at a psychologically important long term level of $100 and be done with it if the market gives me the chance here.

Looks like I may get my wish.

Or maybe not, as Mt Gox seems to have just Goxed again.

It'll ungox soonish probably and you'll get buy.  

EDIT: Did it ungox? Just bought up to 110.

[xorglub]

But that was very low volume (23 btc or so). Not what I would call a breakout...

[NamelessOne]

But that was very low volume (23 btc or so). Not what I would call a breakout...

Me neither, I can't see much as my feeds are cutting in and out. I just saw a buy to 110.

[Crypt_Current]

Heyyyyyyyy ... when's THIS bubble gonna pop? 

[mmortal03]

If it drops back to $100 I'm going to buy in and then hold for the long term. I bought in at $60 today and sold at $103 thinking it was indeed a bull trap, only to see it jump up to $130 == too much stress trying to watch this 24/7. Gonna buy and hold at a psychologically important long term level of $100 and be done with it if the market gives me the chance here.

Looks like I may get my wish.

Or maybe not, as Mt Gox seems to have just Goxed again.

It'll ungox soonish probably and you'll get buy.  

EDIT: Did it ungox? Just bought up to 110.

For a sec there, spiked, but now back down to 101.1 (and Goxed again, of course.)

[meowmeowbrowncow]

Heyyyyyyyy ... when's THIS bubble gonna pop? 

the earth will become a tiring and chaotic place full of people (increasingly where life has less value) and either governments fail us or they institute population control.


humans are profoundly irresponsible when it comes to reproduction.

[arepo]

I'm surprised people so quickly lifted it past 3 digits but it makes sense. Everyone thinks they'll be better at calling the top and cashing out on time than the last group.

some people are. my targets worked out great. 30% gains on the tiny staircase. i also sold my targets to wobber, who, if he followed them, should be sitting on similar realized profits.

[mmortal03]

If it drops back to $100 I'm going to buy in and then hold for the long term. I bought in at $60 today and sold at $103 thinking it was indeed a bull trap, only to see it jump up to $130 == too much stress trying to watch this 24/7. Gonna buy and hold at a psychologically important long term level of $100 and be done with it if the market gives me the chance here.

Looks like I may get my wish.

Or maybe not, as Mt Gox seems to have just Goxed again.

It'll ungox soonish probably and you'll get buy.  

EDIT: Did it ungox? Just bought up to 110.

Gox'd again. At least I have the limit order already in, I just want to see the damn thing go through so I can get on with the rest of my life!

[BitcoinMillionaire]

Yea, get out while you can, I'm getting back in at $30-$40

If people would only look at the technicals that understand whats happening. Macd and stoch have crossed down on the weekly chart, stay out until they turn back up.

[mmortal03]

Yea, get out while you can, I'm getting back in at $30-$40

If people would only look at the technicals that understand whats happening. Macd and stoch have crossed down on the weekly chart, stay out until they turn back up.

I hope not; I did see your other thread. I'm all in at 100, and holding for the long term.

[Adrian-x]

Heyyyyyyyy ... when's THIS bubble gonna pop? 

after the next Bitcoin Bubble, or hey according to most economists never, we can continue exponentially.

[bitcon]

it was ~$60 less than 24 hours ago.  you bears never cease to amaze me.

[mmortal03]

it was ~$60 less than 24 hours ago.  you bears never cease to amaze me.

They'll just say it will be $30 24 hours from now.

[Nemesis]

Yea, get out while you can, I'm getting back in at $30-$40

If people would only look at the technicals that understand whats happening. Macd and stoch have crossed down on the weekly chart, stay out until they turn back up.

Hellow IHeartJosh, didnt know you're on here as well

Do another vid about this crash,

[jayson3]

The "crash" did not even go below the 50 day moving average.  Traders consider that to be a short term correction in a bull market, which is often an excellent buying opportunity.  A bear market becomes more likely if the 200 day average is violated (in the mid 30s right now) and when the short term average crosses below the long term average.  

For a long term investor, the recent price spike is just noise.  If btc continues to stabilize around $100, we will have an excellent base for more same an sustainable long term games.

[yokosan]

Bull trap that is going to pop in less than 24 hours.

And yes my money is riding on that exact situation. Wish me luck.

[johnyj]

I made 2.5 times my initial investment; I don't need to complain about money. I'm just calling it like it is.

Smart people bought up more coins, while impetuous people sold their coins to those smart people.

Do not be an impetuous short term investor. Be a prudent long term investor and that is when you'll gain more than you lose on Bitcoin.

I've lost not a penny and I've gained. I'm not bragging, just saying if you take the long view no one really has lost a penny. If you take the short view you lost everything. The prices are now more than they where when I bought my first coin. At the lowest low of 77 I bought more coins, that was today. I knew it wouldn't last that low and if anyone were smart they'd have bought at those prices. Some people got coins at $50. Honestly if I had more money I would have bought hundreds of coins, but unfortunately I only had a couple hundred bucks.

These "Smart people" are smart enough to start a DDOS to create panic sell and buy low, this is a new way of market manipulation. By normal means, they could never buy so much coin (more than 2% of total coin) without push the price above $1000

[awakening]

I'm not buying at more than 50-60$.

[shsmith]

http://i49.tinypic.com/21cgthj.jpg
What do you think? Sustainable or not?

I think we are over the hump.
It is all down from here until we get back to normal.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=10&i=Hourly&c=1&s=2013-04-04&e=2013-04-14&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=EMA&m1=10&a2=EMA&m2=21&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg10zigHourlyzczsg2013-04-04zeg2013-04-14ztgSza1gEMAzm1g10za2gEMAzm2g21zvzl

[AlgoSwan]

I wouldn't be surprised if it was actually BFL themselves cashing out via proxies and getting ready to run.

I have similar analysis except I don't think they will run away but they can start sending (delivering) ASICs to the miners especially BTC/USD prices around $40-60 range.

[ElectricMucus]

I wouldn't be surprised if it was actually BFL themselves cashing out via proxies and getting ready to run.

I have similar analysis except I don't think they will run away but they can start sending (delivering) ASICs to the miners especially BTC/USD prices around $40-60 range.

That would imply they actually have products though.

[AlgoSwan]

That would imply they actually have products though.

The whole story would be like:

1. Innovation of ASICs,
2. Speculating and/or manipulating BTC prices (in order to get selling orders from miners and use that funds to speculate or manipulate more)
3. Start selling at the temporary all time high ($260)
4. Start high speed delivery of ASICs.

And finally, they can do the very same process for future innovation of new hardware either by BFL or any other new company.

It is all about profits. Anyone disagree this?

[ElectricMucus]

[snip]
It is all about profits. Anyone disagree this?

Who knows. Right now it looks like they really are incompetent enough to actually fail delivering, it could be a charade.
For me that's too many layers of deception to be actually true.

[BTC Books]

[snip]
It is all about profits. Anyone disagree this?

Who knows. Right now it looks like they really are incompetent enough to actually fail delivering, it could be a charade.
For me that's too many layers of deception to be actually true.

Yeah - I agree.  All that clever market, customer, and price manipulation just doesn't seem likely.  Past performance doesn't guarantee future performance, but incompetence does tend to be a solid leading indicator.

[XXthetimeisnowXX]

Heyyyyyyyy ... when's THIS bubble gonna pop? 

the earth will become a tiring and chaotic place full of people (increasingly where life has less value) and either governments fail us or they institute population control.


humans are profoundly irresponsible when it comes to reproduction.

Heyyyyyyyy ... when's THIS bubble gonna pop? 

the earth will become a tiring and chaotic place full of people (increasingly where life has less value) and either governments fail us or they institute population control.


humans are profoundly irresponsible when it comes to reproduction.

sounds horrible but when there is a natural disaster and lots go away....yet sad and horrible for those families, you have to agree that it is a necessary evil. never mind you don't have to agree with it. its a horrible thing but in general this earth is about done with people and it will continue to throw things at us to reduce and control the population. IMO thats why dr are not good people. they are messing with what nature and millions of years of evolution has planed. that is the natural processes of natural selection. you let people live that otherwise would not have without the modern technologies of medicine and medical advancements then you continue to have a population overwhelming the earth in every way imaginable. there will be consequences for such blatant disregard for this amazing place we have been given to live.

[Ares]

Heyyyyyyyy ... when's THIS bubble gonna pop? 

the earth will become a tiring and chaotic place full of people (increasingly where life has less value) and either governments fail us or they institute population control.


humans are profoundly irresponsible when it comes to reproduction.

Heyyyyyyyy ... when's THIS bubble gonna pop? 

the earth will become a tiring and chaotic place full of people (increasingly where life has less value) and either governments fail us or they institute population control.


humans are profoundly irresponsible when it comes to reproduction.

sounds horrible but when there is a natural disaster and lots go away....yet sad and horrible for those families, you have to agree that it is a necessary evil. never mind you don't have to agree with it. its a horrible thing but in general this earth is about done with people and it will continue to throw things at us to reduce and control the population. IMO thats why dr are not good people. they are messing with what nature and millions of years of evolution has planed. that is the natural processes of natural selection. you let people live that otherwise would not have without the modern technologies of medicine and medical advancements then you continue to have a population overwhelming the earth in every way imaginable. there will be consequences for such blatant disregard for this amazing place we have been given to live.

But it's natural for humans to want to help save other humans. Therefore it's unnatural to say doctors are evil

[Bitmeat]

You guys have forgotten already or didn't care at the time, but the "DDOS" attacks  have been happening since early March, and probably before.

Symptoms were always the same as what you saw the last couple weeks, lots of sells, and price starts to drop, mtgox lag starts starts to increase to seconds, then minutes, as at the same time the market is flooded with the tiny orders. Magically, after the lag clears, the price is stable and a little up again. Meanwhile during the high lag periods, the people mtgox has given direct access to the exchange are unaffected and can continue to accurately judge and buy/sell on the market. This isn't a conspiracy theory, mtgox has publicised this info for a while, as that's how the big boy nyse exchanges do it, and they want to be them.

At the time I thought it was MtGox themselves manipulating latency to stop price corrections before they could gather steam, but after they publicy started saying that these events were "DDOS" (notice they don't tell you whether it's a traditional hack type DDOS - e.g DNS amplification, or just someone spamming the market to break their crappy exchange) it's easy to put two and two together and realise that people smarter than mtgox are the ones doing the manipulating, and are doing it for profit.

The price was manipulated all the way up from the mid $30s, which is when I first read about one of these events that we now know as a mtgox DDOS attack. It probably happened prior to that, as systems were tested etc to make sure that the algos and people were ready.

Yet people think its only the last singularity paced 130>266 rise that's manipulation and needed correction. You are very likely going to get burnt in your ignorance. And unlike many here I will not be buying at a certain price, or selling at a certain price, so I don't have any real incentive to make you move your money in ways that I want.