The single digits believers thread

[gizmoh]

The Lag will bring down bitcoin to singularity, go check GOX lag 28 MINS and rising while bitcoin declining..

[1713571256]

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[1713571256]

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[1713571256]

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[dandirk]

The Lag will bring down bitcoin to singularity, go check GOX lag 28 MINS and rising while bitcoin declining..

Have my doubts but also my hopes:)

[Chainsaw]

A week ago, and even a day ago, I still didn't see it falling below the $30s.

When I saw this posted earlier today:

https://i.imgur.com/fZwy3xd.png

I completely reversed my position, starting around 114, on the way down to about 94.

Personally, I'd just as soon get it out of the way, so that a more sane, sustainable rally can resume.

[randrace]

Awww man, finally; Single Digits gets a thread of it's own! I am not a SD Believer, but am definitely a fan. I fear and am drawn to the idea of SD in the same way I am too post-apocalyptic fantasies. Some days I hold my Casacius coins and imagine a future where they are as worthless as Pogs.

I hope that day never comes (or do I?)

Great thread; hi proudhon! Single Digits or Bust!

[arepo]

I don't "believe" in single digits since I realize everything is just a chance.

Single digits are a strong possibility now, hell even fractional digits are possible.

you've gotta be proudhoning me

[Adrian-x]

I love ElectricMucus's Schrödinger's Cat signature, it sums up a lot.

In our macro reality you make what you want happen. I was skeptical when I got involved over 2 years ago so much so I refused to buy Bitcoin and thought if I can make some and test the economy without investing my cash it may have a chance, so I did it risk free only investing my time and ability. None the less over a long period I convinced myself this is the future. When my investment in knowledge [understanding economics and mining ] started to generate income I started to think there was a problem, and I looked for evidence to prove it.

Up until about 5 months ago I had every argument covered as to why we wouldn't stay in double digits, mainly my underlying driving motive was the economy isn't big enough, to support the price, and I still don't buy BitInstant argument that the exchange doesn't matter.

I changed my mind after reading an article someone linked to about the impending fiat collapse written before 2007 - can't find it sorry- the article made a good argument as to how scarcely could service as a store of wealth and I found it applied totally to Bitcoin.

Since then I realize Bitcoin with its fundamental problem in distribution and deflation, will primarily serve as a store of wealth and secondarily as a currency. More over a currency is the default should our growth backup economy provide to be indefinitely sustainable.

Given Schrödinger's Cat option I am open to many options the more knowledge you have the more likely one will be viable. So given we can't see the cat, you have to make a call and move on. I don't see anything to justify the single digits yet.

[proudhon]

And the sellers continue to stack those coins up.  This is playing out exactly like last time.

[Bitmeat]

https://i.imgur.com/6SOUeeM.png

And the sellers continue to stack those coins up.  This is playing out exactly like last time.

Yup, and you can bet most of the people here saying "it's crashed, definitely time to buy now, it can only go up from here" have a $125 sell order sitting on MtGox.

To get back on topic, I speculate there is a small chance of the market overcorrecting and going down into single digits, before bouncing back to 15-20. I don't see how long term single digits are possible with the sheer amount of people who are saying "fuck it, I didn't buy/didn't sell/held too long last time, this time I'm gonna buy at the bottom and sell at $50 no matter what."

For good or for bad, $266 brought a whole lot more stupid into the bitcoin pool, now just waiting for the right time to make their easy money.

I own a grand total of .15 BTC, which is basically change from using it as a currency. I will never invest until the price has stayed within a 10% range for 3 months, that's my rule. I almost bought $5000 as play money when they are at $36, but then talked myself out of it and put it into equities. Time will tell whether I was a fool or a wise investor.

[evolve]

...I believe

[keewee]

A week ago, and even a day ago, I still didn't see it falling below the $30s.

When I saw this posted earlier today:

https://i.imgur.com/fZwy3xd.png

I completely reversed my position, starting around 114, on the way down to about 94.

Personally, I'd just as soon get it out of the way, so that a more sane, sustainable rally can resume.

Looking at those charts and assuming the price follows the exact same pattern then the bottom would be at about $18. Less than $30 certainly, but not single digits

[fcmatt]

About the only time i see btc used as a currency is when ppl gladly overpay for things smiling all the while i paid in btc. I am rad!

Otherwise, gambling drugs gambling drugs.... Andddd rampant speculation.

Such a healthy situation. Btc cannot even beat western union yet for ease of transfering wealth in a usable form by laymen.

Down we go. Give it time.

Me? I sell this shit almost daily. Sucking usd out like a vacuum cleaner.

[Bit_Happy]

Possible but $25 to $34 is more likely, and not right away this will take time.

[manfred]

Me? I sell this shit almost daily. Sucking usd out like a vacuum cleaner.

Way to go, be wise mine cheap and milk the cash cow for what its worth. It the price is 20 or 200 does not matter (treat it as bankers bonus if its higher) As long as somebody buys it and you mine economical (some have zero running cost mind you) you make good money today and hopefully for a long time to come.

[chyort]

i was expecting single digits until around the 120-140 mark on the way up. But with the current difficulty, and how high it went before crashing, my bet is it will go down to the 20's.

More people will want to get in at the ground floor before the next bubble and that will keep the price up.

As far as if we will ever hit single digits. Of course, the only question is when be it 40 years from now when something better pops up, or something breaks the system tomorrow... Who knows... *Shrugs*


But yeah, people like to talk crap about fiat... But the dollar in my pocket doesn't shift value from 2 to 260, and then crash back down into the 50's in the span of months.

I don't have to worry about going from a car payment, to buying crackers for dinner over-night.  Bitcoin at this point is just like buying a lottery ticket. "Will i win big? Or will i wallpaper my bathroom with loser tickets?!?"

[furezasan]

I don't believe it will, but I'm sure as hell hope it does... I wanna buy some coins dammit!

[AlgoSwan]

But yeah, people like to talk crap about fiat... But the dollar in my pocket doesn't shift value from 2 to 260, and then crash back down into the 50's in the span of months.

You like charts and reality? Just check out historical charts on any fiat money to gold, silver, palladium or whatever like bread, gasoline, wheat, water.... should I continue? Is this crap talk?

Your volatility concern deserve attention. I'm with you on this.

[manfred]

However people are looking at bitcoins like a get rich quick scheme, which it isn't.

No people look at bitcoin as a steady cash cow. Mining them at extremely low running cost and dumping them at whatever price they can get on the day. As long as you go to work and have the dough to pay for the coins they will exchange for fiat.

[BubbleBoy]

A week ago, and even a day ago, I still didn't see it falling below the $30s.

When I saw this posted earlier today:

https://i.imgur.com/fZwy3xd.png

I completely reversed my position, starting around 114, on the way down to about 94.

Personally, I'd just as soon get it out of the way, so that a more sane, sustainable rally can resume.

Looking at those charts and assuming the price follows the exact same pattern then the bottom would be at about $18. Less than $30 certainly, but not single digits

The price will never follow the exact same pattern, the market will internalize any collective memory and will try to outsmart it. That being said, usually the downward slope of the bubble is long and drawn-out, as you can see in the "Post-bubble 1" chart above. This is basic psychology: on one hand people really want to believe the highs were based on fundamentals and they don't let go cheap of something that is "worth" 250$, on the other hand if they bought at $100+ the don't want to acknowledge their loss. I submit to you exhibits B and C, the Japanese real estate and stock bubbles:



The NIKKEY during the same period:


So no, I don't think were gonna see single digits for years to come.

[chyort]

But yeah, people like to talk crap about fiat... But the dollar in my pocket doesn't shift value from 2 to 260, and then crash back down into the 50's in the span of months.

You like charts and reality? Just check out historical charts on any fiat money to gold, silver, palladium or whatever like bread, gasoline, wheat, water.... should I continue? Is this crap talk?

Your volatility concern deserve attention. I'm with you on this.

gold, silver, palladium, are all sort of in the same group as bitcoins to me.  People gambling on where the value of an item is going to go. Don't get me wrong, people do it on everything, but some items have some intrinsic value associated with them that helps to stabilize the price, and the first three you listed don't fall into that category to me.

But, looking at a 10 year chart, gold is fairly steady, silver a bit less. Palladium has spikes a bit more common with bitcoin, but it cant even come close to matching the swings/volatility bitcoin has gone thru.
Gasoline is fairly controlled and regulated, don't fool yourself there

bread, wheat, water are all much more tangible, and while i cant find charts for them as easy, i would be shocked if they shifted value more than 50% or so in the span of months without some massive storm/whatnot disrupting the system, and prices will return to the norm relatively fast after something disrupts the system.

That is the difference at the end of the day, bitcoins are entirely intangible. The value is strictly determined by what people are willing to pay. Much more of a "So says we all!" sort of thing, which leads to swings from 2 to 260's, and back down to 50's in months. That works out to be a what, 13,000% growth, then crashing down to 20% of peak value over a week, and i doubt we have bottomed out quite yet.

I dare you to find anything else that has the same volatility as bitcoin

[AlgoSwan]

... bitcoins are entirely intangible. The value is strictly determined by what people are willing to pay. Much more of a "So says we all!" sort of thing, which leads to swings from 2 to 260's, and back down to 50's in months. That works out to be a what, 13,000% growth, then crashing down to 20% of peak value over a week, and i doubt we have bottomed out quite yet.

BTC value should be determined by supply and demand. And all we know how hard to mine BTC nowadays. Recent price volatility is normal, because manipulators (sharks) enter the town and playing with the small guys. It was so clear that this sell-off was coming: (slate article written on just before the big sell-off, Forbes and Time enter the scene, CNN almost every 12 hours written new piece of article about BTC).

I think we're entering more normal phase now. Maybe a first time in history (at least for last 100 years) people are experiencing a free market. Really free: no regulation, no manipulation, no fraud. These new generation of ASICs will change many parameters especially difficulty parameter which is very important for small guys. I mean small guys as GPU miners no matter how big their rigs, they are still small when compared to cheapest ASIC design.

Another important point have to be remembered all the time: BTC and other cryptocurrencies and its markets will change all traditional technical analysis tools of old financial community. The terminology should be modified. Example: Overbought, oversold, profit taking, etc... These words don't make too much sense to BTC and its friends. But hoarding is a word should be carefully analysed.