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Author Topic: The 2.5 million dollar Bitcoin  (Read 1237 times)
Assman
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January 18, 2017, 03:54:19 PM
 #1

There's 5 trillion USD worth of hard fiat currency in circulation.

There's 40 trillion USD worth of liquid fiat currency total (currency + checking accounts)

A 40 trillion market cap for bitcoin would mean that BTC = $2,500,000

This 40 trillion represents the whole market that bitcoin is "competing" in against fiat currency (and alt coins), and doesn't take into account BTC's use as a store of value--gold, for example, has a 4 trillion USD value.  So if fiat currency became worthless, that's the bottom for BTC (bottom because it doesn't include potential market cap hikes from the derivatives market and institutional $ investments that are to come)

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January 18, 2017, 04:07:32 PM
 #2

It's a nice thought, but you don't want bitcoin to replace fiat, that would be the end of bitcoin, here's why:
  • If fiat becomes worthless, those countries and corrupt politicians and bankers are going to seek to control bitcoin, they'll figure out a way to ruin it
  • If fiat becomes worthless, those countries and governments have probably fallen apart and we'd be in the midst of lawless times. It could even impact ones ability to have consistent electricity, which is required to transact on the blockchain

The best thing for bitcoin is for it to remain a secure alternative to fiat currency, not a dominant alternative.

Another way to think about the potential for adoption is to look at how many businesses exist in the world or a country compared to how many of those businesses accept bitcoin for payment. Bitcoin adoption is driven by people's realization that it can be used as currency just as easily as fiat.

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January 18, 2017, 05:01:04 PM
 #3

There's 5 trillion USD worth of hard fiat currency in circulation.

There's 40 trillion USD worth of liquid fiat currency total (currency + checking accounts)

A 40 trillion market cap for bitcoin would mean that BTC = $2,500,000

This 40 trillion represents the whole market that bitcoin is "competing" in against fiat currency (and alt coins), and doesn't take into account BTC's use as a store of value--gold, for example, has a 4 trillion USD value.  So if fiat currency became worthless, that's the bottom for BTC (bottom because it doesn't include potential market cap hikes from the derivatives market and institutional $ investments that are to come)

well first of all your IF is a big IF that is not going to happen.

also you are restricting your calculation to only US, you should take into consideration that the whole world is using bitcoin not US so you have to consider all the fiat currencies in the circulation not just USD.

but also at the same time i don't like this comparison because as i said fiat is not going anywhere. and in the end not all people are going to use bitcoin but they are all using fiat.

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January 18, 2017, 05:45:36 PM
 #4

There's 5 trillion USD worth of hard fiat currency in circulation.

There's 40 trillion USD worth of liquid fiat currency total (currency + checking accounts)

A 40 trillion market cap for bitcoin would mean that BTC = $2,500,000

This 40 trillion represents the whole market that bitcoin is "competing" in against fiat currency (and alt coins), and doesn't take into account BTC's use as a store of value--gold, for example, has a 4 trillion USD value.  So if fiat currency became worthless, that's the bottom for BTC (bottom because it doesn't include potential market cap hikes from the derivatives market and institutional $ investments that are to come)

well first of all your IF is a big IF that is not going to happen.

also you are restricting your calculation to only US, you should take into consideration that the whole world is using bitcoin not US so you have to consider all the fiat currencies in the circulation not just USD.

but also at the same time i don't like this comparison because as i said fiat is not going anywhere. and in the end not all people are going to use bitcoin but they are all using fiat.

I also agree with you, there is no way that Bitcoin will replace fiat money.  There will be no stupid governement that will accept bitcoin and trash their national currency.  Bitcoin will remain an alternative and this only means majority of people will be using fiat.  And that statistics of all people using bitcoin is a wishful thinking.


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January 18, 2017, 05:51:00 PM
 #5

Such a calculation could be more meaningful if done for gold (or similar) instead of fiat.
So... how much does all the gold worth?
It may get you with less than 100k/BTC, or even under 10k...

Edit: after a quick Google, if I calculated right, it would still be 500k$/BTC. WOW.

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January 18, 2017, 05:52:19 PM
 #6

It's a nice thought, but you don't want bitcoin to replace fiat, that would be the end of bitcoin, here's why:
  • If fiat becomes worthless, those countries and corrupt politicians and bankers are going to seek to control bitcoin, they'll figure out a way to ruin it
  • If fiat becomes worthless, those countries and governments have probably fallen apart and we'd be in the midst of lawless times. It could even impact ones ability to have consistent electricity, which is required to transact on the blockchain

The best thing for bitcoin is for it to remain a secure alternative to fiat currency, not a dominant alternative.

Another way to think about the potential for adoption is to look at how many businesses exist in the world or a country compared to how many of those businesses accept bitcoin for payment. Bitcoin adoption is driven by people's realization that it can be used as currency just as easily as fiat.

I believe that it is actually best if it is an alternative currency same thing as you think.  The realization of it being used as currency as easy as fiat is yet to be met.  As of now I think people have trouble adopting Bitcoin because of the complexity of using it in a normal non-computer literate people.  But I guess the time of computer illiteracy will fade soon since new generation today are well adept with computers, so maybe Bitcoin needs another time, the next generation will surely access Bitcoin easily thus making its adoption much easier.  

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January 18, 2017, 08:04:24 PM
 #7

There's 5 trillion USD worth of hard fiat currency in circulation.

There's 40 trillion USD worth of liquid fiat currency total (currency + checking accounts)

A 40 trillion market cap for bitcoin would mean that BTC = $2,500,000

This 40 trillion represents the whole market that bitcoin is "competing" in against fiat currency (and alt coins), and doesn't take into account BTC's use as a store of value--gold, for example, has a 4 trillion USD value.  So if fiat currency became worthless, that's the bottom for BTC (bottom because it doesn't include potential market cap hikes from the derivatives market and institutional $ investments that are to come)

well first of all your IF is a big IF that is not going to happen.

also you are restricting your calculation to only US, you should take into consideration that the whole world is using bitcoin not US so you have to consider all the fiat currencies in the circulation not just USD.

but also at the same time i don't like this comparison because as i said fiat is not going anywhere. and in the end not all people are going to use bitcoin but they are all using fiat.

I actually was taking the whole world into account, just reflecting the total value in terms of USD

And yes, I agree it's an incredibly speculative that it will emerge as the world's sole currency, but if it WERE to happen, this is likely an accurate valuation.

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January 18, 2017, 08:21:16 PM
 #8

Such a calculation could be more meaningful if done for gold (or similar) instead of fiat.
So... how much does all the gold worth?
It may get you with less than 100k/BTC, or even under 10k...

Edit: after a quick Google, if I calculated right, it would still be 500k$/BTC. WOW.

500k is right (approx 8 trillion in gold/16 million BTC volume)

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January 18, 2017, 08:36:42 PM
 #9

In this case (bitcoin costing 2.500.000$), each satoshi would cost 0.025$, I believe that is the purpose of bitcoin on long term and it will happen, if not with bitcoin it will happen with another crypto-currency, an altcoin.
Bitcoin has many houses because it was designed to cost a lot and work on long term as super-valorized currency. However I don't think all the money world will be crypto-currency, fiat will exist too.

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January 18, 2017, 08:56:42 PM
 #10

Do you believe OP that banks and government, so far keeping a 'wait and see' strategy will cross the fingers and wait to die? I am sure not. Some big countries UK, China, Russia has already started to experiment with blockchain so as to create their digital coins https://www.ft.com/content/f15d3ab6-750d-11e6-bf48-b372cdb1043a. Blockchain is a gift for them. Fiat will not crash but will change face; from paper to digital where banks on the one hand will dramatically reduce their costs and on the other easily will control their customers money.
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January 18, 2017, 09:09:39 PM
 #11

In this case (bitcoin costing 2.500.000$), each satoshi would cost 0.025$, I believe that is the purpose of bitcoin on long term and it will happen, if not with bitcoin it will happen with another crypto-currency, an altcoin.
Bitcoin has many houses because it was designed to cost a lot and work on long term as super-valorized currency. However I don't think all the money world will be crypto-currency, fiat will exist too.
Don't tell me the altcoin in your mind is LTC? I laughed enough now tell me another joke. not even bitcoin can someday worth more than $50k at most.
Problem with OP here is that he thinks the world is only US Smiley though I know that when I sell bitcoin locally they first convert the worth of it into fiat(dollar) and then pay me my local currency but I don't pay any fees doing it, so basically I'm selling bitcoin for my local currency.

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January 18, 2017, 09:26:57 PM
 #12

Do you believe OP that banks and government, so far keeping a 'wait and see' strategy will cross the fingers and wait to die? I am sure not. Some big countries UK, China, Russia has already started to experiment with blockchain so as to create their digital coins https://www.ft.com/content/f15d3ab6-750d-11e6-bf48-b372cdb1043a. Blockchain is a gift for them. Fiat will not crash but will change face; from paper to digital where banks on the one hand will dramatically reduce their costs and on the other easily will control their customers money.

I do not think they will wait and die and cede 100% market share, just defining the potential.  Quite frankly, I think these fiat blockchains or perhaps a dark horse alt coin pose the largest threat to bitcoin.

However, bitcoin will still remain superior to any fiat blockchain due to it's universal nature and ability to bypass state manipulation.

Continued adoption of trend makers in Silicon Valley is critical for mass adoption.  Other factors like economic instability, hyper inflation, remittances, etc., will all be ancillary drivers, as well.

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January 19, 2017, 12:33:17 AM
 #13

I want to analyze and answer the question however it is no longer necessary since there isnt a single possibility that bitcoin will replace fiat currency. If you didnt notice there are post about the news that the banks are integrating blockchain technology in the banking system. They are not just developing their transactions but actually they are on the verge of creating a fiat digital currency. With their influence and large market it is a clear fact that they will also dominate the world of digital currency. Bitcoin chance to be a legal tender has lost along with the wind.

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January 19, 2017, 02:32:15 AM
 #14

Oh my god, good analysis there. If that would happen, bitcoin being 2.5 million dollars a piece, that would really make people on here millions already. But that is still far fetched. As the value of all USD fiat currency in circulation cannot be equated equal to bitcoins. As the whole USD in circulation represent a country's gold reserve and other things. Unlike bitcoin, which is only driven by supply and demand.

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January 19, 2017, 02:40:44 AM
 #15

Such a calculation could be more meaningful if done for gold (or similar) instead of fiat.
So... how much does all the gold worth?
It may get you with less than 100k/BTC, or even under 10k...

Edit: after a quick Google, if I calculated right, it would still be 500k$/BTC. WOW.

you have a very good imagination and I expect this to happen in the future so we are all rich and we have a happy life.
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January 19, 2017, 02:50:08 AM
 #16

There's 5 trillion USD worth of hard fiat currency in circulation.

There's 40 trillion USD worth of liquid fiat currency total (currency + checking accounts)

A 40 trillion market cap for bitcoin would mean that BTC = $2,500,000

This 40 trillion represents the whole market that bitcoin is "competing" in against fiat currency (and alt coins), and doesn't take into account BTC's use as a store of value--gold, for example, has a 4 trillion USD value.  So if fiat currency became worthless, that's the bottom for BTC (bottom because it doesn't include potential market cap hikes from the derivatives market and institutional $ investments that are to come)
There is not a chance of that happening but I appreciate the effort to pull of those numbers, but even if it will never happen it show to use the tremendous potential bitcoin has for growth.

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January 19, 2017, 05:38:44 AM
 #17

There's 5 trillion USD worth of hard fiat currency in circulation.

There's 40 trillion USD worth of liquid fiat currency total (currency + checking accounts)

A 40 trillion market cap for bitcoin would mean that BTC = $2,500,000

This 40 trillion represents the whole market that bitcoin is "competing" in against fiat currency (and alt coins), and doesn't take into account BTC's use as a store of value--gold, for example, has a 4 trillion USD value.  So if fiat currency became worthless, that's the bottom for BTC (bottom because it doesn't include potential market cap hikes from the derivatives market and institutional $ investments that are to come)

Fiat currency management is not simple where calculations happen in linear fashion. Though bitcoin may have good future, there is no chance that it will replace or compete against fiat currency. Forget about fiat currency becoming worthless, it not going to happen, period. Current price level of bitcoin is around ~ $800 to ~ $900. It may take a while for bitcoin to reach $250000 level. Who knows what governments have utilized blockchain to turn table in their own favor.



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January 19, 2017, 05:56:27 AM
 #18

it is so simple, bitcoin needs adoption. and for adoption we need time.
if that happens price will go up because simply there is a limited number of coins available. and as supply stays the same and demand goes up, price rises.

but for that to happen we need bitcoin to stay alive for a long time, it needs to fix some problems such as scaleability and the way consensus works in my opinion.

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January 19, 2017, 06:53:58 AM
 #19

Good analysis but I don't see Bitcoin replacing fiat, Bitcoin is not designed for everyone just like Gold even the 21 million tokens speak for itself, $15 billion market valuation of BTC is nothing to these banks and can easily take over the network, someone even mentioned that Chinese government can decided to nationalise the mining companies in China and take over the network.


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January 19, 2017, 07:01:33 AM
 #20

I am not good in analyzing the market of bitcoin but I just follow what others said and do some research to confirm. If it will reach that level then I am sure I will be millionaire by that time. I wills start storing my bitcoin now then.

                                 
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░█▓█░               ▓█▓▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▓▓▓▓▓▓█████▓██░     ▓███░
 ▓██▓             ▒██▒▒░▒▒▒▒▒▒▒░▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒░▒▒░  ░▓█▓      ███▓
 ▒█▓█░           ▓█▓▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒░▒░▒░░░░░▒▒░ ░▒░░▓███▓      ▒███▒
  █▓█▓          ▓█▓▒▓▒▒▒▒░░░░░░░░░░░░▒▓▒▒░░▒▒▓█████░      ███▓
  ▒█▓█░        ░██▓▓▒░░░░░░░░░▒▓▒░ ░░░ ░░▒▒▓▓▓▓▓█▒█░     ▓███▒
   ▓▓▓▓        ███▒░░░░░▒░░░▒▒▒▒▒░░░░░▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▓▓ █░    ▒███▒
   ░▓▓▓▓   ░▒▒ █▓▒▒▒▒▒▓▓▓▒░▒░░░░░░░▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒░▒▒▓ ▒█    ░████▒
    ░▓▒▓▒ ░▓████▓▓▓▒▒▒▓▒░░░░░░░░░▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒  ██   ░████▒
     ▒▓▓██  ▓████▓▒▒░░░░░░░░░▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒░▒░▒▒░ ░██▒  ░████▒
      ▓████  ░██████▓▓▓▓▓▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒░░  ░███▓  ░████░
       ▒████   ▓█▓░█████▓▓▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒░░░░░░▒▓████░  ▒████▒
        ░████▒  ▒░   ▒██████▓▓▓▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▓██████▓░   ▓████▒
          ████▓         ░▒▓██████████████▓░░    ░████▓
           ▒████▒                              ▓████░
             ▓████░                          ▒████▒
              ░████▓░                      ▒████▓
                ░████▓░                  ▒████▓░
                  ░████▓░              ▒████▓░
                     ░▓████▒          ▓████▒░
                       ░▒████▓░    ▒████▓▒
                          ░▓████▓▓████▓░
                             ▒█████▓░
                               ░▒▒░
✬✬✬✬✬

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