MtGox "Cooling Off" again.

[freethink2013]

way too easy to influence the market if yopu have a lot of coin you can drive down the market just to acquire more coin.

I think they should turn off the trading api or at least limit it.

Personally I think the actual valuation of 1 btc = $150. I know I could easily offload in person in cash at that price. greed is what will destroy bitcoin. people will hoover up more and more and eventually people will just move on.

[pyedpyper]

Some observations on the recent lag situation.

After ten minutes of trading since they dropped pending orders at UTC 21.00
(that's when lag went from 50 minutes to zero), lag was back up to 8 minutes 47 seconds.

From this, we can estimate that they are recieving around like 800% to 900% more orders than they can execute.

MtGox's trading engine is congested.

(This is a separate problem from the recent, ongoing DDOS attacks.)

Meanwhile, the surplus, "pending" orders get placed in a buffer.

This buffer has some finite capacity.

As long as incoming orders > 100% capacity, lag will increase without bound, tending to infinity.



This is what traffic congestion looks like, MtGox's current situation is somwhat similar.

They will have to clear the "pending orders" buffer periodically until things cool down.

Pending orders will get wiped.

Mt Gox is currently situated on the fourteenth floor of an office building, IIRC.

They need the entire building. They need something like this:



You cannot put MtGox in the cloud, for obvious reasons.

So, in a sense they're right. This "success" is killing them.

There are no easy solutions.

The situation is well and truly fucked up.

Actually I think there are easy solutions:

Gox has no shortage of cash - just look at their daily trading volume * Bitcoin price * 1% (trade has 2 sides).

In fact they have fucking truckloads of cash.

Um buy more fucking servers perhaps?

Pay someone good to set it up right?

Am I stating the fucking obvious here??

[MatTheCat]

way too easy to influence the market if yopu have a lot of coin you can drive down the market just to acquire more coin.

I think they should turn off the trading api or at least limit it.

Personally I think the actual valuation of 1 btc = $150. I know I could easily offload in person in cash at that price. greed is what will destroy bitcoin. people will hoover up more and more and eventually people will just move on.

Yeah, the Bitcoin price needs to stagnate and thus by necessity, trend downwards for an extended period of time.

Nobody who has the best interests of Bitcoin at heart (not many) as opposed to the best interests of their own personal wealth at heart (almost everyone), could disagree with this statement. At the moment, Bitcoin has a very unappealing and suspicious smell about it and the only people who want Bitcoin to shoot back up are speculators and people who have been financially crippled through conducting real economic business using Bitcoin when the crash occurred. For Bitcoin to grow into what it is meant to be, infinitely more newcomers need to get involved in Bitcoin, preferably newcomers who intend to actually use Bitcoin to conduct business as opposed to hoard it waiting for the next bubble to be manipulated into existence.

If Bitcoin rediscovers its previous highs anytime soon, then I don't trust it and wouldn't touch it with a ten foot long shitty bargepole.

If Bitcoin stagnates and stabilises in price over an extended period, due to its previous history, I still don't trust it but would feel a lot more comfortable about putting wealth into it and using it as a medium for economic exchange.

[hobbes]

How the heck can the engine be so slow? There is less than 11000 orders in the book! Do they match orders by hand?

also:

How to reduce the number of Gox orders by 29% in the blink of an eye? I took a look at the depth.

Code:

Number of asks: 3854
Number of bids: 7071
Number of orders: 10925
Total order volume: 54871573BTC
Number of orders less than 0.100000BTC: 3175 (0.29%)
Volume of these orders: 73.04821735

https://data.mtgox.com/api/1/BTCUSD/depth/full

[rpietila]

Sucks for the people who fell for the bull trap and bought in at 110+. It's not like I didn't warn them...

Won't you please shut up or consider buying some cheap puts from me?? You could make a killing while Mt.Gox kills itself

[zarl]

Sucks for the people who fell for the bull trap and bought in at 110+. It's not like I didn't warn them...

110 is a very good price.
in long/medium perspective will bring good profit

[Scrat Acorns]

drivel

Yes, processing more than 1 order per second on an orderbook of 11k is truly beyond our technological limits.

/sarcasm off

[arepo]

Sucks for the people who fell for the bull trap and bought in at 110+. It's not like I didn't warn them...

it's not a bulltrap until the downtrend resumes. this is just trading between a range (support at high 90s, resistance at 120).

in other words, you're not right. yet.

[niko]

2 trades in and already over 1 min lag  

I'm stupid...where are you monitoring lag at?

You can see it on most live charts like ClarkMoody's or Bitcoinity.
In addition, this is the call to check it yourself: https://data.mtgox.com/api/1/generic/order/lag

The lag info is lagging:

[MatTheCat]

Sucks for the people who fell for the bull trap and bought in at 110+. It's not like I didn't warn them...

it's not a bulltrap until the downtrend resumes. this is just trading between a range (support at high 90s, resistance at 120).

in other words, you're not right. yet.

If he isn't right, then Bitcoin is destined to go up in a mushroom cloud.

[bb113]

Sucks for the people who fell for the bull trap and bought in at 110+. It's not like I didn't warn them...

it's not a bulltrap until the downtrend resumes. this is just trading between a range (support at high 90s, resistance at 120).

in other words, you're not right. yet.

If he isn't right, then Bitcoin is destined to go up in a mushroom cloud.

why?

[MatTheCat]

If he isn't right, then Bitcoin is destined to go up in a mushroom cloud.

why?

Bitcoiners tend to be enthusiasts who forget what a minority fringe phenomena that Bitcoin still is and tend to over estimate the present day significance of the coin. This is why so much drivel about the fundamentals pushing up the price during the recent bull run was disseminated and widely consumed on this forum and no doubt across the Bitcoin world.

Relatively few could recognise that a classic speculative bubble was what was actually happening, and quite probably, a bubble that was being manipulated into existence.

Yet that is what it was. If that is all that Bitcoin is to be in the future then Bitcoin will never develop any substance and will sooner rather than later, fail.

Mass investment psychology will ultimately be the kiss of death on any stock or intangible asset that isn't based on anything or forcibly held in place by some powerful third party.

Bitcoin needs real businesses and real people en masse, trading goods and services, and transferring wealth to each other, using Bitcoin. In recent times, Bitcoin couldnt be less appealing to anyone with anything other in mind than pure profit seeking speculation.

Too much speculation on any asset is a parasite on the organism which will ultimately kill it.

[NamelessOne]

If he isn't right, then Bitcoin is destined to go up in a mushroom cloud.

why?

Bitcoiners tend to be enthusiasts who forget what a minority fringe phenomena that Bitcoin still is and tend to over estimate the present day significance of the coin. This is why so much drivel about the fundamentals pushing up the price during the recent bull run was disseminated and widely consumed on this forum and no doubt across the Bitcoin world.

Relatively few could recognise that a classic speculative bubble was what was actually happening, and quite probably, a bubble that was being manipulated into existence.

Yet that is what it was. If that is all that Bitcoin is to be in the future then Bitcoin will never develop any substance and will sooner rather than later, fail.

Mass investment psychology will ultimately be the kiss of death on any stock or intangible asset that isn't based on anything or forcibly held in place by some powerful third party.

Bitcoin needs real businesses and real people en masse, trading goods and services, and transferring wealth to each other, using Bitcoin. In recent times, Bitcoin couldnt be less appealing to anyone with anything other in mind than pure profit seeking speculation.

Too much speculation on any asset is a parasite on the organism which will ultimately kill it.

It's funny how when anyone calls bitcoin a bubble, they all forgot about the 2011 'bubble' and the bubbles before it. In the media June 2011 became nothing more than a little speed bump and meant nothing to them. This correction to the trend line and eventuall higher prices will probably end up being treated the same in the future.

[MatTheCat]

It's funny how when anyone calls bitcoin a bubble, they all forgot about the 2011 'bubble' and the bubbles before it. In the media June 2011 became nothing more than a little speed bump and meant nothing to them. This correction to the trend line and eventuall higher prices will probably end up being treated the same in the future.

All the wishful thinking around here is proclaiming Bitcoin to find new highs tomorrow.

In 2011, it actually took quite a bit of time after the initial crash before Bitcoin bottomed in earnest. Since the bottom, Bitcoin took 18 months of mostly steadily (and then not so steadily) rising valuations before it hit the July 2011 high. If you are using history as your metric, then Bitcoin needs to drop to at least $20 and take at least 18 months to 'recover'. This is not what people here want to hear and so it is not going to form part of their beliefs.

[dave111223]

How the heck can the engine be so slow? There is less than 11000 orders in the book! Do they match orders by hand?

also:

How to reduce the number of Gox orders by 29% in the blink of an eye? I took a look at the depth.

Code:

Number of asks: 3854
Number of bids: 7071
Number of orders: 10925
Total order volume: 54871573BTC
Number of orders less than 0.100000BTC: 3175 (0.29%)
Volume of these orders: 73.04821735

https://data.mtgox.com/api/1/BTCUSD/depth/full

I don't understand why Gox does not take any action on this; it would be so easy to temporarily block orders under .1BTC and it would pretty much solve all problems until they change their trading engine.

Why do they continue to allow these thousands of bot micro trades all the time?

[dasein]

It's funny how when anyone calls bitcoin a bubble, they all forgot about the 2011 'bubble' and the bubbles before it. In the media June 2011 became nothing more than a little speed bump and meant nothing to them. This correction to the trend line and eventuall higher prices will probably end up being treated the same in the future.

All the wishful thinking around here is proclaiming Bitcoin to find new highs tomorrow.

In 2011, it actually took quite a bit of time after the initial crash before Bitcoin bottomed in earnest. Since the bottom, Bitcoin took 18 months of mostly steadily (and then not so steadily) rising valuations before it hit the July 2011 high. If you are using history as your metric, then Bitcoin needs to drop to at least $20 and take at least 18 months to 'recover'. This is not what people here want to hear and so it is not going to form part of their beliefs.

if only it were so easy to predict the future simply by looking at what happened last time . . .

[uuidman]

I really hope the April 17th change will make this better (https://mtgox.com/press_release_20130409.html). Question is how much of the lag that will go away.

[MatTheCat]

if only it were so easy to predict the future simply by looking at what happened last time . . .

True, but speculative bubbles do to some degree, adhere to certain characteristic phases, whether it be a protracted bubble or a flash bubble as Bitcoin was, twice!

[freequant]

It's funny how when anyone calls bitcoin a bubble, they all forgot about the 2011 'bubble' and the bubbles before it. In the media June 2011 became nothing more than a little speed bump and meant nothing to them. This correction to the trend line and eventuall higher prices will probably end up being treated the same in the future.

All the wishful thinking around here is proclaiming Bitcoin to find new highs tomorrow.

In 2011, it actually took quite a bit of time after the initial crash before Bitcoin bottomed in earnest. Since the bottom, Bitcoin took 18 months of mostly steadily (and then not so steadily) rising valuations before it hit the July 2011 high. If you are using history as your metric, then Bitcoin needs to drop to at least $20 and take at least 18 months to 'recover'. This is not what people here want to hear and so it is not going to form part of their beliefs.

And extrapolating shaky predictions from a single data point isn't wishful thinking perhaps?

[BitPirate]

drivel

Yes, processing more than 1 order per second on an orderbook of 11k is truly beyond our technological limits.

/sarcasm off

Bear in mind that the processing complexity goes up pretty much with the square of the new order volume, as for each buy/sell you scan through the others looking for matches.

Then for each match, you have to start a transaction, move balances, update the order book etc, before closing the transaction. It's quite hard (but not impossible) to parallelise this.

While gox figure out how to parallelise that though... We can help... Use other exchanges to spread the load.