How can the impact of Bitcoin prices ahead of the Lunar New Year?

[AakZaki]

Ahead of the Lunar New Year to think about how it impacts on the price of Bitcoin? According to some there are two opinions because of differences in analysis,
1. Fundamental Analysis barga said Bitcoin will continue to rise.
2. Technical analysis Bitcoin said prices will continue to decline.

What is your opinion?   

[1714050598]

1714050598

[Red-Apple]

both of them are bullshit.
because in bitcoin, no amount of analysis is going to work. we are not there yet. right now the whales decide mostly the fate of price. of course that is to some extent. and unless the market grows and exchanges see more volume we can't expect much difference.

but overall price will rise because of adoption alone.

and also the new years never had any noticeable effect so far.

[Karpeles]

For the last some years, the end of year was a time of heavy dump, but this year Bitcoin got pumped to $1100 instead. The chinese new year used to be dump time, but we can't be sure if the trend will reverse now.
That being said, I doubt we will see any big rise or fall until this issue with the People's Bank of China is solved one way or another. So I guess sideways, unless PBOC does something.

[Hazir]

2. Technical analysis Bitcoin said prices will continue to decline.

What? Can you elaborate more on that? Because I checked some technical indicators and they are not negative at all. Bullish trend is forming.
Bitcoin started to recovering after that FUD caused by PBOC intervention, when traders realized that this is nothing to be worry about.
IMO there might be slight decline because of Chinese New York next week, but we won't see any dramatic dumps.

Technical indicators I was talking about:

At first, the price broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1302 high to $707 low (data feed from SimpleFX). Later, the price managed to break the 100 simple moving average (H4) at $850. This ignited an upside move, and the price is now above $900. Moreover, the price has also settled above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1302 high to $707 low. All in all, these are positive signs, and may lift the price further higher.

[BrewMaster]

Ahead of the Lunar New Year to think about how it impacts on the price of Bitcoin? According to some there are two opinions because of differences in analysis,
1. Fundamental Analysis barga said Bitcoin will continue to rise.
2. Technical analysis Bitcoin said prices will continue to decline.

What is your opinion?   

you are a couple of days late on your number 2 speculation, the days of FUDpeculation was last week when price was coming down from $1160. now that we are rising again from $760 bottom the number 2 speculation is complete bullshit because there is no decline.

and about your main question i have to say the lunar new year just like Christmas, and other new years,... doesn't really change the price and any changes that happened from time to time are mainly coincidences.

[d5000]

Lunar New Year could possibly impact short term. So as in China it's considered an important holiday, I think there will be less influx of fresh fiat money at Chinese exchanges and perhaps a bit more sells than buys. So the price evolution could be slightly more bearish until January 28 than without this event.

But as China is less important than most people think, in my opinion other technical and fundamental questions will be more important for the Bitcoin price. For example, the end of the zero fee policy could shrink enormously the volume on Chinese exchanges and impact negatively. At the moment, I don't expect a new rally, but also it's not very probable that we will see prices of less than 5000 CNY or 720-730 USD - the most probable outcome being a sideways market for some days or even weeks.

[n691309]

Ahead of the Lunar New Year to think about how it impacts on the price of Bitcoin? According to some there are two opinions because of differences in analysis,
1. Fundamental Analysis barga said Bitcoin will continue to rise.
2. Technical analysis Bitcoin said prices will continue to decline.

What is your opinion?   

Neither Lunar new year (28 January) or New Year (1st January) does not have impact to the bitcoin price, what impacts is the holiday season where the banks does not work or something else which could delay the trading and affect a little bit the price, but in generally it doesn't make sense, even though Chinese people are hard worker and I don;t think they celebrate for weeks at this time.

[AakZaki]

2. Technical analysis Bitcoin said prices will continue to decline.

What? Can you elaborate more on that? Because I checked some technical indicators and they are not negative at all. Bullish trend is forming.
Bitcoin started to recovering after that FUD caused by PBOC intervention, when traders realized that this is nothing to be worry about.
IMO there might be slight decline because of Chinese New York next week, but we won't see any dramatic dumps.

Technical indicators I was talking about:

At first, the price broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1302 high to $707 low (data feed from SimpleFX). Later, the price managed to break the 100 simple moving average (H4) at $850. This ignited an upside move, and the price is now above $900. Moreover, the price has also settled above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1302 high to $707 low. All in all, these are positive signs, and may lift the price further higher.

indeed the opinion that need to be accommodated, I will try to always understand the market movements. although this time can only memorize one by one on technical analysis

[Nahl]

basically i don't trust those analysis and sometimes i was wondering that why some people always linking certain moment to predict bitcoin price especially such as Christmas, new year or currently china lunar new year because i mean do not have to wait untill big events on particular countries to make bitcoin rise up so i think there is no big impact for bitcoin in this this lunar new year

[AakZaki]

basically i don't trust those analysis and sometimes i was wondering that why some people always linking certain moment to predict bitcoin price especially such as Christmas, new year or currently china lunar new year because i mean do not have to wait untill big events on particular countries to make bitcoin rise up so i think there is no big impact for bitcoin in this this lunar new year

I actually belong worried to buy Bitcoin on the eve of the Lunar New Year this year to reflect on the year of its impact is always there, but somehow this year we see it.

[ethereumhunter]

actually i don't believe all about the analysis, what i can do is trying to see what is going on in the market and i think so far i can see that bitcoin price is not going to go somewhere but there is always any increase and decrease with the price so i think we can make good profit with the different and we can book much of money.

[HabBear]

Both of these analysts will be correct. (And it would be helpful if you put links to their studies so we could reference them.)

Bitcoin will go down in the near term - technical analysis refers to short term price volatility trends and we're at the highest points of the price range.

Bitcoin will go up in the long term - because as long as demand (or even demand growth) stays constant the rate of supply of bitcoin is decreasing (more so with every halving).

Ahead of the Lunar New Year to think about how it impacts on the price of Bitcoin? According to some there are two opinions because of differences in analysis,
1. Fundamental Analysis barga said Bitcoin will continue to rise.
2. Technical analysis Bitcoin said prices will continue to decline.

What is your opinion?   

Price direction is always a good question.

But to the OP, what does the lunar new year have to do with any of this?

[RoommateAgreement]

Bitcoin will go down in the near term - technical analysis refers to short term price volatility trends and we're at the highest points of the price range.

you can't generalize these things. it always depends on the situation. so bitcoin price can go up or down in near (short) term. that is how price goes up in the long.

But to the OP, what does the lunar new year have to do with any of this?

it is never the events that cause a change in price but instead what people expect from them.
with that said, this event is not so important from what i have seen and it is mostly being talked about here.

[HabBear]

I'm not new to securities analysis - technical and fundamental analysis. Technical analysis can absolutely be generalized in the way I have. Technical analysis is very, very basic....x's and o's....ups and downs....support or resistance levels. For example, this latest run-up in the BTC price stopped just short of hitting the previous high (~$1050 in late 2013). The basics of technical analysis dictate that if this last run up had passed that previous high-mark, it would have continued on it's growth trajectory. But it didn't, it held off. It couldn't break that resistance point. The next thing to look at is the next lowest support level (or low point).

Technical analysis is about quantifying or applying reason and logic to buying behavior.

Bitcoin will go down in the near term - technical analysis refers to short term price volatility trends and we're at the highest points of the price range.

you can't generalize these things. it always depends on the situation. so bitcoin price can go up or down in near (short) term. that is how price goes up in the long.

--------------------------------------

There's certainly some wisdom in your words. I like it. It's the making sense out of peoples expectations that fuels a global industry in investment analysis...and economics.

But to the OP, what does the lunar new year have to do with any of this?

it is never the events that cause a change in price but instead what people expect from them.
with that said, this event is not so important from what i have seen and it is mostly being talked about here.

[Kevin77]

I have come across some analysts are providing trading recommendations for bullion based on star sign. But I never conclude the astrology is accurate in predicting market movements.

Unless we will be having any influencing news before lunar new year, there will not be any sudden changes. Trump's policies are indirectly supporting bitcoin to keep on marching, we can see prices to reach $1000 levels again.

[Redrose]

It is today and nothing happened yet, so I think nothing will happen at all. You know, this rise was not artificial as the prvious ones may have been. At least this is what numbers of people are stating as an explanation. These people explain that India may be the reason, and I think this is right. So now that China is I think not the cause of the rise, this means that all the bitcoins they would have bought during this can not be dumped to buy things for Chines New Year.

But ! Another theory would be that if the price stays constant for Chinese New Year, that could be because unlike the previous years where Chinese used their bitcoins to buy things for their friends and family, since now and for the coming years, more and more Chinese will offer directly bitcoins.

[Raimonn]

The only impact that I think Lunar New Year festivity could have on bitcoin is less trading on chinese exchanges because chinese users are on holidays. I don't think that this event could have a big impact on prices, prices were in the same level all the week.

[Skarner21]

I think it could be the same. it doesnt matter if its lunar new year.. so i think the price of bitcoin will be just pump normal or dump..
Well we are hoping that the price will give big impact and more price increase should be happen this coming days.
Like other its just an holidays for chinese not for all.. like new year happen with us that actually it gives a large amount of pump and crash..

[lionheart78]

I think it could be the same. it doesnt matter if its lunar new year.. so i think the price of bitcoin will be just pump normal or dump..
Well we are hoping that the price will give big impact and more price increase should be happen this coming days.
Like other its just an holidays for chinese not for all.. like new year happen with us that actually it gives a large amount of pump and crash..

Bitcoin is still moving sideway, it seems Lunar New Year has no effect to the Bitcoin prices as I thought.  Aside from that PBOC had been watching the Chinese Exchanges closely which I think have some psychological effect to the people trading on those Chinese Exchanges.

both of them are bullshit.
because in bitcoin, no amount of analysis is going to work. we are not there yet. right now the whales decide mostly the fate of price. of course that is to some extent. and unless the market grows and exchanges see more volume we can't expect much difference.

but overall price will rise because of adoption alone.

and also the new years never had any noticeable effect so far.

Agreed, Whales still the Pilot of Bitcoin Price, they still have control and can do whatever they wanted with the Price of Bitcoin,  the number of people who adopted Bitcoin is not enough to push Bitcoin price way above its ATH let alone the $1k floor.

[Mr.grin]

I think both are true. I guess the lunar new year will not give the specific impact of bitcoin, because it might not encourage people to buy or sell bitcoin in very much. today, the price of bitcoin looks quite stable, and it signifies that, the lunar new year, did not leave any impact on the price of bitcoin.