6-hour forecast

[Dyaheon]

Nah, $50 is probably the bottom.

WHAT

almost fainted seeing proudhon write that?

Time to panic?

[alexh]

So much graphs, jeez.

[arepo]

So much graphs, jeez.

my apologies. my analysis ranges from lightly technical (trend/triangle/support diagrams), to very technical (indicator interpretation). i recently made a technical-indicator-free post about the geometry of the crash, along with some thorough insight about triangles.

if you're really interested in triangle consolidation patterns, you can see this post. warning: awesome fractal nesting!

[dandirk]

So much graphs, jeez.

my apologies. my analysis ranges from lightly technical (trend/triangle/support diagrams), to very technical (indicator interpretation). i recently made a technical-indicator-free post about the geometry of the crash, along with some thorough insight about triangles.

if you're really interested in triangle consolidation patterns, you can see this post. warning: awesome fractal nesting!

Just to let you know, I thought your OP was perfect...  Simple explanation with enough detail to see in the graph.

I am just starting to pick up reading EMAs MACD, Slow Stochasic, and StochRSI... well at least those are the bitcoinchart indicators I am using.  Understood most of it relating to the graph, but I just know this line should be above that line, and above 0 etc etc...

Just want to thank you for your posts... coming to really respect them.

[arepo]

So much graphs, jeez.

my apologies. my analysis ranges from lightly technical (trend/triangle/support diagrams), to very technical (indicator interpretation). i recently made a technical-indicator-free post about the geometry of the crash, along with some thorough insight about triangles.

if you're really interested in triangle consolidation patterns, you can see this post. warning: awesome fractal nesting!

Just to let you know, I thought your OP was perfect...  Simple explanation with enough detail to see in the graph.

I am just starting to pick up reading EMAs MACD, Slow Stochasic, and StochRSI... well at least those are the bitcoinchart indicators I am using.  Understood most of it relating to the graph, but I just know this line should be above that line, and above 0 etc etc...

there are some deeper intuitive rationales that are mostly untested hypotheses, but indicators are designed to be able to be used mechanically like that, as long as you pick a winning strategy. sometimes the intuitive rationale helps recognize the degenerate cases -- ie in those cases (which there always will be) that the indicators do not correlate with the strictly mechanical rules, and heuristic deviation from the formula can be profitable.

i tried to offer some thorough insight in the first link you quoted above. it's light on charts and deep on explanation. i am a physics major and so i use a physics-based model for price, and i like to use physics analogies to understand seemingly analogous phenomena in the bitcoin price function. if you're familiar with high school physics and calculus, it could really help.

--arepo

[arepo]

Just want to thank you for your posts... coming to really respect them.

i really appreciate that

i had some thoughts of doing a subscription-type service, or (because i can't stand the esotericism) post a weekly analysis for a bounty, if there is demand for such a thing. unfortunately, i cannot really post price targets in public analyses because of the anti-inductive nature of the market, but i can do general analysis for short-, mid-, and long-term projections. i recently sold some price targets during the 24 hour feeless gox session, to user Wobber, and the strategy produced 30% returns from the initial push from $90 - $120. if anyone else is interested in this, feel free to pm me.

and as always, i will continue to post what i have in the past -- comments on current market conditions through the lens of my home-grown physics model. this i can continue free for the forum's benefit, and as always, if you profit from me, please help keep it free!

-arepo

[Dr3AM$cAp3]

Great analysis!  This thread(and a few others) really helped me today,  I almost made a huge mistake buying in at 70 b/c from what I could see we had hit bottom and were on our way back up and I was missing my chance to buy in cheap.    

Thanks.   I will be studying more of this EMAs MACD, Slow Stochasic, and StochRSI thing until I actually know a bit.

i had some thoughts of doing a subscription-type service, or (because i can't stand the esotericism) post a weekly analysis for a bounty, if there is demand for such a thing.

I would be very interested in that. There is so much to learn and it's very exciting.

[Wuji]

Well we may have gone under $50 today had it not been for the OKCupid announcement.  I do think we will be there by Friday and my prediction after the burst was $30-$50 for new bottom.  Good job on the charts however, adoption and other news must always be factored in to get a full picture of where the price is headed.