Bitcoin Forum
May 23, 2019, 08:08:50 AM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 0.18.0 [Torrent] (New!)
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 [9] 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 »
  Print  
Author Topic: ASICMINER Auction: 10 Block Erupter Blades -ended-  (Read 102202 times)
shibaji
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 308
Merit: 102



View Profile
April 17, 2013, 10:28:59 AM
 #161

(6.6 + 5.5 + 4.6 + 3.9 + 3.3) + (2.8 + 2.4 + 2.0 + 1.7 + 1,4)
= 23.9 + 10.3
= 34.2

So, based on Kano's prediction, 23.9 btc earned in first 3 months, and another 10.3 earned in next 3 months. Total 34.2 btc over next 6 months. Assuming BFL ships 0 units in next 6 months.

Good luck.

Looks like people who are paying 30-40K for Avalon are not calculated risk takers ? But what do I know. Even if btc goes to 1000 usd / btc, someone is better off just holding onto btc itself - not to mention what happens if it goes to usd 10.
PLAY OVER 3000 GAMES
LIGHTNING FAST WITHDRAWALS
PLAY NOW
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1558598930
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1558598930

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1558598930
Reply with quote  #2

1558598930
Report to moderator
Pinwheel
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 378
Merit: 250


View Profile
April 17, 2013, 10:29:56 AM
 #162

2@50

Tom Waits: We should just start as soon as possible cause we might catch a rabbit before we have our pants on. (Juxtapoz)
JimiQ84
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 406
Merit: 250


View Profile
April 17, 2013, 10:35:25 AM
 #163

(6.6 + 5.5 + 4.6 + 3.9 + 3.3) + (2.8 + 2.4 + 2.0 + 1.7 + 1,4)
= 23.9 + 10.3
= 34.2

So, based on Kano's prediction, 23.9 btc earned in first 3 months, and another 10.3 earned in next 3 months. Total 34.2 btc over next 6 months. Assuming BFL ships 0 units in next 6 months.

Good luck.

Looks like people who are paying 30-40K for Avalon are not calculated risk takers ? But what do I know. Even if btc goes to 1000 usd / btc, someone is better off just holding onto btc itself - not to mention what happens if it goes to usd 10.

16% difficulty rise is not sustainable :-) This calculation predicts difficulty 40M after 6 months and total hashrate around 280-300TH/s. I don't think that will happen.
DutchBrat
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 868
Merit: 1000


View Profile
April 17, 2013, 10:37:01 AM
 #164

(6.6 + 5.5 + 4.6 + 3.9 + 3.3) + (2.8 + 2.4 + 2.0 + 1.7 + 1,4)
= 23.9 + 10.3
= 34.2

So, based on Kano's prediction, 23.9 btc earned in first 3 months, and another 10.3 earned in next 3 months. Total 34.2 btc over next 6 months. Assuming BFL ships 0 units in next 6 months.

Good luck.

Looks like people who are paying 30-40K for Avalon are not calculated risk takers ? But what do I know. Even if btc goes to 1000 usd / btc, someone is better off just holding onto btc itself - not to mention what happens if it goes to usd 10.

16% difficulty rise is not sustainable :-) This calculation predicts difficulty 40M after 6 months and total hashrate around 280-300TH/s. I don't think that will happen.

Asicminer itself has 200TH/s coming out of the foundry in the next few weeks....
cedivad
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1162
Merit: 1001



View Profile
April 17, 2013, 10:38:02 AM
 #165

16% difficulty rise is not sustainable :-) This calculation predicts difficulty 40M after 6 months and total hashrate around 280-300TH/s. I don't think that will happen.
Why? ASCISMINER alone wants to put online 1TH by the year end. I would love you to be right, but i can't find any support to your thesis.

My anger against what is wrong in the Bitcoin community is productive:
Bitcointa.lk - Replace "Bitcointalk.org" with "Bitcointa.lk" in this url to see how this page looks like on a proper forum (Announcement Thread)
Hashfast.org - Wiki for screwed customers
JimiQ84
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 406
Merit: 250


View Profile
April 17, 2013, 10:41:25 AM
 #166

(6.6 + 5.5 + 4.6 + 3.9 + 3.3) + (2.8 + 2.4 + 2.0 + 1.7 + 1,4)
= 23.9 + 10.3
= 34.2

So, based on Kano's prediction, 23.9 btc earned in first 3 months, and another 10.3 earned in next 3 months. Total 34.2 btc over next 6 months. Assuming BFL ships 0 units in next 6 months.

Good luck.

Looks like people who are paying 30-40K for Avalon are not calculated risk takers ? But what do I know. Even if btc goes to 1000 usd / btc, someone is better off just holding onto btc itself - not to mention what happens if it goes to usd 10.

16% difficulty rise is not sustainable :-) This calculation predicts difficulty 40M after 6 months and total hashrate around 280-300TH/s. I don't think that will happen.

Asicminer itself has 200TH/s coming out of the foundry in the next few weeks....

those auctioned units are part of that 200TH/s
SebastianJu
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2380
Merit: 1034


Legendary Escrow Service - Tip Jar in Profile


View Profile WWW
April 17, 2013, 10:43:27 AM
 #167

I would bid in the groupbuy if the auction wouldnt be that shortimed and i only get asicminer dividends in some more hours than the auction ends. But i made a calculation... Asicminer Shares are traded at least for 0.78BTC at the moment. The last dividend was 0.00695566. Using that dividend it would take 785 days to get the shareprice back with dividends. Of course there is the hope that Asicminer starts deploying more hashpower.
When buying one of these asics and using a difficulty of 9,672,999.92 then one would get 0.5599BTC per day. If buying such miner for 100BTC it would only take 178,6 days to get the buying price back in. Of course there is a risk that the difficulty goes higher... but the last months showed that this risk isnt high because nearly all Asicminer-Companies have problems of some kind.
So, i would bid if i would get my dividend earlier.

The lowest price is 46BTC now... its only 82,157 days to get the investment back. With higher difficulty than now. 9,000,000 instead 7,000,000. So i dont see the claims that the miners are too high valued.
Calculated at: http://dev.bitcoinx.com/profit/

Please ALWAYS contact me through bitcointalk pm before sending someone coins.
DutchBrat
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 868
Merit: 1000


View Profile
April 17, 2013, 10:44:12 AM
 #168

(6.6 + 5.5 + 4.6 + 3.9 + 3.3) + (2.8 + 2.4 + 2.0 + 1.7 + 1,4)
= 23.9 + 10.3
= 34.2

So, based on Kano's prediction, 23.9 btc earned in first 3 months, and another 10.3 earned in next 3 months. Total 34.2 btc over next 6 months. Assuming BFL ships 0 units in next 6 months.

Good luck.

Looks like people who are paying 30-40K for Avalon are not calculated risk takers ? But what do I know. Even if btc goes to 1000 usd / btc, someone is better off just holding onto btc itself - not to mention what happens if it goes to usd 10.

16% difficulty rise is not sustainable :-) This calculation predicts difficulty 40M after 6 months and total hashrate around 280-300TH/s. I don't think that will happen.

Asicminer itself has 200TH/s coming out of the foundry in the next few weeks....

those auctioned units are part of that 200TH/s

It still means total hashrate will be around 300 TH..... either because they are mining with them themselves.... or because their customers are....

So that means 300 TH without BFL in about 2 - 3 months time
SebastianJu
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2380
Merit: 1034


Legendary Escrow Service - Tip Jar in Profile


View Profile WWW
April 17, 2013, 10:46:06 AM
 #169

(6.6 + 5.5 + 4.6 + 3.9 + 3.3) + (2.8 + 2.4 + 2.0 + 1.7 + 1,4)
= 23.9 + 10.3
= 34.2

So, based on Kano's prediction, 23.9 btc earned in first 3 months, and another 10.3 earned in next 3 months. Total 34.2 btc over next 6 months. Assuming BFL ships 0 units in next 6 months.

Good luck.

Looks like people who are paying 30-40K for Avalon are not calculated risk takers ? But what do I know. Even if btc goes to 1000 usd / btc, someone is better off just holding onto btc itself - not to mention what happens if it goes to usd 10.

16% difficulty rise is not sustainable :-) This calculation predicts difficulty 40M after 6 months and total hashrate around 280-300TH/s. I don't think that will happen.

Asicminer itself has 200TH/s coming out of the foundry in the next few weeks....

those auctioned units are part of that 200TH/s

It still means total hashrate will be around 300 TH..... either because they are mining with them themselves.... or because their customers are....

So that means 300 TH without BFL in about 2 - 3 months time

I really would like you are right but i highly doubt its possible for Asicminer to stamp out such a hashingpower in such a short timeframe. It would be cool though...

Please ALWAYS contact me through bitcointalk pm before sending someone coins.
JimiQ84
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 406
Merit: 250


View Profile
April 17, 2013, 10:48:47 AM
 #170

It still means total hashrate will be around 300 TH..... either because they are mining with them themselves.... or because their customers are....

So that means 300 TH without BFL in about 2 - 3 months time

Actually current plan is to deploy 55 TH/s until end of may (which was planned until end of april at first, so it could be delayed further). When will the rest (~200TH/s) deployed is currently unknown.
shibaji
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 308
Merit: 102



View Profile
April 17, 2013, 10:48:47 AM
 #171


It still means total hashrate will be around 300 TH..... either because they are mining with them themselves.... or because their customers are....

So that means 300 TH without BFL in about 2 - 3 months time

I really would like you are right but i highly doubt its possible for Asicminer to stamp out such a hashingpower in such a short timeframe. It would be cool though...

... also Avalon batch 2, batch 3 and possible batch 4 (?)
SebastianJu
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2380
Merit: 1034


Legendary Escrow Service - Tip Jar in Profile


View Profile WWW
April 17, 2013, 10:52:07 AM
 #172


It still means total hashrate will be around 300 TH..... either because they are mining with them themselves.... or because their customers are....

So that means 300 TH without BFL in about 2 - 3 months time

I really would like you are right but i highly doubt its possible for Asicminer to stamp out such a hashingpower in such a short timeframe. It would be cool though...

... also Avalon batch 2, batch 3 and possible batch 4 (?)

Avalon batch 4... dont forget BFL will ship tomorrow... come on... you want to press down the price, but please not with such an amount of assumptions...

Please ALWAYS contact me through bitcointalk pm before sending someone coins.
Franktank
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 574
Merit: 500


For Science


View Profile WWW
April 17, 2013, 10:52:16 AM
 #173

It still means total hashrate will be around 300 TH..... either because they are mining with them themselves.... or because their customers are....

So that means 300 TH without BFL in about 2 - 3 months time

For those curious:

Update
...If we get the 60TH/s online (conservative) in late April, and the hashrate of the full network from that time is 200TH/s which linearly increases to 1,000TH/s in late December...Some may say that 1,000TH/s in the end of this year is too conservative...

Source: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg1604192#msg1604192

Rodyland
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 499
Merit: 500


View Profile
April 17, 2013, 10:52:38 AM
 #174


It still means total hashrate will be around 300 TH..... either because they are mining with them themselves.... or because their customers are....

So that means 300 TH without BFL in about 2 - 3 months time

I really would like you are right but i highly doubt its possible for Asicminer to stamp out such a hashingpower in such a short timeframe. It would be cool though...

... also Avalon batch 2, batch 3 and possible batch 4 (?)

stop gumming up the auction thread with your jibber-jabber!

Beware the weak hands!
1NcL6Mjm4qeiYYi2rpoCtQopPrH4PyKfUC
GPG ID: E3AA41E3
JimiQ84
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 406
Merit: 250


View Profile
April 17, 2013, 10:53:26 AM
 #175

It still means total hashrate will be around 300 TH..... either because they are mining with them themselves.... or because their customers are....

So that means 300 TH without BFL in about 2 - 3 months time

For those curious:

Update
...If we get the 60TH/s online (conservative) in late April, and the hashrate of the full network from that time is 200TH/s which linearly increases to 1,000TH/s in late December...Some may say that 1,000TH/s in the end of this year is too conservative...

Source: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg1604192#msg1604192



Yes, that was in plan on 9th of march. Now is 17th of april, so 6 weeks later. Plans change :-)
shibaji
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 308
Merit: 102



View Profile
April 17, 2013, 10:57:15 AM
 #176


It still means total hashrate will be around 300 TH..... either because they are mining with them themselves.... or because their customers are....

So that means 300 TH without BFL in about 2 - 3 months time

I really would like you are right but i highly doubt its possible for Asicminer to stamp out such a hashingpower in such a short timeframe. It would be cool though...

... also Avalon batch 2, batch 3 and possible batch 4 (?)

Avalon batch 4... dont forget BFL will ship tomorrow... come on... you want to press down the price, but please not with such an amount of assumptions...

I hope you have noticed the words "possible" and (?) ? You can safely exclude batch 4 (which is now in polling state), and still have batch 2 and 3.
shibaji
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 308
Merit: 102



View Profile
April 17, 2013, 10:58:26 AM
 #177


stop gumming up the auction thread with your jibber-jabber!

Thank you & good luck - we really need lots & lots of people like you - rich and fat head.
kano
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2828
Merit: 1165


Linux since 1997 RedHat 4


View Profile
April 17, 2013, 11:12:12 AM
 #178

(6.6 + 5.5 + 4.6 + 3.9 + 3.3) + (2.8 + 2.4 + 2.0 + 1.7 + 1,4)
= 23.9 + 10.3
= 34.2

So, based on Kano's prediction, 23.9 btc earned in first 3 months, and another 10.3 earned in next 3 months. Total 34.2 btc over next 6 months. Assuming BFL ships 0 units in next 6 months.

Good luck.

Looks like people who are paying 30-40K for Avalon are not calculated risk takers ? But what do I know. Even if btc goes to 1000 usd / btc, someone is better off just holding onto btc itself - not to mention what happens if it goes to usd 10.

16% difficulty rise is not sustainable :-) This calculation predicts difficulty 40M after 6 months and total hashrate around 280-300TH/s. I don't think that will happen.

Block 217728  -9% 18:41:27 23-Jan-2013 UTC 2968775.3320751
Block 219744 +10% 11:19:06 05-Feb-2013 UTC 3275464.5865656
Block 221760 +11% 00:47:50 18-Feb-2013 UTC 3651011.6306932
Block 223776 +20% 17:42:44 01-Mar-2013 UTC 4367876.0008422
Block 225792 +11% 08:32:26 14-Mar-2013 UTC 4847647.1520656
Block 227808 +38% 12:00:25 24-Mar-2013 UTC 6695826.2825963
Block 229824 +15% 17:40:43 05-Apr-2013 UTC 7672999.92016
Block 231840 +17% = 9000000 (near future)

N.B. the dates are block header times, which can be at most 7200 seconds different to the real time they were found

The current estimate is 16.9565% with 38 blocks to go

Anyway, my point being that a 16% estimate seems far from unlikely considering the first Avalon was 20-Jan and ASICMINER started ~14-Feb?
You really think both Avalon and ASICMINER are going to STOP making ASICs?

Pool: https://kano.is Here on Bitcointalk: Forum BTC: 1KanoPb8cKYqNrswjaA8cRDk4FAS9eDMLU
Discord support invite at https://kano.is/ Majority developer of the ckpool code
Help keep Bitcoin secure by mining on pools with full block verification on all blocks - and NO empty blocks!
JimiQ84
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 406
Merit: 250


View Profile
April 17, 2013, 11:15:45 AM
 #179

(6.6 + 5.5 + 4.6 + 3.9 + 3.3) + (2.8 + 2.4 + 2.0 + 1.7 + 1,4)
= 23.9 + 10.3
= 34.2

So, based on Kano's prediction, 23.9 btc earned in first 3 months, and another 10.3 earned in next 3 months. Total 34.2 btc over next 6 months. Assuming BFL ships 0 units in next 6 months.

Good luck.

Looks like people who are paying 30-40K for Avalon are not calculated risk takers ? But what do I know. Even if btc goes to 1000 usd / btc, someone is better off just holding onto btc itself - not to mention what happens if it goes to usd 10.

16% difficulty rise is not sustainable :-) This calculation predicts difficulty 40M after 6 months and total hashrate around 280-300TH/s. I don't think that will happen.

Block 217728  -9% 18:41:27 23-Jan-2013 UTC 2968775.3320751
Block 219744 +10% 11:19:06 05-Feb-2013 UTC 3275464.5865656
Block 221760 +11% 00:47:50 18-Feb-2013 UTC 3651011.6306932
Block 223776 +20% 17:42:44 01-Mar-2013 UTC 4367876.0008422
Block 225792 +11% 08:32:26 14-Mar-2013 UTC 4847647.1520656
Block 227808 +38% 12:00:25 24-Mar-2013 UTC 6695826.2825963
Block 229824 +15% 17:40:43 05-Apr-2013 UTC 7672999.92016
Block 231840 +17% = 9000000 (near future)

N.B. the dates are block header times, which can be at most 7200 seconds different to the real time they were found

The current estimate is 16.9565% with 38 blocks to go

Anyway, my point being that a 16% estimate seems far from unlikely considering the first Avalon was 20-Jan and ASICMINER started ~14-Feb?
You really think both Avalon and ASICMINER are going to STOP making ASICs?

It's easier to rise difficulty 16% when the value is 4M than when the value is 8M. And you are claiming difficulty will rise 16% when it's sitting at 34M.
SebastianJu
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2380
Merit: 1034


Legendary Escrow Service - Tip Jar in Profile


View Profile WWW
April 17, 2013, 11:19:41 AM
 #180

You really think both Avalon and ASICMINER are going to STOP making ASICs?

No, i dont think that. But judging from the past i think the plans for new hashingpower arent what happens at the end. I mean you know what the plans were for Asicminers Hashingpower, for BFLs Delivery and so on.
I really think that the winners will make a good trade.

Please ALWAYS contact me through bitcointalk pm before sending someone coins.
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 [9] 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!