Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Cyberlight]

I wouldnt be surprised to see a large part of the 850k slowly being 'found' what this does to the price however is anyone's guess

When they refund the coins  a lot of people will sold them immediatly ( losed trust in bitcoin ) also a lot of people will keep the coins.

I think the price will drop 60 to 100 dollar max for a short time.

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[JayJuanGee]

They don't, I have no idea how you just find a wallet with 200,000 BTC when others can see it on the blockchain etc. It suggest to me personally that the theories regarding lost keys or badly written key generating software are the most plausible.

I wouldnt be surprised to see a large part of the 850k slowly being 'found' what this does to the price however is anyone's guess

Remember that interview with Karpeles saying the bitcons weren't technically lost, just unavailable? Either gox are lying through their teeth or they had some seriously poor practices. I can't say which is more likely. I've found a few old wallets I'd forgotten about, and no amount of people pointng at the blockchain would have helped me remember where the private keys where. Then again, I have never been entrusted with hundreds of thousands of BTC of other people's money, so my laxness is somewhat more excusable.

That's part of the reason why analogies to individual behavior is inadequate. 

Obligations are different when dealing with other people's money, whether as a trusted individual, a corporation or a government.   

Analogies to individual behavior do NOT quite fit these other situations.... except maybe in the limited sense that an individual may logically assert that his/her behavior matters to the well-being of his/her family who entrust him/her to make wise decisions with the family assets.

[JayJuanGee]

Just bought 1 btc at 574, time will tell if this is the bottom.

I bought at 572, willing to buy more the coming days if price drops more

How many would you buy if the price went to one dollar?

For $1 BTC I think I could scrounge up about 300k without asking friends.  But it would be quicker just to ask friends.

If you had been buying BTC all the way down to $1, maybe you would NOT have any more fiat left, and maybe you would have to ask friends, no?

[KeyserSoze]

http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/21/technology/mt-gox-missing-bitcoin/index.html

[adamstgBit]

Just bought 1 btc at 574, time will tell if this is the bottom.

I bought at 572, willing to buy more the coming days if price drops more

How many would you buy if the price went to one dollar?

For $1 BTC I think I could scrounge up about 300k without asking friends.  But it would be quicker just to ask friends.

If you had been buying BTC all the way down to $1, maybe you would NOT have any more fiat left, and maybe you would have to ask friends, no?

but your friend would be freshly out of fiat as well.

[JayJuanGee]

Did anyone catch this quote from the mtgox statement.

“Taking into account the existence of the 200,000 BTC, the total number of bitcoins which have disappeared is therefore estimated to be approximately 650,000 BTC.”"

So.. its basically official that M.K. is just a complete and utter retard right? Who moves 200,000 BTC to verify they have control of bitcoin and then forgets that they exist. Does this ultimately point to the more likely possibility that M.K. just lost the private keys but had an old database backup that he eventually went and fished these 200,000 coins out of after the community pointed them out?

also... how does 850,000 missing vs 650,000 missing affect the markets?

They don't, I have no idea how you just find a wallet with 200,000 BTC when others can see it on the blockchain etc. It suggest to me personally that the theories regarding lost keys or badly written key generating software are the most plausible.

I wouldnt be surprised to see a large part of the 850k slowly being 'found' what this does to the price however is anyone's guess

I was thinking something like this would evolve also.  B/c even though it appears fairly likely, based on our current knowledge of the situation, that Mark was up to some incredible Shenanigans, he is likely realizing that he is in much bigger doo doo than he anticipated.  Surely, he has a large number of civil lawsuits, but worse, he has potential for major criminal prosecutions, too. Accordingly, b/c he values his freedom more than he values drinking cappuccinos, he is going to find more BTC and realize that those BTC were NOT stolen.. they were merely misplaced....

In the end, I will speculate (since this is the speculation thread) that GOX is going to find more than 60% of their previously lost/misplaced coins... which will be more than 500K found coins....

...or maybe it is just part of Karpeles' game and people are supposed to be *grateful* that they have at least got some coins back, and swallow the story about the rest being lost.

I would not put anything past Karpeles now.

I think Karpeles' biggest problem might be that some of the BTC inevitably belonged to some very shady people (typically gentlemen short of a finger) who might want to take him for a car ride to discuss matters.

If I were Karpeles, I would not count on ever drawing a pension.

Just my two cents; I did not have any BTC or $ in Gox.

Yes, I agree with your statement, including the fact that some shady characters may be resentful about Karpeles's behavior in this matter.... and accordingly, Karpeles has achieved very negative notoriety.   I suppose the bitcoin scene differs from fiat in that with fiat scandals, there is supposed to be legal recourse, but lots of people get screwed for greater amounts... but maybe they cannot always place a finger exactly on who caused their losing the money...   IN this regard, Karpeles has become personally notorious and equated with GOX.

[dreamspark]

but your friend would be freshly out of fiat as well.

You'd think but a large part of my friends wouldn't buy even if we went really low. Meanwhile I'd be loading up, locking them in the freezer and wait till I've got enough for my island 

[pdawg]

[Davyd05]

LoL, after a quick read...boy china just creates a stir like no other...However surprised the market kept some of their coins this time lol

[JayJuanGee]

but your friend would be freshly out of fiat as well.

You'd think but a large part of my friends wouldn't buy even if we went really low. Meanwhile I'd be loading up, locking them in the freezer and wait till I've got enough for my island  

What would you be locking in the freezer?  Your friends?  Hopefully, they would be issued space heater and oxygen, too.

[adamstgBit]

but your friend would be freshly out of fiat as well.

You'd think but a large part of my friends wouldn't buy even if we went really low. Meanwhile I'd be loading up, locking them in the freezer and wait till I've got enough for my island  

What would you be locking in the freezer?  Your friends?  Hopefully, they would be issued space heater and oxygen, too.

COLD STORAGE
ALL THE FRIENDS!

[Davyd05]

but your friend would be freshly out of fiat as well.

You'd think but a large part of my friends wouldn't buy even if we went really low. Meanwhile I'd be loading up, locking them in the freezer and wait till I've got enough for my island  

What would you be locking in the freezer?  Your friends?  Hopefully, they would be issued space heater and oxygen, too.

...but he made a pun based on the idea of cold storage requiring a Fridge/Freezer.

[adamstgBit]

bitcoin is worth more then cash.
thats a fact.

CCMF

[Davyd05]

COLD STORAGE
ALL THE FRIENDS!

Puts Adam in the freezer first. I'll just manage your coins till the big de thaw of 2020

[lumierre]

14-day RSI at rock bottom. Extremely strong buy signal.

[adamstgBit]

how did the bitcoin get to the other side of the world in a few seconds?
...
idk it fucking magic!
but i'm pretty sure this has something to do with it.

CCMF

[dreamspark]

but your friend would be freshly out of fiat as well.

You'd think but a large part of my friends wouldn't buy even if we went really low. Meanwhile I'd be loading up, locking them in the freezer and wait till I've got enough for my island  

What would you be locking in the freezer?  Your friends?  Hopefully, they would be issued space heater and oxygen, too.

...but he made a pun based on the idea of cold storage requiring a Fridge/Freezer.

Lol yes the coins , not the friends, would be in the coldest of storage.


Meanwhile support has been building some what and $1.5 mill added to the total bids sum. I've made my position clear but I do wonder how much further down we realistically will go.

I agreed with the guy yesterday who thought we'd only see $550 with some good quality FUD. That's happened so where to now ? The fact that China dumped to around $40 lower than Stamp suggests the selling on Stamp is loosing its legs a bit. The last few days of creeping downwards has felt much more like a bottom than $400 flash.

[ErisDiscordia]

how did the bitcoin get to the other side of the world in a few seconds?
...
idk it fucking magic!
but i'm pretty sure this has something to do with it.

CCMF

haha I love your style Adam 

[magicmexican]

market really likes this new move lately - fake mini-rally to the further dump

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Saturday March 22

Prediction valid for: Saturday 2014-03-22, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3447 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 566 USD.



The red and green strokes are actual hourly prices (Huobi on the left, Bitstamp on the right).  The magenta square at right is the above prediction.  The blue square next to it is the last prediction (see below). The light blue-gray squares are the older predictions.   The blue dots are the Slumber Points, the mean prices ((L+H)/2) in the interval 19:00--19:59 UTC every day. On the Huobi plot, the size of the Albertosaurus under each dot indicates the night-time activity at Huobi. Specifically, the area of the reptile is proportional S = V_h/V_d, where V_h is Huobi's mean hourly volume in the three hour period 18:00--20:59 UTC (02:00am--04:59am China time), and V_d is Huobi's daily volume 00:00--23:59 UTC on the same date.  The largest Albertosauri correspond to the S = 0.010 or greater.   The size of each blue dot (on both plots) is proportional to its reliability weight, computed from Huobi's ratio S.  The brown lines on Huobi's plot are trends fitted a posteriori to the Slumber Points. The orange line is the trend assumed for the Huobi prediction above.

The trend assuemd now is the straight line A + B*(d-d0) where d is the day of the month, d0 = 19, A = 3745.85, B = -99.49, fitted by weighted least squares to the points Mar/19--21.  (It seems that there was indeed a break in the trend between Mar/18 and Mar/19, as suspected yesterday.)

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which today was 6.09 CNY/USD.

Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Friday 2014-03-21, 00:02 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Friday 2014-03-21, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~19.5 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 3630 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3547 CNY
Error: 83 CNY (~14 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 591 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 582 USD
Error: 9 USD

NOTE: By my count I still have 1 Note credit, so there is no Note today.