Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[mooncake]

So where are we supposed to be currently on the long term log chart?

Anybody have chart?

edit: lol, ok posted just before.

Great minds think alike. 

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[aminorex]

I have been thinking about this. Newer alt coins claim they are better than bitcoin, and rightly so in terms of asic-resistance and faster confirmation. It is also possible a globally central financial organisation like IMF decides to issue its cryptocurrency in future. Therefore, it is possible for bitcoin to be overtaken by its successor.

ASIC-resistance is not a positive feature.  It means the coin is less secure than bitcoin.

Faster confirmation is not a feature.  It means the currency cannot support transaction volume similar to bitcoin.

Centralization is not a feature.  It means the currency supply will be manipulated to make you poor and the manipulators wealthy.

"Therefore" should be there for a reason.  Your "conclusion" was non sequitur.

Because I do not believe any human can have such incoherent thought processes, I conclude that you are using the propaganda technique of repetition to create FUD.  I will now ignore you.

[JayJuanGee]

i'm sure its gonna happen  if not bitcoin it will be another Bitcoin tech currency.

I have been thinking about this. Newer alt coins claim they are better than bitcoin, and rightly so in terms of asic-resistance and faster confirmation. It is also possible a globally central financial organisation like IMF decides to issue its cryptocurrency in future. Therefore, it is possible for bitcoin to be overtaken by its successor.

The interesting part is how events will play out during the transition period. The extreme case is where bitcoin value immediately drops to 0, while its successor replaces it. This is certainly unacceptable to bitcoin holders. Another scenario is where both bitcoin and its successor co-exist for a specified period, while preparation begins for the successor to replace bitcoin completely.

Any thoughts?

I think that such a succession will NOT be planned, as your hypothetical seems to suggest; however, I think that we would see it coming in such a way that we would be able to transfer our BTC assets from BTC into the new coin... without taking too heavy of a beating.. unless we wait too long before we were to accept such transition that ends up being inevitable .. and some people see the writing on the wall early and others are more difficult to convince.. and still have their my space accounts...

[klondike_bar]

i'm sure its gonna happen  if not bitcoin it will be another Bitcoin tech currency.

I have been thinking about this. Newer alt coins claim they are better than bitcoin, and rightly so in terms of asic-resistance and faster confirmation. It is also possible a globally central financial organisation like IMF decides to issue its cryptocurrency in future. Therefore, it is possible for bitcoin to be overtaken by its successor.

The interesting part is how events will play out during the transition period. The extreme case is where bitcoin value immediately drops to 0, while its successor replaces it. This is certainly unacceptable to bitcoin holders. Another scenario is where both bitcoin and its successor co-exist for a specified period, while preparation begins for the successor to replace bitcoin completely.

Any thoughts?

asic-resistance is nonsense and any coin touting it will not succeed.

the massive hashrate of the Bitcoin network on ASIC devices is key. If financial entities and professional mining firms are to arise it would be insane for them to be based on hodge-podge GPU mining. ASICs create a slick, powerful design and are already creating a market with good competition, and mining power is truly being dispersed worldwide.  (The cost of saboutauge goes up and up, including the inability to covertly do it because of the huge power draws required making it easy to pinpoint the greater mining firms in a few years from now.

It would be stupid at this point to build a 50-million-dollar, 5,000kW facility in order to attempt to overthrow the blockchain.  A year ago that would have been a real possibility

[adamstgBit]

Hey Adam... I appreciate that you get fairly specific in your outlandish comments... and largely, I agree with a lot of the sentiments of your projections and my agreement is NOT merely ditto, ditto.. but also b/c I have been doing quite a bit of reading about this bitcoin thing-a-ma-jiggy.   

Anyhow, what would you estimate some of the range of the BTC market cap possibilities would be in the 1 year, 2 year, 5 year and 10 year time-frames.    Ultimately, I am curious about how you would frame your projections.... and we are just shooting the shit here... but if you could give me your best projections, I would appreciate it.  If you are reluctant, I could go first.....  but you seem to be more experienced with bitcoin than me.. at least you've been into it longer than me... 

all i can say is bitcoin is a crazy bull and its Up and Down CRAAAZzzzy Dride but the Long Term is very bullish,

could be next year its 250 then the next 3000

could 5000
could be 100,000 in 3 years

lik it could be 98$ in 3 years then make a crazy comeback in 2020 and start a 12 year bull run to 1,000,000$ a coin,....

no one knows but most people agree butcoin long term is up up up

[podyx]

lik it could be 98$ in 3 years then make a crazy comeback in 2020 and start a 12 year bull run to 1,000,000$ a coin,....

[damnek]

Hey Adam... I appreciate that you get fairly specific in your outlandish comments... and largely, I agree with a lot of the sentiments of your projections and my agreement is NOT merely ditto, ditto.. but also b/c I have been doing quite a bit of reading about this bitcoin thing-a-ma-jiggy.   

Anyhow, what would you estimate some of the range of the BTC market cap possibilities would be in the 1 year, 2 year, 5 year and 10 year time-frames.    Ultimately, I am curious about how you would frame your projections.... and we are just shooting the shit here... but if you could give me your best projections, I would appreciate it.  If you are reluctant, I could go first.....  but you seem to be more experienced with bitcoin than me.. at least you've been into it longer than me... 

all i can say is bitcoin is a crazy bull and its Up and Down CRAAAZzzzy Dride but the Long Term is very bullish,

could be next year its 250 then the next 3000

could 5000
could be 100,000 in 3 years

lik it could be 98$ in 3 years then make a crazy comeback in 2020 and start a 12 year bull run to 1,000,000$ a coin,....

no one knows but most people agree butcoin long term is up up up

amen brother

[adamstgBit]

Hey Adam... I appreciate that you get fairly specific in your outlandish comments... and largely, I agree with a lot of the sentiments of your projections and my agreement is NOT merely ditto, ditto.. but also b/c I have been doing quite a bit of reading about this bitcoin thing-a-ma-jiggy.   

Anyhow, what would you estimate some of the range of the BTC market cap possibilities would be in the 1 year, 2 year, 5 year and 10 year time-frames.    Ultimately, I am curious about how you would frame your projections.... and we are just shooting the shit here... but if you could give me your best projections, I would appreciate it.  If you are reluctant, I could go first.....  but you seem to be more experienced with bitcoin than me.. at least you've been into it longer than me... 

all i can say is bitcoin is a crazy bull and its Up and Down CRAAAZzzzy Dride but the Long Term is very bullish,

could be next year its 250 then the next 3000

could 5000
could be 100,000 in 3 years

lik it could be 98$ in 3 years then make a crazy comeback in 2020 and start a 12 year bull run to 1,000,000$ a coin,....

no one knows but most people agree butcoin long term is up up up

lol so drunk can hardly type

BUY BUY BUY
 

[pjviitas]

i'm sure its gonna happen  if not bitcoin it will be another Bitcoin tech currency.

I have been thinking about this. Newer alt coins claim they are better than bitcoin, and rightly so in terms of asic-resistance and faster confirmation. It is also possible a globally central financial organisation like IMF decides to issue its cryptocurrency in future. Therefore, it is possible for bitcoin to be overtaken by its successor.

The interesting part is how events will play out during the transition period. The extreme case is where bitcoin value immediately drops to 0, while its successor replaces it. This is certainly unacceptable to bitcoin holders. Another scenario is where both bitcoin and its successor co-exist for a specified period, while preparation begins for the successor to replace bitcoin completely.

Any thoughts?

asic-resistance is nonsense and any coin touting it will not succeed.

the massive hashrate of the Bitcoin network on ASIC devices is key. If financial entities and professional mining firms are to arise it would be insane for them to be based on hodge-podge GPU mining. ASICs create a slick, powerful design and are already creating a market with good competition, and mining power is truly being dispersed worldwide.  (The cost of saboutauge goes up and up, including the inability to covertly do it because of the huge power draws required making it easy to pinpoint the greater mining firms in a few years from now.

It would be stupid at this point to build a 50-million-dollar, 5,000kW facility in order to attempt to overthrow the blockchain.  A year ago that would have been a real possibility

A 5MVA facility can be engineered quite easily.

The largest primary service available where I work is 6MVA.

I would say a 10MVA facility would be what your talking about...upper level government approvals would be required to get a facility of that size off the ground since transmission voltages would be required.

[podyx]

Everybody know's that it's a strong buy signal when adamstgbit becomes an alcoholic because of the depression he gets from HODLing when price is dropping

[adamstgBit]

Everybody know's that it's a strong buy signal when adamstgbit becomes an alcoholic because of the depression he gets from HODLing when price is dropping

 

[aminorex]

rapidly vanishing supply now. looks like an uptrend for at least 6 hours

[boumalo]

People are drun.k and tired in North America, we will go to sleep soon and people are waking up in Asia, they will take over

https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/447836584554266624

^ If this was bullish news the price would've gone up before the news became public.

Tweets are not news.  They are rumors.

Agree ... and we should not just follow every rumor that we hear ... or read..  

As for now... price is upredictable as it was before

And the price seems very predictable. It has been going down for months.

I understand that you think it will still go down, I disagree

[adamstgBit]

am gonna go have a few more beers, puke and then hit the hay, Can't wait for monday morning! LOL ohhh ya

Lifes good!
you only live once

yadi yadi ada

buy som fucking bitcoin!

 

[mooncake]

ASIC-resistance is not a positive feature.  It means the coin is less secure than bitcoin.

It means ASIC and non-ASIC are able to mine, thus encouraging decentralisation.

Faster confirmation is not a feature.  It means the currency cannot support transaction volume similar to bitcoin.

Slower confirmation poses a problem to the support of transaction volume.

Centralization is not a feature.  It means the currency supply will be manipulated to make you poor and the manipulators wealthy.

The only point I agree to. Imagine today IMF announces its cryptocurrency and all the governments support it, many bitcoin use cases like remittance will be irrelevant. A few like inflation-resistance will still be relevant though.

[mooncake]

I think that such a succession will NOT be planned, as your hypothetical seems to suggest; however, I think that we would see it coming in such a way that we would be able to transfer our BTC assets from BTC into the new coin... without taking too heavy of a beating.. unless we wait too long before we were to accept such transition that ends up being inevitable .. and some people see the writing on the wall early and others are more difficult to convince.. and still have their my space accounts...

It may or may not be planned. At current moment, unplanned seems more likely.

[JayJuanGee]

Maybe i am a little more nervous about this whole thing, also, b/c my initial starting buy-in price was $1,200.. and the price has been downwardly trajectory since i started, and I have been ratcheting my numbers, ever since I started to try to bring down my average buy-in price, within my budget.... If I had NOT started at the ATH, my situation would be much better and likely being closer to being in the black, rather than being in the red. Currently, I am at an average $682 buy in price.... which is much more comfortable than a $1,200 average buy in price... that's for sure.

If you are convinced in the extrapolation, you will be fine.

Actually, I agree with some kind of a priceline similar to the graph that you provided, and I suppose my long-term bullish sentiment regarding bitcoin is why I got in when and how I did. 

I had heard about bitcoin, but I had NOT really given it very much thought, so I did NOT really know details. 

Then in about early to mid November 2013, I had gotten into an investment and quasi-political discussion with someone who had bought about 60 or so bitcoins when the price was $30.  He was bragging to some extent about how smart of an investment bitcoin was, and that I needed to hedge against the dollar.  Actually, some of his understandings about investments seemed to be misplaced but he was very passionate about bitcoin.  I knew that my current investment portfolio was in need of hedging regarding the dollar.. 

While he continued to brag about that the fact that bitcoin had gone up so much that it was going to continue to go up.  I certainly took those kinds of claims with a grain of salt b/c I have this sense that if something has been going up a lot, then that may NOT be a good time to invest in that particular asset class. 

Therefore, I began to read up on bitcoin over the next couple of weeks.. while the price was continuing to go up.  That is why I ended up buying in the end of November, but I was convinced that the fundamentals of bitcoin was making it a good investment from the materials I had been reading, but I was NOT necessarily convinced that it would be a good short-term investment.. in the end of November 2013...   

That is why I started my exploration of BTC with only $1,500 off of localbitcoins.com, which at the time was about 1.24 BTC... and little by little from there on.. even though I had more than $20K that I could have invested, I did NOT want to put in my total fiat at that time.... b/c at that point, I was still trying to learn about the buying and selling vehicles process, as well... and I was skeptical about getting into something too heavily that had just had an amazing run in November 2013.

Maybe as soon as one or two weeks, we will be in the $700 territory, again... .. but yes it is possible that we could linger in these lower numbers for weeks or even months.. due to the little amount of money that is needed to manipulate such a segment with such a small market cap... BTC is only at 7 billion currently... and probably less than 10% of that is being traded or otherwise actively used.

[JayJuanGee]

Hey Adam... I appreciate that you get fairly specific in your outlandish comments... and largely, I agree with a lot of the sentiments of your projections and my agreement is NOT merely ditto, ditto.. but also b/c I have been doing quite a bit of reading about this bitcoin thing-a-ma-jiggy.   

Anyhow, what would you estimate some of the range of the BTC market cap possibilities would be in the 1 year, 2 year, 5 year and 10 year time-frames.    Ultimately, I am curious about how you would frame your projections.... and we are just shooting the shit here... but if you could give me your best projections, I would appreciate it.  If you are reluctant, I could go first.....  but you seem to be more experienced with bitcoin than me.. at least you've been into it longer than me... 

all i can say is bitcoin is a crazy bull and its Up and Down CRAAAZzzzy Dride but the Long Term is very bullish,

could be next year its 250 then the next 3000

could 5000
could be 100,000 in 3 years

lik it could be 98$ in 3 years then make a crazy comeback in 2020 and start a 12 year bull run to 1,000,000$ a coin,....

no one knows but most people agree butcoin long term is up up up

Even though you are all over the place with your prediction, I am feeling it to some extent.  My ranges would have been a little more narrow... but generally an upward trajectory.. I doubt that we are going to have as many crazy ass wild swings once bitcoin is more established and once it has a larger market cap... but we may be in for a few heavy duty challenges that will truly attempt to undermine the whole thing, along with prices going down to accompany such attacks on bitcoin.

[JayJuanGee]

Hey Adam... I appreciate that you get fairly specific in your outlandish comments... and largely, I agree with a lot of the sentiments of your projections and my agreement is NOT merely ditto, ditto.. but also b/c I have been doing quite a bit of reading about this bitcoin thing-a-ma-jiggy.  

Anyhow, what would you estimate some of the range of the BTC market cap possibilities would be in the 1 year, 2 year, 5 year and 10 year time-frames.    Ultimately, I am curious about how you would frame your projections.... and we are just shooting the shit here... but if you could give me your best projections, I would appreciate it.  If you are reluctant, I could go first.....  but you seem to be more experienced with bitcoin than me.. at least you've been into it longer than me...  

all i can say is bitcoin is a crazy bull and its Up and Down CRAAAZzzzy Dride but the Long Term is very bullish,

could be next year its 250 then the next 3000

could 5000
could be 100,000 in 3 years

lik it could be 98$ in 3 years then make a crazy comeback in 2020 and start a 12 year bull run to 1,000,000$ a coin,....

no one knows but most people agree butcoin long term is up up up

lol so drunk can hardly type

BUY BUY BUY
 

YOU are still making sense though.. .Just dont fall asleep on the SELL, SELL, SELL button - b/c then we will all be in trouble.   

[JayJuanGee]

Centralization is not a feature.  It means the currency supply will be manipulated to make you poor and the manipulators wealthy.

The only point I agree to. Imagine today IMF announces its cryptocurrency and all the governments support it, many bitcoin use cases like remittance will be irrelevant. A few like inflation-resistance will still be relevant though.

Mooncake... Is your point that people could gravitate over to an IMF -type coint.. yeah right.. no one is really going to have confidence in any government sponsored coin... so they would definitely have to be manipulative,  tricky and coercive in order to get people to adopt it.. but NO real people are really gonna trust it.. so bitcoin will still win over some kind of government sponsored alt coin.