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Poll
Question: How much of your corn do you plan on cashing out in the next massive bull run?
None - 27 (20.3%)
1-10% - 18 (13.5%)
11-20% - 15 (11.3%)
21-30% - 19 (14.3%)
31-40% - 7 (5.3%)
41-50% - 14 (10.5%)
51-60% - 9 (6.8%)
61-70% - 5 (3.8%)
71-80% - 4 (3%)
81-90% - 2 (1.5%)
91-99% - 3 (2.3%)
100% - 10 (7.5%)
Total Voters: 133

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21790627 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (148 posts by 37 users deleted.)
lebing
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April 24, 2013, 08:38:48 AM
 #1101

This is quite scary. Let's analyze the facts:

  • the interest in bitcoin is fading out after the crash, just check the google trend: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q
  • there's still a lot of money at Gox, a lot of fresh money was delayed because of their epic queue, but you can bet that from now on the flow of fresh money will be slower (just check the google trend)

I think this rally needs to be supported by REAL news that improve the fundamentals, otherwise it will be just a trap before a slow decline.

IMHO, the best news would be a new company offering unlimited amounts of BTC for cash immediately - buying your first BTC is still slow and painful, and the first one changing that fact will really boost BTC.
The google thing isn't all that surprising. People saw the price drop and lost their excitement. It'll come back eventually and many will have missed the train.

Yep - and then the bubble will start over again. The impressive thing is that we are putting in the floor right now - i.e. the next hype leg up hasnt even started yet. Once that starts again... hold on.
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April 24, 2013, 08:39:50 AM
 #1102

This is quite scary. Let's analyze the facts:

  • the interest in bitcoin is fading out after the crash, just check the google trend: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q
  • there's still a lot of money at Gox, a lot of fresh money was delayed because of their epic queue, but you can bet that from now on the flow of fresh money will be slower (just check the google trend)

I think this rally needs to be supported by REAL news that improve the fundamentals, otherwise it will be just a trap before a slow decline.

IMHO, the best news would be a new company offering unlimited amounts of BTC for cash immediately - buying your first BTC is still slow and painful, and the first one changing that fact will really boost BTC.
The google thing isn't all that surprising. People saw the price drop and lost their excitement. It'll come back eventually and many will have missed the train.

Well, people loosing their excitement is a fact; people coming back massively after a "cool down" and a growth in fundamentals (more bitcoin businesses, etc.) is also very probable.

But this does not invalidate the fact that this short term rally seems unsustainable and a trap. Investors who were delayed by the queue at Gox and got their money in after the crash (we are speaking about MILLIONS of $ and many thousands of individuals) are not going to be in the mood for "buy and hold" like at the beginning of the bubble.

Again, the market is so illiquid that a big dump can take us all the way back to $50ish in the blink of an eye. And I don't see the enthusiasm to prevent that from happening.
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April 24, 2013, 08:42:55 AM
 #1103

This is quite scary. Let's analyze the facts:

  • the interest in bitcoin is fading out after the crash, just check the google trend: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q
  • there's still a lot of money at Gox, a lot of fresh money was delayed because of their epic queue, but you can bet that from now on the flow of fresh money will be slower (just check the google trend)

I think this rally needs to be supported by REAL news that improve the fundamentals, otherwise it will be just a trap before a slow decline.

IMHO, the best news would be a new company offering unlimited amounts of BTC for cash immediately - buying your first BTC is still slow and painful, and the first one changing that fact will really boost BTC.
I am fairly convinced that the causality is the opposite of what you describe. Sure, price and number of Google searches are correlated but correlation does not imply causation. It is rising prices that drive interest, not the other way around.
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April 24, 2013, 08:46:22 AM
 #1104

This is quite scary. Let's analyze the facts:

  • the interest in bitcoin is fading out after the crash, just check the google trend: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q
  • there's still a lot of money at Gox, a lot of fresh money was delayed because of their epic queue, but you can bet that from now on the flow of fresh money will be slower (just check the google trend)

I think this rally needs to be supported by REAL news that improve the fundamentals, otherwise it will be just a trap before a slow decline.

IMHO, the best news would be a new company offering unlimited amounts of BTC for cash immediately - buying your first BTC is still slow and painful, and the first one changing that fact will really boost BTC.
The google thing isn't all that surprising. People saw the price drop and lost their excitement. It'll come back eventually and many will have missed the train.

Well, people loosing their excitement is a fact; people coming back massively after a "cool down" and a growth in fundamentals (more bitcoin businesses, etc.) is also very probable.

But this does not invalidate the fact that this short term rally seems unsustainable and a trap. Investors who were delayed by the queue at Gox and got their money in after the crash (we are speaking about MILLIONS of $ and many thousands of individuals) are not going to be in the mood for "buy and hold" like at the beginning of the bubble.

Again, the market is so illiquid that a big dump can take us all the way back to $50ish in the blink of an eye. And I don't see the enthusiasm to prevent that from happening.

In the blink of an eye and then get really scared when you find out you just sold at $50 and the bids don't nudge.

200 million dollars were spent on buying at $50-$100, that's about enough confidence I will need, and bears don't have a magic infinitely deep pocket, there are only so many bitcoins for sale.
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April 24, 2013, 08:48:18 AM
 #1105



In other news, fiat waiting to be coins is still increasing and available coins decreasing. There's 5 million in cash alone just above 120 (where we were 36 hours ago) just waiting to get in.

At this point I think 170 by week end is not unrealistic.
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April 24, 2013, 08:51:02 AM
 #1106

This is quite scary. Let's analyze the facts:

  • the interest in bitcoin is fading out after the crash, just check the google trend: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q
  • there's still a lot of money at Gox, a lot of fresh money was delayed because of their epic queue, but you can bet that from now on the flow of fresh money will be slower (just check the google trend)

I think this rally needs to be supported by REAL news that improve the fundamentals, otherwise it will be just a trap before a slow decline.

IMHO, the best news would be a new company offering unlimited amounts of BTC for cash immediately - buying your first BTC is still slow and painful, and the first one changing that fact will really boost BTC.
The google thing isn't all that surprising. People saw the price drop and lost their excitement. It'll come back eventually and many will have missed the train.

Well, people loosing their excitement is a fact; people coming back massively after a "cool down" and a growth in fundamentals (more bitcoin businesses, etc.) is also very probable.

But this does not invalidate the fact that this short term rally seems unsustainable and a trap. Investors who were delayed by the queue at Gox and got their money in after the crash (we are speaking about MILLIONS of $ and many thousands of individuals) are not going to be in the mood for "buy and hold" like at the beginning of the bubble.

Again, the market is so illiquid that a big dump can take us all the way back to $50ish in the blink of an eye. And I don't see the enthusiasm to prevent that from happening.

In the blink of an eye and then get really scared when you find out you just sold at $50 and the bids don't nudge.

200 million dollars were spent on buying at $50-$100, that's about enough confidence I will need, and bears don't have a magic infinitely deep pocket, there are only so many bitcoins for sale.

That's true. What scares me is what will happen when those who bought at $80ish to $100ish are going to cash out at $160 to $200. As I said earlier, the feeling is not any more "buy and hold" (which lead to parabolic growth), people is much more cautious now.
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April 24, 2013, 08:56:10 AM
 #1107

I'd imagine those people getting itchy to sell will simply help create resistance by selling. But eventually they will be overcome.
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April 24, 2013, 08:59:23 AM
 #1108

This is quite scary. Let's analyze the facts:

  • the interest in bitcoin is fading out after the crash, just check the google trend: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q
  • there's still a lot of money at Gox, a lot of fresh money was delayed because of their epic queue, but you can bet that from now on the flow of fresh money will be slower (just check the google trend)

I think this rally needs to be supported by REAL news that improve the fundamentals, otherwise it will be just a trap before a slow decline.

IMHO, the best news would be a new company offering unlimited amounts of BTC for cash immediately - buying your first BTC is still slow and painful, and the first one changing that fact will really boost BTC.
I am fairly convinced that the causality is the opposite of what you describe. Sure, price and number of Google searches are correlated but correlation does not imply causation. It is rising prices that drive interest, not the other way around.

Sure, what leads to exponential growth in investors base is the price rise, and there is where it starts the bubble kind of growth, but what drives the price higher in first place is real growth in BTC economy (real businesses, etc.), which increases the demand of BTC for non-speculative matters, thus boosting positive media attention and attracting tons of speculative investors....

Is like a circle...
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April 24, 2013, 09:01:33 AM
 #1109

This is quite scary. Let's analyze the facts:

  • the interest in bitcoin is fading out after the crash, just check the google trend: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q
  • there's still a lot of money at Gox, a lot of fresh money was delayed because of their epic queue, but you can bet that from now on the flow of fresh money will be slower (just check the google trend)

I think this rally needs to be supported by REAL news that improve the fundamentals, otherwise it will be just a trap before a slow decline.

IMHO, the best news would be a new company offering unlimited amounts of BTC for cash immediately - buying your first BTC is still slow and painful, and the first one changing that fact will really boost BTC.
The google thing isn't all that surprising. People saw the price drop and lost their excitement. It'll come back eventually and many will have missed the train.

Well, people loosing their excitement is a fact; people coming back massively after a "cool down" and a growth in fundamentals (more bitcoin businesses, etc.) is also very probable.

But this does not invalidate the fact that this short term rally seems unsustainable and a trap. Investors who were delayed by the queue at Gox and got their money in after the crash (we are speaking about MILLIONS of $ and many thousands of individuals) are not going to be in the mood for "buy and hold" like at the beginning of the bubble.

Again, the market is so illiquid that a big dump can take us all the way back to $50ish in the blink of an eye. And I don't see the enthusiasm to prevent that from happening.

In the blink of an eye and then get really scared when you find out you just sold at $50 and the bids don't nudge.

200 million dollars were spent on buying at $50-$100, that's about enough confidence I will need, and bears don't have a magic infinitely deep pocket, there are only so many bitcoins for sale.

That's true. What scares me is what will happen when those who bought at $80ish to $100ish are going to cash out at $160 to $200. As I said earlier, the feeling is not any more "buy and hold" (which lead to parabolic growth), people is much more cautious now.

If you are cautious, then I suspect you will not panic so easily and sell on a slight change of the wind direction, right? While smart investors usually initiate a crash, it has to be the panic sellers who execute them, no crash can happen without panic sellers, and they hardly buy back cheaper, else everybody will be a winner, so when they sold out they are out. I think even if the price moves down this time, it will be considerably less violent. The next panic sell will have to wait until after another crazy buying spree when irrational buyers put in what they can't afford to lose.

Another thing is: the crash was only so crazy thanks to the characteristics of Bitcoin itself:the whole global stock can be moved to the exchanges for sale in a matter of hours, which is unprecedented, so bears won the first move, but after they get their fiats they will have to deal with the reality of the banking system:you can only move so much in a day, so what will happen when they wait impatiently while watching the price slowly rebounds? Hmmm....
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April 24, 2013, 09:04:54 AM
 #1110

Also, the google chart really has searches falling back to end of March, early April levels which really isn't all the bad. It is vastly higher than it has been any other time than June 2011.  Cheesy
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April 24, 2013, 09:06:31 AM
 #1111

This is quite scary. Let's analyze the facts:

  • the interest in bitcoin is fading out after the crash, just check the google trend: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q
  • there's still a lot of money at Gox, a lot of fresh money was delayed because of their epic queue, but you can bet that from now on the flow of fresh money will be slower (just check the google trend)

I think this rally needs to be supported by REAL news that improve the fundamentals, otherwise it will be just a trap before a slow decline.

IMHO, the best news would be a new company offering unlimited amounts of BTC for cash immediately - buying your first BTC is still slow and painful, and the first one changing that fact will really boost BTC.

I see what you did there - sold 700 coins at 147, and getting itchy about the buyback point not coming yet.

To bail out or not to bail out; that is the question.

Hint: do not bail out, it will crash to the prev. resistance, now support at $130-$135, I am 75% we get there in 24 hours. Relax and let the swing play out.
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April 24, 2013, 09:08:46 AM
 #1112

That's true. What scares me is what will happen when those who bought at $80ish to $100ish are going to cash out at $160 to $200. As I said earlier, the feeling is not any more "buy and hold" (which lead to parabolic growth), people is much more cautious now.

The fact that people are more cautious now actually prevents a big crash from happening. Overconfidence leads to big crashes.
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April 24, 2013, 09:09:35 AM
 #1113

This is quite scary. Let's analyze the facts:

  • the interest in bitcoin is fading out after the crash, just check the google trend: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q
  • there's still a lot of money at Gox, a lot of fresh money was delayed because of their epic queue, but you can bet that from now on the flow of fresh money will be slower (just check the google trend)

I think this rally needs to be supported by REAL news that improve the fundamentals, otherwise it will be just a trap before a slow decline.

IMHO, the best news would be a new company offering unlimited amounts of BTC for cash immediately - buying your first BTC is still slow and painful, and the first one changing that fact will really boost BTC.
The google thing isn't all that surprising. People saw the price drop and lost their excitement. It'll come back eventually and many will have missed the train.

Well, people loosing their excitement is a fact; people coming back massively after a "cool down" and a growth in fundamentals (more bitcoin businesses, etc.) is also very probable.

But this does not invalidate the fact that this short term rally seems unsustainable and a trap. Investors who were delayed by the queue at Gox and got their money in after the crash (we are speaking about MILLIONS of $ and many thousands of individuals) are not going to be in the mood for "buy and hold" like at the beginning of the bubble.

Again, the market is so illiquid that a big dump can take us all the way back to $50ish in the blink of an eye. And I don't see the enthusiasm to prevent that from happening.

In the blink of an eye and then get really scared when you find out you just sold at $50 and the bids don't nudge.

200 million dollars were spent on buying at $50-$100, that's about enough confidence I will need, and bears don't have a magic infinitely deep pocket, there are only so many bitcoins for sale.

That's true. What scares me is what will happen when those who bought at $80ish to $100ish are going to cash out at $160 to $200. As I said earlier, the feeling is not any more "buy and hold" (which lead to parabolic growth), people is much more cautious now.

If you are cautious, then I suspect you will not panic so easily and sell on a slight change of the wind direction, right? While smart investors usually initiate a crash, it has to be the panic sellers who execute them, no crash can happen without panic sellers, and they hardly buy back cheaper, else everybody will be a winner, so when they sold out they are out. I think even if the price moves down this time, it will be considerably less violent. The next panic sell will have to wait until after another crazy buying spree when irrational buyers put in what they can't afford to lose.

Another thing is: the crash was only so crazy thanks to the characteristics of Bitcoin itself:the whole global stock can be moved to the exchanges for sale in a matter of hours, which is unprecedented, so bears won the first move, but after they get their fiats they will have to deal with the reality of the banking system:you can only move so much in a day, so what will happen when they wait impatiently while watching the price slowly rebounds? Hmmm....

That's true. The system is fucked up also because it is so difficult to "cash out" a significant amount of money. Have you ever tried to cash out something above $500k from Gox? You can bet it is a fucking pain in the ass. Big commissions, painfully slow verification process (notarization, apostille, huge queue, etc.) and HUGE DELAY in processing withdrawals. When you made $500k from your $20k investment you are not used to move that amount of money, thus you get nervous when you see your money is stuck for 20/25 days at a Japanese company run by a guy in his 20s, constantly hit by DDoS and apparently unable to manage their own growth.

For serious money (i mean serious money) to enter BTC we need much more reliable infrastructure.
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April 24, 2013, 09:11:46 AM
 #1114

This is quite scary. Let's analyze the facts:

  • the interest in bitcoin is fading out after the crash, just check the google trend: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q
  • there's still a lot of money at Gox, a lot of fresh money was delayed because of their epic queue, but you can bet that from now on the flow of fresh money will be slower (just check the google trend)

I think this rally needs to be supported by REAL news that improve the fundamentals, otherwise it will be just a trap before a slow decline.

IMHO, the best news would be a new company offering unlimited amounts of BTC for cash immediately - buying your first BTC is still slow and painful, and the first one changing that fact will really boost BTC.
The google thing isn't all that surprising. People saw the price drop and lost their excitement. It'll come back eventually and many will have missed the train.

Well, people loosing their excitement is a fact; people coming back massively after a "cool down" and a growth in fundamentals (more bitcoin businesses, etc.) is also very probable.

But this does not invalidate the fact that this short term rally seems unsustainable and a trap. Investors who were delayed by the queue at Gox and got their money in after the crash (we are speaking about MILLIONS of $ and many thousands of individuals) are not going to be in the mood for "buy and hold" like at the beginning of the bubble.

Again, the market is so illiquid that a big dump can take us all the way back to $50ish in the blink of an eye. And I don't see the enthusiasm to prevent that from happening.

In the blink of an eye and then get really scared when you find out you just sold at $50 and the bids don't nudge.

200 million dollars were spent on buying at $50-$100, that's about enough confidence I will need, and bears don't have a magic infinitely deep pocket, there are only so many bitcoins for sale.

That's true. What scares me is what will happen when those who bought at $80ish to $100ish are going to cash out at $160 to $200. As I said earlier, the feeling is not any more "buy and hold" (which lead to parabolic growth), people is much more cautious now.

If you are cautious, then I suspect you will not panic so easily and sell on a slight change of the wind direction, right? While smart investors usually initiate a crash, it has to be the panic sellers who execute them, no crash can happen without panic sellers, and they hardly buy back cheaper, else everybody will be a winner, so when they sold out they are out. I think even if the price moves down this time, it will be considerably less violent. The next panic sell will have to wait until after another crazy buying spree when irrational buyers put in what they can't afford to lose.

Another thing is: the crash was only so crazy thanks to the characteristics of Bitcoin itself:the whole global stock can be moved to the exchanges for sale in a matter of hours, which is unprecedented, so bears won the first move, but after they get their fiats they will have to deal with the reality of the banking system:you can only move so much in a day, so what will happen when they wait impatiently while watching the price slowly rebounds? Hmmm....

That's true. The system is fucked up also because it is so difficult to "cash out" a significant amount of money. Have you ever tried to cash out something above $500k from Gox? You can bet it is a fucking pain in the ass. Big commissions, painfully slow verification process (notarization, apostille, huge queue, etc.) and HUGE DELAY in processing withdrawals. When you made $500k from your $20k investment you are not used to move that amount of money, thus you get nervous when you see your money is stuck for 20/25 days at a Japanese company run by a guy in his 20s, constantly hit by DDoS and apparently unable to manage their own growth.

For serious money (i mean serious money) to enter BTC we need much more reliable infrastructure.

It's not just the problem of Gox, every bank wants to restrict you when it comes to withdrawal of large amount of money, they usually only keep the minimum amount of reserve required so it will always be a PITA.
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April 24, 2013, 09:15:34 AM
 #1115

That's true. The system is fucked up also because it is so difficult to "cash out" a significant amount of money. Have you ever tried to cash out something above $500k from Gox? You can bet it is a fucking pain in the ass. Big commissions, painfully slow verification process (notarization, apostille, huge queue, etc.) and HUGE DELAY in processing withdrawals. When you made $500k from your $20k investment you are not used to move that amount of money, thus you get nervous when you see your money is stuck for 20/25 days at a Japanese company run by a guy in his 20s, constantly hit by DDoS and apparently unable to manage their own growth.

For serious money (i mean serious money) to enter BTC we need much more reliable infrastructure.

It's not just the problem of Gox, every bank wants to restrict you when it comes to withdrawal of money, they usually only keep the minimum amount of reserve required so it will always be a PITA.

Well, that's true if you want CASH from your bank - but when you are moving "electronic" money from one account/bank to another you don't need more than 2/3 business days, many times with 1 day is enough, and its very unlikely your money will never go through. With Gox you may have to wait for almost a month with your withdrawal on "processing", and the fear the money will never come out because of hack, shut down by law enforcement, scam, whatever, is high.
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April 24, 2013, 09:16:29 AM
 #1116

Also, the google chart really has searches falling back to end of March, early April levels which really isn't all the bad. It is vastly higher than it has been any other time than June 2011.  Cheesy

That is today. If the downtrend in interest continues, in 2 weeks we will be at December 2012 interest levels.
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April 24, 2013, 09:17:55 AM
 #1117

That's true. The system is fucked up also because it is so difficult to "cash out" a significant amount of money. Have you ever tried to cash out something above $500k from Gox? You can bet it is a fucking pain in the ass. Big commissions, painfully slow verification process (notarization, apostille, huge queue, etc.) and HUGE DELAY in processing withdrawals. When you made $500k from your $20k investment you are not used to move that amount of money, thus you get nervous when you see your money is stuck for 20/25 days at a Japanese company run by a guy in his 20s, constantly hit by DDoS and apparently unable to manage their own growth.

For serious money (i mean serious money) to enter BTC we need much more reliable infrastructure.

It's not just the problem of Gox, every bank wants to restrict you when it comes to withdrawal of money, they usually only keep the minimum amount of reserve required so it will always be a PITA.

Well, that's true if you want CASH from your bank - but when you are moving "electronic" money from one account/bank to another you don't need more than 2/3 business days, many times with 1 day is enough, and its very unlikely your money will never go through. With Gox you may have to wait for almost a month with your withdrawal on "processing", and the fear the money will never come out because of hack, shut down by law enforcement, scam, whatever, is high.

For small account holders like me, definitely that's the case. But I am not sure if they would still be so generous if I were to process tens of millions of dollars worth of withdrawals per month. But yes, it's quite obvious Gox can't keep up with it as well.
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April 24, 2013, 09:20:39 AM
 #1118

Only 7800btc to get through 150. A lot of that wall disappeared in the last 5 hours.
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April 24, 2013, 09:21:23 AM
 #1119

Only 7800btc to get through 150. A lot of that wall disappeared in the last 5 hours.

Some of them actually got sold into the bid side I believe.
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April 24, 2013, 09:22:21 AM
 #1120

Only 7800btc to get through 150. A lot of that wall disappeared in the last 5 hours.

Some of them actually got sold into the bid side I believe.
Yes I believe so also, it was a big help in ripping that wall down hehe.

EDIT: Only 5400btc left to 150 now, haha.  Grin

EDIT 2: 4800btc left to 150. Dropping fast!
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