Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Looking at the volume, it appears to be one of the tremors before the big quake. The recovery to $445 is on no volume at all. I pulled one of my re-buy orders until I find out what the hell is going on. How can there be that many limit buy orders with no market-order buying?

There appears to be much expectation for a major liquidity event in the downward direction. There is a minute chance that this is a head-fake by whales, but I seriously doubt it.
If you can't spot the sucker at the poker table, then you are the sucker. I'm folding my hand to conserve chips.

What's that mean, exactly? 

I thought that you were all in Fiat at $456 or $458 or something like that. 

So at this point, you could buy some BTC back at a profit, no? and then if we dip lower, buy some more... unless you are saying that you are just going to sit out this roller coaster (a kind of train) in fiat?   

Personally, I would rather sit it out in BTC, but each of us have our own levels of diversification or hedge.

A 6$ profit after a $600 drop from the ATH? Yeah, I'll get right on that.


That's just it. Since most of my holdings are in cold storage, I'm using my trading stash as a hedge right now. I've seen bitcoin prices go stupid high and stupid low. They are low now, but they aren't stupid low, considering China AND Gox.  I'm a Bitcoin true believer, but I think that works against me as a day trader. I'm trying to zero out my bias, but I may be overdoing it. I don't know what to do. I suspect that these buy walls are not there out of demand for cheap coins, but out of fear of a further drop. There is almost nothing on the other side of $400.

Why would anyone put in orders below $400, when the probability of such seems so low and also, seems that they have to get through the supra $400 walls first?   

And, the truth of the matter, seems to be a broken record repeated theme that NONE of us really knows which way it is gonna go.  We seemed to have gotten another $10 squeeze downward this morning, which caused me to buy a little more. I would be very surprised to see anything much below $420 - for more than a flash crash... ... but, yep, anything remains within the realm of possibilities.... including the suggestion that something fishy is up.. especially, if we have a mini dump .. and suspecting something else will follow from that.

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[fonzie]

[fonzie]

Was fonzie du bist ein Deutscher?

I just admire their art of brewing beer and playing football.

Edit:


我只是很佩服釀造啤酒和踢足球的他們的藝術。(sell sell sell)

[lemonte]

[adamstgBit]

[EuroTrash]

OK, the "news" moved the market down, but nobody is really moving it back up.

[lemonte]

OK, the "news" moved the market down, but nobody is really moving it back up.

People are still questioning the validity of it. In these types of events I tend to use Twitter to monitor sentiment, I know when capitulation is coming as the amount of questions and articles around the subject slow down, which in turn makes people forget, or at least puts them at ease.

If you check Twitter at the moment there's a regular surge of "Is this real?" Was a few hours back when it first posted and is now doing the rounds again, likely because of difference in time zones.

We'll see what the Chinese have to say when they wake up, I am sure the merchant bank will get asked the same questions and someone will post something else.

[billyjoeallen]

Looking at the volume, it appears to be one of the tremors before the big quake. The recovery to $445 is on no volume at all. I pulled one of my re-buy orders until I find out what the hell is going on. How can there be that many limit buy orders with no market-order buying?

There appears to be much expectation for a major liquidity event in the downward direction. There is a minute chance that this is a head-fake by whales, but I seriously doubt it.
If you can't spot the sucker at the poker table, then you are the sucker. I'm folding my hand to conserve chips.

What's that mean, exactly? 

I thought that you were all in Fiat at $456 or $458 or something like that. 

So at this point, you could buy some BTC back at a profit, no? and then if we dip lower, buy some more... unless you are saying that you are just going to sit out this roller coaster (a kind of train) in fiat?   

Personally, I would rather sit it out in BTC, but each of us have our own levels of diversification or hedge.

A 6$ profit after a $600 drop from the ATH? Yeah, I'll get right on that.


That's just it. Since most of my holdings are in cold storage, I'm using my trading stash as a hedge right now. I've seen bitcoin prices go stupid high and stupid low. They are low now, but they aren't stupid low, considering China AND Gox.  I'm a Bitcoin true believer, but I think that works against me as a day trader. I'm trying to zero out my bias, but I may be overdoing it. I don't know what to do. I suspect that these buy walls are not there out of demand for cheap coins, but out of fear of a further drop. There is almost nothing on the other side of $400.

dont look at the wall, there's MASSIVE support under 400 its just not shown,

i have no bids under 400

but i will buy under 400 if we go there.

I have orders in for 20,000 bitcoins if it drops below 10 cents. Hey, it's happened before.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

Looking at the volume, it appears to be one of the tremors before the big quake. The recovery to $445 is on no volume at all. I pulled one of my re-buy orders until I find out what the hell is going on. How can there be that many limit buy orders with no market-order buying?

There appears to be much expectation for a major liquidity event in the downward direction. There is a minute chance that this is a head-fake by whales, but I seriously doubt it.
If you can't spot the sucker at the poker table, then you are the sucker. I'm folding my hand to conserve chips.

What's that mean, exactly?  

I thought that you were all in Fiat at $456 or $458 or something like that.  

So at this point, you could buy some BTC back at a profit, no? and then if we dip lower, buy some more... unless you are saying that you are just going to sit out this roller coaster (a kind of train) in fiat?  

Personally, I would rather sit it out in BTC, but each of us have our own levels of diversification or hedge.

A 6$ profit after a $600 drop from the ATH? Yeah, I'll get right on that.


That's just it. Since most of my holdings are in cold storage, I'm using my trading stash as a hedge right now. I've seen bitcoin prices go stupid high and stupid low. They are low now, but they aren't stupid low, considering China AND Gox.  I'm a Bitcoin true believer, but I think that works against me as a day trader. I'm trying to zero out my bias, but I may be overdoing it. I don't know what to do. I suspect that these buy walls are not there out of demand for cheap coins, but out of fear of a further drop. There is almost nothing on the other side of $400.

Why would anyone put in orders below $400, when the probability of such seems so low and also, seems that they have to get through the supra $400 walls first?    

And, the truth of the matter, seems to be a broken record repeated theme that NONE of us really knows which way it is gonna go.  We seemed to have gotten another $10 squeeze downward this morning, which caused me to buy a little more. I would be very surprised to see anything much below $420 - for more than a flash crash... ... but, yep, anything remains within the realm of possibilities.... including the suggestion that something fishy is up.. especially, if we have a mini dump .. and suspecting something else will follow from that.

I think the probability is 40% that we will go lower. rpietila thinks the probability is 30% and TERA thinks it is over 50% (eventually).  There is a remote chance that an early adopter could dump and trigger a panic. I can't make a meaningful difference @ $400, but I can lower down. Consider me Black Swan insurance.

[billyjoeallen]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costs

FWIW, I think bitcoin is really under-priced right now, but I also know that Keynes was right when he said that markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. I need to position myself to take advantage of that irrationality should it continue rather than be at it's mercy.

[smiley123]

On the topic of mining, I can envision that some day in the future, hopefully before the time when/if big miners get discouraged, that I will start seeing "Bitcoin Inside" logos on computer boxes when I go to my local computer store.  The only thing the customer buying the computer needs to know is that the "Bitcoin Inside" logo means that they are supporting the network.

I know I'm dreaming, but I can see a time when every home computer will eventually have some kind of low power mining device (maybe with an energy and speed rating).  And, I know I'm dating myself here, but I am reminded of the early days when computers started selling with modems preinstalled.  This mining device could just mine completely transparent and separate form any OS on the system, and even be configured to always stay on.  Maybe this device could charge up some hardware wallet or bitcoin stick that comes with the computer from the processed transactions and rewards if any.  Large companies could configure all the proceeds from mining done by the computers in their employees cubicles to go into the company wallet.

In short, even if large miners become so disincentivised that they stop mining altogether, it doesn't mean that there are no other scenarios that will play out to keep the current bitcoin network alive for many years.  And hopefully this would be a gradual and less painless process than we are imagining now.

[podyx]

Fuck... seriously considering shorting for the worst case scenario

[fonzie]

I can smell it

[fonzie]

Fuck... seriously considering shorting for the worst case scenario

You´re welcome  

You don´t have to sell BTC to short.

Of course i recommend sodl/shotr as always.

[podyx]

lol

Still would be hodling my cold storage though, which is about 70%

[CoinThinker]

Relax guys, price will obviously go higher. Look at bitstamp:

- they are buy orders in value of 14.000 BTC in total from 440 down to 398 USD
- on the other hand they are sell orders in value of 4.698 BTC in total up to 484 USD (from 440 USD).

So basically, while people would buy 14.000 BTC by the time BTC would go down to 400, there is ONLY 4.698 BTC on the selling side up to 484 USD.

I think this says all: people are not willing to sell their bitcoins at this price, which is the correct attitude. Excepting some idiots who are selling (I think everybody's an idiot selling now), people are just holding. Imagine, 4.698 BTC for sale from the almost 13.000.000 on the market... that says a lot about it (and also about how stupid people selling at this price are).

I am sure that by the end of 2014 BTC will be at least 2-3.000 USD.

[podyx]

Relax guys, price will obviously go higher. Look at bitstamp:

- they are buy orders in value of 14.000 BTC in total from 440 down to 398 USD
- on the other hand they are sell orders in value of 4.698 BTC in total up to 484 USD (from 440 USD).

So basically, while people would buy 14.000 BTC by the time BTC would go down to 400, there is ONLY 4.698 BTC on the selling side up to 484 USD.

I think this says all: people are not willing to sell their bitcoins at this price, which is the correct attitude. Excepting some idiots who are selling (I think everybody's an idiot selling now), people are just holding. Imagine, 4.698 BTC for sale from the almost 13.000.000 on the market... that says a lot about it (and also about how stupid people selling at this price are).

I am sure that by the end of 2014 BTC will be at least 2-3.000 USD.

Yea i'm just getting itchy
Bitcoin better go up pretty soon though.

[derpinheimer]

Relax guys, price will obviously go higher. Look at bitstamp:

- they are buy orders in value of 14.000 BTC in total from 440 down to 398 USD
- on the other hand they are sell orders in value of 4.698 BTC in total up to 484 USD (from 440 USD).

So basically, while people would buy 14.000 BTC by the time BTC would go down to 400, there is ONLY 4.698 BTC on the selling side up to 484 USD.

I think this says all: people are not willing to sell their bitcoins at this price, which is the correct attitude. Excepting some idiots who are selling (I think everybody's an idiot selling now), people are just holding. Imagine, 4.698 BTC for sale from the almost 13.000.000 on the market... that says a lot about it (and also about how stupid people selling at this price are).

I am sure that by the end of 2014 BTC will be at least 2-3.000 USD.

The orderbooks cant be taken too seriously. You'll see some really big rises come from times of an awful looking orderbook and of course vice versa.
\

[MinermanNC]

On the topic of mining, I can envision that some day in the future, hopefully before the time when/if big miners get discouraged, that I will start seeing "Bitcoin Inside" logos on computer boxes when I go to my local computer store.  The only thing the customer buying the computer needs to know is that the "Bitcoin Inside" logo means that they are supporting the network.

I know I'm dreaming, but I can see a time when every home computer will eventually have some kind of low power mining device (maybe with an energy and speed rating).  And, I know I'm dating myself here, but I am reminded of the early days when computers started selling with modems preinstalled.  This mining device could just mine completely transparent and separate form any OS on the system, and even be configured to always stay on.  Maybe this device could charge up some hardware wallet or bitcoin stick that comes with the computer from the processed transactions and rewards if any.  Large companies could configure all the proceeds from mining done by the computers in their employees cubicles to go into the company wallet.

In short, even if large miners become so disincentivised that they stop mining altogether, it doesn't mean that there are no other scenarios that will play out to keep the current bitcoin network alive for many years.  And hopefully this would be a gradual and less painless process than we are imagining now.

Interesting thought lol, as you know the mining business.. especially for BTC and the network of course is in a true arms race now,. The only ones I see really profiting continually will be those who are selling hashing shares with a ton of fee's or the lucky few who buy enough mining power to make a quick buck before difficulty renders their machines useless. I don't see any individuals making a true return in the long haul,,,, kinda like a money pit. BUT the ONLY thing that will keep people involved in the mining for BTC is if the actual value rockets as like when over 900 for weeks earlier,, then even the small miner whether cloud hashing or rig hashing, can see a profit,,, then if it went to 14,000 a coin then everyone's mining and happy :0