Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

Huobi is dying, if I read this right.
http://bitcoinblog.de/2014/04/12/its-not-a-survivors-game-its-a-losers-game/

Thanks for the link!

It seems inevitable that the Chinese exchanges will shrink considerably after April/18. (Just compare BTC-China before and after the December decree.)  Who knows whether their "overseas" reincarnations will succeed.

I am still puzzled by the price movements since Mar/26.

It seems that the only permanent effect of all the developments so far was the drop by ~550 CNY on Mar/27, after the Caixin leak.  That drop makes sense.

But when the report was confirmed on Apr/03 by BTC38 and FXBTC, and re-confirmed by Huobi on Apr/10,  there were additional large but temporary price drops.  These I do not understand:

  * if these drops were  dumping by traders who had doubted the Caixin report, why would the price recover in the next couple of days?

  * if all the traders had believed the Caixin report when it came out, why would them dump when it was confirmed?

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[jonoiv]

I have been a miner since Nov 2011, and I work in a very geek orientated environment, there are over 100 working in my team.  They are all tech geeks and out of these people only maybe 3 or 4 have mined bitcoin.

I dont believe you about having 100 miners on your team

Luckily he did not claim so

Maybe I have to improve my reading skills... ...   ... I am still NOT planning to change my post b/c part of my point(s) remains that he is full of it, for a variety of other reasons... including the fact that even he is claiming to be a bitter miner since 2011... may be true, but seems to be like he got screwed somehow or made some serious mistakes and is NOT in touch with whatever caused him to get involved in the mining of BTC.  Maybe he overextended himself or saw that traders were doing better than miners b/c if a miner had saved some of his coins since 2011, he could have a pretty decent little stash... but if he over invested in mining equipment, then maybe he does NOT have any coins... .   He may want to explain the cause(s) for his bitterness that has caused him to not only be bearish but to make a variety of outlandish claims regarding the direction of bitcoin... to describe bitcoin in mostly negative terms..

"he overextended himself"  as a miner that's not really possible,  The only time electricity was more expensive than income was July / August 2013, when LTC was $2.  We are approaching that level again BTW for scrypt coins and soon first gen asics will reach that level.   Avalon ascis (80GH) are there now, power hungry 90nm design (the electric costs more than the BTC received.)

Again you need to read. what I wrote,  you have selective vision.  I wrote..  "Bitcoin is great invention, it has great support ".

I said I don't see where the next big investment will come from straight away.  I said it will take time.  That's why I and many others remain bearish (for now).

I wrote a large post about my bitcoin history, but deleted it, because actually I don't care if you believe it or not.  I could provide proof, but it won't change anything,  your response will still be the same.  (i'm a bitter bear, etc. etc. ) but as I was the person that made the DPZ coin I don't feel like I have to justify my involvement in the crypto community.

Edit: spelling
 

NO you do NOT have to prove yourself... I agree. 

I have seen quite a few posts from you that have seemed to be angled towards spinning some jaded perspectives that are exaggerating facts in one direction or another... so for the time being, I will hold any further negative conclusions in reserve.. .. and see how it plays out... 

I am NOT attempting to read matters selectively, but i likely have NOT read all of your posts..  but that does NOT make my reading selective or purposefully selective in an conscious attempt to look at the world from a tinted glasses perspective.

In essence, I am NOT bothered by perspectives that are negative towards bitcoin, but i am usually bothered by inaccurate depictions when it seems to me that the poster knows better... if you do NOT know better, then you get more leeway, in my thinking.... ..   

I don't know better, neither do you, I can't say for certain if it's going up or down.  I'm simply saying I will hold fiat for now. 

[Walsoraj]

Huobi is dying, if I read this right.
http://bitcoinblog.de/2014/04/12/its-not-a-survivors-game-its-a-losers-game/

Thanks for the link!

It seems inevitable that the Chinese exchanges will shrink considerably after April/18. (Just compare BTC-China before and after the December decree.)  Who knows whether their "overseas" reincarnations will succeed.

I am still puzzled by the price movements since Mar/26.

It seems that the only permanent effect of all the developments so far was the drop by ~550 CNY on Mar/27, after the Caixin leak.  That drop makes sense.

But when the report was confirmed on Apr/03 by BTC38 and FXBTC, and re-confirmed by Huobi on Apr/10,  there were additional large but temporary price drops.  These I do not understand:

  * if these drops were  dumping by traders who had doubted the Caixin report, why would the price recover in the next couple of days?

  * if all the traders had believed the Caixin report when it came out, why would them dump when it was confirmed?

I suspect some of the overseas traders who have been manipulating the price with high frequency bots opted to withdraw bitcoins and cash-out elsewhere. The alternative would be to withdraw yuan to a chinese bank and attempt to wire to a foreign bank. Very difficult if not impossible to do legally if you are not a chinese citizen.

[SheHadMANHands]

I am all-in Bitcoin ..   more bullish longterm than pre - bubble (~$120s).  

 

[TERA]

I am all-in Bitcoin ..   more bullish longterm than pre - bubble (~$120s).  

 

Never go all in. On anything. Ever.

[SheHadMANHands]

I am all-in Bitcoin ..   more bullish longterm than pre - bubble (~$120s).  

 

Never go all in. On anything. Ever.

Too late.  Young w/ good cash flow... s'all good.

In a good position to roll the +EV dice.

[SheHadMANHands]

Been a while since we've seen a double bottom.

Ex:

[pjviitas]

Been a while since we've seen a double bottom.

Ex:

Hmmmm....very very interesting

[SheHadMANHands]

I am sure we'll see some soon on the charts, but it's always nice to see an example or illustration..

EDIT: And maybe get a random, married bitcointalk lurker in trouble w/ wife.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I have been a miner since Nov 2011, and I work in a very geek orientated environment, there are over 100 working in my team.  They are all tech geeks and out of these people only maybe 3 or 4 have mined bitcoin.

I dont believe you about having 100 miners on your team

Luckily he did not claim so

Maybe I have to improve my reading skills... ...   ... I am still NOT planning to change my post b/c part of my point(s) remains that he is full of it, for a variety of other reasons... including the fact that even he is claiming to be a bitter miner since 2011... may be true, but seems to be like he got screwed somehow or made some serious mistakes and is NOT in touch with whatever caused him to get involved in the mining of BTC.  Maybe he overextended himself or saw that traders were doing better than miners b/c if a miner had saved some of his coins since 2011, he could have a pretty decent little stash... but if he over invested in mining equipment, then maybe he does NOT have any coins... .   He may want to explain the cause(s) for his bitterness that has caused him to not only be bearish but to make a variety of outlandish claims regarding the direction of bitcoin... to describe bitcoin in mostly negative terms..

"he overextended himself"  as a miner that's not really possible,  The only time electricity was more expensive than income was July / August 2013, when LTC was $2.  We are approaching that level again BTW for scrypt coins and soon first gen asics will reach that level.   Avalon ascis (80GH) are there now, power hungry 90nm design (the electric costs more than the BTC received.)

Again you need to read. what I wrote,  you have selective vision.  I wrote..  "Bitcoin is great invention, it has great support ".

I said I don't see where the next big investment will come from straight away.  I said it will take time.  That's why I and many others remain bearish (for now).

I wrote a large post about my bitcoin history, but deleted it, because actually I don't care if you believe it or not.  I could provide proof, but it won't change anything,  your response will still be the same.  (i'm a bitter bear, etc. etc. ) but as I was the person that made the DPZ coin I don't feel like I have to justify my involvement in the crypto community.

Edit: spelling
 

NO you do NOT have to prove yourself... I agree. 

I have seen quite a few posts from you that have seemed to be angled towards spinning some jaded perspectives that are exaggerating facts in one direction or another... so for the time being, I will hold any further negative conclusions in reserve.. .. and see how it plays out... 

I am NOT attempting to read matters selectively, but i likely have NOT read all of your posts..  but that does NOT make my reading selective or purposefully selective in an conscious attempt to look at the world from a tinted glasses perspective.

In essence, I am NOT bothered by perspectives that are negative towards bitcoin, but i am usually bothered by inaccurate depictions when it seems to me that the poster knows better... if you do NOT know better, then you get more leeway, in my thinking.... ..   

I don't know better, neither do you, I can't say for certain if it's going up or down.  I'm simply saying I will hold fiat for now. 

You should KNOW that we are NOT talking about whether posters are merely making good faith and genuine predictions, and if each of us were merely making good faith and genuine predictions, then that is fine. 

But if either of us is purposefully providing misleading information as if it were true, then that is another story.  I have NOT been asserting that my predictions are any better than yours; however, I have been questioning whether you have been purposefully providing misleading information.. and so I pulled back to a small degree from my earlier assertions  b/c I had overstated the level to which I thought you were providing contradictory information about your background... however, that does NOT remove my concerns, it only shows that I had put too much weight on a piece of information about your background that I misunderstood. 

So, in that regard, I agreed to move forward rather than dwelling on that aspect which is a bit of a side-tangent.. and information out of my ability to really know.  You are in the possession of information about your background, NOT me.

[JayJuanGee]

Been a while since we've seen a double bottom.

Ex:

Hmmmm....very very interesting

That is a single bottom, I think.   

[SheHadMANHands]

In chart terms, sir, I see a double bottom.

Of course, this is in a TA context.

I think it is a bullish sign.

[jonoiv]

Huobi is dying, if I read this right.
http://bitcoinblog.de/2014/04/12/its-not-a-survivors-game-its-a-losers-game/

Thanks for the link!

It seems inevitable that the Chinese exchanges will shrink considerably after April/18. (Just compare BTC-China before and after the December decree.)  Who knows whether their "overseas" reincarnations will succeed.

I am still puzzled by the price movements since Mar/26.

It seems that the only permanent effect of all the developments so far was the drop by ~550 CNY on Mar/27, after the Caixin leak.  That drop makes sense.

But when the report was confirmed on Apr/03 by BTC38 and FXBTC, and re-confirmed by Huobi on Apr/10,  there were additional large but temporary price drops.  These I do not understand:

  * if these drops were  dumping by traders who had doubted the Caixin report, why would the price recover in the next couple of days?

  * if all the traders had believed the Caixin report when it came out, why would them dump when it was confirmed?

I was reading the stuff on page 3.  all of a sudden it's a 404!  

http://bitcoinblog.de/2014/04/12/its-not-a-survivors-game-its-a-losers-game/3/

EDIT:  they pulled the whole article! hmm

EDIT 2:  still there in German http://bitcoinblog.de/2014/04/12/es-ist-kein-spiel-der-uberlebenden-sondern-der-verlierer/

[chessnut]

Hmmm...
If all exchanges must halt deposits before/on 14th.... today (next 24hrs) is possibly the riskiest day to be trading.
wait and see I guess...

[jonoiv]

In chart terms, sir, I see a double bottom.

Of course, this is in a TA context.

I think it is a bullish sign.

To be honest I don't see a double bottom on the charts either    (unless you are talking about the 1 min charts)

to be a double bottom, I would think we need a sustained bounce off 340 again.  Then you will see a strong uptrend. 

[wachtwoord]

In chart terms, sir, I see a double bottom.

Of course, this is in a TA context.

I think it is a bullish sign.

To be honest I don't see a double bottom on the charts either    (unless you are talking about the 1 min charts)

to be a double bottom, I would think we need a sustained bounce off 340 again.  Then you will see a strong uptrend. 

I see a triple bottom on the daily 18 dec/ 25 feb / 11 apr

[JayJuanGee]

In chart terms, sir, I see a double bottom.

Of course, this is in a TA context.

I think it is a bullish sign.

To be honest I don't see a double bottom on the charts either    (unless you are talking about the 1 min charts)

to be a double bottom, I would think we need a sustained bounce off 340 again.  Then you will see a strong uptrend. 

I see a triple bottom on the daily 18 dec/ 25 feb / 11 apr

I need a bathing suit picture, otherwise, i do not believe it.

[wachtwoord]

In chart terms, sir, I see a double bottom.

Of course, this is in a TA context.

I think it is a bullish sign.

To be honest I don't see a double bottom on the charts either    (unless you are talking about the 1 min charts)

to be a double bottom, I would think we need a sustained bounce off 340 again.  Then you will see a strong uptrend. 

I see a triple bottom on the daily 18 dec/ 25 feb / 11 apr

I need a bathing suit picture, otherwise, i do not believe it.

Not that I believe in any TA vodoo

[jonoiv]

In chart terms, sir, I see a double bottom.

Of course, this is in a TA context.

I think it is a bullish sign.

To be honest I don't see a double bottom on the charts either   (unless you are talking about the 1 min charts)

to be a double bottom, I would think we need a sustained bounce off 340 again.  Then you will see a strong uptrend.  

I see a triple bottom on the daily 18 dec/ 25 feb / 11 apr

Arr i'm with you now.  the giant wedge pattern.  well the next few days we should know.  

Personally this is what im looking at.  If we continue to go sideways,  or again start to track the trend line and slowly decline.  



Edit:  changed picture