Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TheKoziTwo]

[source]

[1713504301]

1713504301

[1713504301]

1713504301

[bitcodo]

Don't worry  bulls, Smoothie will post about conference, and choo choo we go     

[Richy_T]

or bank fees. money goes out -> transfer fee, gets exchanged -> exchange fee, goes back in -> transfer fee, you buy BTC -> Gox fee. I can see it reaching 2.5%.

This is a shame. One of the attractive things about Bitcoin to me was the possibility of low cost currency conversions. If Gox is just running it through a bank and passing on the charges, that, quite frankly, sucks.

[Miz4r]

Volume isn't just lower compared to post-crash, but also before that:

That's probably because of the recent incidents with regulations. Many people are waiting until that is cleared up before they can confidently trade again on Gox. Until then the volume will stay extremely low, with short increases in volume during price changes.

[Quantum_Negatum]

Volume isn't just lower compared to post-crash, but also before that:

That's probably because of the recent incidents with regulations. Many people are waiting until that is cleared up before they can confidently trade again on Gox. Until then the volume will stay extremely low, with short increases in volume during price changes.

Wishful thinking, bull.

A more likely scenario is that speculators consider the price too high (potential reward greatly outweighed by risk at the moment), stubborn miners in a more competitive environment are holding positions, stubborn sellers are not willing to go lower than their entry point and there is a much reduced flow of money into Gox for numerous reasons, including potential new investors sitting on the sidelines viewing a stagnant price and considering weaker returns. Doubtful that the regulations are primarily responsible for widespread panic or reluctance to buy in. It is true that the regulations make it more difficult to get money into Gox, but generally only for the criminal-minded. If you have nothing to hide, it is still easy to transfer money, for example via wire.

I would entertain the possibility that recent regulation enforcement has scared away a small minority of criminals who were using bitcoin for money laundering. If this minority was responsible for most of the previous volume and are now absent, then I'd bet on a long, drawn-out downturn.

[Miz4r]

Volume isn't just lower compared to post-crash, but also before that:

That's probably because of the recent incidents with regulations. Many people are waiting until that is cleared up before they can confidently trade again on Gox. Until then the volume will stay extremely low, with short increases in volume during price changes.

Wishful thinking, bull.

A more likely scenario is that speculators consider the price too high (potential reward greatly outweighed by risk at the moment), stubborn miners in a more competitive environment are holding positions, stubborn sellers are not willing to go lower than their entry point and there is a much reduced flow of money into Gox. Unlikely that the regulations are primarily responsible for widespread panic or reluctance to buy in. It is true that the regulations make it more difficult to get money into Gox, but generally only for the criminal-minded. If you have nothing to hide, it is still easy to get money into gox, for example via wire.

I would entertain the possibility that recent regulations have scared away a small minority of criminals who were using bitcoin for money laundering. If this minority was responsible for most of the previous volume and are now absent, then I'd bet on a long, drawn-out downturn.

Look in the mirror, who is wishful thinking now? I'm not really bullish nor bearish on the short term, it depends on how this whole regulation issue gets resolved. If it gets resolved in a good way that fully legitimizes the bitcoin exchange then yes I'm very bullish. I do feel that we're going to move up a little after the current period of consolidation, but it will be a relatively small and hesitant move as long as there's no resolution to these issues, and it could just as easily reverse again the week after. And it's not just that you have to get verified now to trade or that there are no fast, cheap and easy ways to move money in and out like with Dwolla. That's annoying ofcourse, but the main thing is that Gox apparently does not have its act together and trust in the exchange is dwindling. If you can't see that this all would cause a significant loss in volume then you're just blind.

[ChartBuddy]

[Quantum_Negatum]

Look in the mirror, who is wishful thinking now? I'm not really bullish nor bearish on the short term, it depends on how this whole regulation issue gets resolved. If it gets resolved in a good way that fully legitimizes the bitcoin exchange then yes I'm very bullish. I do feel that we're going to move up a little after the current period of consolidation, but it will be a relatively small and hesitant move as long as there's no resolution to these issues, and it could just as easily reverse again the week after. And it's not just that you have to get verified now to trade or that there are no fast, cheap and easy ways to move money in and out like with Dwolla. That's annoying ofcourse, but the main thing is that Gox apparently does not have its act together and trust in the exchange is dwindling. If you can't see that this all would cause a significant loss in volume then you're just blind.

I do understand how it could cause a drop in volume, but not to current levels. There are other factors in play that have a greater impact on the price and volume, imo.

[IG0BR0KE]

i got the feeling a guy is slowly dumping dont you think?

[solex]

Yes, a lot of weird people are buying now. You didn't sell? I did, and I'm from Slovenia. I didn't know that even more screwed up countries exist. Where are you from (some part of Balkan I guess or America)?

bitcodo, Is there widespread recognition of Bitcoin in Slovenia? Are people considering it a safety net in case a Cyprus-like bail-in situation happens to Slovenian banks?

[adamstgBit]

not even one person wants a piece of that wall   i think i sold too early.... oh well, i'm confident if i wait long enough i'll buy back lower...



fair price discovery is fair. BTC
  adam says buy monday night, the latest! ; )

[ChartBuddy]

[hlynur]

Volume isn't just lower compared to post-crash, but also before that:

That's probably because of the recent incidents with regulations. Many people are waiting until that is cleared up before they can confidently trade again on Gox. Until then the volume will stay extremely low, with short increases in volume during price changes.

Wishful thinking, bull.

A more likely scenario is that speculators consider the price too high (potential reward greatly outweighed by risk at the moment), stubborn miners in a more competitive environment are holding positions, stubborn sellers are not willing to go lower than their entry point and there is a much reduced flow of money into Gox for numerous reasons, including potential new investors sitting on the sidelines viewing a stagnant price and considering the likely weaker returns. Doubful that the regulations are primarily responsible for widespread panic or reluctance to buy in. It is true that the regulations make it more difficult to get money into Gox, but generally only for the criminal-minded. If you have nothing to hide, it is still easy to transfer money, for example via wire.

I would entertain the possibility that recent regulations have scared away a small minority of criminals who were using bitcoin for money laundering. If this minority was responsible for most of the previous volume and are now absent, then I'd bet on a long, drawn-out downturn.

thread getting quiet again so i add my two cents:

I think money laundering is still very easy despite coming regulations and with everything around bitcoin adapting/growing more and more I can't see any long downturn (It's like to foresee a long downturn because silkroad is put down for some months). Governments must figure out a way to integrate digital currencies into their financial and lawsystem.
As always that takes quite some time and even then they won't get a complete hold of it. (I mean they still haven't completely figured that prevention of launderying out with fiat how will they succeed doing that with btc???)
Imo the low volume is because we're still in the situation with an oversold market. Too many bears have sold around 120$ in the last weeks and can't believe it's still not going down despite FR news and they don't want to buy in at loss.
Low volumes would logically just put marketaction away from daytrading into another timezone with speculators selling/buying and holding fiat/btc in longer timespans until next big swings they can hop onto.
so everything went to slow-motion.
I awaited bigger selloff around 135$ some days ago (which came) but it didn't push all the way down. So with wallzilla in mind i would say we could scratch 140$ soon and settle between 130-140$ next week with some up and downswings.
Don't know what happens if wallzilla is away again but there wasn't much movement before it appeared so I really can't imagine going under 120$ for next week (perhaps a little nibbling as we haven't tested it before.
You never know...one little news flick and shorttime panicmode is on again.

So I'm no expert but watching the progress of may altogether things look quite good. Everything began with big dump, followed by small dumping and no serious panicsells with FR news, we now finished that month with more than 30% plus since dobledigitdisaster and haven't returned there once.
I'm longterm bull so I always look at longer timespans...
.....only thing I just don't trust is that wall (it feels securing and frightening at the same time ).

[ChartBuddy]

[zoinky]

not even one person wants a piece of that wall   i think i sold too early.... oh well, i'm confident if i wait long enough i'll buy back lower...



fair price discovery is fair. BTC
  adam says buy monday night, the latest! ; )

I remember you falling into a similar situation when we crossed $15 I believe?  Did you ever buy back?

[hlynur]

Yes, a lot of weird people are buying now. You didn't sell? I did, and I'm from Slovenia. I didn't know that even more screwed up countries exist. Where are you from (some part of Balkan I guess or America)?

bitcodo, Is there widespread recognition of Bitcoin in Slovenia? Are people considering it a safety net in case a Cyprus-like bail-in situation happens to Slovenian banks?

from what i read on european news i have the impression that people in slovenia will have more time to safe their money from bail-ins than in cyprus (which they made an example of and where the bail-in came really fast)
It looks like european commission is playing on time so we'll see if people there prefer other options over btc.
One thing to mention in this case is definitively that bitstamp bank is Unicredit banka Slovenija (slovenian branch from italian UniCredit).
(perhaps most of you know this - i didn't because I don't use bitstamp, just gox and some domestic ones)
that could get interesting in a possible bail-in situation

[foo]

Someone is running a bot on BitStamp that buys exactly 1 BTC at the lowest ask price every minute. (If there is 1 BTC available, otherwise it buys whatever is there.)

Costs about $7700 to run that bot for an hour, let's see how much ammo it's got.

[ChartBuddy]

[adamstgBit]

not even one person wants a piece of that wall   i think i sold too early.... oh well, i'm confident if i wait long enough i'll buy back lower...



fair price discovery is fair. BTC
  adam says buy monday night, the latest! ; )

I remember you falling into a similar situation when we crossed $15 I believe?  Did you ever buy back?

no after selling at 15 to 27ish, I cashed out the money, i did buy some at 80 & 100 recently but i sold that at 127ish a few days ago.

[nmersulypnem]

Someone is running a bot on BitStamp that buys exactly 1 BTC at the lowest ask price every minute. (If there is 1 BTC available, otherwise it buys whatever is there.)

Costs about $7700 to run that bot for an hour, let's see how much ammo it's got.

That isn't a bot - that's Bitstamp creating fake trades to pump its volume numbers and feign liquidity.