The 2014 Price Prediction Contest shows some interesting results:
The first prediction round results are here!We have 8 entries in the game, and all submitted a prediction for all 8 months (price in last day of May, June, ... December).
The summary of the monthly predictions is as follows:
Arithmetic average is the simple average of the weighted simple average of all the prodictions. The high values affect this a lot, for which reason it is generally rather high figure, even for the nearest months.
Geometric average is the weighted simple average of the geometric average of all the predictions, scaled to 100% (due to geometric averaging, the sum of the geometric averages is only about 50%). This is what I would use as the consensus average.
Median is the midpoint of the probability density (geometric averages used), and would be near the consensus "most likely case".
Mean is the slot with the highest probability (geometric), and would be near the consensus "most likely case" as well.
Months go from May to December. m
BTC, decimal comma.
I will send the "orange sheet" to sgbett and he can distribute it to the contestants.
arith ave 2,08 2,57 3,08 3,68 4,35 4,97 5,96 7,47
geom ave 0,58 0,68 0,77 0,92 1,06 1,17 1,90 3,19
median 0,47 0,53 0,6 0,67 0,67 0,75 0,84 0,94
mode 0,47 0,47 0,47 0,53 0,53 0,53 0,6 0,75
Taking a simple average of all the predictions, we are forecasted to be at $7.5 (add 000 if you still want to stick to whole bitcoins despite the poll results) at the close of the year. By using geometric averages, which penalize the outlier predictions, the price would be only $3.2
The geometric average is forecasted to grow quite steadily until October, resulting in a 2.5x gain in 6 months from current levels. Compared to the trendline, this would result in the price languishing at about -0.4 or less for all this time, before the turn.
Median (same probability below and above this price) shows even more contained increase with a 10% monthly gain on average.
Even worse for the mode. The most probable (according to forecasters) single price slot for the next 6 months is only around $0.5.
Poll
