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Question: How long until 70K (credit: Heslo)
1 week - 20 (19.4%)
1 month - 64 (62.1%)
1 year - 2 (1.9%)
the top is in - math and science confirms it - 17 (16.5%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25264938 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13 users deleted.)
Erdogan
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May 11, 2014, 12:22:50 PM

ok so let me guess how this might play out:

1. FXBTC played a Gox (fact)
2. Other exchanges might be operating a fractional reserve too (speculation, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=592760.msg6505570#msg6505570) (meh, call me fudster if you want)
3. Chinese traders are worried that other exchanges might pull a Gox too and hence a part of them will aim for the fiat exit door, depressing the price.
4. 1 and 2 add another reason for PBoC to want to "protect the people" and pull the plug on the other exchanges before a large scale Goxxing happens.
5. When/if 4 happens, we will soon discover how much is the impact on price on western exchanges. It might as well be the final test (bit like the "Silk Road bust" test last year) and bring the decoupling that everyone here seems to be expecting.


The rational thing to do if you are afraid, is to convert everything to bitcoin and withdraw. Because

a) it is risky to be in fiat these days

b) it is risky to have funds at exchanges these days.

Bonus: If your favorite exchange goes bust, it is more difficult for the thugs to track you.

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May 11, 2014, 12:36:34 PM

ok so let me guess how this might play out:

1. FXBTC played a Gox (fact)
2. Other exchanges might be operating a fractional reserve too (speculation, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=592760.msg6505570#msg6505570) (meh, call me fudster if you want)
3. Chinese traders are worried that other exchanges might pull a Gox too and hence a part of them will aim for the fiat exit door, depressing the price.
4. 1 and 2 add another reason for PBoC to want to "protect the people" and pull the plug on the other exchanges before a large scale Goxxing happens.
5. When/if 4 happens, we will soon discover how much is the impact on price on western exchanges. It might as well be the final test (bit like the "Silk Road bust" test last year) and bring the decoupling that everyone here seems to be expecting.


The rational thing to do if you are afraid, is to convert everything to bitcoin and withdraw. Because

a) it is risky to be in fiat these days

b) it is risky to have funds at exchanges these days.

Bonus: If your favorite exchange goes bust, it is more difficult for the thugs to track you.



c) it is risky to hold bitcoins these days

Therefore withdraw your money and diversify your portfolio Smiley
TERA
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May 11, 2014, 12:44:43 PM

That SEC article was warning about people who promote investments as being a gauranteed high return and risk free.  Well bitcoin bulls go even one step further than this, to tell you that holding cash itself is risky.
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May 11, 2014, 12:58:30 PM

So are we going to final bottom around $370 next week or not?

Don't bet on that. This could be the last chance to buy < $450.

So this time it is the last last last last chance  Grin

Could be.

I think there will be plenty of chances to buy < $450 until July.
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May 11, 2014, 01:00:51 PM


Explanation
hdbuck
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May 11, 2014, 01:01:40 PM

So are we going to final bottom around $370 next week or not?

Don't bet on that. This could be the last chance to buy < $450.

So this time it is the last last last last chance  Grin

Could be.

I think there will be plenty of chances to buy < $450 until July.

yea, well what about <400$ ? i'm not sure sure Grin
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May 11, 2014, 01:12:01 PM

When I take my 3 month break from bitcoin trading and come back, I bet it'll be exactly $445
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May 11, 2014, 01:13:21 PM

When I take my 3 month break from bitcoin trading and come back, I bet it'll be exactly $445

oh this is what I was waiting for, what is the bet here ?
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May 11, 2014, 01:19:25 PM

rpietila
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May 11, 2014, 01:22:21 PM

That SEC article was warning about people who promote investments as being a gauranteed high return and risk free.  Well bitcoin bulls go even one step further than this, to tell you that holding cash itself is risky.

Cash is not risky. You are guaranteed to lose, and the guarantee is backed by the full coercive force of the largest government the world has ever seen.

Not even gold is a guaranteed winner every year, because it is only backed by free market.
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May 11, 2014, 01:24:29 PM




10000 dogecoin ?  Cheesy

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May 11, 2014, 01:26:04 PM

That SEC article was warning about people who promote investments as being a gauranteed high return and risk free.  Well bitcoin bulls go even one step further than this, to tell you that holding cash itself is risky.

Cash is not risky. You are guaranteed to lose, and the guarantee is backed by the full coercive force of the largest government the world has ever seen.

Not even gold is a guaranteed winner every year, because it is only backed by free market.

Let me reprhrase this then... Bitcoin bulls go one step further to tell you not only is Bitcoin risk-free but that if you aren't holding bitcoins, you are taking a risk because holding fiat is risky and bitcoin is clearly the way out of that risk. So bitcoin is not only risk free, but acts as an inverse risk. It is the infallible investment made in heaven and you you need to buy buy buy or die. They are not only going to quell your fears about holding bitcoin but make you fear NOT holding bitcoin. Because bitcoin is the solution for the apocalypse and when the system fails, bitcoiners will become filthy rich. It is the DESTINY. Bitcoin is like a rapture and you need to be on board or be left to perish.
damnek
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May 11, 2014, 01:28:52 PM

When I take my 3 month break from bitcoin trading and come back, I bet it'll be exactly $445

Please do Smiley
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May 11, 2014, 01:29:13 PM

When I take my 3 month break from bitcoin trading and come back, I bet it'll be exactly $445

3 months?  You will really stop trading and posting for 3 months?
When do you start the stop Smiley?
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May 11, 2014, 01:34:11 PM

When I take my 3 month break from bitcoin trading and come back, I bet it'll be exactly $445

3 months?  You will really stop trading and posting for 3 months?
When do you start the stop Smiley?
I decided that I would start next time I got a good entry opportunity which was either the next high volume drop into the 300s, or on a breakout of the downtrend, whichever came first. Also, I cannot guarantee that I'll stay away an entire 3 months, or that I'll come back at all. It was a rough estimate of an ideal.

It has been my misfortune that since I made my resolution nearly 3 weeks ago, Bitcoin has traded flat.
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May 11, 2014, 01:42:43 PM

When I take my 3 month break from bitcoin trading and come back, I bet it'll be exactly $445

3 months?  You will really stop trading and posting for 3 months?
When do you start the stop Smiley?
I decided that I would start next time I got a good entry opportunity which was either the next high volume drop into the 300s, or on a breakout of the downtrend, whichever came first. Also, I cannot guarantee that I'll stay away an entire 3 months, or that I'll come back at all. It was a rough estimate of an ideal.

It has been my misfortune that since I made my resolution nearly 3 weeks ago, Bitcoin has traded flat.

Our also, for losing the opportunity to see you take a break.We share the pain Smiley.
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May 11, 2014, 01:43:34 PM


Bitcoin bulls go one step further to tell you not only is Bitcoin risk-free but that if you aren't holding bitcoins, you are taking a risk because holding fiat is risky... bitcoin is... the infallible investment made in heaven... buy buy buy or die... fear NOT holding bitcoin... bitcoin is the solution for the apocalypse... bitcoiners will become filthy rich... you need to be on board or be left to perish...


Yeah but when we start raving like that it acts as the clearest warning possible to those considering joining the gang!  Cheesy
Erdogan
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May 11, 2014, 01:48:04 PM

That SEC article was warning about people who promote investments as being a gauranteed high return and risk free.  Well bitcoin bulls go even one step further than this, to tell you that holding cash itself is risky.

Cash is not risky. You are guaranteed to lose, and the guarantee is backed by the full coercive force of the largest government the world has ever seen.

Not even gold is a guaranteed winner every year, because it is only backed by free market.

Let me reprhrase this then... Bitcoin bulls go one step further to tell you not only is Bitcoin risk-free but that if you aren't holding bitcoins, you are taking a risk because holding fiat is risky and bitcoin is clearly the way out of that risk. So bitcoin is not only risk free, but acts as an inverse risk. It is the infallible investment made in heaven and you you need to buy buy buy or die. They are not only going to quell your fears about holding bitcoin but make you fear NOT holding bitcoin. Because bitcoin is the solution for the apocalypse and when the system fails, bitcoiners will become filthy rich. It is the DESTINY. Bitcoin is like a rapture and you need to be on board or be left to perish.

Not risk free. There is a risk, but also a reward. You can assert the probability to each of a few possible outcomes, and compute an aggregate expectation.

You can also do that with fiat, there is a small risk of deflation, which will give you a positive reward (if you can catch it flying by), there is a risk of 2% loss if you believe the current statistics, 5% if you don't. Then there is a real risk of stagflation, where the inflation rate can come up to 20 % easily.

So the expectation, modified by risk, is say 5 percent loss in case of fiat, and conservatively a 100 percent gain in bitcoin.

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May 11, 2014, 01:50:37 PM

Let me reprhrase this then... Bitcoin bulls go one step further to tell you not only is Bitcoin risk-free but that if you aren't holding bitcoins, you are taking a risk because holding fiat is risky and bitcoin is clearly the way out of that risk. So bitcoin is not only risk free, but acts as an inverse risk. It is the infallible investment made in heaven and you you need to buy buy buy or die. They are not only going to quell your fears about holding bitcoin but make you fear NOT holding bitcoin. Because bitcoin is the solution for the apocalypse and when the system fails, bitcoiners will become filthy rich. It is the DESTINY. Bitcoin is like a rapture and you need to be on board or be left to perish.

Pretty much correct. Unlike most religions, however, you can choose to invest whichever portion of your assets you like, and trade the position in an out as you wish. This flexibility makes it difficult for traditional religions to compete.
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May 11, 2014, 02:00:53 PM


Explanation
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