Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Erdogan]

Is it not obvious that without FRESH FIAT (I think I am going to change my user name to this) that these markets cannot go up? And there is no way for fresh fiat to reach the Chinese exchanges.
[...]

It is not obvious, not even correct.

The price come from the minds of all actors. When they take action like putting up a bid or an ask, we have supply and demand. Low trade volume means all traders change their minds in concert. Under low volume, prices can go up, down or sideways. Low volume and sideways price action, like we have had the last days, means that all actors are happy with the current price and their current stash.

When some traders change their mind, up or down, and take action differently from all others, we have trade volume.

For fiat in or out to exchanges to be necessary, we need to have new persons to get interested and value bitcoin above the current equilibrium price. Current holders value it lower and sells the same amount. That is the meaning of equilibrium, which we have at all times as long as the exchanges work.

So we can have low volume, high volume with current users, and high volume with new users. The prices are not directly connected.

This post is rambling nonsense. Your talking about volume. Im talking about price.

And fresh fiat, which is volume.

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[dreamspark]

windjc, while realising that fresh fiat is important its also necessary to remember the other ways the market can move. eta say theres $10mm on the sidelines at Stamp. Say there's 10k BTC to $1000 if the sellers all leave their sells then $10mm is needed to get there. Say the sentiment changes and or good news. All of a sudden there's only 4k BTC to $1000 this only takes $4mm, 60% less. Im not arguing that fresh fiat isn't important or that it wouldn't help the cause but I think its important to consider other dynamics in the price rising.

Sentiment is not going to change without fresh fiat. It's not. Hell, how much more bullish can sentiment get anyway? We are in a 5 month bear market and most people here are incredibly optimistic. However, these same people have very little new money to invest.

If no one chooses to sell we can't go down. But the longer we flatline the greater the chance that "big bad news" from China will rear its head.

And for those of you that say it can't get worse, it CAN.

I.e. ---> Houbi closes, Houbi is insolvent, China bans bitcoin literally including exchanges, etc etc

I think its important to remember that world wide sentiment can not be gleaned from this thread or this forum.

We're just speculating, everyone thinks their way of seeing things is correct but in reality we wont know until most things happen.

I personally think that a lot of the money is there, its amazing where it all comes from once a bull run starts. I agree that China can always drop a news bomb but their daily exchange volume has been dropping since the middle of feb. I'd argue this is people cashing out and the effect of this has also helped drag the other exchanges down due to coins leaving.

I think what a lot of us disagree on is ,if we could get an exact number now, how many coins do the Chinese have? I'd wager that my answer would be lower than yours 

[dreamspark]

In any market price is directly dependent to amount of money willing to enter the market. 

Thats not true. In any market price is directly dependent on supply and demand dynamics.

[T.Stuart]

In any market price is directly dependent to amount of money willing to enter the market. 

Thats not true. In any market price is directly dependent on supply and demand dynamics.

Directly related to money

[magicmexican]

Oh my god, enormous pumps coming in, last chance to buy below 700$.

[rpietila]

Of course we need new investors and their money. That's pretty obvious. But to me it is also obvious that we will get it, since Bitcoin is logically by far the best EV investment right now. This already implies best returns, but the fact that you are one of the few that knows it, implies pretty much lowest risk as well. The knowledge about Bitcoin can only increase, never decrease. Just wait until someone starts to vote with his wallet.

No-one has promised uptrend until July. That's about the time it takes.

 

[dreamspark]

In any market price is directly dependent to amount of money willing to enter the market.  

Thats not true. In any market price is directly dependent on supply and demand dynamics.

Directly related to money

Well yeah price is a unit of money.

Okay to rephrase slightly.

The amount of money willing to enter the market, offset by the amount of money wanting to leave the market.

If I said to you 100 billion is entering the market you would shout from the roofs how this means that price must go to $1mm each? Right, but what if 101 billion was willing to exit the market. Its a two way street and you cant say just the money entering the market dictates the price.

[T.Stuart]

Of course we need new investors and their money. That's pretty obvious. But to me it is also obvious that we will get it, since Bitcoin is logically by far the best EV investment right now. This already implies best returns, but the fact that you are one of the few that knows it, implies pretty much lowest risk as well. The knowledge about Bitcoin can only increase, never decrease. Just wait until someone starts to vote with his wallet.

No-one has promised uptrend until July. That's about the time it takes.
 

For the long run, I have no doubts about what you are saying. I concur wholeheartedly with the statistics!

But it is the limbo currently being set up by the Chinese government that has me worried. Can you or anyone point to an analagous situation for another type of stock, asset, commodity, etc. (some say we should not compare these things with Bitcoin but we have to start somewhere) ?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Krabby]

Oh my god, enormous pumps coming in, last chance to buy below 700$.

Is the wait making you more delusional than usual?

[niothor]

Oh my god, enormous pumps coming in, last chance to buy below 700$.

Is the wait making you more delusional than usual?

We need such bull in this thread where the usual two bears spread their "honey" everyday .

[rpietila]

Of course we need new investors and their money. That's pretty obvious. But to me it is also obvious that we will get it, since Bitcoin is logically by far the best EV investment right now. This already implies best returns, but the fact that you are one of the few that knows it, implies pretty much lowest risk as well. The knowledge about Bitcoin can only increase, never decrease. Just wait until someone starts to vote with his wallet.

No-one has promised uptrend until July. That's about the time it takes.
 

For the long run, I have no doubts about what you are saying. I concur wholeheartedly with the statistics!

But it is the limbo currently being set up by the Chinese government that has me worried. Can you or anyone point to an analagous situation for another type of stock, asset, commodity, etc. (some say we should not compare these things with Bitcoin but we have to start somewhere) ?

I have never taken the whole China debacle seriously, so I am unable to comment. Imo the bust follows a boom, and the seeds of a new boom are thus sown, and news don't matter.

If the price was trending upwards in 4 figures now, which one of you cared a shit about China? The fact that you are anxious about the price is the reason you are anxious about China, not the other way round.

Patience.

[nidhogg1]

Brothers, sisters, bulls....rejoice for the dark ages for bitcoin are soon over!

Tonight i had a dream, that the prices were constantly being pumped. We are talking well beyond one million bitcoins.

In a timespan of 5 hours the prices rose 450 > 500 > 600 > *bears become bulls* > 800 > 1100 > 1500 > *weak hands dump for a quick profit* > 1333 > 1800 > 2300!!!

The prices will rise so quickly that the bots wont be able to catch up and there will be a constant $200 gap between buy and sell.

My dreams are always prophetic, much better than sticks and chats. This is it brethren.....load up on fiat, await the signal and then...... PUUUUUUUMP!

[Searing]

Brothers, sisters, bulls....rejoice for the dark ages for bitcoin are soon over!

Tonight i had a dream, that the prices were constantly being pumped. We are talking well beyond one million bitcoins.

In a timespan of 5 hours the prices rose 450 > 500 > 600 > *bears become bulls* > 800 > 1100 > 1500 > *weak hands dump for a quick profit* > 1333 > 1800 > 2300!!!

The prices will rise so quickly that the bots wont be able to catch up and there will be a constant $200 gap between buy and sell.

My dreams are always prophetic, much better than sticks and chats. This is it brethren.....load up on fiat, await the signal and then...... PUUUUUUUMP!

Hallelujah! can I get an Amen! (agnostic thou I am I'll use what I can to get bitcoin price up...shameless)

 

[niothor]

Brothers, sisters, bulls....rejoice for the dark ages for bitcoin are soon over!

Tonight i had a dream, that the prices were constantly being pumped. We are talking well beyond one million bitcoins.

In a timespan of 5 hours the prices rose 450 > 500 > 600 > *bears become bulls* > 800 > 1100 > 1500 > *weak hands dump for a quick profit* > 1333 > 1800 > 2300!!!

The prices will rise so quickly that the bots wont be able to catch up and there will be a constant $200 gap between buy and sell.

My dreams are always prophetic, much better than sticks and chats. This is it brethren.....load up on fiat, await the signal and then...... PUUUUUUUMP!

Don't eat before going to sleep. . It's bad for your health , and your dreams.

[T.Stuart]

Of course we need new investors and their money. That's pretty obvious. But to me it is also obvious that we will get it, since Bitcoin is logically by far the best EV investment right now. This already implies best returns, but the fact that you are one of the few that knows it, implies pretty much lowest risk as well. The knowledge about Bitcoin can only increase, never decrease. Just wait until someone starts to vote with his wallet.

No-one has promised uptrend until July. That's about the time it takes.
 

For the long run, I have no doubts about what you are saying. I concur wholeheartedly with the statistics!

But it is the limbo currently being set up by the Chinese government that has me worried. Can you or anyone point to an analagous situation for another type of stock, asset, commodity, etc. (some say we should not compare these things with Bitcoin but we have to start somewhere) ?

I have never taken the whole China debacle seriously, so I am unable to comment. Imo the bust follows a boom, and the seeds of a new boom are thus sown, and news don't matter.

If the price was trending upwards in 4 figures now, which one of you cared a shit about China? The fact that you are anxious about the price is the reason you are anxious about China, not the other way round.

Patience.

No problem with the long game at all. I'm in.

Just interested whether anyone can point me to a remotely similar situation - perhaps a commodity that is heavily controlled in some countries but traded freely in others - so that some understanding of the implications for the global market may be understood.

[T.Stuart]

Warren Buffet, our bitcoin bull  , once said: “wealth is the transfer of money from the impatient to the patient.”

Wasn't it that the "stock market is a wonderful way of transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient"?

Sorry to be pedantic! 

[rpietila]

Just interested whether anyone can point me to a remotely similar situation - perhaps a commodity that is heavily controlled in some countries but traded freely in others - so that some understanding of the implications for the global market may be understood.

Gold was forbidden to own in the United States between 1933 and 1974, punishable by $10,000 fine and/or 10 years imprisonment.

Meanwhile in the free world, the price went up from $20 to $195 during that period.

Background.

[T.Stuart]

Just interested whether anyone can point me to a remotely similar situation - perhaps a commodity that is heavily controlled in some countries but traded freely in others - so that some understanding of the implications for the global market may be understood.

Gold was forbidden to own in the United States between 1933 and 1974, punishable by $10,000 fine and/or 10 years imprisonment.

Meanwhile in the free world, the price went up from $20 to $195 during that period.

Background.

Thanks!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation