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Question: 1/17 Closing Price:
<$33,000 - 4 (5.3%)
$33,000-$34,000 - 1 (1.3%)
$34,000-$35,000 - 2 (2.6%)
$35,000-$36,000 - 1 (1.3%)
$36,000-$37,000 - 3 (3.9%)
$37,000-$38,000 - 7 (9.2%)
$38,000-$39,000 - 4 (5.3%)
$39,000-$40,000 - 9 (11.8%)
$40,000-$41,000 - 8 (10.5%)
$41,000-$42,000 - 6 (7.9%)
$42,000-$43,000 - 4 (5.3%)
>$43,000 - 27 (35.5%)
Total Voters: 76

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25065346 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13 users deleted.)
JorgeStolfi
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May 18, 2014, 12:32:25 AM

There are 5000+ BTC for sale on Huobi for 2900 CNY or less, 120 CNY (20$) above the spread.

On the other hand, the bid side below 2760 is hidden, apparently because there are zillions of tiny bids between 2770 and 2775 CNY (and only in that range).  Could it be on purpose?  If truth is being hidden, it must be ugly...
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May 18, 2014, 12:34:22 AM

There are 5000+ BTC for sale on Huobi for 2900 CNY or less, 120 CNY (20$) above the spread.

On the other hand, the bid side below 2760 is hidden, apparently because there are zillions of tiny bids between 2770 and 2775 CNY (and only in that range).  Could it be on purpose?  If truth is being hidden, it must be ugly...

Jorge your fear mongering is cute.
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May 18, 2014, 01:00:44 AM


Explanation
JayJuanGee
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May 18, 2014, 01:04:29 AM

Yes I was referring to btc price. If bulls don't seize opportunities when they arise, then surely price will go down. The good news doesn't seem to move the market, but I'm fairly sure that bad news will.

But the term "all the way" usually means 0 level.Do you really think we are going all the way down?
Might have to label you a permabear also Smiley.

No I'm not that bearish Smiley I have been bearish since I started trading bitcoin. Looking back I have not had many reasons not to be bearish Smiley

When did you start trading bitcoin?

And did you come to bitcoin b/c of its volatility?

I got involved late February. I heard about Bitcoin a long time before that, but even though I was intrigued I never really took the time to find out more about it. In February I was really into sentiment analysis using NLP (natural language processing) and I was considering writing a program for analyzing Bitcoin trader sentiment. I quickly came to the conclusion that it would be very hard to get anything meaningful from that (just look at this forum Smiley), so I scrapped that project. But while I was investigating I got more interested in trading. After reading a book on the subject and studying the moves I decided to get more involved. The high volatility is definitely a plus, but also stressful at times. I'm currently swing trading, but I'm also looking for a position to go long, so that I can focus more on other projects. If Bitcoin get's into a longer period with low volatility I might take a break from trading or I might get into alts.

Each of us have our different reasons and our different time-lines for getting into BTC.  I understand the sentiment about getting involved while BTC values are on a downtrend; however, I have been into BTC and its downtrend longer than you, since I got started in late November 2013.  I have considered myself to be a BTC long term investor.  So far, I have NOT considered my self a trader and very little have I attempted to profit from trading. 

Certainly the alts have seemed to have more volatility than BTC, and accordingly more potential for profits or losses based on such volatility - yet trading seems to be a losing prospect for anyone except for the big players or bots or those who have learned certain strategies to account for the probably manipulation that takes place with the various cryptos.   

In spite of my reservations regarding trading, I do expect to use some of my profits for trading, once my BTC portfolio is back into the black.... It has been a while since my BTC portfolio has been in the black, so it may be a little while before I am trading... he he he... Nonetheless, I am fairly optimistic that we are going to be witnessing some upward price mobility in the coming months - yet, even if we do NOT witness such, I will likely keep HODLin and buying, absent significant news that would negatively affect BTC fundamentals.
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May 18, 2014, 01:09:07 AM

There are 5000+ BTC for sale on Huobi for 2900 CNY or less, 120 CNY (20$) above the spread.

On the other hand, the bid side below 2760 is hidden, apparently because there are zillions of tiny bids between 2770 and 2775 CNY (and only in that range).  Could it be on purpose?  If truth is being hidden, it must be ugly...

Jorge your fear mongering is cute.

Some call it "cute," and others call it "whacky."   Cheesy
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May 18, 2014, 01:12:11 AM

There are 5000+ BTC for sale on Huobi for 2900 CNY or less, 120 CNY (20$) above the spread.

On the other hand, the bid side below 2760 is hidden, apparently because there are zillions of tiny bids between 2770 and 2775 CNY (and only in that range).  Could it be on purpose?  If truth is being hidden, it must be ugly...

Jorge your fear mongering is cute.

Some call it "cute," and others call it "whacky."   Cheesy

Others call it "describing facts" and making "well-founded inferences."
JorgeStolfi
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May 18, 2014, 01:43:58 AM

Jorge your fear mongering is cute.
The word for "fear" in investment is "prudence".  Wink

But, frankly, I have no idea of what the BTC price will be six months from now.  I can't understand why "the market" thinks that 1 BTC is worth 450$, rather than 45'000$ or 4,50$; so how could I guess what it will think then?

I do expect the price to fall further in the short term, for the reasons that I already gave (and may repost tomorrow if I get a round tuitt).  How far down? We have seen it drop to 350$, it certainly could go down to that.

The CEOs of the Chinese exchanges have given some gloomy statements to the press (links will follow) but have been mostly quiet since the end of April.   There are no new announcements on the sites.  With diminished volume and without the fees from leverage trading, their revenues must have fallen sharply, and their prospects for moving the exchanges outside China aren't great (they would be competing for customers with the Western exchanges, which all together still have less volume than Huobi).  I give high prob to their closure within a couple of months at most.

So I am puzzled by this calm, I can't understand what those Chinese sellers are waiting for.  
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May 18, 2014, 01:56:33 AM
Last edit: May 18, 2014, 03:06:20 AM by Davyd05

There are 5000+ BTC for sale on Huobi for 2900 CNY or less, 120 CNY (20$) above the spread.

On the other hand, the bid side below 2760 is hidden, apparently because there are zillions of tiny bids between 2770 and 2775 CNY (and only in that range).  Could it be on purpose?  If truth is being hidden, it must be ugly...

Jorge your fear mongering is cute.

Some call it "cute," and others call it "whacky."   Cheesy

I was pretty much okay with the content, till the bolded area. Where he goes all X-Files on us.

That is to say it could be just as easily argued that someone could be hiding support bids in case of a flash crash on the low volume at Huobi...we can bicker all we want and speculate...but when we start sounding like late night radio hosts it just becomes cheap and ugly.

I know it would be argued that Jorge is voicing this opinion to perhaps save someone from making bad investments but it seem more like fear mongering to scare some noobs to being afraid of China that they sell at or near a bottom.
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May 18, 2014, 01:59:55 AM

Volumes are decreasing on Stamp by the day. There is just about as much BTC volume now on Stamp, as there usually is LTC volume on BTC-E (measured in BTC)
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May 18, 2014, 02:00:48 AM


Explanation
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May 18, 2014, 02:22:03 AM

Bitcoin
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May 18, 2014, 02:22:34 AM

http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12

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FINANCE PROFESSOR: Bitcoin Will Crash To $10 By Mid-2014

Can still happen.
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May 18, 2014, 02:25:26 AM

http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12

Quote
FINANCE PROFESSOR: Bitcoin Will Crash To $10 By Mid-2014

Can still happen.
Where can I buy a share of bitcoin?
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May 18, 2014, 02:38:56 AM

What are the 5 last things you paid for with BTC (without converting it to USD before the deal was done) and how long ago were these purchases made?

You're going to get deafening silence, if anybody has an ounce of sense in them.

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May 18, 2014, 02:47:22 AM

I'm also bearish, pessimist on china and surprised by this calm.
The volume continues to drop on Huobi and that was to be expected, since they have no deposits by wire transfer or third party systems, the leverage ended on the 10th May and it seems they already have the flat fee active for certain levels of trade (the translation is obscure: http://www.huobi.com/news/index.php?a=show_notice&id=356), but has dropped also on western exchanges (http://www.bitcoinity.org/markets/list?currency=ALL&span=24h).
Movement might be returning soon and I'm expecting it to be down, even if we can still go up to 2872, an important horizontal resistance.
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May 18, 2014, 02:58:51 AM

The volume [ ... ]  has dropped also on western exchanges
Part of the volume on the Western exchanges has always been arbitrage with the Chinese ones.  Arbitrage moves equivalent amounts of BTC or money on both sides, so, as percentage, it is is more significant on the smaller ones.
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May 18, 2014, 03:00:46 AM


Explanation
JayJuanGee
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May 18, 2014, 03:21:23 AM

There are 5000+ BTC for sale on Huobi for 2900 CNY or less, 120 CNY (20$) above the spread.

On the other hand, the bid side below 2760 is hidden, apparently because there are zillions of tiny bids between 2770 and 2775 CNY (and only in that range).  Could it be on purpose?  If truth is being hidden, it must be ugly...

Jorge your fear mongering is cute.

Some call it "cute," and others call it "whacky."   Cheesy

I was pretty much okay with the content, till the bolded area. Where he goes all X-Files on us.

That is to say it could be just as easily argued that someone could be hiding support bids in case of a flash crash on the low volume at Huobi...we can bicker all we want and speculate...but when we start sounding like late night radio hosts it just becomes cheap and ugly.

I know it would be argued that Jorge is voicing this opinion to perhaps save someone from making bad investments but it seem more like fear mongering to scare some noobs to being afraid of China that they sell at or near a bottom.


What you call "fear mongering" Jorge calls "prudence mongering" and I call "wacky mongering."

In the end, Dave05, I agree with you, and both of us may be giving too much dignity to Jorge by responding to what seems to be his disingenuous "contributions" that really serve to misinform and emphasize tangential and speculative issues.  Yes, this is a speculative thread, but his investment seems questionable, at best - to supposedly save us from ourselves.  In other words, buy a bitcoin, Jorge, to bring some credibility to your participation.   Angry



JayJuanGee
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May 18, 2014, 03:25:01 AM

What are the 5 last things you paid for with BTC (without converting it to USD before the deal was done) and how long ago were these purchases made?

You're going to get deafening silence, if anybody has an ounce of sense in them.




Why's that?  We are just sharing informal information.  I have NOT made substantial purchases with bitcoin, yet hopefully, the recent legislation will change bitcoin, in the usa from its current treatment as a commodity to the status of a foreign currency, for the purposes of taxes....
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May 18, 2014, 03:42:17 AM

I know it would be argued that Jorge is voicing this opinion to perhaps save someone from making bad investments but it seem more like fear mongering to scare some noobs to being afraid of China that they sell at or near a bottom.
his investment seems questionable, at best - to supposedly save us from ourselves.
I don't want to save anyone on this thread. I assume you all are adults and know the game you are gambling in.  I feel that I have an obligation to warn people who may be lured into investing in bitcoin with false promises, but they are unlikely to be reading here.
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