Bitcoin Forum
September 22, 2019, 04:52:24 AM *
News: If you like a topic and you see an orange "bump" link, click it. More info.
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Poll
Question: Sept. 21 Closing Price:
$0 - 4 (3.7%)
<$8,000 - 5 (4.6%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 1 (0.9%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 2 (1.8%)
$9,000-$9,500 - 5 (4.6%)
$9,500-$10,000 - 7 (6.4%)
$10,000-$10,500 - 25 (22.9%)
$10,500-$11,000 - 20 (18.3%)
$11,000-$11,500 - 19 (17.4%)
$11,500-$12,000 - 6 (5.5%)
>$12,000 - 8 (7.3%)
>$20,000 - 7 (6.4%)
Total Voters: 109

Pages: « 1 ... 10464 10465 10466 10467 10468 10469 10470 10471 10472 10473 10474 10475 10476 10477 10478 10479 10480 10481 10482 10483 10484 10485 10486 10487 10488 10489 10490 10491 10492 10493 10494 10495 10496 10497 10498 10499 10500 10501 10502 10503 10504 10505 10506 10507 10508 10509 10510 10511 10512 10513 [10514] 10515 10516 10517 10518 10519 10520 10521 10522 10523 10524 10525 10526 10527 10528 10529 10530 10531 10532 10533 10534 10535 10536 10537 10538 10539 10540 10541 10542 10543 10544 10545 10546 10547 10548 10549 10550 10551 10552 10553 10554 10555 10556 10557 10558 10559 10560 10561 10562 10563 10564 ... 25043 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21374906 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (106 posts by 21 users deleted.)
Holderbert
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 42
Merit: 0


View Profile
January 11, 2015, 06:06:46 PM

most post-bubble bagholders would sell as soon as they can break even if they could  to get out of this mess
That's actually one of the bigger issues of the near future.

That's not even a problem.

Let them sell. Others will buy.

I don't see a problem. People are selling Bitcoin every day.
People are buying Bitcoin every day.
People are dumping Bitcoins every day.

And it will be like this till the end of the Bitcoin/World.
Well those who would dump them are those would are not actually using the BTC but rather holding them to make profit and therefore don't really help btc grow.
1569127944
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1569127944

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1569127944
Reply with quote  #2

1569127944
Report to moderator
1569127944
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1569127944

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1569127944
Reply with quote  #2

1569127944
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1569127944
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1569127944

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1569127944
Reply with quote  #2

1569127944
Report to moderator
JorgeStolfi
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 910
Merit: 1002



View Profile
January 11, 2015, 06:07:39 PM

Ultimately I think the only way to stop the constant crashing is if the international buyers find enough interest in bitcoin to buy a large chunk of the coins back from China.

Independently of whether the Chinese exchanges are solvent or fake or whatever, I still believe that lots of coins (at least 500 000 BTC, perhaps a couple million) went from "Western" hand to Chinese hands last November.

And I also believe that those coins have been coming back to the West since then (via arbitragers), as the Chinese are gradually losing interest in "bitcoin gambling".  But the Chinese day-traders still have enough coins in the exchanges to set the price.

And I believe that the price has been generally dropping since then (apart from the two mini-bubbles I mentioned earlier) because there aren't enough people in the West willing to buy those coins that the Chinese want to sell -- plus the 3600 coins that are mined each day, plus the unknow number of old cheap coins that early adopters may be cashing out.

This chart shows that each day about 4 million bitcoin-days are destroyed, considering only coins that have not moved in the past year.  That could man people moving 11'000 coins that were not moved for 1 year, or 5500 coins that were not moved by 2 years, etc.  

It is hard to interpret these numbers, because "coins moving" does not mean "coins changing hands".  Even so, it seems quite possible that early adopters are cashing out 1000 BTC/day.  In that case, the people who are starting or increasing their BTC holdings would have to give 270'000 US$/day to those early adopters, in addition to the 1 M US$/day they must give to the miners, in order to maintain the price.

DaRude
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1762
Merit: 1047


In order to dump coins one must have coins


View Profile
January 11, 2015, 06:13:18 PM

Hmm i've expected a much higher demand at these levels  Cry seems like no one wants to trade at these prices. Looks like China is dragging everyone down, over 2% spread between Hooboy and Finex. Well the good part is these low prices should fuck up the centralized miners who i'm guessing are behind these daily 2k dumps trying to stay afloat. Free market at it's best
Wekkel
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2268
Merit: 1148


yes


View Profile
January 11, 2015, 06:14:07 PM

The best solution for low prices is low prices. At some point in this decline, demand will pick up. Holding fiat ready...
podyx
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1890
Merit: 1012



View Profile
January 11, 2015, 06:16:22 PM

Few people actually seem to think this is the bottom despite the low prices, that's what leads me to believe we are entering a bullmarket right now. I still think we should have 1 last leg down though
macsga
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002


Strange, yet attractive.


View Profile
January 11, 2015, 06:20:11 PM

Ultimately I think the only way to stop the constant crashing is if the international buyers find enough interest in bitcoin to buy a large chunk of the coins back from China.

Independently of whether the Chinese exchanges are solvent or fake or whatever, I still believe that lots of coins (at least 500 000 BTC, perhaps a couple million) went from "Western" hand to Chinese hands last November.

And I also believe that those coins have been coming back to the West since then (via arbitragers), as the Chinese are gradually losing interest in "bitcoin gambling".  But the Chinese day-traders still have enough coins in the exchanges to set the price.

And I believe that the price has been generally dropping since then (apart from the two mini-bubbles I mentioned earlier) because there aren't enough people in the West willing to buy those coins that the Chinese want to sell -- plus the 3600 coins that are mined each day, plus the unknow number of old cheap coins that early adopters may be cashing out.

This chart shows that each day about 4 million bitcoin-days are destroyed, considering only coins that have not moved in the past year.  That could man people moving 11'000 coins that were not moved for 1 year, or 5500 coins that were not moved by 2 years, etc.  

It is hard to interpret these numbers, because "coins moving" does not mean "coins changing hands".  Even so, it seems quite possible that early adopters are cashing out 1000 BTC/day.  In that case, the people who are starting or increasing their BTC holdings would have to give 270'000 US$/day to those early adopters, in addition to the 1 M US$/day they must give to the miners, in order to maintain the price.


@JorgeStolfi
Looking on a chart should be according to the respective timescale. Time is of the essence my friend.
I'd propose to take a look here: https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year?showDataPoints=false&timespan=356days&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0

Makes a difference when you look it from different perspective, no?
bad trader
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 344
Merit: 250


View Profile
January 11, 2015, 06:20:41 PM

Hmm i've expected a much higher demand at these levels  Cry seems like no one wants to trade at these prices.
It's a weekend and Bitstamp is likely to have a fiat shortage right now. I don't get why China thinks a weekend is a good time to dump aside from manipulation.
pjviitas
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 434
Merit: 250


View Profile
January 11, 2015, 06:22:23 PM

Funny part is that people seems to forgot, that Bitcoin price can double in less than month with not a big problem.

We saw already many rallies. Worrying about low price is just waste of time.

Sit back, relax. get money to buy more BTC. That's all.



I have to agree...panicking is not the answer.

Even if BTC goes to fractions of a dollar it can bounce back to $10,000 the following year.

BTC is not controlled by any bank or government agency...it's value can be anything.

I think if people stopped treating BTC like fiat there would be a lot less panic.
DaRude
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1762
Merit: 1047


In order to dump coins one must have coins


View Profile
January 11, 2015, 06:23:42 PM

Ultimately I think the only way to stop the constant crashing is if the international buyers find enough interest in bitcoin to buy a large chunk of the coins back from China.

Independently of whether the Chinese exchanges are solvent or fake or whatever, I still believe that lots of coins (at least 500 000 BTC, perhaps a couple million) went from "Western" hand to Chinese hands last November.

And I also believe that those coins have been coming back to the West since then (via arbitragers), as the Chinese are gradually losing interest in "bitcoin gambling".  But the Chinese day-traders still have enough coins in the exchanges to set the price.

And I believe that the price has been generally dropping since then (apart from the two mini-bubbles I mentioned earlier) because there aren't enough people in the West willing to buy those coins that the Chinese want to sell -- plus the 3600 coins that are mined each day, plus the unknow number of old cheap coins that early adopters may be cashing out.

This chart shows that each day about 4 million bitcoin-days are destroyed, considering only coins that have not moved in the past year.  That could man people moving 11'000 coins that were not moved for 1 year, or 5500 coins that were not moved by 2 years, etc.  

It is hard to interpret these numbers, because "coins moving" does not mean "coins changing hands".  Even so, it seems quite possible that early adopters are cashing out 1000 BTC/day.  In that case, the people who are starting or increasing their BTC holdings would have to give 270'000 US$/day to those early adopters, in addition to the 1 M US$/day they must give to the miners, in order to maintain the price.



Selling BTC1k is not sustainable, you must have coins to sell coins, sooner or later that source will dry up. Supply of BTC3.6k/day will drop 50% in one year as intended. Both points suggest that bear market will end at certain time even if demand doesn't rise but stays constant, where these points will meet is the true question.
samsonn25
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 882
Merit: 1003



View Profile
January 11, 2015, 06:25:30 PM

Hmm i've expected a much higher demand at these levels  Cry seems like no one wants to trade at these prices. Looks like China is dragging everyone down, over 2% spread between Hooboy and Finex. Well the good part is these low prices should fuck up the centralized miners who i'm guessing are behind these daily 2k dumps trying to stay afloat. Free market at it's best

The level you expect is much higher?  $1000-$2000?

Now is $272

2 years ago is was only $12



samsonn25
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 882
Merit: 1003



View Profile
January 11, 2015, 06:27:25 PM

Ultimately I think the only way to stop the constant crashing is if the international buyers find enough interest in bitcoin to buy a large chunk of the coins back from China.

Independently of whether the Chinese exchanges are solvent or fake or whatever, I still believe that lots of coins (at least 500 000 BTC, perhaps a couple million) went from "Western" hand to Chinese hands last November.

And I also believe that those coins have been coming back to the West since then (via arbitragers), as the Chinese are gradually losing interest in "bitcoin gambling".  But the Chinese day-traders still have enough coins in the exchanges to set the price.

And I believe that the price has been generally dropping since then (apart from the two mini-bubbles I mentioned earlier) because there aren't enough people in the West willing to buy those coins that the Chinese want to sell -- plus the 3600 coins that are mined each day, plus the unknow number of old cheap coins that early adopters may be cashing out.

This chart shows that each day about 4 million bitcoin-days are destroyed, considering only coins that have not moved in the past year.  That could man people moving 11'000 coins that were not moved for 1 year, or 5500 coins that were not moved by 2 years, etc.  

It is hard to interpret these numbers, because "coins moving" does not mean "coins changing hands".  Even so, it seems quite possible that early adopters are cashing out 1000 BTC/day.  In that case, the people who are starting or increasing their BTC holdings would have to give 270'000 US$/day to those early adopters, in addition to the 1 M US$/day they must give to the miners, in order to maintain the price.



Selling BTC1k is not sustainable, you must have coins to sell coins, sooner or later that source will dry up. Supply of BTC3.6k/day will drop 50% in one year as intended. Both points suggest that bear market will end at certain time even if demand doesn't rise but stays constant, where these points will meet is the true question.


Assuming demand doesn't drop.

Meaning that there still has to be more buyers than sellers for price to rise.
DaRude
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1762
Merit: 1047


In order to dump coins one must have coins


View Profile
January 11, 2015, 06:31:01 PM

Ultimately I think the only way to stop the constant crashing is if the international buyers find enough interest in bitcoin to buy a large chunk of the coins back from China.

Independently of whether the Chinese exchanges are solvent or fake or whatever, I still believe that lots of coins (at least 500 000 BTC, perhaps a couple million) went from "Western" hand to Chinese hands last November.

And I also believe that those coins have been coming back to the West since then (via arbitragers), as the Chinese are gradually losing interest in "bitcoin gambling".  But the Chinese day-traders still have enough coins in the exchanges to set the price.

And I believe that the price has been generally dropping since then (apart from the two mini-bubbles I mentioned earlier) because there aren't enough people in the West willing to buy those coins that the Chinese want to sell -- plus the 3600 coins that are mined each day, plus the unknow number of old cheap coins that early adopters may be cashing out.

This chart shows that each day about 4 million bitcoin-days are destroyed, considering only coins that have not moved in the past year.  That could man people moving 11'000 coins that were not moved for 1 year, or 5500 coins that were not moved by 2 years, etc.  

It is hard to interpret these numbers, because "coins moving" does not mean "coins changing hands".  Even so, it seems quite possible that early adopters are cashing out 1000 BTC/day.  In that case, the people who are starting or increasing their BTC holdings would have to give 270'000 US$/day to those early adopters, in addition to the 1 M US$/day they must give to the miners, in order to maintain the price.



Selling BTC1k is not sustainable, you must have coins to sell coins, sooner or later that source will dry up. Supply of BTC3.6k/day will drop 50% in one year as intended. Both points suggest that bear market will end at certain time even if demand doesn't rise but stays constant, where these points will meet is the true question.


Assuming demand doesn't drop.

Meaning that there still has to be more buyers than sellers for price to rise.

Well yeah think it's basic supply/demand problem. Supply is pretty much guaranteed to drop. So
demand goes up=price up
demand constant,=price up
demand drops less than supply=price up
demand drops more than supply=price down.
Place your bets accordingly. I for one would love to see centralized miners go out of business and start closing farms.
JorgeStolfi
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 910
Merit: 1002



View Profile
January 11, 2015, 06:31:04 PM

@JorgeStolfi
Looking on a chart should be according to the respective timescale. Time is of the essence my friend.
I'd propose to take a look here: https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year?showDataPoints=false&timespan=356days&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0

Makes a difference when you look it from different perspective, no?

Sorry, what is the point?  I did not say anything about that number increasing or decreasing.  I just used its current value.

However, eyeballing that chart, some 200 M BTC-day were destroyed in Mar/2014, and some 150 M in Feb/2014.  I wonder what those events were. 

By the way, note that the 0 level in that chart is the second line from bottom, not the first one.
esse83
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 545
Merit: 500


View Profile
January 11, 2015, 06:36:22 PM

@JorgeStolfi
Looking on a chart should be according to the respective timescale. Time is of the essence my friend.
I'd propose to take a look here: https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year?showDataPoints=false&timespan=356days&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0

Makes a difference when you look it from different perspective, no?

Sorry, what is the point?  I did not say anything about that number increasing or decreasing.  I just used its current value.

However, eyeballing that chart, some 200 M BTC-day were destroyed in Mar/2014, and some 150 M in Feb/2014.  I wonder what those events were.  

By the way, note that the 0 level in that chart is the second line from bottom, not the first one.

Mark Karpeles moved BTC200k of old coins around that time.

edit: https://blockchain.info/address/1KecDYadohxk8MCDqKF8SBEMhCUNveAsCj
JorgeStolfi
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 910
Merit: 1002



View Profile
January 11, 2015, 06:42:45 PM

eyeballing that chart, some 200 M BTC-day were destroyed in Mar/2014, a

Mark Karpeles moved BTC200k of old coins around that time.

edit: https://blockchain.info/address/1KecDYadohxk8MCDqKF8SBEMhCUNveAsCj

That "old format wallet" could be it, yes: 200 kBTC that had not been moved since the end of mid 2011 (about 1000 days before).

DeadCoin
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 742
Merit: 260



View Profile
January 11, 2015, 06:43:09 PM

Hmm i've expected a much higher demand at these levels  Cry seems like no one wants to trade at these prices. Looks like China is dragging everyone down, over 2% spread between Hooboy and Finex. Well the good part is these low prices should fuck up the centralized miners who i'm guessing are behind these daily 2k dumps trying to stay afloat. Free market at it's best

Bulls (bag holders, scammers, early adopters, cultists, trolls) want you to believe that.
Just look at this topic https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=767255.0
There should be crazy strong buying pressure below 300, but guess what, nothing happens. Bubble is still deflating. Paying almost $300 for internet funny money is still ridiculously overpriced.
ShroomsKit
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 672
Merit: 500



View Profile
January 11, 2015, 06:45:48 PM

Funny part is that people seems to forgot, that Bitcoin price can double in less than month with not a big problem.

We saw already many rallies. Worrying about low price is just waste of time.

Sit back, relax. get money to buy more BTC. That's all.



Sure. Just too bad it won't happen anymore. You should be very worried about the low price. Or the fact that Bitcoin turned into nothing more than some pump and dump coin like the 1000 alt coins out there.
esse83
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 545
Merit: 500


View Profile
January 11, 2015, 06:46:09 PM

eyeballing that chart, some 200 M BTC-day were destroyed in Mar/2014, a

Mark Karpeles moved BTC200k of old coins around that time.

edit: https://blockchain.info/address/1KecDYadohxk8MCDqKF8SBEMhCUNveAsCj

That "old format wallet" could be it, yes: 200 kBTC that had not been moved since the end of mid 2011 (about 1000 days before).



The infamous 1933 address also moved two days later:

https://blockchain.info/address/1933phfhK3ZgFQNLGSDXvqCn32k2buXY8a
ShroomsKit
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 672
Merit: 500



View Profile
January 11, 2015, 06:47:29 PM

Hmm i've expected a much higher demand at these levels  Cry seems like no one wants to trade at these prices.
It's a weekend and Bitstamp is likely to have a fiat shortage right now. I don't get why China thinks a weekend is a good time to dump aside from manipulation.

And monday suddenly everyone starts buying for the first time in 12 months?
samson
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1722
Merit: 1018


View Profile
January 11, 2015, 06:49:10 PM

Hmm i've expected a much higher demand at these levels  Cry seems like no one wants to trade at these prices.
It's a weekend and Bitstamp is likely to have a fiat shortage right now. I don't get why China thinks a weekend is a good time to dump aside from manipulation.

And monday suddenly everyone starts buying for the first time in 12 months?

Not a chance
Pages: « 1 ... 10464 10465 10466 10467 10468 10469 10470 10471 10472 10473 10474 10475 10476 10477 10478 10479 10480 10481 10482 10483 10484 10485 10486 10487 10488 10489 10490 10491 10492 10493 10494 10495 10496 10497 10498 10499 10500 10501 10502 10503 10504 10505 10506 10507 10508 10509 10510 10511 10512 10513 [10514] 10515 10516 10517 10518 10519 10520 10521 10522 10523 10524 10525 10526 10527 10528 10529 10530 10531 10532 10533 10534 10535 10536 10537 10538 10539 10540 10541 10542 10543 10544 10545 10546 10547 10548 10549 10550 10551 10552 10553 10554 10555 10556 10557 10558 10559 10560 10561 10562 10563 10564 ... 25043 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!