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Question: Is this the last time we see sub-$10K?
Yes - 18 (48.6%)
No - 19 (51.4%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21528088 times)
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Bitcoiner_cph
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March 16, 2015, 06:13:02 PM

Remember this time, ATH will be in the range of 2500-5000.
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Bagatell
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March 16, 2015, 06:14:57 PM

Remember this time, ATH will be in the range of 2500-5000.

cheapskate  Wink
Bitcoiner_cph
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March 16, 2015, 06:16:44 PM

On stamp someone is making an small wall at 291, but watch this one... I believe he will withdraw as soon as people begin to buy at that price.
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March 16, 2015, 06:19:52 PM

I can tell you that from march the 10th (min price 289 $) till today there were more than 2.5 mil of new longs opened.

they are paying very high interest rates (more than 0.08 % a day).

so going sideways and staying below 300 is putting a lot of pressure on them.

what is going to happens first? Moon or everyone get margin trapped and forced to dump?

So far they have paid 0.5% of 2.5 million in interest. A whopping 12,500 dollars. Pressure? Smiley

We may well dip you could be right. But we are nowhere near a long squeeze and most of those longs are in the money.

dreamspark
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March 16, 2015, 06:21:17 PM



It's possible though margin cascades are hard to predict. There might not be enough selling to even get us sub $280 at this point, though we might go there again due to low volume in general. When the market leaders are bullish and want to go up, watch them shake out the market downward as many times as it takes to clean out enough supply to do it while supporting certain price levels. They have both the bankroll and patience and it is a profitable thing to do.

Those longs who are well capitalized would need sub $200 to get margin called, and that price is close to bear delusion at this point. I expect they would hold through, just as some of the well funded shorts are doing who allowed themselves to be trapped during capitulation. I expect they, on the other hand, are getting mighty nervous as their danger zone is in the $300s. Some of the bearish activity you see is likely groups of them protecting their positions--I saw this activity all the way up from the bottom--seems to work well enough until a whale with a pump bot comes along and decides to annihilate them.

Holding a long at this sort of interest rate through a ~25% decline is stupid and a terrible way to trade though. Its not so much a margin call cascade as a stop loss cascade that could be seen. If people are trading without stop losses then god help them!

I've done it. Had a losing trade that ended up over 20% in the green because I held through. Not optimal, but it worked out. I'm a position trader so I'm holding onto trades for weeks and the cost of the loan is a very small percentage of my overall profits.

I don't trade with stop losses. Whales actively gun for them, so why give them the bait?

An anecdote that it worked out for you that time doesn't mean it will continue to.
It's far from optimal when you can cut your losses and find a way better entry. That trade that netted you 20% overall could have netted you a significantly higher % by re entering when the market reversed.
Obviously everyone should trade how they feel fit but what about the people who opened longs at $900. Should they have held until the market reversed and get margin called. Of course if your trading spot its a different story.
barbs
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March 16, 2015, 06:24:44 PM

It's not Bitcoin unless everyone gets screwed over.
aztecminer
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March 16, 2015, 06:25:22 PM

290 by the end of last week and 290 by now.

I think it confirms we are officially sideways

It's not necessarily a bad thing to go sideways. Everybody expects volatility from BTC because that's what it does, but sideways maybe a sign that it's gaining some sort of stability... on the other hand it may also means that nobody wants to trade  Grin


and no one has any money right now to buy moar.
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March 16, 2015, 06:28:01 PM



Come again?

Your right, let me rephrase. Average over the last 3 or so months (or from the 'bottom' if you like). An important point to remember when the longs were higher than this level in around July to around September the price was much higher. Liquidating $5 million longs in August last year at a price over double what we are now will have course been at far less slippage due to the price being double. Consider the bid sum as well which has only decreased over the last year, that means that this rally has been mostly on leveraged longs and not with 'new money'.

EDIT: Also what happened with the price over the period from ath longs (mid july at a price of ~$640) and now? Then ask yourself why you should be wary of lots of longs being opened. The same amount of longs being open at $300 as $600 should be scary as fuck.
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March 16, 2015, 06:29:12 PM

thanks... for me the more I try to think like a whale the more I imagine they have more to gain by continuing the downtrend.

They will continue in the direction of least resistance according to supply and demand. That is why after capitulation they began pumping instead of dumping. Fighting natural market forces is a good way to go broke, any market professional knows this. They won't do it. There is also a good chance that they can see both sides of the market and have insider connections--so they know when to mark the price up or down ahead of how much fiat is entering the exchanges and what kind of news is coming out.

They've tested the hell out of this price range and it resulted in an accumulation gradient of rising bottoms (likely by multiple competing interests). This is bullish. They see this. We will test downward as many times as needed to break $300. If it means that they hold most of the coins on Finex to do this, so be it. They will be distributed later.
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March 16, 2015, 06:33:44 PM

 its so scary how btc is a few phone calls away from 1k
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March 16, 2015, 06:35:43 PM

Remember this time, ATH will be in the range of 2500-5000.

Bitcoiner_cph
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March 16, 2015, 06:42:30 PM



and no one has any money right now to buy moar.


I get more fiat Wednesday night... Then I will buy more...!! I suppose others are holding fiat will buy before that rsrsrsrs
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March 16, 2015, 06:42:49 PM

what happened with the wall in btce?
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March 16, 2015, 06:44:24 PM

An anecdote that it worked out for you that time doesn't mean it will continue to.
It's far from optimal when you can cut your losses and find a way better entry. That trade that netted you 20% overall could have netted you a significantly higher % by re entering when the market reversed.

Obviously everyone should trade how they feel fit but what about the people who opened longs at $900. Should they have held until the market reversed and get margin called. Of course if your trading spot its a different story.

Indeed, it was during the selloff to $160 and the losses would have been substantial had I cut them. Instead, seeing that we were at a likely capitulation/selling climax after whales sold us off in reaction to the Bitstamp hack news (perfect finale to the bear market, bravo guys) I wasn't about to sell into it. Instead I bought heavily into the selloff and secondary test when I saw it was on low volume, averaging out my trade downward to bank a great profit when it went to $300 on the reaction.

Obviously the sell climax created a unique situation. Crazy trade that turned out to be though Smiley
Brewins
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March 16, 2015, 06:44:45 PM

its so scary how btc is a few phone calls away from 1k

it is only a willy bot away
Bitcoiner_cph
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March 16, 2015, 06:46:30 PM

what happened with the wall in btce?


it disappeared just like all other wall will very soon... the BULL is on!
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March 16, 2015, 06:48:30 PM

NLC hasn't been active for 6 days Shocked
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March 16, 2015, 06:50:44 PM

I can tell you that from march the 10th (min price 289 $) till today there were more than 2.5 mil of new longs opened.

they are paying very high interest rates (more than 0.08 % a day).

so going sideways and staying below 300 is putting a lot of pressure on them.

what is going to happens first? Moon or everyone get margin trapped and forced to dump?

So far they have paid 0.5% of 2.5 million in interest. A whopping 12,500 dollars. Pressure? Smiley

We may well dip you could be right. But we are nowhere near a long squeeze and most of those longs are in the money.



yes, pressure, because I dont see how will they close their positions in green any time soon.

too many people waiting for 300 + just to dump. usually the opposite happens when the vast majority is expecting something.
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March 16, 2015, 06:50:58 PM

NLC hasn't been active for 6 days Shocked

He won't be back until Easter.
dreamspark
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March 16, 2015, 06:54:54 PM

An anecdote that it worked out for you that time doesn't mean it will continue to.
It's far from optimal when you can cut your losses and find a way better entry. That trade that netted you 20% overall could have netted you a significantly higher % by re entering when the market reversed.

Obviously everyone should trade how they feel fit but what about the people who opened longs at $900. Should they have held until the market reversed and get margin called. Of course if your trading spot its a different story.

Indeed, it was during the selloff to $160 and the losses would have been substantial had I cut them. Instead, seeing that we were at a likely capitulation/selling climax after whales sold us off in reaction to the Bitstamp hack news (perfect finale to the bear market, bravo guys) I wasn't about to sell into it. Instead I bought heavily into the selloff and secondary test when I saw it was on low volume, averaging out my trade downward to bank a great profit when it went to $300 on the reaction.

Obviously the sell climax created a unique situation. Crazy trade that turned out to be though Smiley

Ah well that's a completely different story then, cutting your losses into fairly obvious capitulation is not advisable of course. That's a very very unique situation and exactly why I just said an anecdote that worked for you shouldn't be taken as an effective risk management and trading strategy. At pretty much any other time after June last year anyone holding a long position with no stop loss will have been liquidated if it was a long term position.
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