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Question: What happens first:
$65,000 - 59 (86.8%)
$48,000 - 9 (13.2%)
Total Voters: 68

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26336364 times)
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July 03, 2015, 09:01:45 PM

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July 03, 2015, 09:27:01 PM

TODAMOON BICHEZ!!!!!😜
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July 03, 2015, 11:01:59 PM



Sitarow, I've missed your commentary as of late. Any thoughts concerning what may happen over the next 60 days; especially concerning various exchanges, ny, & regulation?
To me, it really is all feeling like the calm before the storm... Just wondering

They finally published:
Financial Services, Department of 7 / Regulation of the Conduct of Virtual Currency Businesses (A)
http://docs.dos.ny.gov/info/register/2015/june24/toc.html

Chinese waking up?
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July 03, 2015, 11:19:48 PM

This is why I like Bitcoin. "Capital controls"  Grin

http://spartanroute.com/

hmm..

I like that $5 template, such professional
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July 04, 2015, 12:44:41 AM

I think we are headed to $32,000 per bitcoin by 2021. We'll see. Maybe that guy holding 100 bitcoin will be a millionaire by 2020. Just like how someone that held BTC5,000 since 2010 (I believe someone from this very forum got a pizza for twice as much that same year) is a millionaire nowadays. That's why I dont believe the FUD trolls. Someone 5 years ago was perfectly comfortable exchanging 2 million dollar's worth of bitcoin (today's value) with a pizza. What will our bitcoins be worth 5 years from now? Extrapolating from that 5-year-change, $32,000 by 2020 is a reasonable goal.
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July 04, 2015, 12:50:44 AM

Long weekend after a big rally? Oh, yeah-we're gonna get a retest of $250. We don't want a rise that's too far too fast. That's unsustainable. We want a train slow enough to allow more people to jump on.
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July 04, 2015, 12:53:34 AM

Keep a close eye on litecoin.  Last time it was moving up here, it was Nov 2013.    Shocked Shocked

Few bull flags.

 Cheesy Cheesy
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July 04, 2015, 01:03:35 AM

i LOVE seeing the price at 256.

next stop 512 plz.
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July 04, 2015, 01:29:10 AM

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July 04, 2015, 02:22:05 AM


What keeps me away from litecoin is the fact that in the end it's just like any other shitcoin expect its the most popular because it was the first really good alt. but sooner or later it's going to get displaced as the king of alts, we'll see a few brand new alts emerge that are built from the ground up, something like NXT or ETH, "bitcoin 2.0" shit coins, that will actually offer something other than bitcoin with a few tweets, and also side chains are going to make altcoins more and more irelevent. I can't imagine how LTC will hold up in the long term.

Yep agreed and IMO bitcoin will also be replaced as the most valued crypto. Sooner or later another "coin" will be out there with enough advantages to make bitcoin look like 2009. To be honest, I feel like I'm at the stone age every time I need to wait for a block to clear my transaction. The huge blockchain is another issue, what is it now, like 35GB? The wasteful mining is also a problem, we're basically just burning energy which could be used for better thing like food, heating or transportation. Bitcoin is a cool experiment and I'm privileged to have had the opportunity to follow it's growing for more than two and a half year, but this is not our new world reserve currency. Neither is litecoin, monero or NXT. ETH perhaps, but I'd found that unlikely too.

The question is if bitcoin can do one more bubble.  Cool
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July 04, 2015, 02:22:23 AM




I thought I had 'big brass ones' just hoarding all my LTC you Sir have such big brass ones you must 'clank' when you cross your legs... Smiley

I sir salute you! and shall cower in the LTC trenches as you march towards the sound of ASIC guns

(shudder soooo scary)

I'm just playing with house money, take a shot here and there and hope it pans out.

I'm curious though, how much litecoin per month per titan are you getting?    I think the Neptune were down to about 1.5 btc per month each before summer heat got to me and I turned them off.
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July 04, 2015, 02:33:20 AM

I just did an estimate of the "Bitcoin National Debt" (BND), which is the minimum amount that the bitcoin system "owes" to the people who are holding bitcoins.   It is between 483 million and 17.2 billion USD.

For example, someone who bought 10 BTC a year ago must have paid close to 600 $/Ƀ, the market price at that time.  Therefore, he must be expecting to get at least 6600 $ if he were to sell or spend those bitcoins -- the 6000 $ that he invested, plus 10%/year of return.   By doing that math for every bitcoin and adding the results we would get the BND.

Unfortunately, there is no way of knowing when any given lump of bitcoin was bought by its current owner.  The purchase may not even have been recorded in the blockchain (e.g. if it was bought in an exchange and left there).  We can only assume that the last purchase of a bitcoin that was mined on day X will (almost) surely have occurred on date X or after that.  Therefore, by looking at the minimum and maximum price in that interval, we can get uper and lower bounds to the expectations of its owner.  

For example, the 25 bitcoins that were mined on 2014-04-01 (when the price was ~450) may have been bought by their present owner(s)  on 2014-06-01 (when the price was at its highest, ~680) or on  2015-01-14 (when the price was at its lowest, ~150).  So, the current owners of those bitcoins, even if they are happy with a 10%/year return on investment, now expect to get from them between 25 × 150 $ and 25 × 680 $ plus the 10%/year.

I may post more details later if I get the time.
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July 04, 2015, 02:39:53 AM

guys wtf...http://www.conspiracyclub.co/2015/07/02/anonymous-warns-u-s-citizens-to-prepare-for-impending-disaster/    just fkn watch this, ive been saying it for a while but to see this and because of crypto i (  and you guys ) have researched money ,its background, its debt and its fuckin true, usa is fkd and they prob take most of us down with them, VERY VERY SOON. Also makes me think why lawsky left his position as  New York State's first Superintendent of Financial Services for a new job as a Bitcoin advisor. http://nypost.com/2015/05/20/ny-financial-watchdog-ben-lawsky-leaving-to-start-firm/  

also please read....http://www.xat.org/xat/worldbank.html  

im stocking up on crypto , dont care about price if its $1 or $1m per btc, as long as ive got btc and other good crypto.
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July 04, 2015, 02:50:02 AM

I just did an estimate of the "Bitcoin National Debt" (BND), which is the minimum amount that the bitcoin system "owes" to the people who are holding bitcoins.   It is between 483 million and 17.2 billion USD.

For example, someone who bought 10 BTC a year ago must have paid close to 600 $/Ƀ, the market price at that time.  Therefore, he must be expecting to get at least 6600 $ if he were to sell or spend those bitcoins -- the 6000 $ that he invested, plus 10%/year of return.   By doing that math for every bitcoin and adding the results we would get the BND.

Unfortunately, there is no way of knowing when any given lump of bitcoin was bought by its current owner.  The purchase may not even have been recorded in the blockchain (e.g. if it was bought in an exchange and left there).  We can only assume that the last purchase of a bitcoin that was mined on day X will (almost) surely have occurred on date X or after that.  Therefore, by looking at the minimum and maximum price in that interval, we can get uper and lower bounds to the expectations of its owner.  

For example, the 25 bitcoins that were mined on 2014-04-01 (when the price was ~450) may have been bought by their present owner(s)  on 2014-06-01 (when the price was at its highest, ~680) or on  2015-01-14 (when the price was at its lowest, ~150).  So, the current owners of those bitcoins, even if they are happy with a 10%/year return on investment, now expect to get from them between 25 × 150 $ and 25 × 680 $ plus the 10%/year.

I may post more details later if I get the time.


Too many variables to draw reliable conclusions concerning cause and effect, but could make for interesting data points in themselves.

"National debt" is wrong, even with tongue firmly in cheek, a debt is a promise to repay... which bitcoin doesn't promise. The exchange rate volatility risk is foisted upon current owners and traders (not rights to future labor and income), and rightly so.

Maybe "bagholder pain index" or BPI can be produced, at least partially, with this data.
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July 04, 2015, 02:58:47 AM

I just did an estimate of the "Bitcoin National Debt" (BND), which is the minimum amount that the bitcoin system "owes" to the people who are holding bitcoins.   It is between 483 million and 17.2 billion USD.

For example, someone who bought 10 BTC a year ago must have paid close to 600 $/Ƀ, the market price at that time.  Therefore, he must be expecting to get at least 6600 $ if he were to sell or spend those bitcoins -- the 6000 $ that he invested, plus 10%/year of return.   By doing that math for every bitcoin and adding the results we would get the BND.

Unfortunately, there is no way of knowing when any given lump of bitcoin was bought by its current owner.  The purchase may not even have been recorded in the blockchain (e.g. if it was bought in an exchange and left there).  We can only assume that the last purchase of a bitcoin that was mined on day X will (almost) surely have occurred on date X or after that.  Therefore, by looking at the minimum and maximum price in that interval, we can get uper and lower bounds to the expectations of its owner.  

For example, the 25 bitcoins that were mined on 2014-04-01 (when the price was ~450) may have been bought by their present owner(s)  on 2014-06-01 (when the price was at its highest, ~680) or on  2015-01-14 (when the price was at its lowest, ~150).  So, the current owners of those bitcoins, even if they are happy with a 10%/year return on investment, now expect to get from them between 25 × 150 $ and 25 × 680 $ plus the 10%/year.

I may post more details later if I get the time.


Too many variables to draw reliable conclusions concerning cause and effect, but could make for interesting data points in themselves.

"National debt" is wrong, even with tongue firmly in cheek, a debt is a promise to repay... which bitcoin doesn't promise. The exchange rate volatility risk is foisted upon current owners and traders (not rights to future labor and income), and rightly so.

Maybe "bagholder pain index" or BPI can be produced, at least partially, with this data.

What happens to "bagholder pain index" when price exceeds $1200 ? Do we reach negative pain? Just like negative interest rates?
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