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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (1.9%)
7/28 - 10 (18.5%)
8/4 - 10 (18.5%)
8/11 - 5 (9.3%)
8/18 - 1 (1.9%)
8/25 - 2 (3.7%)
After August - 25 (46.3%)
Total Voters: 54

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26422311 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Gyrsur
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September 24, 2018, 06:00:45 PM

F**K INCIDENT! this should not happen almost after 10 years of existence!
LFC_Bitcoin
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September 24, 2018, 06:01:16 PM
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No no no!  One end is clenched between the buttocks...





Did you post this on the wrong forum bro?

Wink
kirreev070
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September 24, 2018, 06:08:29 PM

LFC Bitcoin as you fight Joshua and Povetkin?
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September 24, 2018, 06:18:18 PM

LFC Bitcoin as you fight Joshua and Povetkin?

Yeah, we were about 25 rows from the ring. It was a really good night apart from the fact it was raining bedore the fight & Wembley don’t close the roof of the stadium so we got soaking wet Grin

It took ages to get a taxi back to the hotel after too Cheesy

kirreev070
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September 24, 2018, 06:26:42 PM

LFC Bitcoin as you fight Joshua and Povetkin?

Yeah, we were about 25 rows from the ring. It was a really good night apart from the fact it was raining bedore the fight & Wembley don’t close the roof of the stadium so we got soaking wet Grin

It took ages to get a taxi back to the hotel after too Cheesy



Yes, I understand that after such events it is difficult to call a taxi.

And the events are really cool, but I love more than UFC. I'll fly to Las Vegas for a fight.
LFC_Bitcoin
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September 24, 2018, 06:33:56 PM

LFC Bitcoin as you fight Joshua and Povetkin?

Yeah, we were about 25 rows from the ring. It was a really good night apart from the fact it was raining bedore the fight & Wembley don’t close the roof of the stadium so we got soaking wet Grin

It took ages to get a taxi back to the hotel after too Cheesy



Yes, I understand that after such events it is difficult to call a taxi.

And the events are really cool, but I love more than UFC. I'll fly to Las Vegas for a fight.

McGregor vs Khabib will be a REALLY good fight, it’s next weekend 6th October. It’s in Vegas too, I won’t be going to that though Sad

kirreev070
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September 24, 2018, 06:43:48 PM

LFC Bitcoin as you fight Joshua and Povetkin?

Yeah, we were about 25 rows from the ring. It was a really good night apart from the fact it was raining bedore the fight & Wembley don’t close the roof of the stadium so we got soaking wet Grin

It took ages to get a taxi back to the hotel after too Cheesy



Yes, I understand that after such events it is difficult to call a taxi.

And the events are really cool, but I love more than UFC. I'll fly to Las Vegas for a fight.

McGregor vs Khabib will be a REALLY good fight, it’s next weekend 6th October. It’s in Vegas too, I won’t be going to that though Sad



I watched the press conference press and it was very epic, finally McGregor really good rival

El duderino_
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September 24, 2018, 07:14:06 PM

LFC Bitcoin as you fight Joshua and Povetkin?

Yeah, we were about 25 rows from the ring. It was a really good night apart from the fact it was raining bedore the fight & Wembley don’t close the roof of the stadium so we got soaking wet Grin

It took ages to get a taxi back to the hotel after too Cheesy



Yes, I understand that after such events it is difficult to call a taxi.

And the events are really cool, but I love more than UFC. I'll fly to Las Vegas for a fight.

McGregor vs Khabib will be a REALLY good fight, it’s next weekend 6th October. It’s in Vegas too, I won’t be going to that though Sad



Yeah gonna watch iT @ a friends place of Maybe @ the cinema if they plat iT......
Also thuis weekend , watch GLORY  jarray vs groenhart .... and offcourse main flight of the evening Rico verhoeven  its in Amsterdam , pity i can’t go there
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September 24, 2018, 07:34:02 PM


Haha Nice lol
Neef to call a friend  Cool
Hmm... Macrobond? Grin

Brickstring.

Isn't that what those Mongolian dudes use to pull passenger aircraft with their penises ?

Haven't been to Mongolia yet but I know a guy in India that makes and tests all his own brickstrings.

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September 24, 2018, 07:35:56 PM


Haha Nice lol
Neef to call a friend  Cool
Hmm... Macrobond? Grin

Brickstring.

Isn't that what those Mongolian dudes use to pull passenger aircraft with their penises ?

Haven't been to Mongolia yet but I know a guy in India that makes and tests all his own brickstrings.



Get the strap!

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September 24, 2018, 08:16:42 PM

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Haha Nice lol

Neef to call a friend  Cool

brickstream? :-D
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September 24, 2018, 08:24:26 PM

God this thread gets weird when the price is flat.  I almost unblocked gembitz for luls...  Not that bad yet.  If its 6XXX in February maybe.
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September 24, 2018, 08:28:13 PM

Quote

I watched the press conference press and it was very epic, finally McGregor really good rival



btc irl  xD

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September 24, 2018, 09:23:16 PM



I would put odds of perhaps 10% on #2, and 45% on each of #1 and 3.

...

I am not sure whether I should have read ahead before I made my earlier (more pissed off responsive post), and these are very decent points and probability assignments, Majormax... except the I am neither a bull or a bear... comes off as too detached.  

Thanks for the detailed responses !

So we agree on the 10% probabilty (without collusion) !  

I am not sure.

We may have been referring to slightly different events, because you suggested a less than 10% likelihood of your scenario 2, but I was trying to figure out if you could NOT be so absurd as to believe that there is much less than a 10% chance of never reaching an ATH again.  I think that I was criticizing you for your gravitation towards extremes while you are attempting to suggest that you are neutral and objective; however, when, on your own, you came out with additional and more reasonable scenarios, I could see that I had gone a bit too far in my criticism of you, even though I still believe you have a tendency to make outrageous claims and to assign a higher likelihood to the happening of that outrageous claim than is really justifiable - which could cause confusion from the reader.



It is axiomatic that forecasting price movements is difficult, and its tempting to just give up on the calculations and guess, or say 'nobody knows'.  However, we have to have a stab at it somehow.

Actually, if any of us are going to attempt to reasonably participate and invest in this bitcoin game, then we both have to attempt to assign probabilities to events and to allocate our risk accordingly, otherwise we are gambling. 

Of course, we can bet all or nothing of a smaller amount of value on one set of longer term scenarios playing out and then just let the whole matter ride out in a range without getting caught up into thinking about shorter term movements, and that kind of approach could work fairly well too, yet sometimes thinking too much about what is going to happen, either long term or short term can hurt our brains and imagination, too.

We all have our own methods of forecasting. Many posters seem to me to quote some random number for future price, without any indication of how they came up with it.

That is a fair criticism, because even if I disagree with you or how you came up with your numbers, you will usually make a decent attempt at giving reasons for how you arrived at your predictions.

Some post charts, some use a form of (very valid) psycho analysis (JJG being one of the best exponents of that !) delving into the biases and the misconceptions of others. Akin to the Contrarian approach, which has a good track record.

Perhaps, I would rather call it attacking extreme positions, even though I tend to let the bull extremes slide a bit more than the bear extremes.

I have had a career and made a living in trading. My stance is this :

Oh shit!!!!  Now you are going to play the status card?   hahahahahahaha

Every future price outcome has a probability of some sort.... maybe some sort of bell curve. The regularity of a simple bell curve denies all forecasts. Without a real edge, large numbers of trades can only break-even ,  the market-makers/brokers spread becomes the aggregate loss. It becomes simply a market-makers tool for , say, derivatives pricing.

 If you can break the curve down into groups/blocks, and analyze each one individually from some other, different perspective, you may be able to diminish or enhance the likelihood of one part, which then gives a meaningful edge of sorts.

Certainly, I don't fight this kind of thinking because I understand some statistical and probability analysis, but we still have more going on in bitcoin than merely what the aggregate of market traders believe, including 1) a relatively small market that can be opportunistically manipulated to do the opposite  and 2) the likely existence of an exponential growth curve that is more difficult to see on the micro level - and even uncertainties about whether it really exists (while we are caught up in it).  Sure, we might be able to see all of these aspects in retrospect and even capture them in our statistical formulas, but in the short term, each of us also needs to decide and hope we don't get caught up within some kind of statistical anomaly that is going to look normal in retrospect, but does not seem normal while it is happening to us.
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September 24, 2018, 09:38:09 PM

12288

11/09/2018 Dakustaking76 Sad
20/09/2018 Digigami Sad
22/09/2018 Agapios Sad
26/09/2018 itod
30/09/2018 DeathAngel
12/10/2018 IntroVert
15/10/2018 explorer
18/10/2018 Searing
26/10/2018 kurious
09/11/2018 fabiorem
15/11/2018 bitserve
20/11/2018 Globb0
22/11/2018 Last of the V8s
01/12/2018 Alexander_Z
07/03/2019 CoinCube
15/04/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
20/06/2019 bitebits
13/12/2019 nikauforest
10/04/2020 yefi
05/09/2020 samson   
23/06/2021 fortune143 

getting shorter again ........           
El duderino_
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September 24, 2018, 09:39:10 PM

24777

28/08/2018 bitserve Sad
15/10/2018 Yefi
05/11/2018 mikenz
31/12/2018 melman2002
01/01/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
12/02/2019 FractalUniverse
21/04/2019 gentlemand
20/02/2020 romneymoney
18/12/2021 luckygenough56

UPDATE     AND GOOD LUCK    for the few remaining
Searing
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September 24, 2018, 09:42:00 PM

24777

28/08/2018 bitserve Sad
15/10/2018 Yefi
05/11/2018 mikenz
31/12/2018 melman2002
01/01/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
12/02/2019 FractalUniverse
21/04/2019 gentlemand
20/02/2020 romneymoney
18/12/2021 luckygenough56

UPDATE     AND GOOD LUCK    for the few remaining


Kinda looks like the 2019 folk have a shot, me not so much Smiley (Oct 18th) (was in 2013 day I got my KNC Jupiter ASIC miner up) Smiley

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September 24, 2018, 09:44:40 PM



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September 24, 2018, 09:45:24 PM

You likely have your finger on the pulse of the bcash community more than anyone else here. How's everything looking in regard to the possible hardfork?

Magic 8 ball says: "Concentrate and ask again".

In all due seriousness, I really don't have a good read on this yet. I've not even finished my analysis as to which way I would like to see it go.

As for my initial preferences:

My first read is that I'd like to see it tend toward no block size cap (and therefore have max block size be an emergent property of the system, a la BU). I also think I like the idea of re-enabling opcodes that were in the initial release - at least as compared to enabling a new opcode. I don't see the need for CTOR either.

All the above would put me in the SV camp, rather than the ABC camp. Or perhaps BU (hash power vote on each feature), or C0bra (no changes). But as I said, more analysis is required.

I also hold out some hope for a kumbaya moment. However, cross-camp relations don't seem to be getting any better with time.

Given that Bitmain has a split commitment to BCH and BTC, I was fairly comfortable in the hashpower battle going forward with nChain/Ayre/&co. However, with Bitmain finally successful (from all reports) with a 7nm chip, this no longer seems a safe assumption.

I guess I'll need to finish my analysis, pick a side, and get involved with the internal advocacy...

The most reasonable approach would likely be to say "fuck them all," but instead you seem to appreciate the drama and presuming that you are dealing with good actors, within the sense of the all is fair in love and war free market.
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September 24, 2018, 09:56:05 PM
Merited by bones261 (2), El duderino_ (1), bitcoinPsycho (1)

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