For me, our failure to break away from the red long term downtrend line (so far) tells me we are still in a bear market. That’s all I need to know.
I have drawn a similar line but also there is support and some idea of a series of higher lows though the recent low broke below that trend. Also I dont know if that spike up was just noise or something bullish

I think this spike is because of Tether volatility. No timing in your chart so impossible to understand the exact time. İf this movement is because of Tether I don't think this is bullish.
On the other hand, I agree we are still in a bearish trend but the trend is squeezing, the volume diminishes nearly every day and BTC is still above at 21 monthly EMA which is a strong support since more than 4 months.
As a result, big volatility is coming and the BTC will choose a direction for short term. But even the probability of uptrend is higher than the downtrend (according to fundamental analysis), there is no way to predict the direction for short term. Of course for long term I am very very bullish.