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Question: Probability that we've seen the bottom of this bear market:
0% - 5 (3.5%)
1-5% - 4 (2.8%)
6-10% - 2 (1.4%)
11-15% - 1 (0.7%)
16-20% - 3 (2.1%)
21-25% - 2 (1.4%)
26-30% - 2 (1.4%)
31-35% - 1 (0.7%)
36-40% - 5 (3.5%)
41-45% - 2 (1.4%)
46-50% - 7 (4.9%)
51-55% - 9 (6.3%)
56-60% - 2 (1.4%)
61-65% - 3 (2.1%)
66-70% - 9 (6.3%)
71-75% - 9 (6.3%)
76-80% - 10 (6.9%)
81-85% - 13 (9%)
86-90% - 10 (6.9%)
91-95% - 7 (4.9%)
96-99% - 10 (6.9%)
100% - 28 (19.4%)
Total Voters: 144

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21128150 times)
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Last of the V8s
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October 13, 2018, 09:02:29 PM


When in Brussels this is the place too be

Comme chez Soi?
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micgoossens
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October 13, 2018, 09:08:10 PM


When in Brussels this is the place too be

Comme chez Soi?

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But its this one.... never been @ chez soi actualy Maybe one of the weeks
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October 13, 2018, 09:18:53 PM


According to Wekkel, Roach has a Lambo, supposedly.


I meant to refer to micgoossens, my bad. Mobile phones aren't all that....  Roll Eyes
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October 13, 2018, 09:32:21 PM
Last edit: October 13, 2018, 10:39:09 PM by realr0ach


He's a shill for fiat money, but he is right about libertarianism.  Libertarianism in practice is mostly radical individualism.  The problem here is that nature creates predators who hunt in packs, whether it's packs of wolves or ethnocentric nationalists like the Jews or any other random nationality like the Chinese that collude for common interest.  If you're surrounded by colluding actors, adopting radical individualism is the fastest way to kill yourself or be enslaved by them.

There's a reason libertarianism has Jewish roots like (((Ayn Rand))).  Whether you believe the Protocols of the Elders of Zion is written by actual Jews, or a Goyim who just wrote it to describe how Jews operate, it's an exact blueprint of what's happened over the last 100 years.  Look how neatly libertarianism fits in to accomplish those goals of disarming a population so they can be enslaved by external forces:

"6. Political freedom is an idea but not a fact. This idea one must know how to apply whenever it appears necessary with this bait of an idea to attract the masses of the people to one's party for the purpose of crushing another who is in authority. This task is rendered easier if the opponent has himself been infected with the idea of freedom, SO-CALLED LIBERALISM, and, for the sake of an idea, is willing to yield some of his power. It is precisely here that the triumph of our theory appears; the slackened reins of government are immediately, by the law of life, caught up and gathered together by a new hand, because the blind might of the nation cannot for one single day exist without guidance, and the new authority merely fits into the place of the old already weakened by liberalism."


"14. In any State in which there is a bad organization of authority, an impersonality of laws and of the rulers who have lost their personality amid the flood of rights ever multiplying out of liberalism, I find a new right - to attack by the right of the strong, and to scatter to the winds all existing forces of order and regulation, to reconstruct all institutions and to become the sovereign lord of those who have left to us the rights of their power by laying them down voluntarily in their liberalism."

So for any Ron Paul fans, no, America was not founded as a libertarian nation.  America was founded by and for white nationalists, and everything from the immigration and voting laws prove that.  Libertarianism is completely contradictory to how the country was designed to operate.  People were not stupid then and already knew every nation without an ethnocentric majority collapses and isn't a nation in the first place because it has nothing to hold it together.
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October 13, 2018, 09:42:22 PM

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When we see Guy like nouriel roubini and OG banking F***’s..... its just obvious the old dinosaurs can’t keep up with things like BTC etc
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October 13, 2018, 09:58:35 PM

its just obvious the old dinosaurs can’t keep up with things like BTC etc

I see this phrase constantly used by people who understand bitcoin the least.  You can describe bitcoin in many different ways from being just a flat out scheme; even calling it a primitive video game is accurate, but the fact is it's a completely arbitrary construct with nothing actually fundamentally good or sound about it.  It's all magic numbers in other words that can be here today and gone tomorrow and replaced with something else that has slightly different magic numbers.  That's virtually no different than fiat money, especially when you consider transaction validators are always designed to centralize, rendering them identical in centralized administration and control too.

It has no valid Schelling point like silver and gold.  So instead of Andreas Scamanopolous spamming about how shitcoins are going to "disrupt" everything, it's more likely shitcoins will be disrupted by gold and silver instead because they aren't a completely arbitrary construct.  In terms of money, metals are the fixed point in the universe with everything else being some type of fugazi pretender or scam.
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October 13, 2018, 10:01:26 PM
Merited by BTCMILLIONAIRE (1)

You really are a dick sometimes.


Surprised you haven't Ignored him yet, TBH.

Makes this thread much more "sane".
I did for a while, but wanted to give him a chance. But even though I like hopium, his unrealistic one sidedness is old.  Re ignored...


"one sidedness"  Get off of it.

You conclude that you have a more objective and presumably "enlightened" perspectives?  or that you have some kind of charitable attempt at understanding various perspectives, but apparently you are lacking yourself with a bit of tolerance or ability to control your own emotions.

In other words:

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
I think you've got the right idea long-term, and at least some (I don't track all) reasonable price guesses/predictions. But in one of your post you stated that we weren't in a bear market, which from a technical aspect has been wrong for more than half a year now.

Our definitions about what is or is not "technically" a bear market differs.

If you want to define the market based a starting point of the last several months and seeing that the price is going down, then sure that could constitute a bear market - or it could also constitute a correction from a stupendous price rise that started from last year.

You can assert all that you want about 90% of technical experts measure whether in a bear or bull market based on the past quarter or the past two quarters blah blah blah in order to supposedly "objectively" describe what kind of market we are in (whether bear or bull).

I think that it is more appropriate to zoom out a bit in order to attempt to figure out the degree of the correction, and what is actually going on.. .  I have also described the reason(s) for my assertions on several occasions, and frequently  asserted that posters are being too presumptuous to be asserting that we are in a "bear market" even though technically there are ways to describe the market in that "bear market" way... .So anyhow, I stand by my assertion that at this time, it still seems to be more accurate to conceive the market in terms of correction and in terms of ongoing consolidation rather than asserting that we are in a "bear market", which I already asserted merely assumes that bears are in control and that there is a presumption of a better chance prices will go down rather than up, which so far does not seem to be the case and seems to be too much of a presumption, in my humble bumble opinion, which I have a right to assert and to argue until I am blue in the face about it.. without presuming that my framework and thinking is bull biased (and presumptively overly based on hopium rather than really attempting to make a meaningful and objective assessment, just as you are suggesting that you are doing through your assertions about what is supposedly a "technically correct" assessment).   


It just so happens that market cycles in crypto are like those of stocks on crack in the sense that the time scale gets shrunk.

Perhaps that stock comparison could serve as a partial explanation, and also there are ways to consider bitcoin as a possible asset class that has never been experienced before, and the "on crack" analogy does not quite fit.

Yeah of course, you can consider bitcoin in terms of various other traditional market movements and the wisdom of the crowds and the technical experts who have studied these various kinds of stocks for years and years and years, and perhaps that is going work until it doesn't.

And while you could argue that we were in correction territory around 10~15k, we've most certainly been in bear territory at least until very recently where you could argue a flat market (past 2-3 months).

Maybe?  But you can also recognize that the price growth in bitcoin, which also might be considered a bear market, took two years to explode from $250 in late 2015, but the most explosive growth of that was from about $5k to $19,666 in about 2 months, so the correction back down from $19,666 to $5,774 was also about two months (in early February), and so therefore, there has just been a consolidation battle ever since early February that has largely been taking place in the supra $6k arena. 

So there are a variety of ways to frame the matter that can evolve over time, and none of us will be able to see it, exactly while we are in the middle of it, even though each of us will likely come to different presumptions (and some presumptions will end up being more correct than others, and so fucking what if your presumption ends up being more correct, it did not indicate that you actually knew what was going to happen, just because your presumption ended up coming out correct).


The oscillations have been getting much thinner though, so I wouldn't be surprised if we were going to break out either before Christmas, or sometime around Spring. Unlike some others, I find it highly unlikely that we'll bear all the way to 2020ish.

Seems that we are in agreement about the narrowing oscillations perspective and the possibility that an upwards break out could happen a lot sooner than what is otherwise expected.... yet at the same time, I personally am not presuming the breakout to be upwards... believe it or not, even though I continue to accumulate bitcoin, so I would prefer an upwards breakout rather than a downwards breakout, but my preference does not cause me to presume that the next break out is going to be up - even though perhaps I might assign 55% odds to up and 45% odds to down, I hardly ever assign high odds to my inclinations about not really knowing the next direction of the market (rather than attempting to prepare financially and psychologically for either direction).

I'm not sure if you're the overly optimistic perma-bull that some seem to make you out to be (since I haven't tracked this thread enough to say anything) or if you're just using clumsy terms to describe the situation.

Likely you are making an over assessment about me, then because frequently I am not just calling up or making outlandish BTC price predictions.  My tendency is to criticize members who attempt to assign high probabilities to their predictions, and I tend to be more critical of bears and down callers because those folks seem to be either full of shit more often or shill/trolls. 

Regarding being a "perma-bull,"  I would think that most guys (and gal) who invest into bitcoin and genuinely attempt to learn about it on an ongoing basis, while participating in this thread is going to tend towards bullish in their thinking about bitcoin - because on an ongoing basis there are a lot of good things happening in bitcoin, we continue to find out about those great things and the fundamentals of bitcoin remain strong... those kinds of bullish conclusions are likely from being informed about bitcoin rather than being criticized as some kind of delusion of "permanentness."  If some other asset or crypto better than bitcoin comes along, then I don't have any problems to diversify into such other asset, yet if we are informed about what makes bitcoin tick, then we realize that there is nothing even close - and that includes looking at various network effects that build over time, so even if some thing better comes along, that thing is going to either have to take bitcoin's network effects (referring to network effects that are outlined by Trace Mayer) or build itself on a similar level to bitcoin, which certainly takes time to evolve these kinds of development and adoptions.


Either way, nothing wrong with bear and sideways markets, just need a different strategy which arguably makes the whole deal more fun.

I never said that there was anything wrong with bear or sideways.  I just proclaimed that any conclusion that BTC is currently in a "bear market" seem to be either premature or perhaps hopeful rather than based on actual bitcoin dynamics (especially when you sufficiently zoom to contextualized how we got here which will better show where we are).... hahahahahaha   Tongue Tongue
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October 13, 2018, 10:12:29 PM

its just obvious the old dinosaurs can’t keep up with things like BTC etc

I see this phrase constantly used by people who understand bitcoin the least.  You can describe bitcoin in many different ways from being just a flat out scheme; even calling it a primitive video game is accurate, but the fact is it's a completely arbitrary construct with nothing actually fundamentally good or sound about it.  It's all magic numbers in other words that can be here today and gone tomorrow and replaced with something else that has slightly different magic numbers.  That's virtually no different than fiat money, especially when you consider transaction validators are always designed to centralize, rendering them identical in centralized administration and control too.

It has no valid Schelling point like silver and gold.  So instead of Andreas Scamanopolous spamming about how shitcoins are going to "disrupt" everything, it's more likely shitcoins will be disrupted by gold and silver instead because they aren't a completely arbitrary construct.  In terms of money, metals are the fixed point in the universe with everything else being some type of fugazi pretender or scam.

I just don’t understand why you mention silver always...... everything comes in silver this days... i throw silver away as garbage every single , in Maybe a near future coca cola Will be sold in silver cans.... while BTC Will be rising in value.

Wtf is silver ?

Btw Andreas is THE MAN Grin  show Some respect to that man
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October 13, 2018, 10:19:28 PM
Merited by kirreev070 (1)

A little bit of math:

If you bought Ripple for $ 1000 in January, now you would have $ 79.

If you bought Bud Light for $ 1000 in January, drank all the beer and passed the bottles, now you would have $ 79.  Grin Grin Grin

I'm not sure even Bob could pass the bottles, though he could certainly drink all the beer.
Or did you mean return the bottles?

Bob knows how to promise a beer and NOT deliver, must say that much in his favor.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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October 13, 2018, 10:24:16 PM

its just obvious the old dinosaurs can’t keep up with things like BTC etc

I see this phrase constantly used by people who understand bitcoin the least.  You can describe bitcoin in many different ways from being just a flat out scheme; even calling it a primitive video game is accurate, but the fact is it's a completely arbitrary construct with nothing actually fundamentally good or sound about it.  It's all magic numbers in other words that can be here today and gone tomorrow and replaced with something else that has slightly different magic numbers.  That's virtually no different than fiat money, especially when you consider transaction validators are always designed to centralize, rendering them identical in centralized administration and control too.

It has no valid Schelling point like silver and gold.  So instead of Andreas Scamanopolous spamming about how shitcoins are going to "disrupt" everything, it's more likely shitcoins will be disrupted by gold and silver instead because they aren't a completely arbitrary construct.  In terms of money, metals are the fixed point in the universe with everything else being some type of fugazi pretender or scam.

I just don’t understand why you mention silver always...... everything comes in silver this days... i throw silver away as garbage every single , in Maybe a near future coca cola Will be sold in silver cans.... while BTC Will be rising in value.

Wtf is silver ?

Btw Andreas is THE MAN Grin  show Some respect to that man

One of the essential purposes of real money is to remove counterparty risk (which shitcoins do not do, they have built-in middlemen called transaction validators and many other actors that qualify as middlemen or counterparty risk). So if there is any type re-monetization of metals, it's virtually impossible it would ever just be one single metal (gold) since gold alone doesn't remove counterparty risk.  Any type of re-monetization of metals would likely involve both gold, silver, AND copper to establish proper granularity.
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October 13, 2018, 10:28:21 PM


This pattern seems reasonable to me, although I would hope 2021 would have higher prices than they predict. Next year sub $3k most likely. My prediction is based on the last halvings, not sure what those who expect the bull to pick up later this year are doing other than hoping.
https://longforecast.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-2017-2018-2019-btc-to-usd

One should be mindful that the effect of the halving halves each time. We're going from a thud to a tinkle. When the reward is fractions of a bitcoin, who thinks the halving will still be driving price?


Interesting proposition, yefi.

Of course, if the price of BTC doubles every 4 years, then the value of the reward of BTC, in dollars' terms, is the same; however, the reward still becomes a smaller and smaller inflation percentage - even with some presumptions (and actual evidence) of lost coins (presuming the meaning of "lost" in this context as forever lost).


[edited out]

One should be mindful that the effect of the halving halves each time. We're going from a thud to a tinkle. When the reward is fractions of a bitcoin, who thinks the halving will still be driving price?

That's an interesting observation I never considered.

Thinking about it....

I did not steal your word, "interesting," bitserve.  My word choice was merely a coincidence.  I swear.
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October 13, 2018, 10:40:34 PM

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Keep on going sideways but we do not surrender...... (ROACH time to buy Some coins, or part of a coin....)
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October 13, 2018, 10:47:27 PM

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October 13, 2018, 10:49:23 PM

https://i.imgflip.com/2k210c.jpg

(ROACH time to buy Some coins, or part of a coin....)

If bitcoin was a real commodity with a functional price floor instead of a fake commodity with a variable rate price floor this chart would look like a good buy.  The price floor on silver, or rather how far the Jews can attempt to naked short it down before they can't anymore, is mostly determined by the price of oil.  Bitcoin has no such external roadblock to protect it's price floor from thieving Jews and their naked short attacks.  

The price floor on bitcoin is recursive based on it's own demand, so it really has no functional price floor at all.  They can naked short attack it down to nothingness if determined to do so.  So there's nothing really fundamentally bullish or bearish about that chart in other words.  The price of bitcoin is always determind solely by manipulation and never any type of "floors" or fundamentals.  I would prefer nobody sold any of their shitcoins just so they have tons to dump on the Jews at Goldman Sach's face should they attempt to pump it because the banks have clearly been involved in pumping this garbage - everything from ETH, to Bitcoin, to Ripple.
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October 13, 2018, 10:49:39 PM


According to Wekkel, Roach has a Lambo, supposedly.


I meant to refer to micgoossens, my bad. Mobile phones aren't all that....  Roll Eyes

Don’t have a lambo as Well  Tongue
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October 13, 2018, 11:16:02 PM

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October 13, 2018, 11:23:12 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


1 BTC = 13 kg of silver ? (next year it will be 40 kg)
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October 13, 2018, 11:37:37 PM



no jokes, I have heard that Kayne is going to run for president in few years (right after Trump)

Lol http://fortune.com/2018/09/01/kanye-west-president-2024/

This picture is kinda significant
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October 13, 2018, 11:39:00 PM

occupat enim nonnumquam odium generis humani
#Senecaknew
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October 13, 2018, 11:43:19 PM



https://twitter.com/Xentagz/status/1051170248144113664
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