Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

maths fail^ nosey fail^

What do you believe the math to be if you assert that you would have an extra $20 to $50 million to spend on projects (without batting an eye), if BTC price were to go to $100k?

I said 600BTC because that gives a bit of a cushion.

If a guy or gal only had 500 BTC, then s/he would only have $50 million in the event that BTC prices were to reach $100k... That would leave absolutely no cushion to feel comfortable doling out $50million on any kind of project.

You have better approximation numbers than me?  fucktwat?

[1686143435]

1686143435

[1686143435]

1686143435

[Last of the V8s]

You people are so mean.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffkauflin/2018/12/05/cryptopia-in-crisis-billionaire-joe-lubins-ethereum-experiment-is-a-mess-how-long-will-he-prop-it-up/
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/2018/12/04/ethereum-co-founder-joe-lubin-sounds-the-alarm-and-refocuses-consensys-in-expansive-employee-letter/
someone call a priest

For straight up assets on a chain (tokens) this new Ravencoin thing looks like it can replace it.

I'm not an user of ETH or any alts really to tell you the truth but the asset layer is what ETH is all about and there's something better, cheaper and much easier to use around nowadays. Might take a bit to mature but it's coming and ETH is going...

Sssssssssh, don't tell 'em about ravencoin, (Pike).
No it has caught the imagination of some fairly bitcoiny people because of fair launch and mining algo (possibly some other thing positive i can't recall), but I bet 'maximalists' are saying 'we can just add tokens if they're really needed'.

[kingcolex]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffkauflin/2018/12/05/cryptopia-in-crisis-billionaire-joe-lubins-ethereum-experiment-is-a-mess-how-long-will-he-prop-it-up/
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/2018/12/04/ethereum-co-founder-joe-lubin-sounds-the-alarm-and-refocuses-consensys-in-expansive-employee-letter/
someone call a priest

For straight up assets on a chain (tokens) this new Ravencoin thing looks like it can replace it.

I'm not an user of ETH or any alts really to tell you the truth but the asset layer is what ETH is all about and there's something better, cheaper and much easier to use around nowadays. Might take a bit to mature but it's coming and ETH is going...

You know a scamcoin like ETH is in trouble when:

a) after years of development, still the use case and business case can't be found by anyone, including Vitalik
b) zero adoption for said use case, because solution still looking for a problem that doesn't exist, and
c) something is already coming along deemed as "better than" ETH (which is a joke in and of itself)

   

Eh I think Eth has a use and will pull out on second.

[JayJuanGee]

I can already live off of my crypto earnings comfortably. The type of profits I suggested would be in a range where I could dump some 20~50m into the development of a game without even flinching about potentially never making it back.

That's a lot of BTC you're holding.

That is what I was thinking too...

Seems a bit more than the average WO participant, or even the elite end of the WO participants...

I am thinking that seems to be in the 600BTC plus arena to be able to consider that $20 to $50 million would be a drop in the bucket, in the event that BTC went to the $100k arena.

I wouldn't consider throwing 20-50m in a non-profitable hobby unless I have at least 10 times the amount so.... maybe a couple thousands of BTC (@$100K) to be comfortable with that "frivolous" spending.

Of course that would be amongst the most prudent of approaches, but of course levels of prudence is going to vary, and I think that was the reason that I gave a ballpark figure of 600BTC, because in the 600BTC scenario, there still is a $10million cushion, but we know how BTC acts, sometimes, so I understand that a $10million cushion could turn into a $1million cushion, which could become a bit stressfull for normal peeps.. so of course having a bit more cushion would be preferable to lessen both possible psychological issues and fiscal issues.

[Globb0]

You can buy a THC type syrup

Is that a get you high thing? is it cheaper or more expensive than green ?

[gentlemand]

Eh I think Eth has a use and will pull out on second.

I think it's guaranteed to be superseded. It's a prototype and will remain so. Someone will come up with something that does everything it claims to do and much more and it'll simply... work.

There won't be weird languages to learn, holes in the contracts, nodes that are major undertaking to sync and a chain that keeps bloating.

It's not here yet, but it will be. However it's going to require multiple actual uses for the idea of 'blockchain' for something with improved functionality to get traction and expose ETH as wheezing poo.

At the same time I don't think it's going to stop the zombies trading ETH for a long arse time yet. No one is yet to care about actual uses for things like this. If Ripple can be older than BTC and still have achieved precisely fuck all and still be worth what it is, we have a long way to go before sense reigns.

[empowering]

Cruel games...

A tease...

Don't tease the doooooooooooooooooooom

[jojo69]

easy now

save something for Thursday

[HairyMaclairy]

I don’t know about you but it’s defintely Thursday here. 

[JayJuanGee]

@fintechfrank https://twitter.com/fintechfrank/status/1070405218230259712

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce on crypto ETF: "Don't hold your breath"

It could come tomorrow or in 20 years, she said.

"I do caution people to not live or die on when a crypto or bitcoin ETF gets approved."

"You all know that I am working on trying to convince my colleagues to have a bit more of an open mind when it comes to [crypto]."

"I am not as charming as some other people," she added.

Institutionalization will happen, she concluded.

Advice for crypto firms: "get good regulatory advice.. there are a lot of landmines...[and] we live in a society that has a lot of old securities laws...You could have the best intensions [sic]in the world and you could trip on something that you didn't mean to trip on."

Peirce said this during a fireside chat at a cryptocurrency conference in Washington D.C.

I think my peepee just shrank a little.

There seems to be a decent point in all of this, which is who gives a shit about an ETF?

Of course, an ETF is going to bring greater financialization to BTC and likely overall be bullish on bitcoin's short term future and likely long term future, too... but it is no where near to necessary for bitcoin to remain a very good investment with strong fundamentals.

[HairyMaclairy]

My international wire with Bitstamp cleared in 2.5 business days.

5 stars would deposit again.

[El duderino_]

easy now

save something for Thursday

Thought thursday was STFU .....

[JayJuanGee]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffkauflin/2018/12/05/cryptopia-in-crisis-billionaire-joe-lubins-ethereum-experiment-is-a-mess-how-long-will-he-prop-it-up/
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/2018/12/04/ethereum-co-founder-joe-lubin-sounds-the-alarm-and-refocuses-consensys-in-expansive-employee-letter/
someone call a priest

For straight up assets on a chain (tokens) this new Ravencoin thing looks like it can replace it.

I'm not an user of ETH or any alts really to tell you the truth but the asset layer is what ETH is all about and there's something better, cheaper and much easier to use around nowadays. Might take a bit to mature but it's coming and ETH is going...

You know a scamcoin like ETH is in trouble when:

a) after years of development, still the use case and business case can't be found by anyone, including Vitalik
b) zero adoption for said use case, because solution still looking for a problem that doesn't exist, and
c) something is already coming along deemed as "better than" ETH (which is a joke in and of itself)

   

Huh?  Isn't facilitating abilities to launch scam coins a use case?  Fuck....

We have seen billions of dollars raised through that scam coin, ETH enabled (facilitated), so even though I am no fan of ETH and its bullshit, there seems to be a use case, no?

[kingcolex]

Holy fuck I just spent $30 at Arby's I can't this shit with Bitcoin where it's at, all my extra cash is to buy while it's low.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

maths fail^ nosey fail^

What do you believe the math to be if you assert that you would have an extra $20 to $50 million to spend on projects (without batting an eye), if BTC price were to go to $100k?

I said 600BTC because that gives a bit of a cushion.

If a guy or gal only had 500 BTC, then s/he would only have $50 million in the event that BTC prices were to reach $100k... That would leave absolutely no cushion to feel comfortable doling out $50million on any kind of project.

You have better approximation numbers than me?  fucktwat?

Your Math is actually more than sensible on this one, given the assumption that $100k is the target.

Keep in mind that people could be satisfied with a relatively frugal lifestyle (not living in an insanely huge mansion, while still having cash for all the high-end nerd toys one would want; the most outrageous TVs are barely 10k, desktop computers at best half etc.). Not everyone needs lambos, yachts, planes or whatever the fuck rich people tend to get.

Developing a game that shits on the crappy triple A titles takes a very long time as well. And the full sum isn't going to be spent in one go, but over half a decade as a lower end estimate. That gives some wiggle room. There are also ways to be more economical about this if you're not in a rush to release a title to generate revenue. You can start small, lay a very strong foundation, then scale up with the years as necessary.


What I'm saying is, is that while the 600 BTC number is a very good guess (as the 10m difference to the higher end estimate is enough to live lavishly for the rest of one's life) it can be both significantly lower or higher.

AI is developing at a crazy speed as well with one crucial example being the ability of taking low resolution images and having an AI upscale it to high-resolution given enough training data (textures are one of the biggest cost factors in this industry). There also has been an AI that turned video material into a functioning game engine. Basically, the 20-50m estimate that is true for today's titles might very well be cut down to a fraction before Bitcoin hits 100k or whatever price.

I may be well off, but I'm sure others have much more than me. I certainly can't move the BTC/USD market, so I'm lightyears away from being a whale.


Edit: Also. Since I'd be the one funding it there would be no CEO twat sponging up all the money, which would probably cut out a dozen millions or so lmao.

[cAPSLOCK]

Eh I think Eth has a use and will pull out on second.

I think it's guaranteed to be superseded. It's a prototype and will remain so. Someone will come up with something that does everything it claims to do and much more and it'll simply... work.

There won't be weird languages to learn, holes in the contracts, nodes that are major undertaking to sync and a chain that keeps bloating.

It's not here yet, but it will be. However it's going to require multiple actual uses for the idea of 'blockchain' for something with improved functionality to get traction and expose ETH as wheezing poo.

At the same time I don't think it's going to stop the zombies trading ETH for a long arse time yet. No one is yet to care about actual uses for things like this. If Ripple can be older than BTC and still have achieved precisely fuck all and still be worth what it is, we have a long way to go before sense reigns.

Most likely it will be a Layer 2 BTC project.

Eventually most blockchains will be attacked and destroyed. Only the top chain of each hashing algorithm has any chance of survival, and even most of those will fall.

[Last of the V8s]

I deleted an anti-JJG broadcast somewhere up there^ for being slightly wrong, and slightly meh anyway.

maths fail^ nosey fail^

fucktwat?

half agree. in my defense i fell victim to a foul tesla troll earlier on, and am still stunned

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I don’t know about you but it’s defintely Thursday here. 

Damnit. Still have a full seven hours, and ten some-odd minutes CST here.

Just over an hour to go here....

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

I can already live off of my crypto earnings comfortably. The type of profits I suggested would be in a range where I could dump some 20~50m into the development of a game without even flinching about potentially never making it back.

That's a lot of BTC you're holding.

That is what I was thinking too...

Seems a bit more than the average WO participant, or even the elite end of the WO participants...

I am thinking that seems to be in the 600BTC plus arena to be able to consider that $20 to $50 million would be a drop in the bucket, in the event that BTC went to the $100k arena.

I wouldn't consider throwing 20-50m in a non-profitable hobby unless I have at least 10 times the amount so.... maybe a couple thousands of BTC (@$100K) to be comfortable with that "frivolous" spending.

I'd be flabbergasted if that hobby didn't turn out immensely profitable. I just wouldn't do it for the money and would be happy with just creating something that I could enjoy for numerous years of my life.

I also want to nudge it in a direction that fosters a try-harding mentality in casuals that is completely absent in today's instant gratification mainstream games to hopefully create a culture of non-complacent people that try to go out and do something that others would look at in awe. Without them noticing what is happening to them as they play (which is what happened to me as I spent around a decade full-time playing a single game).

Basically, a game that brainwashes people in doing something with their lives instead of buying a fucking iPhone every year with all of their savings.

[JayJuanGee]

maths fail^ nosey fail^

What do you believe the math to be if you assert that you would have an extra $20 to $50 million to spend on projects (without batting an eye), if BTC price were to go to $100k?

I said 600BTC because that gives a bit of a cushion.

If a guy or gal only had 500 BTC, then s/he would only have $50 million in the event that BTC prices were to reach $100k... That would leave absolutely no cushion to feel comfortable doling out $50million on any kind of project.

You have better approximation numbers than me?  fucktwat?

Your Math is actually more than sensible on this one, given the assumption that $100k is the target.

Keep in mind that people could be satisfied with a relatively frugal lifestyle (not living in an insanely huge mansion, while still having cash for all the high-end nerd toys one would want; the most outrageous TVs are barely 10k, desktop computers at best half etc.). Not everyone needs lambos, yachts, planes or whatever the fuck rich people tend to get.

Developing a game that shits on the crappy triple A titles takes a very long time as well. And the full sum isn't going to be spent in one go, but over half a decade as a lower end estimate. That gives some wiggle room. There are also ways to be more economical about this if you're not in a rush to release a title to generate revenue. You can start small, lay a very strong foundation, then scale up with the years as necessary.


What I'm saying is, is that while the 600 BTC number is a very good guess (as the 10m difference to the higher end estimate is enough to live lavishly for the rest of one's life) it can be both significantly lower or higher.

AI is developing at a crazy speed as well with one crucial example being the ability of taking low resolution images and having an AI upscale it to high-resolution given enough training data (textures are one of the biggest cost factors in this industry). There also has been an AI that turned video material into a functioning game engine. Basically, the 20-50m estimate that is true for today's titles might very well be cut down to a fraction before Bitcoin hits 100k or whatever price.

I may be well off, but I'm sure others have much more than me. I certainly can't move the BTC/USD market, so I'm lightyears away from being a whale.

Well, you are the one who volunteered the $20million to $50 million "throw away money", so it seemed quite topical to explore the extent to which that might be reasonable for anyone to pull off and what kind of cushion anyone might consider to be prudent in order to make such a thing work decently and without too much personal psychological or fiscal stress.  I doubt that you need to provide additional personal particulars in order to appreciate that you have decently thought through some of the parameters including a kind of moving trajectory.. and surely, I understand as well that you were throwing $20 to $50million out there as a ballpark thinking point... and of course, peeps could draw from other sources, too, but yeah, if the funds are mostly coming from BTC appreciation.. then gosh 600 BTC does seem to be within a kind of minimum arena (for a kind of in the ball park of realistic frugality).