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Question: 1/24 Closing Price:
<$32,000 - 19 (22.6%)
$32,000-$33,000 - 8 (9.5%)
$33,000-$34,000 - 2 (2.4%)
$34,000-$35,000 - 8 (9.5%)
$35,000-$36,000 - 11 (13.1%)
$36,000-$37,000 - 7 (8.3%)
$37,000-$38,000 - 7 (8.3%)
$38,000-$39,000 - 1 (1.2%)
$39,000-$40,000 - 4 (4.8%)
$40,000-$41,000 - 2 (2.4%)
$41,000-$42,000 - 0 (0%)
>$42,000 - 15 (17.9%)
Total Voters: 84

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25071812 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13 users deleted.)
serveria.com
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December 21, 2018, 09:50:01 PM


meh
/me/
informal
exclamation
exclamation: meh

    1.
    expressing a lack of interest or enthusiasm.
    "Meh. I'm not impressed so far"

adjective
adjective: meh

    1.
    uninspiring; unexceptional.
    "a lot of his movies are … meh"

bitcoin could suddenly stop working when they remove openssl on the 23rd :\ next 48hrs are crucial gentlemen * meh

https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/pull/14955

Wow scary.... I almost shit my pants.  Grin The answer is no, you won't be able to rebuy at $1500 still. Your FUD doesn't work, it's futile, let go. Go bitcoin! Weeeee!   Cool
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Last of the V8s
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December 21, 2018, 09:51:33 PM


that there is some funny shit
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December 21, 2018, 09:53:07 PM
Last edit: December 21, 2018, 10:04:49 PM by Toxic2040

Testing the tenkan san on the 4 hour chart. Support is very thin for the next 24 hours it appears. I can see a draw down towards the inverse bat signal happening after this weekend. However, support continues to build in the $3.65k range.
Likely to trade in a narrowing channel with lighter volumes until after the holidays. #dyor

4h


#stronghands2019

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December 21, 2018, 09:54:18 PM



I haven’t bothered doing the math, but RSI will always revert to the mean.  So a bullish divergence is just reversion to the mean?
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December 21, 2018, 09:59:34 PM

BTCMILLIONAIRE
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December 21, 2018, 10:06:11 PM

Does she have brains? If I saw her sit down at a desk and solve a quadratic equation I would find her worthy to marry and mate with.
+1 WOsMerit
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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December 21, 2018, 10:09:51 PM

Dumperino to ~3771 now official. We have broken past the 3923 support. Man am I glad I got out at 4052. If this stretches out we got a cup and handle situation. I am in at ~3771



Really hope my cup^3 hypothesis actually comes true. Cheesy But I wouldn't bet on it. I say we bump into the ~4410 resistance and down again from there.

You got out of your 80x at $4,052?  

I am thinking that you must have made a killing on that one, and surely the kind of "accidental" trade that could fund a whole fucking hell of a lot of losses, depending on how much you are "gambling" each time that you hedge.

To some extent you are striking me as a bit of a high risk taker, yet if you pull some of your profits out of your trading fund (such as what you made in the "accidental" 80x long play), then you could still be considerably profitable (beating the averages) on a lot of short-term plays.  One of the problems with shorter-term players seems to be that they tend to get greedy, and don't strategically pull enough off of the table and keep it off the table, so they end up losing their previous profits in some subsequent play because they erroneously presume that they can beat the market with their presumptively superior wits.

I would agree with you 100%. And I would not really call myself risky. I don't usually fomo like this. But big amounts change a person. And I can call myself lucky that it did not burn me on my ass.

Do you have a practice of pulling some of your profits out of your "trading" funds? 

So, for example, let's say that you have a trading portfolio of about 5 BTC, and you bet about 20% of your trading portfolio on one bet, which ended up being the "accidental" 80x that would amount to 1 bitcoin at $3,400 and then you pulled closed such bet at $4,050. That would be almost  $52,000 ($650X80)  in profits, minus fees - which could also be considered to be about 13.44 bitcoins ($52,000/$3,870), at current prices.

Under the scenario that I outline, you could take more than half of your profits off of the table and still be doubling your trading stash.  You can still be prudent with your trading stash and make a lot of money from it because it has more than doubled.

Of course, your circumstances could be somewhat different, depending on the amount of your initial trading stash that you bet, and the smaller the amount, let's say for example that you only bet 5% of your trading stash (which would be only .25 BTC), then your profits would be only 1/4 of the amounts that I already outlined, yet I still think that you could take a decent amount of those profits off of the table (let's say 50%-ish based on the extraordinary amounts of profits) and still be in a real decent place, trading stash wise, without engaging in too much gambling with your profits, while preserving your principle and adding to it in various ways.

That is what I mean by "prudent" versus "risky" and I am kind of questioning the extent to which you may be leaning towards the risky side with your current perspective (which is a personality trait that can be refined with practice and thought).
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December 21, 2018, 10:13:05 PM

Buttcoin can't stay above 4k for more than a day, SAD!!

Are you a "glass half empty" kind of a dweeb?

https://i.pinimg.com/236x/7f/3b/d6/7f3bd6d7ec70f0a00aa98bf442fce675--font-design-design-art.jpg

your way of being in BTC is kinda sad, think sometimes its best for you to sell your holdings and invest in something else ..... if your invested in BTC...

You are referring to the pessimism of rafandal?
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December 21, 2018, 10:22:36 PM

Buttcoin can't stay above 4k for more than a day, SAD!!

Are you a "glass half empty" kind of a dweeb?

https://i.pinimg.com/236x/7f/3b/d6/7f3bd6d7ec70f0a00aa98bf442fce675--font-design-design-art.jpg

your way of being in BTC is kinda sad, think sometimes its best for you to sell your holdings and invest in something else ..... if your invested in BTC...

You are referring to the pessimism of rafandal?

Offcourse
I NEVER question youre devotion into BTC
That you are a coiner is very obvious Wink
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December 21, 2018, 10:25:40 PM

bitcoin will remain at 4000 for the year, but top-10 altcoins will grow due to oversold, BCH especially. In 2015, bitcoin was 200 all year, and litecoin grew from 1.3 to 8
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December 21, 2018, 10:44:40 PM

Buttcoin can't stay above 4k for more than a day, SAD!!

Are you a "glass half empty" kind of a dweeb?

https://i.pinimg.com/236x/7f/3b/d6/7f3bd6d7ec70f0a00aa98bf442fce675--font-design-design-art.jpg

your way of being in BTC is kinda sad, think sometimes its best for you to sell your holdings and invest in something else ..... if your invested in BTC...

You are referring to the pessimism of rafandal?

Offcourse
I NEVER question youre devotion into BTC
That you are a coiner is very obvious Wink

I try....  Wink       Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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December 21, 2018, 10:46:06 PM

bitcoin will remain at 4000 for the year, but top-10 altcoins will grow due to oversold, BCH especially. In 2015, bitcoin was 200 all year, and litecoin grew from 1.3 to 8


We are not in 2015 anymore, Dorothy. 
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December 21, 2018, 10:49:22 PM

bitcoin will remain at 4000 for the year, but top-10 altcoins will grow due to oversold, BCH especially. In 2015, bitcoin was 200 all year, and litecoin grew from 1.3 to 8

It's rather easy to go from sod all to less sod all. It's a bit more of an ask beyond that.

All the same I'm very interested to see what alts get up to if BTC goes to sleep.
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December 21, 2018, 10:50:16 PM

bitcoin will remain at 4000 for the year, but top-10 altcoins will grow due to oversold, BCH especially. In 2015, bitcoin was 200 all year, and litecoin grew from 1.3 to 8


We are not in 2015 anymore, Dorothy. 
Sure, but markets without obvious fundamentals trade the same. The absolute numbers are irrelevant here.
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Yo mama


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December 21, 2018, 11:02:23 PM

Dumperino to ~3771 now official. We have broken past the 3923 support. Man am I glad I got out at 4052. If this stretches out we got a cup and handle situation. I am in at ~3771



Really hope my cup^3 hypothesis actually comes true. Cheesy But I wouldn't bet on it. I say we bump into the ~4410 resistance and down again from there.

You got out of your 80x at $4,052?  

I am thinking that you must have made a killing on that one, and surely the kind of "accidental" trade that could fund a whole fucking hell of a lot of losses, depending on how much you are "gambling" each time that you hedge.

To some extent you are striking me as a bit of a high risk taker, yet if you pull some of your profits out of your trading fund (such as what you made in the "accidental" 80x long play), then you could still be considerably profitable (beating the averages) on a lot of short-term plays.  One of the problems with shorter-term players seems to be that they tend to get greedy, and don't strategically pull enough off of the table and keep it off the table, so they end up losing their previous profits in some subsequent play because they erroneously presume that they can beat the market with their presumptively superior wits.

I would agree with you 100%. And I would not really call myself risky. I don't usually fomo like this. But big amounts change a person. And I can call myself lucky that it did not burn me on my ass.

Do you have a practice of pulling some of your profits out of your "trading" funds? 

So, for example, let's say that you have a trading portfolio of about 5 BTC, and you bet about 20% of your trading portfolio on one bet, which ended up being the "accidental" 80x that would amount to 1 bitcoin at $3,400 and then you pulled closed such bet at $4,050. That would be almost  $52,000 ($650X80)  in profits, minus fees - which could also be considered to be about 13.44 bitcoins ($52,000/$3,870), at current prices.

Under the scenario that I outline, you could take more than half of your profits off of the table and still be doubling your trading stash.  You can still be prudent with your trading stash and make a lot of money from it because it has more than doubled.

Of course, your circumstances could be somewhat different, depending on the amount of your initial trading stash that you bet, and the smaller the amount, let's say for example that you only bet 5% of your trading stash (which would be only .25 BTC), then your profits would be only 1/4 of the amounts that I already outlined, yet I still think that you could take a decent amount of those profits off of the table (let's say 50%-ish based on the extraordinary amounts of profits) and still be in a real decent place, trading stash wise, without engaging in too much gambling with your profits, while preserving your principle and adding to it in various ways.

That is what I mean by "prudent" versus "risky" and I am kind of questioning the extent to which you may be leaning towards the risky side with your current perspective (which is a personality trait that can be refined with practice and thought).


Yes I have several portfolios. Trading, hodling, tether (when bear market, I may secure a part or everything, depending on how bad the market is crashing. But usually its hodl). Anything beyond a certain amount goes from trading into my hodl stash.
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December 21, 2018, 11:13:56 PM

bitcoin will remain at 4000 for the year, but top-10 altcoins will grow due to oversold, BCH especially. In 2015, bitcoin was 200 all year, and litecoin grew from 1.3 to 8


We are not in 2015 anymore, Dorothy.  
Sure, but markets without obvious fundamentals trade the same. The absolute numbers are irrelevant here.

Do you believe that fundamentals of BTC and market dynamics are similar to early 2015?  Do you believe that charts match up, and so we are going to experience similar dynamics in early 2019 as we saw in early 2015?  

Sure, it is possible, but how much weight are you going to give to such a scenario?  How much you going to bet on such a scenario to play out?  Personally, I would not bet much on that, and even betting anywhere close to 50% on such a scenario playing out seems quite imprudent to me, but hey, to each their own.

By the way, I am not suggesting that Bitcoin does not have a fairly heavy burden to get back above $6k and to stay above $6k, I am just questioning the likelihood of painting either doom and gloom scenarios or flat price scenarios for BTC that drag out a long time based on prior charts and attempting to place a lot of credence in previous patterns.
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December 21, 2018, 11:15:08 PM

Hey fuck you Brave

https://twitter.com/tomscott/status/1076160882873380870
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December 21, 2018, 11:17:51 PM

It sure looks the same to me Jay.

Last of the V8s
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December 21, 2018, 11:21:44 PM

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December 21, 2018, 11:22:34 PM

bitcoin will remain at 4000 for the year, but top-10 altcoins will grow due to oversold, BCH especially. In 2015, bitcoin was 200 all year, and litecoin grew from 1.3 to 8


We are not in 2015 anymore, Dorothy.  
Sure, but markets without obvious fundamentals trade the same. The absolute numbers are irrelevant here.

Do you believe that fundamentals of BTC and market dynamics are similar to early 2015?  Do you believe that charts match up, and so we are going to experience similar dynamics in early 2019 as we saw in early 2015?  

Sure, it is possible, but how much weight are you going to give to such a scenario?  How much you going to bet on such a scenario to play out?  Personally, I would not bet much on that, and even betting anywhere close to 50% on such a scenario playing out seems quite imprudent to me, but hey, to each their own.

By the way, I am not suggesting that Bitcoin does not have a fairly heavy burden to get back above $6k and to stay above $6k, I am just questioning the likelihood of painting either doom and gloom scenarios or flat price scenarios for BTC that drag out a long time based on prior charts and attempting to place a lot of credence in previous patterns.
Fundamentals of BTC can not be properly quantified right now, hence a market without "obvious" fundamentals.

In stocks you can calculate (or just read) almost all the data you need to project revenue and profits and thus a band for your ROI.
With crypto this is completely and utterly impossible right now. Which is also why the market is doing its usual technicals driven ups and downs with no obvious walls given by fundamental analysis.
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