Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[kenzawak]

CME Futures closing today.
Reminder, prices tend to go crazy (up or down) in the hours surrounding expirations.

[1714018262]

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[1714018262]

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[Torque]

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

I would say that quote is bollocks.

How many people across the world own a piece of gold jewellery or a gold coin?

Gold is far more decentralised than bitcoin (mining and coin distribution is far from decentralised)

The quote is talking about potentials. You are talking about what "is". Gold has a history spanning millennia. Hence your argument doesn't make sense until at least an isomorphically equal amount of time has passed during which Bitcoin could have distributed. That amount of time will be lower than for gold due to the amount of people alive now vs the amount of people alive in the past as well as developments in infrastructure (hence isomorphic).

But as is it doesn't make sense to compare the level of current decentralization of gold vs Bitcoin.

[kenzawak]

The year in numbers :

https://breakermag.com/its-not-all-about-price-cryptos-year-in-numbers/

[DeathAngel]

Would be good to break $4,000 again & consolidate there. $3000’s seem very low & surely whales are accumulating here. These are cheap coins if you have lots of spare fiat.

[El duderino_]

Spike Spike spiiiiiiike it UP

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Watching the silver price slowly fall back to $6 over the next decade will be even worse.

From a TA point of view, $10 looks like a very strong support and potential bounce. But, r0ach is always talking about costs of production and oil as the main factor. Oil price is gonna dump really hard over the next couple of decades. As much as electrical cars increase their market share the more affected will be the demand of oil. Main demand right now is coming from cars all over the world. Another interesting side effect is that long distance flights will become even cheaper.

I'm sorry.

Where do you think all this electricity is going to come from?

While there will certainly be plenty of volatility in the energy sector, even "dumps", broadly speaking oil will never, ever, be cheaper in real terms.

Even serious industry paid annalists acknowledge that we are past peak EROI, and there is simply no replacement for the energy density of fossil fuels.

Does that analysis factor in fusion eventually becoming economically viable or not?

[byebyehi]

Bitcoin Cash Block Sizes Average Less Than 100 KB, Defeating The Point Of Its Creation 

https://cryptoiq.co/bitcoin-cash-block-sizes-average-less-than-100-kb-defeating-the-point-of-its-creation/

Don't be stupid , its planned for the future.  BCH has only been around for about a year.

[Toxic2040]

Well hello you..

Bounced hard off resistance at the $4.1k level. The consolidation at the mid point of the previous rally might indicate an attempt to climb another rung in the ladder upwards.
1h


4h



In the longer term things look fairly exciting. My most pessimistic projections indicate bitcoin should at least double in fiat price over the next 12 months or so. Remember, remember the 5th of November.
W

#stronghands2019

[bitserve]

Watching the silver price slowly fall back to $6 over the next decade will be even worse.

From a TA point of view, $10 looks like a very strong support and potential bounce. But, r0ach is always talking about costs of production and oil as the main factor. Oil price is gonna dump really hard over the next couple of decades. As much as electrical cars increase their market share the more affected will be the demand of oil. Main demand right now is coming from cars all over the world. Another interesting side effect is that long distance flights will become even cheaper.

I'm sorry.

Where do you think all this electricity is going to come from?

While there will certainly be plenty of volatility in the energy sector, even "dumps", broadly speaking oil will never, ever, be cheaper in real terms.

Even serious industry paid annalists acknowledge that we are past peak EROI, and there is simply no replacement for the energy density of fossil fuels.

Well, I may be wrong, but this is the reasoning behind my thinking/prediction:

Yes, energy density of fossil fuels is the best and that is why it was so hard to replace for "mobile machines". Flights don't have any substitute for that very same reason. But flights are not the main demand of oil, cars are.

Everything points out that we will see an increase in market share of electric cars during the next next years/decades. I don't think it is unreasonable that half the cars would be electric in two decades.

That would mean a huge decrease in demand for oil.

Where do the electricity came from to power all those cars? Well, I also expect an increase of the alternate power sources now that ie photoelectric has become positive ROI.
Also nuclear is still rocking and with the new better and safer designs maybe they would start building much more new ones if the need arise? Not sure about that one to be honest.

Also it doesn't really need for something as huge as a halving of oil dependance from cars to affect the price hard. Since many decades to now that demand has been increasing yet the price has remained more or less constant (hugely volatile though) or even decreased. When it not only stops growing (the demand) but decrease significantly I would guess it's impact on price would be multiplied.

Also, oil producers seeing that in the future the demand would keep decreasing would be more eager to monetise their reserves faster than others. Again, with the effect of lowering price.

As I said, I might be wrong, but that is my reasoning and makes sense to me.

P.S.: Yeah, I haven't included fusion because it has been so long they said it was near that I don't believe it anymore.

[criptix]

Watching the silver price slowly fall back to $6 over the next decade will be even worse.

From a TA point of view, $10 looks like a very strong support and potential bounce. But, r0ach is always talking about costs of production and oil as the main factor. Oil price is gonna dump really hard over the next couple of decades. As much as electrical cars increase their market share the more affected will be the demand of oil. Main demand right now is coming from cars all over the world. Another interesting side effect is that long distance flights will become even cheaper.

I'm sorry.

Where do you think all this electricity is going to come from?

While there will certainly be plenty of volatility in the energy sector, even "dumps", broadly speaking oil will never, ever, be cheaper in real terms.

Even serious industry paid annalists acknowledge that we are past peak EROI, and there is simply no replacement for the energy density of fossil fuels.

Well, I may be wrong, but this is the reasoning behind my thinking/prediction:

Yes, energy density of fossil fuels is the best and that is why it was so hard to replace for "mobile machines". Flights don't have any substitute for that very same reason. But flights are not the main demand of oil, cars are.

Everything points out that we will see an increase in market share of electric cars during the next next years/decades. I don't think it is unreasonable that half the cars would be electric in two decades.

That would mean a huge decrease in demand for oil.

Where do the electricity came from to power all those cars? Well, I also expect an increase of the alternate power sources now that ie photoelectric has become positive ROI.
Also nuclear is still rocking and with the new safer designs maybe they would start building much more new ones if the need arise? Not sure about that one to be honest.

Also it doesn't really need for something as huge as a halving of oil dependance from cars to affect the price hard. Since many decades to now that demand has been increasing yet the price has remained more or less constant (hugely volatile though) or even decreased. When it not only stops growing (the demand) but decrease significantly I would guess it's impact on price would be multiplied.

Also, oil producers seeing that in the future the demand would keep decreasing would be more eager to monetise their reserves faster than others. Again, with the effect of lowering price.

As I said, I might be wrong, but that is my reasoning and makes sense to me.

P.S.: Yeah, I haven't included fusion because it has been so long they said it was near that I don't believe it anymore.

Add to it that cheap oil is a monopoly owned by a handful of people who can de- and increase production at will.

Its quite similiar to the artificial scarcity of the diamond market which de beers controls.


Ps: Fusion would solve every energy problem of humanity for a long time.
But for the short and midterm we still have PV where prototypes already reach 35% efficiency and gen 3 and 4 nuclear reactors.
Gen 5 are already in research.

Oil is just the cheapest form of energy for now, definitely not the best.

[El duderino_]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1078682801954799617.html

So BUY BTC skip ETH for some enthusiasts.

[samson]

Watching the silver price slowly fall back to $6 over the next decade will be even worse.

From a TA point of view, $10 looks like a very strong support and potential bounce. But, r0ach is always talking about costs of production and oil as the main factor. Oil price is gonna dump really hard over the next couple of decades. As much as electrical cars increase their market share the more affected will be the demand of oil. Main demand right now is coming from cars all over the world. Another interesting side effect is that long distance flights will become even cheaper.

I'm sorry.

Where do you think all this electricity is going to come from?

While there will certainly be plenty of volatility in the energy sector, even "dumps", broadly speaking oil will never, ever, be cheaper in real terms.

Even serious industry paid annalists acknowledge that we are past peak EROI, and there is simply no replacement for the energy density of fossil fuels.

Well, I may be wrong, but this is the reasoning behind my thinking/prediction:

Yes, energy density of fossil fuels is the best and that is why it was so hard to replace for "mobile machines". Flights don't have any substitute for that very same reason. But flights are not the main demand of oil, cars are.

Everything points out that we will see an increase in market share of electric cars during the next next years/decades. I don't think it is unreasonable that half the cars would be electric in two decades.

That would mean a huge decrease in demand for oil.

Where do the electricity came from to power all those cars? Well, I also expect an increase of the alternate power sources now that ie photoelectric has become positive ROI.
Also nuclear is still rocking and with the new better and safer designs maybe they would start building much more new ones if the need arise? Not sure about that one to be honest.

Also it doesn't really need for something as huge as a halving of oil dependance from cars to affect the price hard. Since many decades to now that demand has been increasing yet the price has remained more or less constant (hugely volatile though) or even decreased. When it not only stops growing (the demand) but decrease significantly I would guess it's impact on price would be multiplied.

Also, oil producers seeing that in the future the demand would keep decreasing would be more eager to monetise their reserves faster than others. Again, with the effect of lowering price.

As I said, I might be wrong, but that is my reasoning and makes sense to me.

P.S.: Yeah, I haven't included fusion because it has been so long they said it was near that I don't believe it anymore.

You should google 'Carbon Engineering', based on what I've read they make a fuel by extracting CO2 out of the atmosphere and processing it with hydrogen extracted from water using electrolysis. It takes electric power but creates something much like  jet fuel - a store of energy.

The breakthrough here is that it's apparently now much cheaper to extract the atmospheric CO2 than before.

[El duderino_]

BCH is up over 93% in the last 14 days?

I don’t check the price of that shit very often as I sold all mine ages ago.

understandable its the same as i see a dogshit on the street ..... the next day or days i also never check if its still there or how its looking 

[jojo69]

Does that analysis factor in fusion eventually becoming economically viable or not?

My understanding is that progress with the stellerator has been very slow.  I did hear something a few months ago about a breakthrough with conventional tokamak technology, but nothing since.  I guess like some here with regard to quantum computing, I'm not holding my breath.  Were someone to demonstrate actual over unity containment with a roadmap to commodification it might be time to reassess, but there remains the density problem.  The energy density of a litre of unleaded is pretty astounding.

As to the idea that fusion will "solve" any problems, I am dubious.  Humans have a near perfect track record of abject stupidity.  All of our advances in energy transmutation, from steam to internal combustion to nuclear, have simply allowed us to do more bad things; more sprawling environmental destruction, larger wars...  Frankly, a South American or African peasant with a Mr.Fusion and a goat is a terrifying prospect.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

BCH is up over 93% in the last 14 days?

I don’t check the price of that shit very often as I sold all mine ages ago.

understandable its the same as i see a dogshit on the street ..... the next day or days i also never check if its still there or how its looking 

I guess when the price is that low it’s easy to make significant % gains when the price moves to pump back into bitcoin.

I’m not into day trading & stuff like that though.

Buy & HODL for longer term BIGGER profits is my game.

[El duderino_]

^
same game BRO

[mindrust]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1078682801954799617.html

So BUY BTC skip ETH for some enthusiasts.

Vitalik is a fucking tool.

The only reason ETH has any value is because they probably have Putin's support. Russia missed the bitcoin train and that's why wanted to create their own Bitcoin... That's not the problem tho. Everybody can create their own bitcoin but that still doesn't change the fact ETH is a piece of shit and Vitalik is a clueless moron.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

^
same game BRO

[criptix]

Does that analysis factor in fusion eventually becoming economically viable or not?

My understanding is that progress with the stellerator has been very slow.  I did hear something a few months ago about a breakthrough with conventional tokamak technology, but nothing since.  I guess like some here with regard to quantum computing, I'm not holding my breath.  Were someone to demonstrate actual over unity containment with a roadmap to commodification it might be time to reassess, but there remains the density problem.  The energy density of a litre of unleaded is pretty astounding.

As to the idea that fusion will "solve" any problems, I am dubious.  Humans have a near perfect track record of abject stupidity.  All of our advances in energy transmutation, from steam to internal combustion to nuclear, have simply allowed us to do more bad things; more sprawling environmental destruction, larger wars...  Frankly, a South American or African peasant with a Mr.Fusion and a goat is a terrifying prospect.

There is no density problem at all.

Fusion is estimated to be around 10 million times more efficient as classic fossil energy.

Basically it looks like this:

Fossil x1 million ~= nuclear fission x 10 ~= nuclear fusion x100 ~= matter/antimatter annihilation


Regarding the second part:

Would you rather live in the stoneage?


I mean with fusion energy abudant we will be able to colonize space and at least have an exit strategy in case our earth is destroyed.