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Question: How much of your corn do you plan on cashing out in the next massive bull run?
None - 19 (19.6%)
1-10% - 11 (11.3%)
11-20% - 12 (12.4%)
21-30% - 15 (15.5%)
31-40% - 4 (4.1%)
41-50% - 10 (10.3%)
51-60% - 8 (8.2%)
61-70% - 5 (5.2%)
71-80% - 3 (3.1%)
81-90% - 2 (2.1%)
91-99% - 0 (0%)
100% - 8 (8.2%)
Total Voters: 97

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21781056 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (147 posts by 36 users deleted.)
realr0ach
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January 12, 2019, 12:21:14 PM

Can only banks start a Lightning Network Node?
Can only banks validate LN transactions?

Can YOU create a fucking branch bank right now?  NO.  You need massive capital, lawyers, govt connections, and everything else.  All of the same rules will apply to Lightning nodes, just NOT DAY ONE.  Stop playing dumb.  Those regulations and red tape (AML/KYC) will lock out any wildcat nodes and the only ones will be run by people like Bank of America and Goldman Sachs.  

Anything that has an easily identifiable physical or digital surface attack vector will be enveloped by the current system.  Claiming you're going to run a wildcat Lightning node is like claiming you're going to be some type freelance illegal porn distributor and the FBI is not going to kick in your door.  If you're capable of putting 1+1 together, shilling for Lightning is like shilling directly for Goldman Sachs.
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January 12, 2019, 12:24:33 PM

Roach isnt wrong regarding LN and centralisation.

If LN gets adoption it seems very likely that mega hubs will be created to route majority of LN txes.

The reason is quite simple:

The normal user would rather open 1 channel with a mega hub (which has channels open with millions of other users) instead of directly opening millions of channels with each user (ease of use and economic viability).

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January 12, 2019, 12:24:38 PM


Shamirs Secret Splitting
https://iancoleman.io/shamir/

I would't enter my passphrase in any online form or on any computer that had internet access.
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January 12, 2019, 12:26:31 PM

Roach isnt wrong regarding LN and centralisation.

If LN gets adoption it seems very likely that mega hubs will be created to route majority of LN txes.

The reason is quite simple:

The normal user would rather open 1 channel with a mega hub (which has channels open with millions of other users) instead of directly opening millions of channels with each user (ease of use and economic viability).

Of course, I already said long ago this is the only real possible endgame outcome of Lightning network.  You cannot trust ANYONE shilling for Lightning network and should treat them as the enemy.  Bitcoin centralization is  bad enough, but Lightning is a blueprint of everything the bankers would love to happen.  I did not make the decision lightly that all digital currencies are garbage and we should be using only physical metals as money instead.

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January 12, 2019, 12:27:08 PM


Shamirs Secret Splitting
https://iancoleman.io/shamir/

I would't enter my passphrase in any online form or on any computer that had internet access.


You can use it offline.
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THE NEXT 24 YEARS ARE CRITICAL🍄💊


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January 12, 2019, 12:35:22 PM

[...]Lightning Network is an exact replica of the current banking system [...]

You have to upgrade your thinking.... Roll Eyes

You people are clueless if you think all Lightning nodes that route transactions won't be run and controlled by the banking entitites that already exist.  They can simply make it that way with the stroke of a pen.  Banks are not traditionally in the semiconductor business, so that has slowed their ascent of taking control of bitcoin mining, but Lightning doesn't require mining.  It's the playground of their already existing business model, to just insert themselves in as middlemen by regulation with the following result:

Banks collect infinite interest by taking a cut of every transaction with no skin in the game and own the planet.

So there is no way to escape from banks.
Your doomed
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January 12, 2019, 12:36:48 PM


Shamir's Secret Splitting
https://iancoleman.io/shamir/

I would't enter my passphrase in any online form or on any computer that had internet access.


For sure:
1) Download from Github to a usb stick,
2) Transfer to an offline machine and run it and use values.
3) Wipe machine

My mistake, I forgot to mention it because it was obvious to me. But of course your keys and seeds should NEVER be on an internet connected machine (thats currently on the internet, or later connects to the internet)
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January 12, 2019, 12:42:42 PM

Another funny aspect of bitcoin is people believing a deflationary currency somehow screws the tyrannical government.  What is an inflationary currency in reality?  Mostly just a hidden, flat tax on everyone.  Instead of the out of control govt spending too much and debasing the currency to finance it, they will simply raise taxes instead and keep on spending the same amount.  

And how are you going to stop them?  You're using a non-fungible, Orwellian tracking token that abolishes the 5th amendment and allows them to do IRS audits 24 hours a day, 365 days a week.  It's an even greater tool of govt extraction and slavery than the one that already exists.  Using digital money and abolishing cash or physical money (metals) is exactly what they want you to do to make their job of enslaving you and extracting your money easier.

To make things even more stupid, imagine people owning a bunch of shitcoins in the future and losing the private keys.  The govt then comes for their "wealth tax" and even though you're completely unable to pay it due to losing your keys, they don't believe you and send you to jail anyway.  Even better, imagine them doing that to people who used to own like 1000 bitcoins and sold them for a dollar each and then have to prove they don't own them anymore or go to jail.  This is why you do NOT use non-fungible tracking system coins.
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January 12, 2019, 12:44:39 PM
Merited by Toxic2040 (1)

I don't like where it's heading :

https://www.ccn.com/is-bitcoin-price-heading-to-low-3000-traders-expect-short-term-downtrend/

"From December 17 to 20, the Bitcoin price increased from $3,181 to $4,172, by more than 31 percent within a three-day span.

But, at the time, an FX hedge fund CEO Su Zhu said that buy walls on leading fiat-to-crypto exchanges in the likes of Coinbase and Bitstamp started to build up in the $3,200 to $3,300 range and investors began accumulating the asset at a low price range.

He said on December 13:

10% down from here ($3,300), buy walls on @Coinbase are now the largest (in BTC notional ) since mid-2015. Similar for Bitstamp. To break lower will require filling these fiat-backed bids. Either 1) more BTC borrow to come online 2) KYC-able off-ramp selling. Derivatives selling will just lead to funding becoming very negative as it has been.

The short-term rally Bitcoin experienced from December 17 to 20 was essentially a corrective rally triggered by oversold conditions and given the lack of momentum of the asset throughout late December and early January, it was fairly evident that the probability of a proper short-term rally was low.

DonAlt, a cryptocurrency investor and technical analyst, said after BTC fell below $3,600 that a drop to $3,350 can be expected as a support level at $3,600 was cleanly breached.
...
Although the daily volume of Bitcoin and Ethereum still remain relatively high, the volume of the cryptocurrency market is hovering at $15 billion, down $7 billion since January 10.

If crypto assets continue to free fall without meaningful volume and strong sell pressure, a short-term drop should be expected."
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January 12, 2019, 12:45:12 PM

There's too much to explain about why it's complete garbage, but just one example in particular involves transaction validator nodes.  In the base bitcoin model this is going to be the miners and the miners are required to compete in terms of economic soundness and efficiency in their operation.  Since the state is the bankers, they can then implement huge red tape and regulation, killing off any 'hobby' miners or really any competitors in general except themselves.

So it's pretty easy for the banks to completely control bitcoin already as is with blacklists and everything else, turning into a complete dystopia, but they do have at least some small inconveniences in their way.  With Lightning Network, there IS NO hashing for them to do, they can simply regulate everyone else out of existence with red tape, then they control ALL Lightning router nodes and collect their vampiric usury fees off every transaction with no skin in the game.  In other words, there's ZERO difference between that and current banking.  Banks collect infinite interest by taking a cut of every transaction with no skin in the game and own the planet.

How can you censor a transaction when you don't know the parties involved.
If a party decides to censor you simply try an alternative route
How will they control ALL the lightning nodes, anyone can start a node.
'Regulate out of existence' like they regulated out of existence Bittorrent !
Lightning doesn't  break Bitcoin's fixed supply.

None of your arguments hold water, try harder!

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January 12, 2019, 12:53:33 PM

If a party decides to censor you simply try an alternative route
How will they control ALL the lightning nodes, anyone can start a node.

I already answered that.  Lightning nodes are NOT invisible.  Nor are football stadium sized mining facilities.  If you think a professional money laundering enterprise - that's what freelance lightning nodes will be known by to the govt -  are somehow immune to govt regulation when they can easily come knock on your door, you're out of your mind:

Anything that has an easily identifiable physical or digital surface attack vector will be enveloped by the current system.  Claiming you're going to run a wildcat Lightning node is like claiming you're going to be some type freelance illegal porn distributor and the FBI is not going to kick in your door.
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January 12, 2019, 12:57:05 PM

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January 12, 2019, 01:01:20 PM

Of course lightning is a far weaker system than Bitcoin offering far less security and censorship resistance.

You miss the point it does nothing to fix the current monetary system.  The fact bitcoin is designed around having built-in, rent seeking middlemen who you need to ask permission from to move the coins you supposedly own, and then need to pay a ransom extortion fee to, should be a red flag to any non-idiot that bitcoin at it's core does really nothing to alter the evil banking system that currently exists.  The variable of fixed money supply in bitcoin vs infinite fiat supply is pretty much a giant red herring to distract people in this regard.

The real issue at hand isn't the variable of supply, but the ability of people to insert themselves into the middleman position and siphon off wealth while doing virtually nothing, collecting infinite interest, and ownining the entire planet in the process.  The banks do this in their current business model, and both bitcoin and the lightning network are designed the same way.  So nothing really changes in the end.

Physical metals, on the other hand, DO NOT have built-in middlemen like bitcoin and the current banking system do.  If I attempt to spend a bitcoin, I am involuntarily making someone else rich in the process - the designed to centralize, built-in middlemen mining monopoly or lightning node monopoly.  If I attempt to spend a gold, silver, or copper coin, NOBODY else is profiting off my transaction and sucking up all wealth in the universe in the process.

I like your content, it makes me think on some aspects of the current world monetary/goods system.
One thing I disagree with is that in order for you to be able to spend that gold, silver or copper coin you've already made someone rich, the guys that mined the raw metal and the guys that sold you the coin so you can spend it.
Unless you start mining gold, silver or copper yourself and then transfer the raw material to a coin, you're making someone else rich.

Try mining gold yourself? Aren't all the gold, silver and copper mines in the World owned by A FEW large corporations based on licenses that the Governments granted them for lots of money?
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January 12, 2019, 01:01:51 PM

I get (and like) everything about bitcoin with one point that is not clear to me: is credit possible in btc-based financial system?
If yes, then how? If no, it could be a limitation, albeit most people might think that this is a feature.

I enjoy short term zero % credit (as i pay my bills in full every credit card cycle).
I fully understand that it is a gimmick and most people don't do that and accumulate debt, although my personal interest payment is -1.5% (1.5% reward and NO interest).
How bitcoin can/will fight this?
I'm afraid it's a structural problem. Lending requires trust, which is usually provided by "reliable" parties - our friends the banks. A trustless system such as bitcoin makes it hard to implement such an arrangement, unless the collateral is tokenizable too.

Quote
I would be happy to lend my btc (on a monthly basis) to a reliable party (if there is such a thing in btc world) and get back 2-3% interest on a yearly basis, but only if interest is in btc and not fiat.
IMHO, btc lending needs to be established and sooner rather than later.

I would have liked to do that too, but when I searched a bit, the only option I found were some exchanges lending out your btc as margin for other users, which required quite a bit of trust - counterparty risk compounded into squared counterparty risk!
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January 12, 2019, 01:04:45 PM

Realistically, in order for the govt to not completely control every aspect of bitcoin and turn it into their cashless society slavery system, you would need more transaction validators than are reasonable to prosecute them all.  Like in the base bitcoin system, there are VERY FEW mega miners and it's extremely easy for the govt to jail these people, force them to implement AML/KYC, force them to implement govt specified protocol changes, etc.

There's less overhead to create a Lightning node, so there can be more of them than the base bitcoin transaction validators, but LN is lower in the hierarchy so the weakest link of having only a few mega miners takes precedent. Even if it didn't take precedent, Lightning is also designed to centralize under a few mega hubs anyway for optimal pathing.  You're screwed in different ways no matter what path you take.  This is why I repeat myself over and over that there's no viable solutions to ANYTHING in cryptocurrency and we should be using physical metals instead.
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January 12, 2019, 01:12:56 PM

If a party decides to censor you simply try an alternative route
How will they control ALL the lightning nodes, anyone can start a node.

I already answered that.  Lightning nodes are NOT invisible.  Nor are football stadium sized mining facilities.  If you think a professional money laundering enterprise - that's what freelance lightning nodes will be known by to the govt -  are somehow immune to govt regulation when they can easily come knock on your door, you're out of your mind:

Anything that has an easily identifiable physical or digital surface attack vector will be enveloped by the current system.  Claiming you're going to run a wildcat Lightning node is like claiming you're going to be some type freelance illegal porn distributor and the FBI is not going to kick in your door.

Yes lightning Nodes are not invisible,  but when you receive a lightning TX and you forward-it on to another node, you have no idea where it is ultimately going too, and where it has ultimately come from. You only know the next hop in the chain forwards and backwards which is insufficient to meaningfully censor.

If my node is being refused a channel to a 'hub' I simply open a channel to another node which connects to the 'hub' and all is well. You can't force everyone to censor.
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January 12, 2019, 01:16:37 PM

If we take the following grand themes as the truth, the future of cryptocurrency is bright:

Quote
Deflationary expectations, now 40+ years old, are becoming inflationary expectations.
Cooperative and multi-play games in both international politics and domestic politics, now 70+ years old, are becoming competitive and single-play games.
Modern capital markets, now 150+ years old, are becoming political utilities.
Source: https://www.epsilontheory.com/you-are-here/
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January 12, 2019, 01:16:56 PM

I like your content, it makes me think on some aspects of the current world monetary/goods system.
One thing I disagree with is that in order for you to be able to spend that gold, silver or copper coin you've already made someone rich, the guys that mined the raw metal and the guys that sold you the coin so you can spend it.
Unless you start mining gold, silver or copper yourself and then transfer the raw material to a coin, you're making someone else rich.

Try mining gold yourself? Aren't all the gold, silver and copper mines in the World owned by A FEW large corporations based on licenses that the Governments granted them for lots of money?

At face value, you can argue that there are 'choke points' for bringing new metals into the system parties can attempt to monopolize, but I would say no matter how you look at it, the monopolization is less than that of bitcoin mining for numerous reasons.  For instance, where a river or stream dumps into another body of water is supposedly good for trying to find gold, and such a place can be hand mined by pan while spending zero gasoline.  

In an actual physical metals based economy, the price of diesel, which makes up a large amount of the corporation's cost of production for metals, would be priced in gold and silver instead of fiat dollars.  The corporation cannot misallocate capital by spending valueless fiat to pull new metals out of the ground in an inefficient way.  They would need to spend less gold and silver on gas than they're using to get it out of the ground.  As you can see, the corporation doesn't have vastly superior economy of scale over a human powered, pan miner of gold at a river making the little guy's effort completely pointless.

This is the exact opposite in bitcoin.  The corporation's economy of scale makes the little guy's effort at mining generally always pointless, and thus far more centralizing.
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January 12, 2019, 01:20:02 PM

Where you can freely take your silver and gold bars through any airport
Virtually nowhere

Don't affect people like roach cus they don't get out or travel
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January 12, 2019, 01:26:55 PM

Where you can freely take your silver and gold bars through any airport
Virtually nowhere

This is a standard 80 IQ bitcoin user argument.  Bitcoin is not a censorship free system.  Transaction validators are designed to centralize, and govts can and will force those centralized, enormous miner buildings to practice AML/KYC. Bitcoin's current value is based solely around regulatory arbitrage, but it's not a viable longterm position because it's far too easy for the govt to stop it.  You have no valid argument because regulatory arbitrage IS NOT a viable property of a centralized, non-fungible, tracking system (blockchain) that abolishes the 5th amendment.
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