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Question: What happens first:
$65,000 - 52 (88.1%)
$48,000 - 7 (11.9%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26317027 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
spiderbrain
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May 12, 2019, 12:23:05 AM

Do time and day of this bull run tell us anything about the most likely immediate cause?
It looks like the price has been drifting up slowing until it hit 6k, which then moved into a feedback loop of short position liquidation and day trader FOMO. At some point all the short sellers will be dead and then the FOMO will flip.
I was thinking that a possible leak leading to market turmoil is more likely at certain times of day than others, depending on the source. And the weekend is a strange choice of day. So my post was intended to trigger some interesting backstage theory or tinfoil conspirationology.

Oh sorry, I was engaged in my usual counter-intelligence channel stuffing. I confess, it was the lizard people. All the details here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QihkWmS7dTI
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May 12, 2019, 12:25:25 AM
Last edit: May 12, 2019, 12:35:35 AM by fabiorem

I was reading over some WO comments from the July 2015 pump to 320. The vibe was pretty similar to this and unfortunately dumped back below 200 about 40 days later. If we can stay above 6K for 40 days then I believe we get all time highs this year. If not then I expect to see a ferocious dump back to 5k or less.

Either way this pump is a lot of fun and everyone will know if we dump that its just a blessing to get cheap coins and not the path to 1500 and final capitulation.

Its a bull market ya know Cheesy


The russian government didnt want to buy bitcoins in 2015.
I guess they are behind this rally. If they started buying, we will see a crypto cold war. Which side will buy more?
yefi
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May 12, 2019, 12:32:03 AM

I definitely was bored/burnt out. I announced something of a temporary, partial retirement from crypto/this thread.

It's good to break away and follow other passions. Crypto can become an unhealthy obsession.
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May 12, 2019, 12:38:47 AM

sub 7000 again

Sad
gentlemand
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May 12, 2019, 12:40:39 AM
Merited by BobLawblaw (1)

sub 7000 again

Sad

Who cares? It's blatantly not sustainable. It's fun to watch and a little reminder of what was and what will be. That'll do me no matter what happens to this action.
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May 12, 2019, 12:41:23 AM

If even we have gotten surprised by the strenght of this rally I can't even dare to think in which state of negation the shorters must be now.

Need update.  Are you coming close to uncapitulation?
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May 12, 2019, 12:54:51 AM

Trying to work out what I enjoy more in life. Bitcoin or my family  Huh
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May 12, 2019, 12:56:52 AM

Looking good.
At some point we will need a pullback. Would be nice to see 6k form strong support.

Great news then, but as always it would be wise to be looking ahead to the next stage.

This has now become an exponential rise. All exponential rises end in a big pullback... the only question is where is the top ?  A buyer here will inevitably be under water at some point, but it seems more likely that this is the first proper step in a bull market.

The real test is, when the sharp pullback comes, where does support come in ?  A bounce from anything over 6k will be positive (looking at a timeframe of some months)

I think that a bounce anywhere above $4,500 would be positive.

Remember April 1?  We broke above $4,200, so it would be fair enough to test $4,200 again...

In other words, it seems that we have a lot of space before we should be getting worried...

Of course, it would hurt more to test $4,200 and be more difficult to achieve, if the price goes to $10k first, so once we start moving up, exponentially, like you conceded, it takes a pretty damned large correction to change this into either negative or a bull trap (too BIG to be a bulltrap).
El duderino_
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May 12, 2019, 01:01:08 AM

Price who cares, getting sober matter now




--------> HodlSleep needed

Goodnight brothers!!
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May 12, 2019, 01:03:38 AM

But why would they go and buy from an exchange?

Something is cooking, for sure... but donno what.

Instant and guaranteed coins 24/7?

OTC won't exactly spring into action at midnight on a Saturday. They're all out ruining their septums.

Yes but.... I would think institutional investors would go directly to the big hodlers (10.000-100.000BTC) to buy directly from them.... Not go and buy from exchanges in the middle of a fucking weekend to crazily pump the price.

Maybe the big holders don’t want to sell

Yeah, it could also be a possibility that after months trying to negotiate with them with no success they had to resort to exchanges.... who knows...

Anyway.... this has been already one of the longer rallys with no significant correction. It's starting to get scary in the short term. Absolutely nice in the medium/long term.

Agreed.  30% plus correction anticipated - very likely before surpassing $10k.

If it does not come before surpassing $10k, then for sure it has large chances before surpassing $20k. 

I stand by my statement.

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May 12, 2019, 01:10:17 AM

Sold some, so feel free to skyrocket more

Thx we Will take the gaines you left!
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May 12, 2019, 01:16:33 AM

~snip~

I think that a bounce anywhere above $4,500 would be positive.

Remember April 1?  We broke above $4,200, so it would be fair enough to test $4,200 again...

In other words, it seems that we have a lot of space before we should be getting worried...

Of course, it would hurt more to test $4,200 and be more difficult to achieve, if the price goes to $10k first, so once we start moving up, exponentially, like you conceded, it takes a pretty damned large correction to change this into either negative or a bull trap (too BIG to be a bulltrap).

How about calling 7.2k-7.5k top for now and hoping to hold this run up. and test 6k mark if something goes off?

Tbh feeling bad with this run. don't have extra cash and waiting for pay check, really don't want to see sudden pump in price.
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May 12, 2019, 01:17:10 AM

If even we have gotten surprised by the strenght of this rally I can't even dare to think in which state of negation the shorters must be now.

Need update.  Are you coming close to uncapitulation?

Yup. it's done. Smiley

I think we are due for a short term correction though... but that's just healthy consolidation. Will buy the dip.
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May 12, 2019, 01:27:30 AM

7300$  Shocked Any predictions where the price will stop growing? Lips sealed Investors will fall to the FOMO soon.

No, but a pullback to 6200 would be very likely in the medium term, in order to test support. That gives a 15% edge from here, to increase a traders stash.

Of course could go higher than $7300, but the low 6k's will need a test of some kind, sometime. A quick look at the chart shows how much work was done with 6k as a base.

This run is in a very short timeframe.
Thanks for the clear explanation. So in the short term, we will go back to the $6300 again?
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May 12, 2019, 01:31:37 AM

7300$  Shocked Any predictions where the price will stop growing? Lips sealed Investors will fall to the FOMO soon.

No, but a pullback to 6200 would be very likely in the medium term, in order to test support. That gives a 15% edge from here, to increase a traders stash.

Of course could go higher than $7300, but the low 6k's will need a test of some kind, sometime. A quick look at the chart shows how much work was done with 6k as a base.

This run is in a very short timeframe.
Thanks for the clear explanation. So in the short term, we will go back to the $6300 again?

Most are missing a point. Remember, there was almost no test of support in 2017 bull run. If we're in a serious bull run (powered by some nice events like ETF approval), forget the corrections.
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May 12, 2019, 01:34:18 AM
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Thanks for the clear explanation. So in the short term, we will go back to the $6300 again?

One would expect so by the traditional play of things. Of course, honey badger and all, anything can happen. It's possible the sense of invincibility Bitcoin has bred could lead to the bull run being massively front-run and a mini-bubble forming.
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May 12, 2019, 01:56:30 AM
Merited by JimboToronto (1)

7300$  Shocked Any predictions where the price will stop growing? Lips sealed Investors will fall to the FOMO soon.

No, but a pullback to 6200 would be very likely in the medium term, in order to test support. That gives a 15% edge from here, to increase a traders stash.

Of course could go higher than $7300, but the low 6k's will need a test of some kind, sometime. A quick look at the chart shows how much work was done with 6k as a base.

This run is in a very short timeframe.
Thanks for the clear explanation. So in the short term, we will go back to the $6300 again?

Most are missing a point. Remember, there was almost no test of support in 2017 bull run. If we're in a serious bull run (powered by some nice events like ETF approval), forget the corrections.

What do you mean? Just look at the charts, there were a bunch of 30%+ corrections all along the way.
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May 12, 2019, 01:58:46 AM

15m


#dyor

Using regular candles instead of heiken ashi... LIKE A PEASANT.
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May 12, 2019, 02:17:32 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JSRAW (1)

~snip~

I think that a bounce anywhere above $4,500 would be positive.

Remember April 1?  We broke above $4,200, so it would be fair enough to test $4,200 again...

In other words, it seems that we have a lot of space before we should be getting worried...

Of course, it would hurt more to test $4,200 and be more difficult to achieve, if the price goes to $10k first, so once we start moving up, exponentially, like you conceded, it takes a pretty damned large correction to change this into either negative or a bull trap (too BIG to be a bulltrap).

How about calling 7.2k-7.5k top for now and hoping to hold this run up. and test 6k mark if something goes off?

I certainly don't claim to be able to claim where the top is, but I know that it is going to be harder to get down to our April 1 breaking out point of $4,200.  BTC has put a decent price cushion between where we are at and that price.  Furthermore, when we are continuing to go up, we have to see how the next 1-3 days play out and if the going UP stops.  Currently, she does not seem inclined towards stopping the UP.

Tbh feeling bad with this run. don't have extra cash and waiting for pay check, really don't want to see sudden pump in price.

Hey, you can only do what you can do.  I know that when I was in my 20s, I was constantly struggling for any extra cash that I would be able to invest.  Once I got into my 30s, I had quite a bit more cash to invest, and therefore, having many years of investing does help with having both the cash flow, and also having enough capital that you can move it around sufficiently feel comfortable with your chosen allocations.

So I guess I am saying that sometimes, especially if you are in an accumulation phase, you can only do so much to accumulate.  You only have so much cash to allocate towards accumulation.  Actually when I first got into bitcoin, it took me a year to establish what I considered to be a comfortable stake, and I understand that, depending on cashflow, it could take some people longer than a year to really establish a comfortable BTC stake.  2-3 years or more might not be unreasonable, and that is part of the reason that dollar cost averaging remains a prudent strategy in Bitcoin, and even if you do not have a lot of extra cashflow, you will still likely prosper to keep investing in bitcoin for 10 years (even if it is just a small amount, your investment will continue to add up with the passage of time).

In other words, you have to compare your investment strategy to yourself and NOT to wherever other people might be.  So pace yourself to your own finances, and without rushing your strategy too much because of feelings of FOMO because the mere fact that you know about bitcoin and you have already engaged in a investing and accumulating strategy for more than a year puts you way the hell in front of the vast majority of people in the world.



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May 12, 2019, 02:37:02 AM

Oh the horror, fell to 7200+.....

Whatever shall we do?
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