Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jojo69]

is...is that a "new hats issued" column??

[WinslowIII]

I thought yesterday's dump was a major local top but bulls are showing some resilience. I guess this might just stay sideways for a couple days and keep pushing higher.

I'm still skeptical about these bubble projections though. I think the next year will look more like 2015-2016 than 2017. Too early....

I expected $9k end of year going by what happened in 2015, and we almost hit that in May. We are probably looking at a much more gradual incline over the next 2 years rather than relatively flat for a couple years then vertical like 2017. If that's the case, the top may not be as high but the following crash won't be nearly as severe. This is what needs to happen before mainstream gets in anyway, these monster rallies followed by monster dumps are a huge turnoff for most people.

[Last of the V8s]

I'd like a refund. I paid for a full half hour argument, and that was only five minutes.

[HairyMaclairy]

Fine.  I will make a half hearted attempt.

Toxic why do you close your box before December 2021?  Hard to tell on mobile but you are closing in October or November?

Does the centre represent a target?

[Toxic2040]

Fabulous. 

Are we married?

No...at least not without a pre-nup and a blood screening.

I'd like a refund. I paid for a full half hour argument, and that was only five minutes.

this is merely foreplay...abide


--------

..then I keep thinking..what if it does this?  Goes up to say $20k-$25k this year...lets all those baghodlers exit...signals bearishness mid to end of 2020...OG's panic sell like little girls...and then does an about face in 2021 and rockets upwards towards $80k-$100k before the next cycle?

---------

Monthly first looks



#stronghands'19

[HairyMaclairy]

Seems like a perfectly reasonable pattern.  We ought to bubble around the halvening and crash after.  

We are currently high, hot and fast heading toward the halvening.  What would really put the wind up the skirts would be a big crash just before the halvening.  Like a pre-fork crash.

Maybe that’s the scenario to aim for.  Bubble builds through 2019, then big crash in March or April 2020.  Slow recovery through second half of 2020 turning superexpoparabolic in late 2021.  

[cryptjh]

Another bullish signal.

BTC difficulty is an at all time high. Miners' margins have increased with the BTC price and it looks like they're reinvesting those increased margins in more hardware.

https://twitter.com/coinmetrics/status/1134486545107472385

[WinslowIII]

Seems like a perfectly reasonable pattern.  We ought to bubble around the halvening and crash after.  

We are currently high, hot and fast heading toward the halvening.  What would really put the wind up the skirts would be a big crash just before the halvening.  Like a pre-fork crash.

Maybe that’s the scenario to aim for.  Bubble builds through 2019, then big crash in March or April 2020.  Slow recovery through second half of 2020 turning superexpoparabolic in late 2021.  

Well, that would be true if bitcoin were a shitcoin. But you ignore the very real adoption curve that is happening and the very real effect less new coins has on this adoption curve.
The real effect of the halving comes well after the actual event.

[Toxic2040]

Seems like a perfectly reasonable pattern.  We ought to bubble around the halvening and crash after.  

We are currently high, hot and fast heading toward the halvening.  What would really put the wind up the skirts would be a big crash just before the halvening.  Like a pre-fork crash.

Maybe that’s the scenario to aim for.  Bubble builds through 2019, then big crash in March or April 2020.  Slow recovery through second half of 2020 turning superexpoparabolic in late 2021.  

I have some concern its coming even faster than that..what if we just keep going up until say Oct. or Nov.   Big crash there abouts aided by Tulip Trust FUD or some similar dick move. Deep dive until mid Spring of 2020 and then all hell breaking loose in a para-rex towards $100k+


Its not just Bitcoin going through this compression...its global. I feel it.

[HairyMaclairy]

Yes it’s starting to feel like 2004 - 2006.  Record profits everywhere.  But that can run for a long time.

But what is the trigger?  It won’t be sub prime lending this time.  What is the legacy market financial WMD?

[Toxic2040]

New MasterLuc comments.

telegram and tradingview
https://t.me/bitcoin_wanga/48
https://www.tradingview.com/u/PentarhUdi/

+1 WOsMerit birr

Daily MA200. My forecast changed to bearish when we were under it. Now the opposite situation. Net breakdown confirmed by prominent volumes. Here you can also note the fact of breaking up the weekly week. Long-term prognosis: bullish. New heights worth waiting in 12-18 months.

[Toxic2040]

Yes it’s starting to feel like 2004 - 2006.  Record profits everywhere.  But that can run for a long time.

But what is the trigger?  It won’t be sub prime lending this time.  What is the legacy market financial WMD?

ABS and CDO's?  Derivatives of some sort as always.

[WinslowIII]

The debt crisis is coming, hyperinflation of fiat is coming. This is a very simple situation to understand. Instead of trying to time your bitcoin dump, just buy what you can, hold and watch the meltdown.

[jojo69]

superexpoparabolic

you heard it here first folks

[HairyMaclairy]

They are doing a fairly crap job of hyperinflating at the moment

[realr0ach]

Physical metals are not ring worlds.

They are, because their price is suppressed by the fiat system, which is based on unpayable global debt.

The only thing that can free PMs values is to change the fiat system to a bitcoin system. In this way, governments would have to sell their gold for bitcoin, thus increasing gold price.

That was possibly the dumbest thing I've ever read in my life.  Your argument centers around the false dichotomy that metals are derivatives of fiat paper and that Bitcoins are not.  Both objects are currently fiat derivatives, so your argument has no validity out of the gate, but through thousands of years of history, fiat paper has ALWAYS been derivatives of metals and not vice versa.  

If we apply the mediocrity principle, the current nature of metals is simply an outlier and will revert back to paper being derivatives of metals and not vice versa.  Once again, all you do is prove how loathsome and dishonest the nature of most humans is and how much they will lie in an attempt at personal gain - telling endless amounts of lies and bullshit in order to try and trick people into buying their imaginary, valueless, centralized, digital shitcoin scam.

[Hueristic]

Lawsuit fun in riposte to Craigy and bum chum - https://twitter.com/PeterMcCormack/status/1134411099250581504

What a strange world we live in.

Craig forced his own hand on this one. Ought to be a doozy.

AreYouNotEntertained.png

Hah, love it.

Jameson Lopp
@lopp
   13h
Replying to @PeterMcCormack
You flew to the US to allow me to explain my perspective of Bitcoin; I just realized that we chatted about Craig for a few minutes during that 2017 interview. I'll happily return the favor and fly to the UK to explain to a judge that Craig is a pathological liar.

BTW I'm not so sure everyone knows what NET Worth means by the looks of the poll.

[WinslowIII]

They are doing a fairly crap job of hyperinflating at the moment

Do you really think bitcoin would be worth $8500 today if fiat had a future? It would be worth more like .85.

[realr0ach]

Not that I didn't already know Craig Wright isn't Satoshi the first day he made the claim years ago, he sort of blows his cover when you can tell he's on the verge of laughter when that Asian guy asks him if he's Satoshi in the interview before replying "yes".  It is rather amusing seeing Craig trying to scam mindless, lying, digital shitcoin pump and dump scammers, though.  If just about everything claimed by shitcoin scammers is a lie from decentralization, to removing middlemen (it has built-in rent seeking middlemen) to everything else, fate would have it that you deserve Craig Wright.

[realr0ach]

They are doing a fairly crap job of hyperinflating at the moment

https://i.ibb.co/3rKG2ZY/D76-F40-D7-DA47-4874-839-E-3-B56-BC344177.jpg

Do you really think bitcoin would be worth $8500 today if fiat had a future? It would be worth more like .85.

It's not worth "$8500 a piece" since price is set at the margin.  Example:  There was once a time when NXT was worth hundreds of millions in market cap but the only exchange it was really traded on was Poloniex and the buy side was an entire whopping 20 BTC.  Dump 20 BTC and it's worth $0 (I almost did it just to fuck with Come from Beyond).  

It's all a confidence game being propped up by people like Chinese scammers who control the mining monopoly and benefit from said price distortion and manipulation.  The real value of any digital shitcoin is zero because it's a fake commodity that nobody actually needs.  How many Bitcoins do you need to build a house with?  None.  How many Bitcoins do you need to create dinner?  None.  How many Bitcoins to do ANYTHING in the physical world at all?  None.  It's a Keynesian confidence game.