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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21331307 times)
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June 15, 2019, 10:29:32 PM

Nice comparison, but WTF for an HAT is that ?!

I was in a hurry so I just picked a hat from my local football team, but I'm in the market for a better hat!
I think I'm going to ask xhomerx10 if he has one I can use.
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June 15, 2019, 10:29:39 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Do you think shorts/long ratio (or absolute amounts of shorts/longs) has any impact on bitcoin price?


Yes they do. But you can't really act on that data alone. I mean, when there is a lot of shorts and some strong enough buying pressure happens the liquidations throw the price way higher. But you don't know if/when the buying pressure is gonna happen... especially not when you are seeing just the contrary (lots of shorters).

The only time is when it comes useful to know the shorts/longs ratio is when the price is pumping and there is still a lot of shorters.... then you know the rekt is coming.
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June 15, 2019, 10:30:45 PM

It's not easy taking a BIG ASS cut in your networth,

Truth you speak, young padowan - but with practice, easier it gets.

For once, I don't want to "...become an old man, filled with regret, waiting to die alone.”
We don't have to be like Jessie L., who probably has a record of gaining and losing large fortunes.
One time he even busted a trust fund, somehow.

I think that WO crowd would be a seller from 20-30k to whatever.
Those (plus OG) bitcoins would allow newcomers to gain exposure.
Just don't sell more than 70% total, EVER.

I doubt that very many OG wall observers will be selling many coins in the $20k to $30k range, except perhaps to skim a few off for insurance.

Selling up to 70% seems a bit much, but I do believe some WO OGs are willing to sell that high of a percentage for a variety of individualized reasons which may or may not be well thought out, except thinking or hoping to buy back lower.. which may or may not play out.

Ahem, NOT for 20K to 30k, but rather from [20-30K] to Whatever (50,60,100, 150, 333, 400K).
I am also very confident that if we "pop" to, say, 25K, then start correcting downwards, many WOers would sell at least a portion.
They would not want to bear a possibility of a second trip downwards. It would be hard to resist.
A similar situation played out in 2017 when we went to 1300, then corrected to 870 or so.
Lots of selling.

It may not matter too much, but I think that we have differing ways of spinning this whole matter in order to arrive at our conclusion.

Personally, I recall that there was a whole hell of a lot of hype about how many folks would be selling in the $900 to $1,500 price arena, but in the end, we largely went through that price arena like a hot knife going though butter, in spite of the mucho hype about the selling that would take place.   Sure, in January 2017 we passed above $1k and in March 2017, we revisited sub $1k like you said, but in my thinking there continued to be way more hype about down than was able to be such sustained...l which is likely going to be similar this time around too... which is a lot of dumbies and weak hands are going to be shook out of their coins in that price arena... but the vast majority of the more experienced HODLers are not likely to sell many, if any, coins around that area.. and won't be shook from their coins, inspite of the then anticipated hype... and I doubt that there is going to be fear about revisiting low prices - like the nonsense that Vinny lingham was spouting out in March 2017... which did not play out, even though some gullible folks listened to him and sold their coins.
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June 15, 2019, 10:33:28 PM

Good to have you back mfort

Missed you on the thread...... !!!!!

Thanks, Mic. Funny thing happened. I semi-retired and instead of more time on my hands, I'm spread thinner than ever. Not a bad problem to have when you're enjoying what you're doing.
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June 15, 2019, 10:34:20 PM

.. which may or may not play out.

exactly

say I had managed to time the top and got out at 17.5 last time, which would have been a pretty good trick to hit that 5 day window, sure as shit it would have run to 45 and this dip would have bottomed at 18.

That's why selling at the right time is so hard (last time it could have easily been either 15K or 30K).

That is why you should be prepared to skim (and not regret) rather than attempting to play balls to the walls or regretting that you did not sell more.  If you sufficiently skim, then you should not regret - even though the fact of the matter remains that you could have sold more.. but so fucking what... you already skimmed within the parameters of your  largely already established plan.
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June 15, 2019, 10:43:58 PM

And here is the slip up Shocked
https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/c0kq3v/craig_wright_i_remember_reading_it_probably_when/
I remember reading while I wrote it. Roll Eyes

He is going to jail anyways so to end this f*cking imposter once and for all:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/c0v39h/craig_wright_committed_fraud_according_to_florida/
first comment "I remember reading it....When I wrote it"  Tongue

Lol. Outed himself. This is the problem with Narcissist scammers, they spin so many lies they can't remember which lie is which until it bites them in the ass.

Also the real Satoshi would never do "conferences". No fkn way. He/they fkn disappeared at the first sign of the letter agencies sniffing about.
Yes he a scammer for sure. Wink
Just look at the letter/email he sent to dave a deceased partners father to do his dirty work for him.

 Roll Eyes
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June 15, 2019, 10:50:38 PM
Last edit: June 16, 2019, 03:32:59 AM by Biodom

It's not easy taking a BIG ASS cut in your networth,

Truth you speak, young padowan - but with practice, easier it gets.

For once, I don't want to "...become an old man, filled with regret, waiting to die alone.”
We don't have to be like Jessie L., who probably has a record of gaining and losing large fortunes.
One time he even busted a trust fund, somehow.

I think that WO crowd would be a seller from 20-30k to whatever.
Those (plus OG) bitcoins would allow newcomers to gain exposure.
Just don't sell more than 70% total, EVER.

I doubt that very many OG wall observers will be selling many coins in the $20k to $30k range, except perhaps to skim a few off for insurance.

Selling up to 70% seems a bit much, but I do believe some WO OGs are willing to sell that high of a percentage for a variety of individualized reasons which may or may not be well thought out, except thinking or hoping to buy back lower.. which may or may not play out.

Ahem, NOT for 20K to 30k, but rather from [20-30K] to Whatever (50,60,100, 150, 333, 400K).
I am also very confident that if we "pop" to, say, 25K, then start correcting downwards, many WOers would sell at least a portion.
They would not want to bear a possibility of a second trip downwards. It would be hard to resist.
A similar situation played out in 2017 when we went to 1300, then corrected to 870 or so.
Lots of selling.

It may not matter too much, but I think that we have differing ways of spinning this whole matter in order to arrive at our conclusion.

Personally, I recall that there was a whole hell of a lot of hype about how many folks would be selling in the $900 to $1,500 price arena, but in the end, we largely went through that price arena like a hot knife going though butter, in spite of the mucho hype about the selling that would take place.   Sure, in January 2017 we passed above $1k and in March 2017, we revisited sub $1k like you said, but in my thinking there continued to be way more hype about down than was able to be such sustained...l which is likely going to be similar this time around too... which is a lot of dumbies and weak hands are going to be shook out of their coins in that price arena... but the vast majority of the more experienced HODLers are not likely to sell many, if any, coins around that area.. and won't be shook from their coins, inspite of the then anticipated hype... and I doubt that there is going to be fear about revisiting low prices - like the nonsense that Vinny lingham was spouting out in March 2017... which did not play out, even though some gullible folks listened to him and sold their coins.

I probably agree with 90% of the above. Vinny did cause much selling, didn't he? Well, nobody knew back then if he was spouting nonsense or really had an insight. Only later we knew that it was the former.
Personally, my dream scenario would be a situation where btc literally follows the S/F graph. Sharp up, then quasi-stable for years. It's the best for slowly "skimming". Last time it was just too fast on both slopes.
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BTFD, on to 15K a coin !!!!


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June 15, 2019, 10:52:10 PM

Nice comparison, but WTF for an HAT is that ?!

I was in a hurry so I just picked a hat from my local football team, but I'm in the market for a better hat!
I think I'm going to ask xhomerx10 if he has one I can use.

He tailor make them.... just PM him with a desired subject bruuuuh
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June 15, 2019, 10:53:25 PM

at the mean time I don't mind if people co-wear the Vegeta with me and XhomerX, to shoot into 9k's up to 5-dig Cheesy

I will help you guys shoot into 9k then Cheesy

Already wearing it. Probably we will already be at 9k when xhomerx10 is done with my hat =D

Let´s go, 9k!!!
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June 15, 2019, 10:54:49 PM

at the mean time I don't mind if people co-wear the Vegeta with me and XhomerX, to shoot into 9k's up to 5-dig Cheesy

I will help you guys shoot into 9k then Cheesy

Already wearing it. Probably we will already be at 9k when xhomerx10 is done with my hat =D

Let´s go, 9k!!!
We will get there dont worry. Maybe by morning at this rate. Wink

Less Wright.
More Vegeta.


Your right but we are waiting for it to drop ur.. I mean rise..  you know what I mean Grin.
So atm we are just buying time right now until the vegetas can be released on the wall observer thread until then. Embarrassed
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BTFD, on to 15K a coin !!!!


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June 15, 2019, 10:54:56 PM

Good to have you back mfort

Missed you on the thread...... !!!!!

Thanks, Mic. Funny thing happened. I semi-retired and instead of more time on my hands, I'm spread thinner than ever. Not a bad problem to have when you're enjoying what you're doing.

I do understand that... my free time is also to less of time ....

Keep having fun with what you do....

Damn my time is almost over as i'm crawling into my hodlnest to cath my "famous" Roll Eyes HODLsleep.....
micgoossens
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BTFD, on to 15K a coin !!!!


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June 15, 2019, 11:07:32 PM


https://twitter.com/ThinkingUSD/status/1139986262876704768
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June 15, 2019, 11:11:17 PM

psssst, mic

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg51481297#msg51481297

heads up man, just last page
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June 15, 2019, 11:14:55 PM







So what isn't clear to understand??
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June 15, 2019, 11:18:30 PM

Even though the massive hodlers of bitcoin who can buy a lambo is sitting pretty

Humblebragpost: Every once in a while, I see a Lambo while I'm out and about in Dallas. I don't absolutely LOVE them, don't hate them at all, but I'm more of an odd-duck, and consider them too gauché - preferring the refined subtleties of Porsche, or the gravitas and raw power of a MacLaren.

Ferraris are right out.

Yeah, that was the other thing I wanted to do post-halvening - Get a black MacLaren GT to take back and forth from the city to the ranch... in 2022ish... if everything aligns to plan...

Dare to dream.

I’m probably going to get a Rolls Royce or a Bentley, as you say, if everything aligns to plan. Always wanted an NYC apartment too. These things will be doable if we hit $100,000+ per coin.

Obviously being financially sufficient, never working another day is the main goal but shit, I want & expect luxury with it too Cheesy

Dare to dream indeed.
 


Not sure you will be able to afford a Manhattan apartment even at $100K/btc... that's expensive shit yo

In the order of the couple of millions plus ridiculous yearly taxes and shit... for something not that big nor luxurious except for the placement.

I mean unless you want to use most of your stash for acquiring / maintaining it.

Plus you won't be able to use it for more than a few months a year.... you could rent it when not using it though... maybe a good investment.

It's funny (not so much) how when you grow a few steps higher in your net worth only to discover the next steps in the ladder come at an exponentially higher cost. (See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_Time )

Being financially sufficient for life is my main goal too. That might be doable.


I am going to put LFC in the approaching 100BTC ballpark/arena;... (no need to agree or admit to anything), but assuming 100BTC, and assuming that you would need a few million in extra cash to comfortably maintain such a location, you seem to be correct that $100k BTC would be barely achieving such objective in a comfortable and non-worry way.

Furthermore, I think that it is a bit problematic for any BTC HODLer to count on any kind of meaningful BTC price stability in the coming years, and I believe that is part of the reason that LFC and some other regular WO participants presume that they are going to have to cash out a decent amount of their BTC stash in order to achieve some of their material objectives.. and whether they are presuming too much or NOT could be a lesson in frustration and futility to them, if they are thinking that they are going to have enough value to achieve all of their objectives in a kind of comfortable and calm way - which also implies a decent amount of cushion to prepare for both ongoing volatility in bitcoin and other unexpected aspects of living expenses (which actually some of the unexpected needs to be planned for - which causes it to be a kind of expected unexpected).  

I am assuming a lower round figure than that one you are using here. Either 60 or 50, maybe even 75 at most. Obviously this is mere speculation and might perfectly be way wrong or based on bogus information (which is perfectly fine and a good opsec measure... we could all be lying in the hints being given here).

In fact, at $100K * 100BTC is ten millions, which might be the starting point in which an apartment in manhattan might start to not sound so much extravagant. At least a basic one. More so considering apartments in manhattan have never been a bad investment.

But yeah, even less than 100BTC and it is too much extravagance for a "third" home (unless you are american you can't really reside there for long). Perfectly OK for a primary residence, which is not the case of LFC.

This is basically the same as the "lambo" thing... which I would consider extravagant until a point where your net worth is 10x-100x-1000x the cost of the car. Unless it is your fucking main dream in life, in which case the ratio could be lower. YMMV.

Anyway, we all have dreams and that's good. I try to keep mine not too high to avoid frustration, but that's just me and my current circumstances. Again YMMV.
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June 15, 2019, 11:19:18 PM

I am not seeing any mention of Bitcoin in the mainstream media, which leads me to think the rally has some legs, ....before some kind of correction.
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June 15, 2019, 11:21:01 PM

8865 and in the cave GN!
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June 15, 2019, 11:26:55 PM

BitMEX futures = "over $9000" already! Wink
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June 15, 2019, 11:47:52 PM

1.7% away from reaching new this year high

and then kickoff to 50k
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June 16, 2019, 12:04:31 AM

It's not easy taking a BIG ASS cut in your networth,

Truth you speak, young padowan - but with practice, easier it gets.

For once, I don't want to "...become an old man, filled with regret, waiting to die alone.”
We don't have to be like Jessie L., who probably has a record of gaining and losing large fortunes.
One time he even busted a trust fund, somehow.

I think that WO crowd would be a seller from 20-30k to whatever.
Those (plus OG) bitcoins would allow newcomers to gain exposure.
Just don't sell more than 70% total, EVER.

I doubt that very many OG wall observers will be selling many coins in the $20k to $30k range, except perhaps to skim a few off for insurance.

Selling up to 70% seems a bit much, but I do believe some WO OGs are willing to sell that high of a percentage for a variety of individualized reasons which may or may not be well thought out, except thinking or hoping to buy back lower.. which may or may not play out.

Ahem, NOT for 20K to 30k, but rather from [20-30K] to Whatever (50,60,100, 150, 333, 400K).
I am also very confident that if we "pop" to, say, 25K, then start correcting downwards, many WOers would sell at least a portion.
They would not want to bear a possibility of a second trip downwards. It would be hard to resist.
A similar situation played out in 2017 when we went to 1300, then corrected to 870 or so.
Lots of selling.

It may not matter too much, but I think that we have differing ways of spinning this whole matter in order to arrive at our conclusion.

Personally, I recall that there was a whole hell of a lot of hype about how many folks would be selling in the $900 to $1,500 price arena, but in the end, we largely went through that price arena like a hot knife going though butter, in spite of the mucho hype about the selling that would take place.   Sure, in January 2017 we passed above $1k and in March 2017, we revisited sub $1k like you said, but in my thinking there continued to be way more hype about down than was able to be such sustained...l which is likely going to be similar this time around too... which is a lot of dumbies and weak hands are going to be shook out of their coins in that price arena... but the vast majority of the more experienced HODLers are not likely to sell many, if any, coins around that area.. and won't be shook from their coins, inspite of the then anticipated hype... and I doubt that there is going to be fear about revisiting low prices - like the nonsense that Vinny lingham was spouting out in March 2017... which did not play out, even though some gullible folks listened to him and sold their coins.

I probably agree with 90% of the above. Vinny did cause much selling, didn't he? Well, nobody knew back then if he is spouting nonsense or really had an insight. Only later we knew that it was the former.

He seemed to have a decent amount of credibility back then, so even if he did not cause selling he could have contributed to failure to buy as well.  So, yeah, he was later shown to be full of hyperbole.


Personally, my dream scenario would be a situation where btc literally follows the S/F graph. Sharp up, then quasi-stable for years. It's the best for slowly "skimming". Last time it was just too fast on both slopes.

I doubt that any of us longer term  followers of bitcoin  should reasonably expect that bitcoin would all of a sudden become quasi-stable.

Of course, it becomes more difficult and expensive to manipulate any asset as it grows in value, and since the players are getting BIGGER too, the incentives to manipulate bitcoin, or to exacerbate momentum up or down beyond any reasonable expectations remains present in bitcoin....

So, in the end, it seems to me that the most probable thing that we can expect in bitcoin is ongoing volatility for a decent number of years.... likely 10 years, and likely more, and accordingly, since we have a high expectation that decently high volatility will continue to take place in bitcoin, we should attempt to plan for such volatility that seems almost inevitable and therefore to be at least one step ahead of others who are hoping or even trying to assert that quasi-stability is starting to exist in bitcoin when in reality such quasi-stability would be a temporary appearance, at best.

By the way, I am not saying that I want BTC volatility, but bitcoin gives two ratts' asses about what I want, so I am merely attempting to describe a situation that exists, rather than what I would prefer.
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