Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[infofront]

Going........................................
$8,058

It's beem 146 days since we were close to $14k and we are now $6.5k+ down.

WTF?  I have not seen anything close to $6.5k, yet, except for a bunch of dumbass naysayers asserting that such BTC prices are inevitable... which most of us, here, should realize that inevitability is not really in BTC vocabulary, unless you are referring to a kind of likely ongoing adoption that inevitably results in upwards BTC price pressures, due to scarcity.. blah blah blah.

Masterluc's chart from nearly one year ago showed the price dipping to about the $6,500 level around this time, as a sort of final capitulation before the rocket takes off.

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[xhomerx10]

Hey Homer, will you be making a hat for the art entry?  

^ + 1000!

Yeah, homer caps have been probably the single most important artistic action in BTCT ever! It has even transpired off WO frontiers to many other members not regular here.

Homer should make an entry for sure!

I wanted to make an art design with the hat gallery, but...
WO hats are part of Bitcointalk, if the hat gallery can help you, it's at your disposal.
Go ahead xhomerx10 will surprise us.

 Thank you guys, I appreciate the praise and the encouragement.  I've been rather busy lately though and I'm not sure I'll have the time to make something hat-related before the contest deadline.  I'm waiting for some inspiration from the muses but lately, I've only been visited by Melpomene. 

I've made a presentation with all the hats, I know it's not a spectacular design , but all the hats are there.
We had to be all the WO,s present in the "10th anniversary art contest".

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5193860.msg53122427#msg53122427

 Thank you VB1001 - that is beautiful.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Masterluc's chart from nearly one year ago showed the price dipping to about the $6,500 level around this time, as a sort of final capitulation before the rocket takes off.

This!!

We are not far.

[VB1001]

The rocket takes off sooner or later, those who are worried about current prices, do not have to look at prices, live life, drink, eat, fuck and enjoy.

For my part, hodl and if it goes down, I'll buy a little more.

[JayJuanGee]

Going........................................
$8,058

It's beem 146 days since we were close to $14k and we are now $6.5k+ down.

WTF?  I have not seen anything close to $6.5k, yet, except for a bunch of dumbass naysayers asserting that such BTC prices are inevitable... which most of us, here, should realize that inevitability is not really in BTC vocabulary, unless you are referring to a kind of likely ongoing adoption that inevitably results in upwards BTC price pressures, due to scarcity.. blah blah blah.

Masterluc's chart from nearly one year ago showed the price dipping to about the $6,500 level around this time, as a sort of final capitulation before the rocket takes off.

Yeah, but do you really believe that anyone, whether Masterluc or anyone else, really knows much of anything about the BTC price one year in advance?    Yeah, they might be able to provide some probabilities of X, Y or Z happening, and alternative theories of A, B or C happening, but in the end, those are probabilities that may or may not play out.  AmiNOTrite?

Sure, Masterluc has reached a kind of sorcerer status within parts of the BTC community (to the extent that there is any BTC community) because of some of his earlier BTC price predictions had come true, but so fucking what?

Shouldn't we be taking these kinds of proclamations (whether Masterluck or anyone else) with a decently large grain of salt, and shouldn't we be attempting to assess the extent to which overall factors still exist a year later and whether some factors might have changed in the interim and shouldn't we also be attempting to assess that the BTC market frequently will be purposefully manipulated opposite of what peeps expect it to do, especially in the short term, which can cause a very large amount of additional profits from those engaging and able to carry out such short term manipulations (even if they might not be able to sustain such manipulations over a longer period, the manipulations in themselves could sometimes have some kind of medium term impact in BTC price direction or even BTC price stickiness).

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

If you choose to mix your on-line and your personal life then that is a choice that you make, and surely you have discretion regarding how you want to do it.

Still there are opsec issues, and there are a decently large number of folks who prefer not to roll like that... and maybe sooner or later, these real life encounters are going to cause a decently large number of the encounters to become public faces in the bitcoin space, whether initially wanted to be the case or not.  

If you are willing to take chances that you might become a publicly known person in the space, then of course, you can do that and many people prefer NOT to have such a life, even though there are a lot of publicly known people in the bitcoin space, and they likely have decent lives and they may or may not have intended to go down such a road... Actually, there are people who started out having an online persona that later became public, and whether they are happy about it or not, frequently it will be harder to undo something like that than to do it.  

So all good and fun if several of you want to juggle with these chainsaws, and it is all fun and games until someone's eye gets poked out.

So, even though you have a preference to potentially go public or potentially screw up your opsec, stop trying to suggest that everyone should be making the same kinds of opsec decisions, because that is pure irresponsible to be suggesting such norms, when the world does not work like that, especially in a space in which there could be decently high risks to screwing up OPsec in unwitting ways and NOT properly personally assessing some of the negative consequences of either purposefully or accidentally creating Opsec holes.

But then again.... people have met me, but who of my team did they met with @JJG??  

Does it matter?  Are you attempting to suggest that there is more validity to coming out as either a public person or a quasi-public person? Are you trying to suggest that members or lesser if they choose to attempt to exercise meaningful Opsec?  

Get real, and again, it is a bit irritating if you are trying to suggest that your chosen level of Opsec (or lacking thereof, or choices to share your relative lack of opsec) is preferable, merely because you believe that you are getting value from it and other peeps that you met in real life that happen to be WO members are also perceiving themselves to getting value from these kinds of mixing the meat space engagement decisions.

Exactly! Some of us may be hoDLing a decent amount of coins and/or may not want to be identifiably labelled as hoDLers. No matter how strong our passphrases are, you can be absolutely certain that a $5 wrench in the right hands can unlock our wallets. And I sure wouldn't want to be on the receiving end of that wrench...



It's for the exact same reason that I would never publicly (IRL) show off my coin stash. Even wearing clothing implying that you HoDL BTC may one day be an extremely dangerous thing to do. And if you do it today, some bad guys may remember you... Imagine yourself going out wearing a "Just HoDL it!" T-shirt when 1 BTC = $1m... To me it's not bravery, not even arrogance, it's just plain stupidity.

Some relevant news: https://www.ccn.com/turkish-police-bust-bitcoin-extortionists-who-netted-3-54-million-from-victims/

[Paashaas]

Fidelity received permission to offer bitcoin trading and storage services.



https://medium.com/@FidelityDigitalAssets/enabling-institutions-to-access-a-new-medium-for-assets-b9d8329c8766

[makrospex]

In that regard, the alleged manipulators might have to change sides when the BTC price starts moving against them in order to attempt to recuperate their losses in the opposite direction of their original intended manipulation, so would those kinds of behaviors and dynamics be fairly characterized as manipulation or just reasonable and expected dynamics of a relatively small free market?

Yes, they would have to, if these manipulators actually exist.
At least the appeal - or eventuality - that such exist and do successfully more or less willingly or unwillingly, significantly manipulate prices, the trust into bitcoin as an investment would likely decrease, mostly by (future) retail customers.

I am not sure whether we are arguing about semantics or merely just some amount of variation in regards to how we speculate about the manipulation going on or the possible impact of such purported manipulation.

There might be some BTC/market/price dynamics that we actually agree upon, and then there would be questions regarding how we might characterize those dynamics, and their effects on either the market or perceptions of the market.

Imo, it's a question of the viewpoint. We could call any buy/sell operation that ultimately has the goal to change market value, for the very own advantage, manipulation. Whereas (pure) market dynamics would be just mathematical outcome of the sum of all trading moves, over time.
Intention to impact the price, for whatever reason, would be clearly manipulation, from my point of view.

Shouldn't we already agree that there are going to be whale players who are going to want to manipulate bitcoin down as much as they can and for as long as they can, and they are going to use actual physical manipulations such as dumping coins, and if they can they are going to attempt to engage in dirty tactics such as fractional reserves and whatever they can to time their dumpenings and they are going to use information or misinformation campaigns in order to attempt to create negative impressions about bitcoin, but in the end, how far and for how long are they going to be able to be successful in keeping the BTC price down.

Not only for the purpose of keeping down, but to enrich themselves by triggering downtrends by hitting stop-loss-orders, breaking "support lines", to accumulate more coins at lower prices, to extend this dirty play, for whatever reason(s).
The projection would be: What if i am a whale and be evil, what would i do?

Those fucks tried and tried and tried to keep BTC prices below $500, but they lost control.  Same is true at other BTC price points, so what makes you believe that they are going to be any more successful this time?  Are they going to be able to get BTC prices to go below $3,122?  The odds seem quite highly against them, so who the fuck cares if they are able to drag out this particular correction for months and months and months, because in the end, they are going to have to give in and allow or chase BTC's price up.

I don't believe that they are going to be more successful, but at least successful. I was raised to be good, not to be evil, annoying, selfish or whatever Karma wouldn't like. That's why i condemn any of the opposite. You're right. In the long run it doesn't make a difference to bitcoin at all, but there are victims, and i don't like that.

I have no doubts that there are BIG ASS players who can keep BTC's price down further and for longer than reasonable or rational, but they are also ONLY likely to be able to achieve their objectives for so long, and that is likely what happened in late 2015 when they could no longer keep BTC's price down.  Same could happen this time.  If they can get BTC's price to go below $3,122 then there are going to be a lot of jaded folks, but what the fuck are HODLers like us going to do at those price points?  Hopefully we are buying rather than selling, but anyhow, let them manipulate and try to get the price to go down.  That is what we expect them to attempt to do, but BTC prices are still way the fuck higher than they were a few years ago, and that is surely not because whale manipulators wanted BTC's prices to be in these current $8k-ish territories.  If it was up to them, we would still be below $500. 

In contrast, i mostly believe that they drag down overall market sentiments, watch prices go down and use their liquidated Fiat to rebuy at lower prices, to milk off some money and level up their dirty game over time.

[serveria.com]

Some relevant news: https://www.ccn.com/turkish-police-bust-bitcoin-extortionists-who-netted-3-54-million-from-victims/

OMG! That is some crazy shit! 

[HairyMaclairy]

Easy peasy lemon squeezy

What happens when if it goes below that bottom line?  

Feary teary lemon dreary?

Limes.  Big lime volume.  

[makrospex]

[...]

If you choose to mix your on-line and your personal life then that is a choice that you make, and surely you have discretion regarding how you want to do it.

Still there are opsec issues, and there are a decently large number of folks who prefer not to roll like that... and maybe sooner or later, these real life encounters are going to cause a decently large number of the encounters to become public faces in the bitcoin space, whether initially wanted to be the case or not.  

If you are willing to take chances that you might become a publicly known person in the space, then of course, you can do that and many people prefer NOT to have such a life, even though there are a lot of publicly known people in the bitcoin space, and they likely have decent lives and they may or may not have intended to go down such a road... Actually, there are people who started out having an online persona that later became public, and whether they are happy about it or not, frequently it will be harder to undo something like that than to do it.  

So all good and fun if several of you want to juggle with these chainsaws, and it is all fun and games until someone's eye gets poked out.

So, even though you have a preference to potentially go public or potentially screw up your opsec, stop trying to suggest that everyone should be making the same kinds of opsec decisions, because that is pure irresponsible to be suggesting such norms, when the world does not work like that, especially in a space in which there could be decently high risks to screwing up OPsec in unwitting ways and NOT properly personally assessing some of the negative consequences of either purposefully or accidentally creating Opsec holes.

But then again.... people have met me, but who of my team did they met with @JJG??  

Does it matter?  Are you attempting to suggest that there is more validity to coming out as either a public person or a quasi-public person? Are you trying to suggest that members or lesser if they choose to attempt to exercise meaningful Opsec?  

Get real, and again, it is a bit irritating if you are trying to suggest that your chosen level of Opsec (or lacking thereof, or choices to share your relative lack of opsec) is preferable, merely because you believe that you are getting value from it and other peeps that you met in real life that happen to be WO members are also perceiving themselves to getting value from these kinds of mixing the meat space engagement decisions.

Exactly! Some of us may be hoDLing a decent amount of coins and/or may not want to be identifiably labelled as hoDLers. No matter how strong our passphrases are, you can be absolutely certain that a $5 wrench in the right hands can unlock your wallets. And I sure wouldn't want to be on the receiving end of that wrench...



It's for the exact same reason that I would never publicly (IRL) show off my coin stash. Even wearing clothing implying that you HoDL BTC may one day be an extremely dangerous thing to do. And if you do it today, some bad guys may remember you... Imagine yourself going out wearing a "Just HoDL it!" T-shirt when 1 BTC = $1m... To me it's not bravery, not even arrogance, it's just plain stupidity.

Some relevant news: https://www.ccn.com/turkish-police-bust-bitcoin-extortionists-who-netted-3-54-million-from-victims/

Totally understandable.
Recently group of people were jailed in my country for home invasion on a crypto trader. They said to harm his wife and daughter (9 months old) if he doesn't give them access to his crypto exchange accounts. However, they acted and dressed like employees of a parcel delivery service and he let them in.
You guys, my wife and one of my children know that i'm in crypto. I wouldn't tell anybody, but i remind people of the opportunity to buy bitcoin and rarely even tell them that that's what i would do. I would never go out there and feel like a better person because i am hodling and act any like that. People doing that for their ego maybe even deserve the wrench, but that's beyond my "personal judgement boundaries".

Sorry, today i'm really exhausted and my english semantics module seems to be buggy.
Time to let mary j. go over me and put me into early hodlsleep (c)micg.

[HairyMaclairy]

Possible choppy waters ahead. Trade with caution.


https://twitter.com/whalecalls

I have to admit first, that I am not a trader and I don't understand everything completely. Here are my questions and thoughts related to your frequent posts of bitmex liquidations. What is the relation between bitmex and the price of Bitcoin? In particular, why do you think that a liquidation of a long position precedes a dump in the price (which is implied by your post)? As far as I know, Bitmex is a derivate exchange and some contracts are cash settled, others physically, but I have no clue what portion is each. On the other hand, if there is an option for short/long positions involving real bitcoins that have to be sold/bought to cover/close the positions on the major exchanges like bitfinex and binance (I think they have their own short/long game looking at https://blockchainwhispers.com/bitmex-position-calculator/#), this may affect the price. But I don't see why the traders on the major exchanges will be influenced by what is going on on CME, bakkt, bitmex, etc. These futures and leverage tradings are like roulette - the player vs the house. Unless some manipulator dumps first on bitstamp, coinbase and kraken (which form the price index of Bitmex), I don't see any other connection with the price. And in that case, first is the pump or dump, then the closing of long/short positions, not the reverse. Or I miss something?

Arbitrage. 

You can arbitrage positions between futures and physical.

[El duderino_]

it's just plain stupidity.

Sooooo?? What about a tattoo? How stupid do you label me? For having a rollercoaster?

To promote or believe and exploit .... why not ...

I do agree nobody should talk about holdings or whatever, and especially not those with a decent amount, but why wouldn’t the low-ballers be meeting up

[xhomerx10]

[...]

If you choose to mix your on-line and your personal life then that is a choice that you make, and surely you have discretion regarding how you want to do it.

Still there are opsec issues, and there are a decently large number of folks who prefer not to roll like that... and maybe sooner or later, these real life encounters are going to cause a decently large number of the encounters to become public faces in the bitcoin space, whether initially wanted to be the case or not.  

If you are willing to take chances that you might become a publicly known person in the space, then of course, you can do that and many people prefer NOT to have such a life, even though there are a lot of publicly known people in the bitcoin space, and they likely have decent lives and they may or may not have intended to go down such a road... Actually, there are people who started out having an online persona that later became public, and whether they are happy about it or not, frequently it will be harder to undo something like that than to do it.  

So all good and fun if several of you want to juggle with these chainsaws, and it is all fun and games until someone's eye gets poked out.

So, even though you have a preference to potentially go public or potentially screw up your opsec, stop trying to suggest that everyone should be making the same kinds of opsec decisions, because that is pure irresponsible to be suggesting such norms, when the world does not work like that, especially in a space in which there could be decently high risks to screwing up OPsec in unwitting ways and NOT properly personally assessing some of the negative consequences of either purposefully or accidentally creating Opsec holes.

But then again.... people have met me, but who of my team did they met with @JJG??  

Does it matter?  Are you attempting to suggest that there is more validity to coming out as either a public person or a quasi-public person? Are you trying to suggest that members or lesser if they choose to attempt to exercise meaningful Opsec?  

Get real, and again, it is a bit irritating if you are trying to suggest that your chosen level of Opsec (or lacking thereof, or choices to share your relative lack of opsec) is preferable, merely because you believe that you are getting value from it and other peeps that you met in real life that happen to be WO members are also perceiving themselves to getting value from these kinds of mixing the meat space engagement decisions.

Exactly! Some of us may be hoDLing a decent amount of coins and/or may not want to be identifiably labelled as hoDLers. No matter how strong our passphrases are, you can be absolutely certain that a $5 wrench in the right hands can unlock our wallets. And I sure wouldn't want to be on the receiving end of that wrench...



It's for the exact same reason that I would never publicly (IRL) show off my coin stash. Even wearing clothing implying that you HoDL BTC may one day be an extremely dangerous thing to do. And if you do it today, some bad guys may remember you... Imagine yourself going out wearing a "Just HoDL it!" T-shirt when 1 BTC = $1m... To me it's not bravery, not even arrogance, it's just plain stupidity.

Some relevant news: https://www.ccn.com/turkish-police-bust-bitcoin-extortionists-who-netted-3-54-million-from-victims/

 IMO it's not much different than "wearing" a nice home/car/watch.  Location is everything.  Stay out of Turkey, anywhere in Africa would also be off my list as well as most eastern European countries and all of Russia, most if not all of the Phillipines... here's a map



 If it isn't green or yellow, it isn't safe to have nice things especially if you aren't familiar with the area.  I'll make up a little niche map later for the yellow areas.  Situational Awareness is key.
I need my Bitcoin toque!

[Raja_MBZ]

Caps of the people who posted in this thread in the last 15 days:



It's a part of my art; can't afford to have more clarity/size in the image because there are opsec resolution issues.

[infofront]

So, $100K party in Somalia?

[AlcoHoDL]

it's just plain stupidity.

Sooooo?? What about a tattoo? How stupid do you label me? For having a rollercoaster?

To promote or believe and exploit .... why not ...

I do agree nobody should talk about holdings or whatever, and especially not those with a decent amount, but why wouldn’t the low-ballers be meeting up

You can promote it, I also do it in cases where I know or trust my audience. Hell, I even gave a lecture about it to my students. But I never told anyone (well, just a select few) how many coins I have. I do it like Andreas Antonopoulos who has repeatedly said he doesn't hold any coins.

I just wanted to stress the obvious here: which is to never boast and show off your stash. You don't need to. I can understand the tattoo because I think you are a young guy that's excited about crypto and you want to tell the world about it. That's a nice thing, that's a healthy thing, and everyone should promote and advertise something that's so powerful and revolutionary as Bitcoin. Except that you must take into account that when lots of money is involved the real world can be very, very nasty and ugly and corrupt and those of us who advertise they are involved in crypto and hoDL coins may become targets. And this is expected to intensify as the fiat value of BTC keeps increasing. Back in 2015 I didn't care about this. But when we reached 4 digits things got too serious to ignore.

It's just common sense, and no, I don't think you're stupid. Just a very excited, nice, cool guy.

https://blog.trezor.io/keep-quiet-about-your-coins-crypto-cryptocurrencies-privacy-b44ad6d6c9d1

[Raja_MBZ]

You sure Mr. Xi is a good guy?

[Raja_MBZ]

So, $100K party in Somalia?

I'm ready

[xhomerx10]

You sure Mr. Xi is a good guy?

 I tried to make china orange.  Just to be sure, avoid China with your bling hangin' out.