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Question: Price Target for Nov. 30, 2024:
<$75K - 4 (2.8%)
$75K to $80K - 1 (0.7%)
$80K to $85K - 2 (1.4%)
$85K to $90K - 10 (7%)
$90K to $95K - 15 (10.6%)
$95K to $100K - 28 (19.7%)
>$100K - 82 (57.7%)
Total Voters: 142

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26728896 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
VB1001
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March 02, 2020, 04:29:26 PM
Merited by mindrust (2)

BTCMILLIONAIRE

Welcome back Cool
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March 02, 2020, 04:34:35 PM
Merited by mindrust (2)

BTCMILLIONAIRE

Welcome back Cool
Thanks!
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March 02, 2020, 04:53:47 PM
Merited by mindrust (2)

a sea of green in the alts

risk on
Elwar
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March 02, 2020, 04:59:23 PM
Merited by mindrust (2)

The lead up to the halving is usually volatile. The price will drop again once any major publication posts the theory that at halving the miners will all stop mining (along with the implications of what happens to Bitcoin then).

Just enough people will be worried enough to sell bringing the price down yet again.

The lower the better to launch the price rise at halving, when mining continues at its normal pace.


This time around I am not sure how this Corona virus will affect the price. It may turn into a hedge, the Fed will certainly pump as much as they can which helps.

The US is finally getting cases of people affected. China started in November and by January there was full panic. US having first deaths in March could mean full panic mode in May just as the halving happens.

If the mining panic drives the price down, people may not see it as a safe haven during the crisis.

It could either be a perfect storm for a big bitcoin price or the timing counters sentiment such that it is just a normal rise starting at halving.

I certainly went out and stocked up on enough food for about a month. Fortunately I am far from Panama City and there are no reported cases here yet.
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March 02, 2020, 05:05:56 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Is the trajectory constant or not? You are employing a loose definition of the word "constant" to make your case here. Within the "random deviations from the trajectory" could exist several other trajectories, depending on what span of time we're talking about. Within the cluster of those sub-trajectories exists risk if you are a shorter-term trader.

You didn't even know the trajectory was upward until after it had taken place, so to say it was a "risk free" investment is a statement made after the fact, and basically meaningless. Its like making a prediction on 2015's price of bitcoin in 2020. Sure, after the fact, we can say that the overall trajectory was up, and there existed a lot of volatility in the middle. But nobody knew it was a risk-free investment in 2015.
I'm starting to feel like you're trolling me now. What part about "a constant trajectory around which the price oscillates" do you not understand?

Not even going to address the rest of the post until we've established why you refuse to understand this and keep repeating the same wrong thing over and over even when it's pointed out to you.

"Volatility, in essence, is nothing but a random oscillation around a potentially unknown trajectory."
You're talking about a moving average
I am not talking about any moving averages. You could compute them for my example, but they're not relevant to the argument.

Your argument was that volatility is equivalent to risk, which is generally wrong. Neither contains much, if any, information about the other.

To show to you that this is not the case I've tried to give you examples of assets that directly contradict your assertion.

In the 'basket of all stocks' you have no risk in the long-term, because your expected loss (= risk) is strictly negative and hence your expected return is strictly positive, because the realized total return converges towards 10% p.a. (in the case of the US stock market) over time.
Despite that, the asset itself has been volatile. Hence, volatility does not imply anything about risk nor vice versa. The only thing that matters for risk is your strategy and nothing else.

You can have a perpetually flat asset with high risk, or you can have highly volatile assets without any risk (Bitcoin - which does not mean that you are guaranteed to make money).

You can get volatility and risk in any combination and neither implies the other.

You are probably conflating risk and actual returns. Risk is a statistical measure, e.g. the expected loss of a strategy, asset or portfolio.
Just like the expected value of a dice roll is 3.5 = 1/6 times sum of all potential results.
With risk the results are potential price trajectories in the market and the probabilities are obviously different and depend on all sorts of parameters.
Realized returns on the other hand are what you end up with in reality, and while risk can give you an idea of a region that you'll land in, it'll never tell you what will really happen for individual 'games'.


Here's another attempt to make the point clear.
Assume you have volatility but it's always the same. Basically, your price follows a 100% predictable pattern no matter how many people buy or sell. In that case you have volatility, but 100% insight and hence can generate profits without any risk whatsoever.
Obviously this isn't going to happen in real markets (though it does in many games), but it should be sufficiently illustrative to show that volatility and risk aren't related.
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March 02, 2020, 05:07:51 PM
Merited by gentlemand (1), psycodad (1), bkbirge (1)

Just texted with a friend, the groceries in Seattle got wiped out yesterday.  Silly normals, why pay for food when you can just split the skulls of your neighbors and feast on the tasty goo inside?
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March 02, 2020, 05:14:58 PM
Merited by bkbirge (1)

lightfoot
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March 02, 2020, 05:15:42 PM

Just texted with a friend, the groceries in Seattle got wiped out yesterday.  Silly normals, why pay for food when you can just split the skulls of your neighbors and feast on the tasty goo inside?

See, buy some extra groceries, 2-3 weeks is all you need.

Oh and measure your neighbors and rank for caloric content. Easy peasy
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March 02, 2020, 05:17:10 PM

Not as nice as 5-dig, but I do like the 8888 looking price a lot on this particular Monday
Nicholas William Leeson's birthday was Tuesday last week. But it's still a nice number.
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March 02, 2020, 05:17:52 PM

Now we just need a solar storm and we already have the total reset.
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March 02, 2020, 05:33:01 PM

Just texted with a friend, the groceries in Seattle got wiped out yesterday.  Silly normals, why pay for food when you can just split the skulls of your neighbors and feast on the tasty goo inside?

An ideal post for gentlemand to merit  Cheesy

Actually thought it would be his writing   Cheesy
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March 02, 2020, 05:38:21 PM



who's jam would this be
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March 02, 2020, 05:39:56 PM



who's jam would this be
Depends on how good/bad it would be for my back.
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March 02, 2020, 05:41:05 PM



who's jam would this be
Someone with a very sore neck.
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March 02, 2020, 05:44:05 PM



who's jam would this be

If that is a bookshelf full of hand lotion then it is ideal for a good many people.
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March 02, 2020, 06:19:11 PM

Just texted with a friend, the groceries in Seattle got wiped out yesterday.  Silly normals, why pay for food when you can just split the skulls of your neighbors and feast on the tasty goo inside?

I'll have mine sunny side up please.
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March 02, 2020, 06:22:53 PM
Last edit: March 02, 2020, 08:11:09 PM by Arriemoller

Just for fun I ordered two solar powered lights , you know, the kind you put next to the door, whatever they are called in English, from Wish on the 18th of February.
Last time i ordered from wish was in October and it took two to three months to get the stuff delivered.
Now it seems like it's gonna take 15 days.
It's in Halmstad today, so most likely in my mailbox by tomorrow.
Fastest delivery ever from Wish.
(the delivery time given was May 4)


2020-03-02 14:00
HALMSTAD - SWEDEN, delivery to local courier

2020-03-01 13:40
AMSTERDAM - NETHERLANDS, Shipment in transit by truck

2020-02-27 14:40
AMSTERDAM - NETHERLANDS, Custom clearance completed

2020-02-25 06:22
AMSTERDAM - NETHERLANDS, Arrived at AIRPORT of Destination,Custom clearance in processing.

2020-02-24 00:46
HONG KONG - CHINA, Departure from airport to destination country

2020-02-22 11:30
SHENZHEN, Departed Facility In processing center

2020-02-22 04:26
SHENZHEN, Shipment has been processed in operational center

2020-02-21 18:56
SHENZHEN, Arrived at Sort Facility SHENZHEN

2020-02-19 16:36
Shipment information received
OutOfMemory
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March 02, 2020, 06:24:22 PM

The lead up to the halving is usually volatile. The price will drop again once any major publication posts the theory that at halving the miners will all stop mining (along with the implications of what happens to Bitcoin then).

Just enough people will be worried enough to sell bringing the price down yet again.

The lower the better to launch the price rise at halving, when mining continues at its normal pace.


This time around I am not sure how this Corona virus will affect the price. It may turn into a hedge, the Fed will certainly pump as much as they can which helps.

The US is finally getting cases of people affected. China started in November and by January there was full panic. US having first deaths in March could mean full panic mode in May just as the halving happens.

If the mining panic drives the price down, people may not see it as a safe haven during the crisis.

It could either be a perfect storm for a big bitcoin price or the timing counters sentiment such that it is just a normal rise starting at halving.

I certainly went out and stocked up on enough food for about a month. Fortunately I am far from Panama City and there are no reported cases here yet.

Isn't China/Asia the region behind the most bitcoin volume? I think we already saw the impact, i suggest a substantial drop in the stock market is yet to come, at latest when half of the US and EU will have to stay at home for collective self-quarantine. The halvening will most likely unfold it's rising potential a while after it has taken place,as it was before. Probably there will also be some additional action in advance, because of anticipation.

But that's uhm... just my opinion, man  Grin
El duderino_
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March 02, 2020, 06:25:45 PM



Nice
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March 02, 2020, 06:26:48 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), AlcoHoDL (1), bkbirge (1)

Dedicated to all WO electro-synth fans:

Jean-Michel Jarre - Oxygene, Pt. 17

Getting in the mood for what's coming...

Wow!

Jean-Michel Jarre - Fourth Rendez-Vous
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