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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 62

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26365354 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Cryptotourist
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March 03, 2020, 12:05:59 AM

Too much information.

But but, it's in our DNA to pass info along the blockchain. Grin

#

Talking about AI's, where the fuck is JJG?
He's already messing up WO statistics.

I have a bad bad feeling that Lambie send him as a reconciliation gift, an all inclusive two week holiday to Wuhan.  Tongue
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March 03, 2020, 12:07:39 AM
Last edit: March 03, 2020, 12:40:05 AM by Millionero

Just texted with a friend, the groceries in Seattle got wiped out yesterday.  Silly normals, why pay for food when you can just split the skulls of your neighbors and feast on the tasty goo inside?

I'll have mine sunny side up please.

Eggs ’n’ brains is a breakfast meal consisting of pork brains (or those of another mammal) and scrambled eggs

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eggs_and_brains

I remember ordering brains and eggs at a diner in Kansas City.
My exact words were, "I'll have scrambled brains."
Truer words were never spoken.
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March 03, 2020, 12:08:00 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)

Daily candle close seems to be signalling hammer reversal:



Elwar
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March 03, 2020, 12:12:46 AM

Why are people stocking up on food anyway? this is not that kind of event. A solar storm or EMP that knocks out all electronics would be that kind of event.

It's not like the government would leave you to starve to death if you are quarantined, either the military would organize handing out of food or they would organize some kind of mobile groceries van or something like that.
It would make sense to have food for a couple of days before everything gets organized, but that's all.

I mean if we can get food and water to people and areas that are totally snowed in in the winter, I think we can handle this.

I live about 2.5 hours from the closest "Costco" type of store. We usually get supplies for a few weeks at a time when we are there so this time we just got a bit extra just in case.

The thoughts being that if things start getting bad people will flood the grocery stores. There is not much food grown in Panama so it is almost all imported (strangely enough, people always poo pooed the fact that our small 6 meter wide seastead did not produce all of the food we need while full nations do not produce food). If they are importing it from places that get locked down or whichever, then food supply runs low.

Fortunately there is fruit growing on the trees and we bought fishing supplies. So we bought food that goes well with fish and fruit.

If things get really bad we jump on a sailboat and go to the ocean.

Speaking of...the next video in "The First Seasteaders" series is out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OovkeOuZsqU
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March 03, 2020, 12:15:19 AM



Looks like Milla Jovovich.

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March 03, 2020, 12:38:41 AM

Twenty-one years old,
her scent is of mixed flowers,
who's your daddy?


#haiku



I'm not getting it... I might have missed some old post this one relates to. What's that about? Is it by any chance connected to your proud achievement of a double bean flick today?

The haiku itself is beautiful. Pity for the messed up syllable count.
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March 03, 2020, 12:42:11 AM
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Hello bitcoin!

Quote
Dirty banknotes may be spreading the coronavirus, World Health Organisation warns

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/02/exclusive-dirty-banknotes-may-spreading-coronavirus-world-health/
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March 03, 2020, 12:52:42 AM
Last edit: September 10, 2023, 01:57:05 PM by dragonvslinux
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)

Daily candle close seems to be signalling hammer reversal:





Technically it was a near perfect gravestone doji, but bullish none the less as it was at the lows of a sell off  Wink



Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doji.asp

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March 03, 2020, 01:25:00 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

But but, it's in our DNA to pass info along the blockchain. Grin

Talking about AI's, where the fuck is JJG?
He's already messing up WO statistics.



maybe he hooked up with that other AI "Mike"?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Moon_Is_a_Harsh_Mistress

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March 03, 2020, 02:53:32 AM

I just woke up to some of my buy orders getting filled. Here is a fractal that may play out. I am not expected a V bottom in any case.



This chart I posted weeks ago has Bitcoin bottoming next week( who knows really ). I need to update the chart, the movement is rhyming with the previous fractal. The big green line is the phase 2 trend line around 7k.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Looks like it followed the last fractal with some exaggerated moves. Here is where we are now.
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March 03, 2020, 03:04:32 AM

via Imgflip Meme Generator
vapourminer
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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March 03, 2020, 03:14:12 AM

Why are people stocking up on food anyway? this is not that kind of event. A solar storm or EMP that knocks out all electronics would be that kind of event.

It's not like the government would leave you to starve to death if you are quarantined, either the military would organize handing out of food or they would organize some kind of mobile groceries van or something like that.
It would make sense to have food for a couple of days before everything gets organized, but that's all.

I mean if we can get food and water to people and areas that are totally snowed in in the winter, I think we can handle this.

government to the rescue? where do you live?

the last couple "hit the fan disaster" times that i went through worked fairly well for us, just minor issues that dry runs didnt catch (poor testing on my part).

ive since tweaked a bit and also factored in a few more things, as this time is a bit different in some aspects.

BTW not a doomsday prepper or anything , just my pappy learned me some things.

EDIT: the one that my dad said that stuck most was "if you dont have it, you dont have it."

odd as that may read

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March 03, 2020, 03:35:13 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

looks like hoarding, she only needs one mask.
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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March 03, 2020, 03:55:04 AM

just tossed the last bits of reserves at corn. seems as good a time as any.

close enough for me anyway. if it goes down i will restock the reserves from somewhere.
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March 03, 2020, 03:56:59 AM

looks like hoarding, she only needs one mask.

but i want all four. im sure shes a giving person.
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March 03, 2020, 04:25:35 AM

Risk is a statistical measure, e.g. the expected loss of a strategy, asset or portfolio.

Not quite. Its the probability that a gain or a loss will differ significantly from what is expected.
Look, I hate to be that guy, but I've got a PhD in Mathematical Statistics. This stuff is my bread and butter. If you've got questions I'll be happy to try and answer them. But I'm not going to argue about basic definitions.

Oh great, the 'ol "appeal to authority." Out of all the logical fallacies I did not expect that one first.

The definition of risk in finance is and always has been the expected loss with regard to some measure, or in other words: the expected value (or integral) of some loss function that is defined by your strategy. This is not a probability, it's a value. A value which can be positive, negative or zero to indicate respectively the average loss, profit or no change over many repetitions of the same strategy.

Let's use a more definitive source:

Quote
Risk is defined in financial terms as the chance that an outcome or investment's actual gains will differ from an expected outcome or return. Risk includes the possibility of losing some or all of an original investment.

Okay, I'm willing to concede that they do not imply one another 100% of the time, but as a general rule of thumb, they do.
No, they do not. Risk exclusively a measure of your proposed strategy. Volatility is a market phenomenon that does not in any way depend on your strategy.

Volatility can be used as a measurement of risk, however incomplete it may be. I feel like you didn't even take a look at this link I posted earlier, which provides a good summary of volatility vs. risk:

Quote
Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. In most cases, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. Volatility is often measured as either the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index.
...
Volatile assets are often considered riskier than less volatile assets because the price is expected to be less predictable.
...
Volatility often refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk related to the size of changes in a security's value.

Yes, you are. The asset doesn't move perfectly fitted to a "constant trajectory," you said so yourself. A rocket moves at a "constant trajectory." Stocks don't - not even fictitious examples of stocks - unless they completely lack volatility. In your example, you can only be talking about the trajectory of a price as being defined by its moving average. If its not, its not "constant."
No, I'm still not talking about moving averages and you are still completely misrepresenting what I've said.

How so? It seems like you are altering the definition of the word "constant" to suit your purposes. A measurement which faces any sort of volatility cannot be constant. It can only be constant on average, not in its actual movement.

You can have a perpetually flat asset with high risk, or you can have highly volatile assets without any risk (Bitcoin - which does not mean that you are guaranteed to make money).

No, you can't. "Perpetually flat asset" implies zero volatility and zero risk. How do you lose money on something whose value never changes?
Yes, you can. You can have a company that doesn't ever grow, returns the same dividends and keeps the same asset value. Until an asteroid wipes it out of existence and reduces it to zero.

Every single asset on the planet faces this exact same risk. There is no chance of losing money in this example (outside of the same meteor event that could wipe out all investments), thus it is zero risk.

As I've already said, in finance the risk of a strategy (e.g. "buy Bitcoin") is the expected loss of that strategy. This is a statistical measure. And because Bitcoin's potential returns are so extreme this becomes an example of an asset with negative risk, e.g. expected returns, despite not guaranteeing any profit.

Okay. If that's the case, all I've really learned here is that your definition of risk is useless.
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March 03, 2020, 04:50:04 AM



Boomers are nocoiners. Except for Jimbo of course.
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March 03, 2020, 04:53:04 AM
Last edit: March 03, 2020, 05:27:22 AM by Paashaas

Coronavirus update:

- 90,927 confirmed cases including 3,123 deaths.

- Countries reporting first cases: Morocco, Latvia, Senegal, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Jordan, Portugal and Andorra.

- South Korean puts all government agencies on 24-hour emergency alert.

- Italian death toll climbs from 18 to 52 while total cases surpasses 2,000.

- Australian health officials are meeting today to consider additional measures to stop the spread of coronavirus, including a possible ban on large gatherings and asking people to work from home.

- New cases in Moscow, Brussels, Rome and New Delhi.

- Washington state reports 4 new cases and 3 new deaths in King County. New Hampshire, Santa Clara County, Georgia and Illinois reporting new cases.

- South Korea reports 600 new cases of coronavirus in the past 24-hours approaching 5,000.

- Tajikistan has informed airlines that it will deny entry to citizens of 35 countries due to coronavirus, including the U.S., the UK, China, Iran, and Japan.

- Lufthansa and KLM suspending flights to China.

- Nike E.U headquarter in The Netherlands closed.

- After Qatar MotoGP now Thailand MotoGP postponed.

- China has been ordering factories to leave the lights on to make them look busier from space and to boost electricity output in case foreigners start trying to use that as a GDP proxy while air pollution indicates there are no factories running.

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March 03, 2020, 05:23:57 AM
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March 03, 2020, 06:27:41 AM

Bullish developments in the last 24 hours for King Bitcoin.

With Pete and Amy dropping out of the race and along with Beto all endorsing Biden, Biden has moved up in betting markets to overtake Bernie as the front runner.


https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3633/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-presidential-nomination


Biden is more Bullish for King Bitcoin imo bc Bernie favors communism over capitalism and we have seen how harsh communist nations have been to Bitcoin.

Out of only 4 communist nations on the globe, two, China and Vietnam, have both banned Bitcoin for a means of payments. China has also banned its financial institutions from handling Bitcoin transactions.

A White House controlled by communist idealogues would likely be hostile to King Bitcoin. Biden is a centrist and would not rock the boat. He might be friendlier to Bitcoin than Trump even.

Could Bernie still win? Absolutely, but he did just go from a massively heavy favorite to a slight underdog and thats a big improvement.

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