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Question: Will we close Nov. at or above Plan B's posited minimum of $98K?
Yes - 42 (38.2%)
No - 68 (61.8%)
Total Voters: 110

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25490536 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (158 posts by 14 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Cryptotourist
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March 09, 2020, 10:27:24 AM



Gotta appreciate the irony. Grin
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March 09, 2020, 10:29:30 AM

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It's Saudis, not virus.
I agree and I hate to double post but the reply is simple.   The virus is a trigger not the cause or the body of the problem.   QE is an ongoing risk, OPEC of course is a fixed price system and subject to problems from that.   Excessive sovereign debts, deficits both fiscal and trade they all matter.     Even after all that its very unlikely cash gains year to year, UUP is the ticker for Dollar index and trades in about 4 hours.
  Business gains from cheaper oil, put it that way so imo dont be too negative in your outlook.   (also gold miners gain every time oil drops, a vast part of their costs is energy such that its a watched ratio USO:GLD or oil:gold)

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March 09, 2020, 10:36:06 AM

#bitcoin  S2F chart adjusted for today's "crash" ... nothing really happened, btc still spot on S2F track

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1236741267440259072?s=21
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March 09, 2020, 10:54:53 AM

#bitcoin  S2F chart adjusted for today's "crash" ... nothing really happened, btc still spot on S2F track

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1236741267440259072?s=21



According to this chart $100k may not happen before 2024. When you draw a big bowl it makes sense. Painful years ahead. :/ We are (very) lucky if we hit $100k in 2022.

Still don't think too much over this. In the upcoming years bitcoin might become useful in other ways. Imagine how useful it will be when the banks go bankrupt and don't allow people to withdraw money. Anything outside of the banking system will have much more value.
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March 09, 2020, 10:56:10 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (1)

Infection fatality(what percent of all infections lead to death) is the true mortality rate.
That's 12-50%. You are arguing against your own interests now.

Wrong. Only one sample exists where every member of a population was tested, regardless of symptoms and the death rate was less than 1 percent.

Case fatality is a different stat, it only measures documented cases. That means people that were tested bc they had symptoms or known exposure and tested positive. Govs have purposely tested as little as possible to keep the case number low. The actual population of infection is much larger so we dont know the infection fatality rate of any sample population except the Diamond Princess.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/07/upshot/how-deadly-is-coronavirus-what-we-know.html

"But current data allows scientists to measure only a crude statistic called the case fatality rate, which is based on reported cases of an illness. Eventually, they hope to have a more comprehensive number called the infection fatality rate, which includes everyone who is infected with the virus."

"Over the long term, epidemiologists often do a kind of blood testing of large numbers of people in a given community. By testing their immune systems, they can measure how many people have been exposed to a disease. That type of research is often the gold standard for getting a real infection rate and a better fatality rate, called the infection fatality rate"

Your constant fear peddling only works bc people are confused about the difference between two epidemiological terms, case fatality rate, and infection fatality rate. The former is crude and useful for fear mongering, the latter demonstrates this is mostly hype.

Whether you yourself can grasp the difference is of no concern to me. The newbs reading this will know the difference now and not be misled.

TLDR: Ibian is likely smart enough to know the difference between case fatality rate, a crude number that skews insanely high when govs refuse to test,  and infection fatality rate which really tells you how many people who get the disease die. Its just a game pretending not to get it at this point to attempt to get newbs to sell so his shorts make profit.  









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March 09, 2020, 10:59:08 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (1)

No need to act like panicking stock boyz who cry like babies at a 5 percent drop, Bitcoiners were built for big swings. Its all just noise on the way to 100k.

Yes we are definitely going to 100k and this current global rout will probably even increase the speed that we get there. Money printing on the way.

Maybe global pandemic and a lot of the hoopla and hype about that can allow for the economy to correct, to some extent without having to engage in money printing?  If the global economy goes through a major correction, then it is merely blamed on a pandemic, and at the same time, there is an ability to reign in bullshit irresponsibilities in regards to various fiats, no?  Why does global pandemic automatically result in more currency printing when allowing a crash can actually accomplish similar kinds of corrective mechanisms that are actually needed in terms of allowing bubbles to play themselves out in free market kinds of ways, no?

I am not saying that bitcoin still would not do well in this situation, but I doubt that such a situation of a major correction in the fiat market (which seems to be far over due) automatically results in more printing, especially if there are many BIG players that realize that the overexuberance in money printing is way out of hand, anyhow.

It is not like everyone in the regular fiat world is stupid in terms of engaging in various strategies to attempt to continue to prop matters up and to allow some corrections to play themselves out, especially if such corrections are merely born by poor people, even though the status quo power players might get stuck in policies that are hard to get out of on a quite frequent basis.

For central banks, a correction is fine so long as credit (debt) is still being created by the private banks. If credit shrinks instead and hence the money supply with it, then we have deflation and that can not be tolerated for long. Deflation will destroy the modern monetary system and, governments and the institutions with it. Therefore, the CBs have to do what ever it takes to prevent this, and if they see credit creation decrease and even look like it is going negative they will print big time (and direct that printing where ever necessary) to try and get credit/debt going again.

To understand why a decrease in credit creation is so deadly is to understand how money is created. Hint, the CBs don't create most of the money (only the cash component) they instead generally create cash reserves. It is the private banks who expand our money supply (97% of supply is private bank money. Also peasants are only allowed to use CB money in form of cash not electronic). In short if private bank money is not being created (through new debt) nobody will be able to pay the interest component because there is not enough money in the system to do so.

So, this pandemic is a deflationary event, either through illness or panic, doesn't matter which. Therefore the CBs need to start printing those reserves up pronto to counter any deflation (contraction in private credit).

We can agree to disagree.  I just don't see the obvious link that continued outrageous levels of money printing is an automatic result of this, and I do see an economic slowdown as a possibility to reign matters in a bit.  

Sure, I am not saying that the powers that be, CB et al are NOT going to completely stop acting irresponsibly and even giving money away to the rich, but seems to me that global events (such as a pandemic crisis) can also create corrective opportunities that are more responsible than what the CBs et al would otherwise attempt to cause regular peeps and even the chinese to bear costs of the various earlier irresponsible of the money printers.

Fair enough. All I'm saying is that I think the reason you can't see is because you probably don't know what money we actually use and how it is actually created.

The money printing already accelerated. Just off the top of my head, the U.S. had an emergency rate cut of .5 percent. China went nuts with rate cuts, stimulus and currency devaluation. Much more is most likely to come per Fed Funds rate futures projections and statements from various central banks themselves.
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March 09, 2020, 11:03:10 AM

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/airfreight-market-may-be-turning-corner-as-rates-climb

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[Chinese] factories are beginning to operate near full capacity

hum hummm
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March 09, 2020, 11:04:53 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Time for a new poll.

Also, the old one was flawed, as it made an implicit price assumption....didn't include an option for 'never see 10k again'
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March 09, 2020, 11:12:02 AM

Time for a new poll.

Also, the old one was flawed, as it made an implicit price assumption....didn't include an option for 'never see 10k again'

Bc to actually say never see 10K again, then it’s just not the thread for those that thinking that.... in a long term perspective
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March 09, 2020, 11:13:37 AM

incoming selling wave? time will tell....
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March 09, 2020, 11:16:13 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

incoming selling wave? time will tell....

At the moment where selling becomes very dumb.... only fools would be selling now
But.... the world is filled with fools
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March 09, 2020, 11:16:23 AM

Time for a new poll.

Also, the old one was flawed, as it made an implicit price assumption....didn't include an option for 'never see 10k again'

Bc to actually say never see 10K again, then it’s just not the thread for those that thinking that.... in a long term perspective

Why ?  Are you suggesting no-platforming certain views ?

So what is the thread about ?  There are always plenty of off-topic posts here.
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March 09, 2020, 11:17:28 AM

incoming selling wave? time will tell....

BTC very correlated with the share markets right now. I don't like this, but a bounce may be in order if FED comes out all guns blazing tonight.
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March 09, 2020, 11:19:23 AM

Surely the poll is about neutrality, and should not make implicit assumptions ?  Just pure logic.

It would also be interesting to see how many votes there were for 'never see 10k again'. Should be none, and that in itself is a valid indicator.
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March 09, 2020, 11:20:48 AM

Time for a new poll.

Also, the old one was flawed, as it made an implicit price assumption....didn't include an option for 'never see 10k again'

Bc to actually say never see 10K again, then it’s just not the thread for those that thinking that.... in a long term perspective

Why ?  Are you suggesting no-platforming certain views ?

So what is the thread about ?  There are always plenty of off-topic posts here.

The thread for long term bulls  Roll Eyes
For me all options and polls are aloud of course...  As everyone may have his opinion as well, just don’t let it be a fools one to say never crossing 10K again  Grin
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March 09, 2020, 11:21:12 AM

incoming selling wave? time will tell....

BTC very correlated with the share markets right now. I don't like this, but a bounce may be in order if FED comes out all guns blazing tonight.

well, i see this selling happening within the day. can't see any bounce at this stage. we hope for the best of course!
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March 09, 2020, 11:21:58 AM

Surely the poll is about neutrality, and should not make implicit assumptions ?  Just pure logic.

It would also be interesting to see how many votes there were for 'never see 10k again'. Should be none, and that in itself is a valid indicator.

It should be none, but always there will be haters that will vote for it..... not that it matters of course
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March 09, 2020, 11:24:03 AM

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All of us in January when we learned about corona virus...

https://twitter.com/panama_tj/status/1236793863127347200?s=21

VIDEO ATTACHED
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March 09, 2020, 11:33:05 AM
Merited by suchmoon (7), El duderino_ (2)

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1236778368533700609

Trump dropped a big cryptic hint about an unstoppable surprise coming. This was tweeted right after the dow futures opened and tanked.

Most likely he is on the phone with the Plunge Protection Team and the Fed and there is some massive money printing on the way.

Anyone who thinks Trump isnt going to attack these market sell offs with everything at his disposal is underestimating his ego and desire to be elected again.

62 days to the Halvening and all fundamentals are well and bullish.  Cool
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March 09, 2020, 11:36:04 AM

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1236778368533700609

Trump dropped a big cryptic hint about an unstoppable surprise coming. This was tweeted right after the dow futures opened and tanked.

Most likely he is on the phone with the Plunge Protection Team and the Fed and there is some massive money printing on the way.

Anyone who thinks Trump isnt going to attack these market sell offs with everything at his disposal is underestimating his ego and desire to be elected again.

62 days to the Halvening and all fundamentals are well and bullish.  Cool

Can't argue with that assessment.
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