Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

bla bla bla big words

bla bla bla I'm so smart

bla bla bla reference my own articles

I see that you are not a fan.

Personally, I did not see the need for a prediction adjustment from 55K to 288K since we are not even close to 55K yet.
I understand that this model makes prior numbers even better fit, but I feel that it is a bit premature in the cycle.
I looked at TA graphs and they all look terrible, recent rally non-withstanding.
That said, when, exactly, bitcoin followed TA closely (probably never)?
Not buying 50K btc calls yet 

Fuk that Plan B shithead, he was yelling how the halfing was priced in for the last 6 months.

He is off his rocker and manipulating people.

I think that you, perhaps, mix him up with someone else.

[Hueristic]

bla bla bla big words

bla bla bla I'm so smart

bla bla bla reference my own articles

I see that you are not a fan.

Personally, I did not see the need for a prediction adjustment from 55K to 288K since we are not even close to 55K yet.
I understand that this model makes prior numbers even better fit, but I feel that it is a bit premature in the cycle.
I looked at TA graphs and they all look terrible, recent rally non-withstanding.
That said, when, exactly, bitcoin followed TA closely (probably never)?
Not buying 50K btc calls yet 

Fuk that Plan B shithead, he was yelling how the halfing was priced in for the last 6 months.

He is off his rocker and manipulating people.

I think that you, perhaps, mix him up with someone else.

Possible but I thought I saw people posting tweets fro him 6 months ago saying it was priced in.

I may be wrong, my memory is not the best these days.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

$7750

Attack on $8000?

[Hueristic]

Why do I always lose my patience when I am that close! I mean say a table pays top 4, I end up at the 5th position. It happened with me 3/4 times or more than that I guess. Only once made it to the top and it was in one of the bitcointalk tournament tourney.

I can assure that I do not play that bad at all. Any tips for this noob?

I have never played online so you should ask Mic for those recommendations.

[Toxic2040]

can I share my Technical Analysis on crypto currency. I hope that It will be interesting and beneficial for all.

Yes, yes you can. We are mostly harmless in these parts.



-------

I never had this experience of playing poker in real life with mates of in the casino. In fact my poker career is only 6 weeks old LOL

Why do I always lose my patience when I am that close! I mean say a table pays top 4, I end up at the 5th position. It happened with me 3/4 times or more than that I guess. Only once made it to the top and it was in one of the bitcointalk tournament tourney.

I can assure that I do not play that bad at all. Any tips for this noob?

Never bet a inside straight draw.

In all seriousness...there are many playing styles..just have to find what fit yours. I personally prefer a passive aggressive stance. Also..most people in tournaments dont fold enough imo. Its all about chip management to get past the bubble.

[serveria.com]

bla bla bla big words

bla bla bla I'm so smart

bla bla bla reference my own articles

I see that you are not a fan.

Personally, I did not see the need for a prediction adjustment from 55K to 288K since we are not even close to 55K yet.
I understand that this model makes prior numbers even better fit, but I feel that it is a bit premature in the cycle.
I looked at TA graphs and they all look terrible, recent rally non-withstanding.
That said, when, exactly, bitcoin followed TA closely (probably never)?
Not buying 50K btc calls yet 

Fuk that Plan B shithead, he was yelling how the halfing was priced in for the last 6 months.

He is off his rocker and manipulating people.

I think that you, perhaps, mix him up with someone else.

Possible but I thought I saw people posting tweets fro him 6 months ago saying it was priced in.

I may be wrong, my memory is not the best these days.

Sounds more like that Masterluc dipshit... Plan B is uberbullish normally 

[Biodom]

Anybody watching the "Westworld"?
At first, liked the third season better than the second, but now kind of lost the plot again with all those alt realities, all powerful AIs, etc, etc.
You cannot say who is who anymore and where they're really at, which kind of makes the plot either meaningless or too complex.
Aaron Paul and a few ladies (Wood, Newton, Thompson) look sharp, but the script is weak, IMHO.

...btc is unaffected, but it is kind of boring in the last 24hr.

[JSRAW]

^^ Loved the first season, after that meh...

bla bla bla big words

bla bla bla I'm so smart

bla bla bla reference my own articles

I see that you are not a fan.

Personally, I did not see the need for a prediction adjustment from 55K to 288K since we are not even close to 55K yet.
I understand that this model makes prior numbers even better fit, but I feel that it is a bit premature in the cycle.
I looked at TA graphs and they all look terrible, recent rally non-withstanding.
That said, when, exactly, bitcoin followed TA closely (probably never)?
Not buying 50K btc calls yet  

Fuk that Plan B shithead, he was yelling how the halfing was priced in for the last 6 months.

He is off his rocker and manipulating people.

I think that you, perhaps, mix him up with someone else.

Possible but I thought I saw people posting tweets fro him 6 months ago saying it was priced in.

I may be wrong, my memory is not the best these days.

Its not fair sir..
Hold your ground for at least 2-3 replies... otherwise its no fun  

~snip~

So, Mrs still away?

Is it that obvious?  Ya, there's no triple fisting drinks when shes around. But I mean, a guys gotta know what does and does not work right? And I'm learning, clearly the untouched thermos of green tea was excessive.

Well, i remember reading your airport story so ....

[serveria.com]

$7750

Attack on $8000?

Damn, if somebody would have told me that we'll be anticipating and excited to see 8k two weeks before the halving some 3-6 months ago I'd be very surprised...

[El duderino_]

$7750

Attack on $8000?

Busy.... as the dude was for the last 40-ish minutes  

[Biodom]

$7750

Attack on $8000?

Busy.... as the dude was for the last 40-ish minutes  

High five!

[El duderino_]

$7750

Attack on $8000?

Busy.... as the dude was for the last 40-ish minutes  

High five!

Ready to HODLsleep .....  and no blue nuts for me

[JayJuanGee]

That guy's rep will either be raised to guru status or he'll be completely humiliated, it all depends on this next halving. I understand why he doesn't use his real name, same reason most here don't probably, but it doesn't help his credibility when trying to publish scientific articles. This is the kind of stuff that needs to be peer reviewed. And leave off the price predictions. That said, it sure is a fun bit of hopium and it's hard not to get excited thinking about it.

I doubt that it is a do or die scenario...

The model has already contributed to the space, but it is not exactly created from scratch, but instead builds on the work of others, including building on the work in the bitcoin standard, which was also far from original work.  We had models like this from the beginning and they are being tweaked and improved upon on a regular basis, and no model is going to be 100% accurate in terms of predicting the future even though it can attempt to be accurate in showing and explaining the past.

So ultimately any model, whether talking about stock to flow or other variations can be used for descriptive, explanatory and predictive purposes and it tends to be good to adjust them based on new data.... for example, if some exogenous factors play out, then maybe the model will need to be shifted up or down in order to account for some factors that were a bit beyond either past experiences or expectations.  

His work has been reviewed by a lot of people including some mathematics oriented people, and I believe that I even posted a link to a podcast interview with one guy who spent a great amount of time trying to prove the model to be wrong..... I can look for that link, if you are interested.. I think it was on the Stephan Livera podcast, but it may have been a different one.

Edit:

I found the podcast with Stephen Livera that happened on March 3.. with Nick

https://overcast.fm/+OBZlI-5Nk

Then I found another interview with Pomp and PlanB on March 10

https://overcast.fm/+OWGw1d81w

[Biodom]

A game...PlanB suggests that btc will be at around $288K somewhere between 2020 and 2024, maybe more later, but let's focus on the $288K number.
Considering that it WOULD happen, what would be the $$ amount that you might accept right now for, say, 20% of your btc without the ability to re-buy btc or other crypto again until at least 2 years later (this condition is needed for an obvious reason):
a. 30K
b. 60K
c. 100K
d. 150K
e. 288K (that would be unrealistic, but, whatever)

My choice:
c. 100K

[Ibian]

Anybody watching the "Westworld"?
At first, liked the third season better than the second, but now kind of lost the plot again with all those alt realities, all powerful AIs, etc, etc.
You cannot say who is who anymore and where they're really at, which kind of makes the plot either meaningless or too complex.
Aaron Paul and a few ladies (Wood, Newton, Thompson) look sharp, but the script is weak, IMHO.

...btc is unaffected, but it is kind of boring in the last 24hr.

It was great until they decided to center the entire show around the feminist bots. Kind of like game of thrones, except they tanked way earlier in the show.

AI bots is a crapshoot anyway. Better to build catgirls.

[Ibian]

A game...PlanB suggests that btc will be at around $288K somewhere between 2020 and 2024, maybe more later, but let's focus on the $288K number.
Considering that it WOULD happen, what would be the $$ amount that you might accept right now for, say, 20% your btc without the ability to re-buy btc or other crypto again until at least 2 years later (this condition is needed for an obvious reason):
a. 30K
b. 60K
c. 100K
c. 150K
d. 288K (that would be unrealistic, but, whatever)

My choice:
c. 100K

I only hodl a mere hundredth of a corn. I will reluctantly sell it for a mere 30k. This is a good deal as you can see, surely.

[JayJuanGee]

can I share my Technical Analysis on crypto currency. I hope that It will be interesting and beneficial for all.

No.

[Hueristic]

^^ Loved the first season, after that meh...

Possible but I thought I saw people posting tweets fro him 6 months ago saying it was priced in.

I may be wrong, my memory is not the best these days.

Its not fair sir..
Hold your ground for at least 2-3 replies... otherwise its no fun  

Hah, yeah the true translation is that I'm just to lazy to go back and try to find those tweets.
I'm pretty sure they exist.

[JimboToronto]

can I share my Technical Analysis on crypto currency. I hope that It will be interesting and beneficial for all.

There's a place to discuss crypto currency speculation:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=224.0

Around here we discuss Bitcoin, not "crypto".

[Hueristic]

Anybody watching the "Westworld"?
At first, liked the third season better than the second, but now kind of lost the plot again with all those alt realities, all powerful AIs, etc, etc.
You cannot say who is who anymore and where they're really at, which kind of makes the plot either meaningless or too complex.
Aaron Paul and a few ladies (Wood, Newton, Thompson) look sharp, but the script is weak, IMHO.

...btc is unaffected, but it is kind of boring in the last 24hr.

Loved the first season, liked the second season and am persevering through the third.