Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Jeremy Franklin]

Hey boys, happing halving! See you 2024 for 6-digit prices. Happy HODLing!  

[HairyMaclairy]

Everyone is saying by 2023 we will be rich.

We will be rich by 2021. By 2023 we will be filthy rich. 

Nobody knows what will happen

Yes we do !

[600watt]

Everyone is saying by 2023 we will be rich.

We will be rich by 2021. By 2023 we will be filthy rich. 

[img]https://i.pinimg.com/originals/de/2c/86/de2c866545ec46df289b2f4957d1dimg]

Nobody knows what will happen

Yes we do !

confirmed.

long time no see, mate. 

[Spaceman_Spiff_Original]

Happy Halving Hombres !

[OutOfMemory]

OY

I'm not a native speaker, as you know.
My first long-time association of the term "gnarly" is Bon Scott's voice, especially on this track.
More than just occasionally when i read "gnarly", i have flicks of memories of the song and/or his voice.

Legends.
I couldn't believe that Axl Rose is the lead singer of ACDC now.
Gotta have to give this a listen, though  

[HairyMaclairy]

Everyone is saying by 2023 we will be rich.

We will be rich by 2021. By 2023 we will be filthy rich. 

[img]https://i.pinimg.com/originals/de/2c/86/de2c866545ec46df289b2f4957d1dimg]

Nobody knows what will happen

Yes we do !

confirmed.

long time no see, mate. 

I’m not half the man I used to be

[JimboToronto]

Everyone is saying by 2023 we will be rich.

We will be rich by 2021. By 2023 we will be filthy rich.  

Nobody knows what will happen

Yes we do !

Of course we do.

But what if we're already rich?

[d_eddie]

10k and back, I've seen it too. Haven't read up much or written at all. It will get better.

[DaRude]

It appears there's about 3300metric tons of gold mined each year, that translates to about global supply of 9metric tons/per day. In comparison, if you have BTC3.5 in about 30yrs you'll own daily global supply of BTC.

[Hueristic]

Everyone is saying by 2023 we will be rich.

We will be rich by 2021. By 2023 we will be filthy rich.  

Nobody knows what will happen

Yes we do !

Of course we do.

But what if we're already rich?

Anyone that can manage the time out of life to hang out here and post all day is already rich.

[JimboToronto]

Anyone that can manage the time out of life to hang out here and post all day is already rich.

Absolutely.

Bitcoin (and other money) and material goodies are nice but real wealth is our health, freedom, friends and family.

Having all of the above really rocks though.

Money doesn't buy everything, but what it doesn't buy is easier to get if you do have money.

[d_eddie]

At the risk that is has already been posted (extremely long read): “An Open Letter to Ray Dalio re: Bitcoin” by Robert Breedlove https://link.medium.com/PWjTIRyld6

You deserve an “F” for your assessment of Bitcoin’s significance and future prospects. Although there are very few of us, everyone who has the requisite depth of understanding in the fields of computer science, monetary history, game theory, economics, and mathematics,

Nice read, but I don't think Mr. Breedlove can grade Dalio. Much less mete out F's.

as more network participation exponentially increases the number of possible connections. A simple example of this is the telephone: with two phones in existence, only 1 connection is possible; with five phones in the network, the number of connections jumps to 10; and with twelve networked phones, the number of connections increases exponentially again to 66, and so on. (see Metcalfe’s Law for a directional explanation of this network effect dynamic):

This guy doesn't know the difference between quadratic and exponential. The number of pairwise connections between n users is n (n-1) / 2 = (n^2 - n)/2. A simple exponential growth that goes from 1 to 10 connections as n goes from 2 to 5 users would get to 1000 by the time n reaches 12 users - not 66.

Given his poor understanding of college mathematics, the likeliness of him grasping even intermediate game theory appears slim. I guess "computer science" could still be within his reach, as long as he means coding. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for him to deliver breakthroughs in, say, computability theory or zero knowledge proofs.

I apologize for the intolerant tone, but people abusing the term "exponential" without having a clue is one of my pet peeves.

[sirazimuth]

.....
Anyone that can manage the time out of life to hang out here and post all day is already rich.

idk man....there was a flat earth nutter and a couple of lunatics that hang out on this
forum 24/7 a couple of blocks over and generate a plethora of drivel threads.
I rather doubt they are rich..... (though rich in ignorance maybe...)

[Icygreen]

Very fitting.

The final Bitcoin block with a subsidy of 12.5 BTC was mined by
@f2pool_official
 and contained the following message in its coinbase transaction:

FishNYTimes 09/Apr/2020 With $2.3T Injection, Fed's Plan Far Exceeds 2008 Rescue

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1259929075902222345

[JayJuanGee]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HsW7TD1pLiKr6cdT5SpBETIFKF-m-F_x0KvjMHvp-hY/edit#gid=0



Imagine next halving

HODL!
Source: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5247696.0

Very nice.

The highest price I've ever paid for BTC was $8200 (and the lowest was about $200). I don't think I've ever dropped below my investment capital. What am I saying... I've never dropped below 3x of my investment capital. Or maybe 5x. I can't even remember.

Whatever happens, it's a win-win for most of us HoDLers. Actually, for all of us!

I can't begin to imagine what that empty cell will contain in 4 years' time...

HoDL.

If any of us has a long enough timeline to be in bitcoin or intending to still be accumulating in bitcoin, then likely we will still end up buying BTC at various times and maybe even higher prices along the road, and surely I have a decent number of BTC purchases that go all the way up close to $19k, but sure, maybe some of those purchases could be considered NOT to count, if I had only been using proceeds from BTC sales at higher prices to make those purchases.

And, gosh, we are coming upon 2.5 years since that latest high (ATH).... time flies when you are having fun, and those 4 year snapshots remain amazing in terms of continuing to go up.... even though it also seems reasonable that the multiple of how much BTC price is able to expand is likely to not be as much as the previous 4 years.  The multiple in 2016 was 51x, but the multiple in this year was only about 12.5x.........  So, getting another 10x for the price at the time of the next halvening might be difficult, even though surely I would not rule out something in the ballpark of 5x-8x..

I know, I might be considered a party poop.... but still will be curious to see where we are at for that next box.

Everyone is saying by 2023 we will be rich.

We will be rich by 2021. By 2023 we will be filthy rich.  

I suppose that rich or filthy rich could happen too, but those are likely referring to the top after the next UP movement which could be 10x to 30x to 50x from here.  

When are you saying that rich or filthy rich kicks in, serveria?

Everyone is saying by 2023 we will be rich.

We will be rich by 2021. By 2023 we will be filthy rich. 

Nobody knows what will happen

That is why we are speculating.  Of course, the future is not known, but we still can assign probabilities to various possible outcomes rather than either just throwing up our hands or some kind of idiotic claim that assigns equal probabilities to all possible outcome - which surely would be a brainless kind of speculation.

[Hueristic]

.....
Anyone that can manage the time out of life to hang out here and post all day is already rich.

idk man....there was a flat earth nutter and a couple of lunatics that hang out on this
forum 24/7 a couple of blocks over and generate a plethora of drivel threads.
I rather doubt they are rich..... (though rich in ignorance maybe...)

Rich in the most important commodity, time. The most ignorant are unfortunately the richest as they can afford their ignorance. If you think this is untrue then you need to take a look around.

...and it is sickening

[vapourminer]

.....
Anyone that can manage the time out of life to hang out here and post all day is already rich.

idk man....there was a flat earth nutter and a couple of lunatics that hang out on this
forum 24/7 a couple of blocks over and generate a plethora of drivel threads.
I rather doubt they are rich..... (though rich in ignorance maybe...)

the group home they live in has good internet and some spare PCs, thats all

[JayJuanGee]

10k and back, I've seen it too. Haven't read up much or written at all. It will get better.

What are you doing?

Totally just long? 

No more taking trading positions?

Do you at least play the BIGGER swings.. or you just in HODL status?

[AlcoHoDL]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HsW7TD1pLiKr6cdT5SpBETIFKF-m-F_x0KvjMHvp-hY/edit#gid=0



Imagine next halving

HODL!
Source: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5247696.0

Very nice.

The highest price I've ever paid for BTC was $8200 (and the lowest was about $200). I don't think I've ever dropped below my investment capital. What am I saying... I've never dropped below 3x of my investment capital. Or maybe 5x. I can't even remember.

Whatever happens, it's a win-win for most of us HoDLers. Actually, for all of us!

I can't begin to imagine what that empty cell will contain in 4 years' time...

HoDL.

If any of us has a long enough timeline to be in bitcoin or intending to still be accumulating in bitcoin, then likely we will still end up buying BTC at various times and maybe even higher prices along the road, and surely I have a decent number of BTC purchases that go all the way up close to $19k, but sure, maybe some of those purchases could be considered NOT to count, if I had only been using proceeds from BTC sales at higher prices to make those purchases.

And, gosh, we are coming upon 2.5 years since that latest high (ATH).... time flies when you are having fun, and those 4 year snapshots remain amazing in terms of continuing to go up.... even though it also seems reasonable that the multiple of how much BTC price is able to expand is likely to not be as much as the previous 4 years.  The multiple in 2016 was 51x, but the multiple in this year was only about 12.5x.........  So, getting another 10x for the price at the time of the next halvening might be difficult, even though surely I would not rule out something in the ballpark of 5x-8x..

I know, I might be considered a party poop.... but still will be curious to see where we are at for that next box.

You know, right after I posted the message you're quoting, I did exactly the calculation you did, but didn't update the post. I'm glad another WO had a similar thought. If the analogy remains constant, we'll end up with around 12.5 * 12.5 / 51 * <current price> = $26000. Not a large amount for 2024. It's still a decent value, but it won't give me "fcuk you" rich status. I'd like to think that the current value of $8.5k is somewhat suppressed by the long bear market, and is more of an outlier, so, in that sense, there is some degree of daydreaming/hoping for $50k, or even $100k at the time of the 2024 Halving, and this gives us (me) something to look forward to. Even at $26k, it's still by far the best investment I've ever made, so, my statement of a win-win for all is probably true, except perhaps for our fellow, fallen WO, mindrust, who, I'm sorry to say, will probably never be able to buy back without a loss, something that should teach us all that the SELL button is a button that should rarely be pressed, and only for very good reason, and never when we are too emotional.

Phew, that was a long sentence, sorry, I just got out of bed to check something (not the price, though I did check it), and I'm kind of half asleep right now...which is probably rather obvious from the way I say/type things...

Good night, Jay, and all..........

[marcus_of_augustus]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HsW7TD1pLiKr6cdT5SpBETIFKF-m-F_x0KvjMHvp-hY/edit#gid=0



Imagine next halving

HODL!
Source: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5247696.0

.... these numbers are interesting but must remember it is daily snapshotted and we all know how volatile bitcoin price has been, still is. If you take a little close look to figure on the next halving price you'll notice the first halving price ($13) is quite close to single figures. Halving II price ($613) is squarely in the middle of 3 figures and Halving III price ($8,600) is actually quite close to 5 figures, we we're at 5 figures only the other day. So single figures, 3 figures and 5 figures ... 1, 3, 5, ... would be interesting to see the moving average prices at halvings to smooth out some of the slop.

It's possible we could be at 7 figures, or near there by the Halving IV ...